Making those tough lineup decisions, week over week, can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process. When you're torn between two similar players, and simply don't know which of them to start, my advice is to start the player with the superior matchup.
Ah, but exactly how does one determine the best (and worst) weekly NFL matchups?
The "Matchups Map" each week provides a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups, ranking all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying upon seasonal totals, in this space we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule that it has faced. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
For Week 5, these maps include two measures: The first, "Rk," is my personal ranking of the matchup; the second, "Adj. FPA," reflects how far above or below players' weekly PPR fantasy point averages that defense has held opponents at that position thus far in 2022. Remember, teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team's personnel at that position.
A couple of caveats before we start: As the 2022 seasonal sample is only a four-week, smaller-than-usual sample, I'm still providing my personal ranking ("Rk"), which might not fall perfectly in line with the 2022 data ("Adj. FPA"). Four weeks doesn't provide an ideal snapshot of the strength of a matchup. Once five weeks are in the books, matchups will be ranked by Adj. FPA.
Additionally, matchups are only one ingredient to the lineup-setting process, as not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my -- and ESPN fantasy staff's -- most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Matchups highlight
Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (against Falcons)
After a slow start, largely driven by matchups and injuries to his receiving personnel, Brady rebounded in a big way in Week 4, dropping 385 yards, three touchdowns and 25.40 fantasy points on the Chiefs, every last one of them on throws. Now he faces a Falcons team that, despite a pair of talented cornerbacks (Casey Hayward, A.J. Terrell), has performed well below-average against opposing quarterbacks. Jameis Winston (Week 1) and Geno Smith (Week 3) each passed for a pair of touchdowns against this defense. Brady also has a tremendous history against the Falcons. He has averaged 23.6 fantasy points per game in nine career games against them.
Others to like
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (at Ravens) Burrow has also heated up after a relatively slow start to the season and now he faces a Ravens defense that has allowed a fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks.
Carson Wentz, Washington Commanders (against Titans) Wentz has largely played into his matchups, but this is a good one against a Titans defense that has allowed the opponents to score the second-most fantasy points on passing attempts.
Matchup to avoid
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (versus Cowboys). Stafford's season hasn't gone anywhere near as smoothly as 2021, but it doesn't help that two of his first four games came against defenses ranked among my top three in the chart below (7.80 fantasy points against the Bills in Week 1 and 6.76 against the 49ers in Week 4). Unfortunately, he draws another brutal matchup against the Cowboys, who have made Brady (10.38 points, Week 1), Burrow (16.56, Week 2) and Wentz (7.30, Week 4) all look human. Dallas' strength is generating turnovers -- they already have four interceptions this year after pacing the league with 26 last season. Stafford has had issues in that department so far and has a league-leading six interceptions to date.
Running backs
Matchups highlight
Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots (against Lions)
It's easy to make the argument that the Lions present the best all-around matchup for opposing offenses. They are the only defense with at least two Adjusted Fantasy Points Added against all four skill positions through four weeks. They've been especially susceptible to running backs, allowing the second-most PPR fantasy points (122.7) and the most per rushing attempt to the position (1.05). So why does Stevenson have an advantage and not Damien Harris? If the Brian Hoyer-led Patriots offense struggles to keep up on the scoreboard with a Lions offense that has been pretty good when healthy, Stevenson is substantially more involved in the passing game and has more PPR fantasy points than Harris over the past two weeks (33.0 to 28.0).
Others to like
Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans (at Jaguars). Pierce has been sensational through the first quarter of the season and now he matches up with Jaguars' defense that has struggled to contain running backs.
James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars (versus Texans). Robinson has scored a touchdown and had at least 15.9 PPR fantasy points in two of his past three games against the Texans, one of the league's worst rush defenses.
Matchup to avoid
Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys (at Rams)
Elliott has predictably struggled while Dak Prescott has been absent, totaling 30.5 PPR fantasy points over the past three weeks despite averaging 13 more offensive snaps and six more touches than Tony Pollard. Perhaps that improves once Prescott returns -- Elliott has averaged 0.22 more points per touch in his career when Prescott is on the field -- but this week brings both another week of Cooper Rush and a brutal matchup. The Rams, while helped by an easy schedule, have dominated opposing running backs, allowing 25.5 fewer PPR fantasy points than any other team and the fewest points per carry (0.29).
Wide receivers
Matchups highlight
Robert Woods, Tennessee Titans (at Commanders)
Woods has enjoyed decent enough stat lines the past two weeks and finds himself available in nearly one-third of ESPN leagues. Additionally, Treylon Burks is expected to be out this week due to turf toe, assuring an increased target share for Woods against a slow-starting Commanders secondary. The Commanders have allowed five different wide receivers score at least 17.5 PPR fantasy points against them over the past four weeks, and while most of them typically ran a majority of their routes from the slot, Woods does move around the formation. But it's not like this defense has fared much better against perimeter receivers (an additional three perimeter receivers scored at least 10.4 points).
Others to like
Curtis Samuel and Josh Doctson, Washington Commanders (against Titans) could be big factors against a Titans defense that has allowed an NFL-high 2.11 PPR fantasy points per target.
Noah Brown and/or Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys (at Rams). Brown and Gallup match up well against a Rams defense that has allowed 14.2 Adjusted Fantasy Points added to opposing wide receivers and nearly seven Adjusted FPA to opposing non-WR1s, the most in the league. Keep tabs on Brown's status, as Gallup could be a big-time value play if Brown is sidelined.
Matchup to avoid
Marquise Brown, Arizona Cardinals (against Eagles). Darius Slay was limited to only three defensive snaps due to injury in Week 4, but he should be available to play this week. The Eagles' defense held the Jaguars' wide receivers to a combined 29.3 PPR fantasy points on 17 targets despite Slay's absence. If he's out there, he'll almost assuredly see the majority of his coverage against Brown, who would then be facing his first tough matchup of 2022. Even if Slay is not covering Brown, James Bradberry represents a nearly-as-tough one-on-one matchup. Remember this is the same Eagles' secondary that held Justin Jefferson to only 10.8 PPR fantasy points in Week 2.
Tight ends
Matchups highlight
Matchups highlight: Tyler Conklin, New York Jets (against Dolphins). Conklin has eclipsed 10 PPR fantasy points in 3-of-4 games, and enters Week 5 the eighth-ranked tight end with 46.2 points scored. Despite that, Conklin finds himself available in roughly 60% of ESPN leagues, making him one of the week's best add-and-starts. While the Dolphins' secondary has improved its play since its 42-38 barnburner, much of that was the performance by the cornerbacks, whereas the remainder of their defense afforded 11.7 points on four targets to Hayden Hurst in Week 4. Conklin could sneak in a few catches while Xavien Howard and Nik Needham have their hands full with Elijah Moore and Garrett Wilson.
Others to like
Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons (at Buccaneers). Pitts has endured a disappointing season but the Buccaneers' defense has struggled against opposing tight ends this season.
Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles (at Cardinals). Goedert is riding a streak of three straight games with at least 11.6 PPR fantasy points and the Cardinals have allowed the fifth-most 2.17 PPR fantasy points per target to tight ends.
Matchup to avoid
Pat Freiermuth, Steelers (at Bills). Kenny Pickett's installation at quarterback might indeed ignite a spark on the Steelers' offense. Pickett should take more chances and therefore enhance the touchdown-scoring potential of players like Freiermuth. Still, growing pains are to be expected and this is a brutal matchup for a rookie trying to gain experience. The Bills have been by far the toughest defense against quarterbacks and tight ends thus far, most notably holding Mark Andrews to 3.5 PPR fantasy points in Week 4. Freiermuth is a touchdown-dependent, borderline TE1/2.