Welcome to the Week 4 Fantasy Football Playbook!
This will be your guide to the week's slate of NFL games, featuring score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for both season-long and DFS leagues. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in both raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to possible updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
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Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints
Lineup locks: Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson
Kirk Cousins and Jameis Winston are both outside the top 12 in fantasy points and neither is a recommended streamer in London this week.
Cook (shoulder) seems likely to play this week, but if he's out, Alexander Mattison leaps into the RB1 discussion. Mattison was fantasy's top-scoring RB during the four weeks Cook was sidelined in 2021.
Chris Olave leads all wide receivers in air yards and sits no lower than 20th in routes, targets, receptions and yards. He's trending toward the WR2 discussion. Michael Thomas has three touchdowns this season and should be in lineups when active, but he appears as doubtful because of a toe injury. Jarvis Landry (foot) is also a bit beat-up, but is expected to play. He already has a 100-yard game this season and will be a viable flex option if Thomas is sidelined.
Adam Thielen found the end zone in Week 3, but he's yet to clear 61 yards in any game. Consider him to be a flex option.
Irv Smith Jr. has been targeted 13 times during Minnesota's last two outings, but he's yet to clear 36 yards in a game. He's a midrange TE2. Meanwhile, Juwan Johnson's upward trend took a big hit after he was held without a catch on one target in Week 3.
Over/Under: 42.6 (13th highest in Week 4)
Win Probability: Saints 53% (11th highest in Week 4)
Cleveland Browns @ Atlanta Falcons
Lineup locks: Nick Chubb, Kyle Pitts
Marcus Mariota sits 13th in QB fantasy points, having tossed three touchdowns and run for two more during Weeks 1-3. He's a streaming option this week against a Cleveland defense that has allowed the 10th-most QB fantasy points despite facing Joe Flacco, Baker Mayfield and Mitch Trubisky.
Cordarrelle Patterson has opened the season with a pair of top-six fantasy outings, but also a 4.1-point effort in Week 2. The good news is that he's third in the NFL in rushing yards (302), but the concern is that he's 43rd among backs in receptions (four). Until the receiving work picks back up, he's best viewed as a RB2.
Kareem Hunt has fallen just short of 10 fantasy points in back-to-back games after his top-five showing in Week 1. He's handled exactly 15 touches in all three games and is a solid flex.
Amari Cooper is closing in on lineup-lock status after posting 9-101-1 and 7-101-1 receiving lines on a total of 21 targets over the last two weeks. He'll face a Falcons defense that has allowed a league-high six scores to opposing wide receivers. He's a fine WR2. The same goes for Drake London, who sits 14th in fantasy points and is handling a massive 33% target share.
Mark Andrews was the only tight end with more fantasy points than David Njoku last week. Njoku caught a career-high nine of his 10 targets for 89 yards and a score. He's still a bit risky considering he had totaled only 39 yards on six targets during Weeks 1-2, but this is a good spot against an Atlanta defense that has allowed the second-most TE fantasy points.
Over/Under: 48.5 (4th highest)
Win Probability: Browns 51% (15th highest)
Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Stefon Diggs, Mark Andrews
Devin Singletary played on a season-high 74% of offensive snaps in Week 3, which allowed him nine carries (also a season high) and a career-best 12 targets. Singletary's underwhelming Week 1-2 usage is a concern, but last week's top-five fantasy outing locks him into the fringe RB2 mix.
J.K. Dobbins made his 2022 debut on Sunday and played on 44% of the snaps, soaking up seven carries and a pair of targets. He's best left on benches against a Buffalo defense allowing the fourth-fewest RB fantasy points.
Gabe Davis returned to action in Week 3 and played on 86 snaps -- the eighth-most by any wide receiver in a non-OT game since 2000. Davis was held to 37 yards on six catches, but we saw his upside in Week 1 (4-88-1) and he is an every-down player in Buffalo's elite offense. Davis is a fine WR3. Isaiah McKenzie had a big Week 3 (7-76-1), but that was after he totaled 56 yards on six targets during Weeks 1-2. You likely have a better flex option.
Rashod Bateman has yet to clear seven targets or four catches in any game, but he has 59-plus yards in all three outings, as well as a pair of touchdowns. He's a WR3 against Buffalo's beat-up secondary.
Dawson Knox has managed only 71 yards and zero trips to the end zone on 11 targets this season and belongs on benches.
Over/Under: 52.6 (Highest)
Win Probability: Bills 64% (5th highest)
Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys
Lineup locks: Antonio Gibson, CeeDee Lamb, Curtis Samuel, Terry McLaurin
Carson Wentz (predictably) fell back to earth in his first tough matchup of the season and is not an ideal streaming option against Dallas in Week 4.
Ezekiel Elliott ranks 15th in carries, 55th in receptions, 35th in yards and 39th in fantasy points among running backs. He's no longer a lineup lock, but you're likely still starting him as a RB2/flex. Running mate Tony Pollard is outplaying Elliott, but he has nine fewer touches and is no more than a low-ceiling flex.
J.D. McKissic has 16 catches, but has yet to reach 10 rushing yards in any game. He's a low-ceiling deep-league flex option.
Jahan Dotson saw a career-high eight targets in Week 3, but converted them into just 10 yards. He has already scored three touchdowns, but remains a tough sell as a flex with McLaurin and Samuel ahead of him in the WR pecking order.
Michael Gallup is likely to be limited if he's activated this week and should be on benches. Only consider Noah Brown for a flex spot if Gallup remains sidelined.
Dalton Schultz has 80 yards in two games and is a fringe TE1 if he's back from injury this week. Meanwhile, Logan Thomas hit a season low with three targets last week, and his 8-87-1 receiving line for the season tells us he's no more than a midrange TE2 right now.
Over/Under: 41.7 (15th highest)
Win Probability: Cowboys 53% (12th highest)
Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions
Lineup locks: Amon-Ra St. Brown
Jared Goff's ceiling remains limited by his lack of rushing (six carries, 15 yards), but he ranks fifth in the league in passing TDs (7) and Seattle has allowed a league-worst 8.8 yards per pass attempt. Goff is a streaming option.
Geno Smith has a pair of top-15 fantasy outings and is facing a Detroit defense that has allowed the second-most QB fantasy points. He's also a streaming option, if you're in a tough spot.
D'Andre Swift is expected to miss a game or two, which positions Jamaal Williams as a solid RB2. Even with Swift in the mix, Williams has had 197 yards and a RB-high four touchdowns on only 47 touches this season.
Rashaad Penny continues to work in a three-man committee and has yet to provide a weekly fantasy finish better than 35th. He's no more than a deep-league flex, although Detroit has allowed the most touchdowns and fantasy points to running backs this season.
DJ Chark and Josh Reynolds should only be considered for flex spots if St. Brown (ankle) is out this week.
Tyler Lockett is back in the WR2/3 mix after consecutive games with 11 targets, nine catches and 76-plus yards. Detroit hasn't been good slowing wide receivers, but DK Metcalf is a decent bet for Jeff Okudah shadow coverage, which makes him more of a WR3 play this week.
T.J. Hockenson has had either seven targets or a touchdown in all three games thus far, but has yet to clear 38 yards in any of them. Nevertheless, he's still in the TE1 mix.
Over/Under: 49.6 (2nd highest)
Win Probability: Lions 69% (2nd highest)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans
Lineup locks: Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen
Dameon Pierce has handled 35 out of Houston's 38 RB carries over the last two weeks. He's lacking passing-down opportunities (only four targets during the span), but 16-plus touches and 77-plus yards in back-to-back games is enough to cement him in the RB2/flex mix -- especially against a Chargers defense which is allowing the second-most RB fantasy points over expected. Rex Burkhead (three carries, eight targets over the last two weeks) is no longer a viable flex.
Brandin Cooks is handling a career-high 30% target share, but he's turned those 31 looks (9th most) into an ugly 13-158-0 receiving line. The slow start makes him risky, but the heavy volume suggests that better days are ahead. He's still in the WR2 discussion.
Mike Williams has now scored in back-to-back games, although he's been held under 20 receiving yards in two out of three outings this season. He remains a boom/bust WR3. Joshua Palmer has 17 targets and 28.9 fantasy points during Allen's two missed games, but he'll only be a viable fantasy starter if Allen remains out.
Gerald Everett had a big Week 2 (71 yards on 10 targets), but he was held to five or fewer targets in the other two games. He's a good TE2.
Over/Under: 42.8 (12th highest)
Win Probability: Chargers 76% (Highest)
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, Derrick Henry, Michael Pittman Jr.
Nyheim Hines has seen either five or six targets in all three games, but he's yet to clear 54 scrimmage yards in a single contest, nor has he scored a touchdown. He's not an ideal flex.
Robert Woods "exploded" for 85 yards on nine targets last week, but that's after he totaled 52 yards on six targets during Weeks 1-2. We need another big-target game before we can consider him for a flex spot -- and that may not come against a good Colts secondary this week. Treylon Burks saw a career-low two targets, but also played on a career-high 67% of snaps in Week 3. We need to see more than 4.3 targets per game if we're going to slot him in as a flex.
Alec Pierce (61 yards on five targets in Week 3) should be on benches.
Over/Under: 44.6 (10th highest)
Win Probability: Colts 60% (6th highest)
Chicago Bears @ New York Giants
Lineup locks: Saquon Barkley
Daniel Jones has yet to deliver a top-15 fantasy outing this season and is not a recommended streaming option this week in what projects to be a low-volume, low-scoring affair.
David Montgomery (ankle) seems likely to miss this week's game, but if he plays, he remains a solid RB2. If he's sidelined, Khalil Herbert should be in lineups. Herbert was fantasy's top-scoring RB in Week 3, totaling 169 yards and a pair of scores on 22 touches. He had at least 18 touches in all four games that Montgomery missed in 2021, averaging 97 yards per game during the span. The Giants have allowed the most RB fantasy points over expected this season.
Darnell Mooney has 27 yards on 10 targets through three games and shouldn't be close to fantasy lineups in Chicago's run-heavy scheme.
Sterling Shepard's season-ending torn ACL means no Giants wide receivers (or tight ends) should be in fantasy lineups right now, especially with Wan'Dale Robinson and Kadarius Toney both still battling injuries.
Cole Kmet finally caught a pass in Week 3, but was still limited to only three targets in the game. He's not close to the TE1 radar.
Over/Under: 42.4 (14th highest)
Win Probability: Giants 58% (8th highest)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Philadelphia Eagles
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, James Robinson, A.J. Brown, Christian Kirk, Dallas Goedert
Trevor Lawrence has posted back-to-back top-12 fantasy outings, but he's not an ideal streamer this week against an Eagles defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest QB fantasy points. The Eagles rank sixth in INTs (4), second in sacks (12) and have allowed a league-low 5.1 yards per attempt.
Robinson's ascension to lineup-lock status is bad news for Travis Etienne Jr., who had a career-high 75 yards on 16 touches last week but has yet to clear 10.5 fantasy points in a single game. Etienne is no more than a flex.
Miles Sanders has played on 54% of Philadelphia's snaps and has had 15-plus touches in all three games, but a minimal receiving role (13 yards on six targets) has limited him to 23rd in fantasy points. He's best seen as a flex.
DeVonta Smith has gone from zero catches in Week 1 to a solid 7-80-0 receiving line in Week 2 to pacing all receivers in fantasy points (8-169-1) in Week 3. Smith has found his way back into the WR2 discussion.
Zay Jones sits 25th in WR fantasy points after posting a 10-85-1 receiving line on 11 targets last week. He has now seen at least eight targets in six of his last seven games. He's on the flex radar, even in a tough matchup against an Eagles defense allowing a league-low 5.8 yards per target to receivers. Marvin Jones Jr. scored in Week 3, but he's yet to clear 38 yards in a game and is a poor flex option.
Evan Engram has yet to deliver any top-10 fantasy outings and has been below five targets in two out of three games. He's not a starting TE option.
Over/Under: 48.4 (5th highest)
Win Probability: Eagles 59% (7th highest)
New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Lineup locks: Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson
Breece Hall has now reeled off consecutive top-15 fantasy outings, but the rookie remains in a timeshare with Michael Carter. Hall holds the edge in targets (24-15), but Carter is ahead in carries (28-21), snaps (124-92) and routes run (68-57). Hall, who leads the RB position in targets, is the preferred flex option. More rushing work would help him leap into the RB2 mix.
Garrett Wilson ranks fifth in WR targets (33), as well as first at the position in expected TDs (4.3) and end zone targets (7). He'll find his way into "lineup lock" territory if he continues to see 11.0 targets per game, but it's yet to be seen how the move from Flacco to Zach Wilson will affect his usage. For now, the rookie is a WR3, whereas Elijah Moore (zero 50-plus yard games) is a flex.
Chase Claypool has yet to eclipse 54 yards in a game and he followed up a 10-touch Week 1 with exactly four touches in both of the last two games. He's an uninspiring flex. George Pickens' amazing Week 3 catch is his only notable fantasy play of the season, as he has a total of 65 yards on 12 targets. Keep him benched.
Pat Freiermuth had a quiet Week 3 with only 41 yards on four targets, but he saw 16 targets and found the end zone once during Pittsburgh's first two games. He remains a TE1.
Tyler Conklin has seen seven-plus targets and scored 10-plus fantasy points in all three games. He's a fringe TE1 and will be more of a lock if his production continues with Wilson under center.
Over/Under: 39.7 (16th highest)
Win Probability: Steelers 66% (4th highest)
Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers
Lineup locks: Kyler Murray, Christian McCaffrey, James Conner, Marquise Brown, Zach Ertz
It's hard to believe that a player with 1,100 yards in three consecutive seasons is not a lineup lock, but that's the situation right now with DJ Moore. He has been limited to a 7-88-1 receiving line on 17 targets and has yet to provide a weekly fantasy finish better than 30th. He has seen either five or six targets in all three games and that simply won't cut it. Moore, who could draw Byron Murphy Jr. shadow coverage, is down to WR3 territory and will fall further if his role doesn't increase.
Robbie Anderson has 46 yards on nine targets during his last two games and, even in a good matchup against Marco Wilson, is not an ideal flex.
Greg Dortch has had 55-plus yards and 13-plus fantasy points in all three games. Especially with A.J. Green expected to miss time, Dortch is a viable flex option -- and that will even more be the case if Rondale Moore remains sidelined. If active, Moore is best left on benches this week after missing Weeks 1-3.
Over/Under: 44.9 (9th highest)
Win Probability: Panthers 52% (13th highest)
New England Patriots @ Green Bay Packers
Lineup locks: Aaron Jones
Aaron Rodgers has reached 16 fantasy points in back-to-back games and has a decent matchup against a Patriots defense that was demolished last week by Lamar Jackson. He's far from a must-start, but is nonetheless a fringe QB1.
AJ Dillon has been boom/bust (same as in 2021), reaching 20.1 fantasy points in Week 1 but falling short of 8.0 in both of the last two weeks. He has seen 14-plus touches in consecutive games, though, and is a fringe RB2.
Rhamondre Stevenson took a big leap forward with 101 yards and a score on 16 touches last week but, more importantly, he held a commanding 21-6 lead over Damien Harris in pass routes. If Stevenson continues to share carries with Harris while handling most of the passing-down work, he'll find his way to the RB2 mix. For now, both he and Harris are flex options.
Allen Lazard has found the end zone in 10 of his last 14 games (including both of his 2022 starts), although he's been limited to only 59 yards on nine targets. He's a flex option. Romeo Doubs is "trending up" after an impressive Week 3 in which he caught all eight of his targets for 73 yards and a score. The rookie is also on the flex radar.
Jakobi Meyers was targeted 18 times during Weeks 1-2, but he sat in Week 3 and New England will be without Mac Jones this week. Meyers will be a flex if active. Nelson Agholor and DeVante Parker have both had one big game and two poor ones each this season. Neither are ideal flex options with Brian Hoyer in for Jones.
Robert Tonyan has yet to reach 40 yards in any game, but his seven-target showing in Week 2 keeps him in the TE2 mix.
Over/Under: 43.1 (11th highest)
Win Probability: Packers 68% (3rd highest)
Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders
Lineup locks: Javonte Williams, Davante Adams, Courtland Sutton, Darren Waller
Russell Wilson has just two total touchdowns through three games, which makes him tough to trust. However, he does have a good matchup against a Raiders defense allowing the fourth-most QB fantasy points this season. All three QBs facing the Raiders have reached 18.7 fantasy points.
Derek Carr has thrown exactly two TD passes in all three games, but he's not a great streamer against a Denver defense that has allowed just 583 yards (4th fewest) and only three touchdowns through the air.
Josh Jacobs has managed to post 73-plus yards in all three games, going from two targets total during Weeks 1-2 to five targets in Week 3. His usage is enough to allow RB2 production.
Melvin Gordon III has turned 42 touches into 180 yards, but he's only playing just enough to hang on the flex radar.
Jerry Jeudy's two full games have resulted in receiving lines of 4-102-1 and 2-17-0. He averaged 6.5 targets during those contests and likely will need a boost in order to sustain WR3 consideration.
Hunter Renfrow saw 10 targets in Week 2 before missing last week due to a concussion. He'll rejoin the flex mix if active, although you should note that Denver has allowed the fewest yards and fantasy points to wideouts so far -- with no single WR clearing 13 points. Mack Hollins' 158-yard effort in Week 3 is enough to earn him a bench spot, but consistency will be tough with Adams, Renfrow and Waller all ahead of him in the pecking order. Only consider him for a flex spot if Renfrow remains out.
Denver threw the ball on all 22 of Albert Okwuegbunam's snaps last week, and for the second straight game, he still ended up with only two targets. He's not on the fantasy radar.
Over/Under: 45.4 (8th highest)
Win Probability: Broncos 56% (9th highest)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Lineup locks: Patrick Mahomes, Leonard Fournette, Mike Evans, Travis Kelce
The bad news is that Tom Brady has thrown exactly one TD pass in all three games and has yet to deliver a top-15 fantasy week. The good news is that he'll have Evans, likely Julio Jones and perhaps Chris Godwin back this week. That suggests better days are ahead. He's on the streaming radar in a game in which he'll likely have to throw the ball a ton.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is fourth in RB fantasy points with three top-15 outings, but he's yet to clear eight carries or 12 touches in a game. He also had zero rushing yards in Week 3 and has been too reliant on unsustainable efficiency (4.2 YAC, 100% catch rate, three TDs on 34 touches). Edwards-Helaire is a good bet for a return to earth against a Buccaneers defense allowing the fewest RB fantasy points. Jerick McKinnon has actually led the Chiefs backfield in snaps all three weeks, but that role has resulted in only 85 yards and one score on 20 touches. He belongs on benches.
JuJu Smith-Schuster has finished two weeks just inside the top 40 in fantasy points, and his other outing was a 10-yard dud. He's barely hanging in the WR3 discussion. Marquez Valdes-Scantling has yet to clear 48 yards in a game, but he's handling 22% of the Chiefs' air yards, which keeps him in the flex conversation. Mecole Hardman's 11 targets through three games cements him as a bench player.
If Godwin returns, you'd be hard-pressed to bench him. Jones had 86 yards on five touches in Week 1 and will be a flex if Godwin remains out. Only consider Russell Gage (12-87-1 receiving line on 14 targets last week) if both Godwin and Jones are sidelined.
Over/Under: 49.3 (3rd highest)
Win Probability: Chiefs 50% (16th highest)
Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers
Lineup locks: Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle
Matthew Stafford is 25th in QB fantasy points and has yet to deliver a top-10 week. He is not a recommended start this week against a 49ers defense that has allowed the fewest passing yards and second-fewest QB fantasy points. Stafford averaged only 15.9 fantasy PPG in three games against the Niners in 2021.
Jeff Wilson Jr. has taken clear control of the 49ers backfield and has delivered back-to-back top-25 fantasy outings, with 15-plus touches and 100-plus yards in both games. You'd be hard-pressed to bench him, even against a strong Rams run defense that is yet to allow an opposing back to reach 10 fantasy points.
Cam Akers split backfield snaps with Darrell Henderson Jr. last week after trailing him during Weeks 1-2. Akers held a big edge in carries (12-4), but wasn't targeted on any of his three routes. Akers is trending up as a rusher, but he'll be limited to flex territory until his passing-game work increases. Henderson is trending down (14 touches during his last two games) and should be on benches.
Brandon Aiyuk saw eight targets in both of his last two games, which allowed for 5-63-0 and 3-39-1 receiving lines. He's yet to produce a top-35 fantasy week, but he's doing enough to justify a WR3/flex spot.
Allen Robinson II has yet to clear five targets or 53 yards in a game, and fantasy's No. 69-scoring WR is ideally left on benches. He does rank fifth at WR in expected TDs (2.2), so you're praying for a score if he's in your lineup.
Tyler Higbee has been a top-15 fantasy TE in all three weeks, despite having yet to score a touchdown. Ranked in the top five in TE targets, receptions and yards, Higbee is a viable TE1, even against a 49ers defense that has allowed just 23 yards on nine targets to tight ends this season.
Over/Under: 45.8 (7th highest)
Win Probability: 49ers 55% (10th highest)
Miami Dolphins @ Cincinnati Bengals
Lineup locks: Joe Mixon, Ja'Marr Chase, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Tee Higgins
Joe Burrow had his best fantasy outing of the season in Week 3 and has been above 16.5 points in all three games. He should be in lineups against a Miami defense allowing the most QB fantasy points this season.
Tua Tagovailoa is fantasy's No. 5-scoring quarterback, but he has only one weekly finish better than 20th, and the Bengals are allowing the third-fewest QB fantasy points. Miami should have to throw plenty in this game, however, so Tagovailoa is a viable fantasy starter.
Chase Edmonds found the end zone twice last week, but he has been held to just 11 carries and two catches over the past two weeks. Running-mate Raheem Mostert is averaging 9.3 touches per game and has yet to find the end zone. Edmonds is the better flex option.
Tyler Boyd put up 105 yards and one score in Week 3, but he has a total of only five targets in two full games with Higgins. He shouldn't be in lineups.
Hayden Hurst plummeted back to earth in Week 3 (7 yards on two targets) and has yet to clear 46 yards in any game or find the end zone. He's a midrange TE2.
Over/Under: 48 (6th highest)
Win probability: Dolphins 52% (14th highest)