Welcome to the Week 3 Fantasy Football Playbook!
This will be your guide to the week's slate of NFL games, featuring score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for both season-long and DFS leagues. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in both raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to possible updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
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New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers
Lineup locks: Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, DJ Moore
With Kamara sidelined last week, Tony Jones Jr. (two carries and two targets on 32 snaps) and Mark Ingram II (10 carries and two targets on 25 snaps) handled nearly all of the backfield work. Kamara is expected back this week, but if he's out, neither replacement should be in lineups.
Robbie Anderson followed up a big Week 1 (5-102-1) with a dud in Week 2 (3-32-0), although keep in mind that he drew the Adoree' Jackson shadow. The Saints' secondary is pretty good, however, so he's no more than a fringe flex option this week.
Chris Olave's 313 air yards in Week 2 were the seventh-most posted in any game since tracking begin in 2007. It's also the most we've seen in a game since DeAndre Hopkins set the record with 404 in Week 4 of 2015. Olave was "limited" to a 5-80-0 receiving line in the game, but his 13 targets bring him to a healthy 22% target share for the season. That rate will dip when Kamara returns, but the rookie joins Jarvis Landry (19% target share) as a deep-league flex.
Juwan Johnson leads all Saints' skill-position players in snap share (76%) and his 12 targets are five off the team lead. The former wide receiver has yet to clear 43 yards in any game of his career, but he's suddenly in the TE2 mix.
Over/Under: 41.7 (15th highest in Week 3)
Win Prob: Saints 58% (10th highest in Week 3)
Houston Texans @ Chicago Bears
Lineup locks: David Montgomery, Brandin Cooks
Justin Fields has had only 28 passing attempts through two games and can't be trusted as a streaming option against a Houston defense that held both Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson in check.
One week after being outsnapped 49-19 by Rex Burkhead, Dameon Pierce held a 37-21 edge over the veteran. Pierce handled all 15 of the team's RB carries, but remained limited as a receiver (two targets on 15 routes). Burkhead is off the fantasy radar for now, but he's playing just enough to limit Pierce to flex value.
Darnell Mooney has remained an every-down player this season, but four targets in two games isn't going to cut it. He belongs on benches.
Over/Under: 42.5 (13th highest)
Win Prob: Bears 58% (9th highest)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Indianapolis Colts
Lineup locks: Patrick Mahomes, Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr., Travis Kelce
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is a top-five fantasy RB through two weeks, but his usage is a bit of a red flag. The third-year back has only 22 touches and was actually outsnapped by Jerick McKinnon last week. Unless his volume increases, "CEH" will remain a fringe RB2. McKinnon should be on benches.
Nyheim Hines fell from nine touches in Week 1 to five in Week 2. He remains no more than a deep PPR-league flex.
JuJu Smith-Schuster is the only Chiefs wide receiver to have cleared 50 yards in a game this season and he followed that Week 1 showing with a sad 10-yard effort against the Chargers. He joins Marquez Valdes-Scantling (57 yards on 11 targets this season) and Mecole Hardman (65 yards on 10 targets) as no more than a flex flier.
Ashton Dulin posted a 5-79-0 receiving line in Week 2, but he'll be worth only flex consideration if Pittman remains sidelined for another week.
Over/Under: 50.9 (3rd highest)
Win Prob: Chiefs 64% (5th highest)
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, Jaylen Waddle
Tua Tagovailoa is off to an outstanding start, but he has a much tougher matchup against Buffalo this week. The Bills held Matthew Stafford and Ryan Tannehill to a combined one TD pass, five INTs and league-low 8.5 fantasy points. Consider Tagovailoa as only a fringe QB1.
Chase Edmonds took a backseat to Raheem Mostert in Week 2 and now barely holds an edge over his running mate in snaps (72-63), carries (17-16), routes (45-36) and targets (7-4). Never much of a TD threat and having yet to deliver a top-30 fantasy week, Edmonds is no more than a flex. Mostert should be on benches.
Devin Singletary remains the lead back in Buffalo, but his usage (14 carries, seven targets) has been severely limited by Zack Moss (nine carries, six targets) and late-game rest in blowout wins. Consider Singletary to be a flex in what should be a more competitive game this week.
If Gabe Davis is back from injury this week, he's a fine WR2 option. If he's out, Buffalo's secondary receivers can be avoided after none cleared three targets with Davis sidelined last week.
Dawson Knox is off to a slow start (46 yards on seven targets), but he's been on the field for nearly every play with Allen and is always a TD threat. He's a back-end TE1 this week.
Over/Under: 50.3 (4th highest)
Win Prob: Bills 66% (3rd highest)
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
Lineup locks: Dalvin Cook, D'Andre Swift, Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, T.J. Hockenson
Kirk Cousins has yet to deliver a top-10 fantasy outing this season, but he has a terrific Week 3 matchup against a Lions defense that allowed 25-plus points to both Jalen Hurts and Carson Wentz. He's a solid streaming option.
Jamaal Williams has reached 12 touches in both games, but he's a nonfactor as a receiver and too TD-dependent to be a reliable flex option.
Adam Thielen has played on 96% of snaps, but has just 88 yards on 11 targets to show for it. He has fallen to flex territory. The same goes for DJ Chark after he failed to catch any of his four targets in Week 2.
After posting a goose egg in Week 1, Irv Smith Jr. saw a boost in playing time (56% of snaps) and targets (8) in Week 2. He's ascending, but not quite a TE1 option just yet.
Over/Under: 51.4 (2nd highest)
Win Prob: Vikings 65% (4th highest)
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots
Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews
With Ty Montgomery on IR, nearly all of the Patriots' RB usage in Week 2 was split between Rhamondre Stevenson (nine carries, two targets and 13 routes on 41 snaps) and Damien Harris (15 carries, two targets and six routes on 26 snaps). Harris' early-down and goal-line role makes him the better RB2/flex option, but Stevenson's adjusted role makes his flex status more secure.
J.K. Dobbins is nearing a return, but he'll likely operate in a committee early on and is best viewed as a shaky flex this week.
Jakobi Meyers has eight-plus targets in six of his past seven full games and four-plus receptions in 21 of his last 22 outings. He's questionable (knee), but if he plays, he'll be a fine WR3 against a Ravens defense that has allowed the most targets, receptions, yards and scores to wide receivers. After a strong showing in Week 2, teammate Nelson Agholor is a sneaky flex in the same matchup.
Rashod Bateman toasted Xavien Howard for a 75-yard TD last week, but the sophomore receiver has been limited to just 12 targets and 63% of the snaps. He'll be boom/bust if that usage doesn't rise. Consider him to be a WR3 this week.
Hunter Henry has seen only four targets in two games and his passing-down work plummeted in Week 2. He's not on the TE1 radar right now.
Over/Under: 49.6 (6th highest)
Win Prob: Ravens 61% (6th highest)
Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets
Lineup locks: Joe Mixon, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins
Joe Burrow leads the entire NFL in expected fantasy points thanks, in part, to a league-high 110 dropbacks, but he has struggled to convert that into touchdowns (3) or fantasy points (no top-10 showings). He has a good matchup this week, though, so he's very much in the QB1 mix.
Joe Flacco's 26.9 fantasy points in Week 2 marks his highest total in any game since leaving the Ravens after the 2018 season. He's not a good streaming option.
Michael Carter dominated the Jets backfield in Week 2 (seven carries, five targets and 21 routes on 40 snaps), with Breece Hall reduced to seven carries, one target and six routes on 17 snaps. Carter has now produced back-to-back top-25 fantasy outings and is a viable RB2. Hall belongs on benches.
Garrett Wilson continues to run third on the Jets' WR depth chart, but his usage when on the field has been massive. He's second to only Burrow in expected fantasy points (54), first in expected TDs at 3.5 (nobody else is above 2.6) and tied for first with Chase in end zone targets (5). Wilson looks the part and is already on the WR3 radar. Elijah Moore is running as the Jets' No. 1 receiver, but that has allowed only 90 yards on 12 targets. He's safest as a flex.
Tyler Boyd fell to two targets with Higgins healthy in Week 2 and remains a poor flex option.
Tyler Conklin (16 targets) and Hayden Hurst (15) are both top-15 scorers at the position so far and are viable streaming options -- especially if you need a Dalton Schultz replacement.
Over/Under: 45.4 (11th highest)
Win Prob: Bengals 71% (2nd highest)
Las Vegas Raiders @ Tennessee Titans
Lineup locks: Derrick Henry, Davante Adams, Darren Waller
Derek Carr is on the streaming radar in a great matchup this week, but note that while he ranks top 10 in attempts, yards and touchdowns, he still sits 13th in fantasy points due to a complete lack of rushing. His ceiling remains limited.
Josh Jacobs has been busy as a rusher (29 carries), but is a nonfactor as a receiver (two targets), which is about as expected. He'll require some trips to the end zone, but fringe RB2 fantasy output is the likely outcome in this role.
Hunter Renfrow rebounded with 59 yards and 10 targets in Week 2 and remains in the WR3 mix in a great Week 3 matchup.
Treylon Burks leads the Titans with a 20% target share, but he has played on only 42% of the snaps. The situational role limits him to deep league flex territory. Robert Woods (six targets in two games) and Austin Hooper (seven targets) are both too risky to play right now.
Over/Under: 48.8 (7th highest)
Win Prob: Raiders 53% (16th highest)
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Antonio Gibson, A.J. Brown, Terry McLaurin, Dallas Goedert
Wentz was a top-five fantasy QB during both Weeks 1 and 2, but he had great matchups against the Jaguars and Lions. Life will be tougher against an Eagles defense that allowed a combined 5.3 YPA and 24.3 fantasy points to Jared Goff and Cousins. He's a fringe QB1.
Miles Sanders sits no lower than 12th among RBs in touches, yards and fantasy points through two weeks. More passing-game production would be nice (15 yards on five targets), but his heavy rushing game usage and elite efficiency keep him in the RB2 mix. J.D. McKissic (seven targets in Week 2) is a deep PPR-league flex.
Curtis Samuel is trending toward lineup-lock status after he followed up a 12-touch, 72-yard Week 1 with an 8-touch, 99-yard Week 2. He also scored in both games. Jahan Dotson does have three touchdowns in two games, but that 13% target share makes him a risky start in a much tougher matchup.
DeVonta Smith followed a goose egg on three targets in Week 1 with a 7-80-0 receiving line on seven targets in Week 2. He's a flex in the Eagles' red-hot offense.
Logan Thomas scored in Week 2 and has soaked up 11 targets. He's a fringe TE1.
Over/Under: 49.7 (5th highest)
Win Prob: Eagles 57% (13th highest)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Los Angeles Chargers
Lineup locks: Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Christian Kirk, Mike Williams
Trevor Lawrence is playing well this season, but it has yet to translate to a top-10 fantasy outing. Leave him on benches for now.
James Robinson has taken control of the Jaguars' backfield, pacing the unit in snaps (73) and carries (55). Travis Etienne Jr. has taken a backseat (55 snaps, 13 carries), while not doing nearly as much as expected as a receiver (only seven targets). Robinson is a fine flex, whereas Etienne (under 9.0 fantasy points in both games) is a risky start -- although perhaps he'll get more touches if the Jaguars trail, as expected, this week.
Allen is expected back this week, but if he remains out, Joshua Palmer (eight targets in Week 2) will return to the flex conversation.
Zay Jones was limited to four targets last week after handling at least eight in his previous five games. Jones hasn't found the end zone since Week 1 of last season and isn't a great flex. The same goes for Marvin Jones Jr. (71 yards on 11 targets in two games).
Evan Engram (12th) and Gerald Everett (fourth) are both top-12 fantasy scorers at tight end so far, which puts them on the streaming radar. Note that Everett (14 targets) is a candidate for less work with Allen expected back.
Over/Under: 48.4 (8th highest)
Win Prob: Chargers 76% (Highest)
Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals
Lineup locks: Kyler Murray, James Conner, Cooper Kupp, Marquise Brown
Stafford followed an ugly Week 1 against Buffalo with a better showing in Week 2 against Atlanta, but the veteran QB has thrown five INTs in two games. Nevertheless, he's a streaming play this week against an Arizona defense that has allowed the most QB fantasy points and touchdowns (7) through two weeks.
Conner (ankle) is expected to play this week, but if he's out, Darrel Williams and Eno Benjamin figure to split backfield duties. With Conner sidelined after 16 snaps last week, Williams handled eight carries and three targets on 34 snaps. Benjamin managed eight carries and four targets on 33 snaps. Neither would be a great flex.
Cam Akers saw his snaps jump from 12 in Week 1 to 27 in Week 2, which helped him to 15 carries and three targets. That's a move in the right direction, but he still trailed Darrell Henderson Jr. (35 snaps) in overall playing time and routes run (Henderson held a 19-9 edge). Akers is the preferred flex, but not by much.
Allen Robinson II found the end zone in Week 2, but he has a mere 65 yards on seven targets through two games, which isn't going to cut it for consistent WR2/3 production. He's a flex for now.
Greg Dortch has reached 55 yards and 13 fantasy points in both weeks thus far, but he was limited to four targets in Week 2 and he'll be headed to the bench if Rondale Moore returns. Moore would be a risky start in his 2022 debut. If he remains out, Dortch and A.J. Green would make for uninspiring flex options.
Tyler Higbee leads all tight ends with 20 targets this season. He has finished only one season better than 14th in fantasy points, but we can't ignore his early-season usage. Consider him to be a midrange TE1.
Zach Ertz erupted for 11 targets in Week 2 and has seen nine-plus looks in five of his last six games. He remains a TE1 play.
Over/Under: 52.2 (Highest)
Win Prob: Rams 57% (11th-highest)
Atlanta Falcons @ Seattle Seahawks
Lineup locks: None
Tyler Allgeier made his NFL debut in Week 2 and handled 10 carries (zero targets) on 18 snaps. Cordarrelle Patterson, meanwhile, racked up 10 carries (one target) on 33 snaps. Patterson will have better days as a receiver and remains a fringe RB2, whereas Allgeier belongs on benches.
It's a similar story in Seattle, as Kenneth Walker III made his NFL debut in Week 2 and handled four carries and three targets on 11 snaps. Rashaad Penny managed six carries and wasn't targeted on 20 snaps, whereas Travis Homer paced the unit with a pair of carries and four targets on 21 snaps. A situation where Penny and Walker are splitting carries and Homer handles all the passing situations is a fantasy nightmare. This backfield should be avoided for now.
Drake London has handled 33% of the targets and 39% of the air yards through two games in Atlanta. That has allowed receiving lines of 5-74-0 and 8-86-1, which solidifies the rookie as a WR3 with upside for more.
DK Metcalf has been held below 40 yards in both games (13 targets) and Tyler Lockett has one poor (3-28-0) and one good (9-107-0) game this season. Neither are lineup locks, but can be considered as WR3 plays.
Kyle Pitts posted 2-19-0 receiving lines on a total of 10 targets during Weeks 1-2. He's no longer a lineup lock, but he is playing on 89% of the snaps and had over 1,000 yards as a rookie last season. He remains in the TE1 mix.
Over/Under: 43.2 (12th highest)
Win Prob: Seahawks 58% (8th highest)
Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Lineup locks: Leonard Fournette, Aaron Jones
Through two games, Tom Brady has thrown for just 402 yards and two scores. Last season, he averaged 312.7 yards and 2.5 passing TDs per game. Production might not improve much this week against a good Green Bay defense. Plus, with Mike Evans out because of a suspension and both Chris Godwin (hamstring) and Julio Jones (knee) dicey? Brady is only a fringe starting option.
Aaron Rodgers is in a similar boat as he gets his new pass-catchers up to speed. He gets a big downgrade this week against a Tampa Bay defense that allowed a grand total of 14.7 fantasy points to Jameis Winston, Dak Prescott and Cooper Rush.
Jones (20 carries, eight targets and 45 routes on 76 snaps) and AJ Dillon (28 carries, 10 targets and 30 routes on 69 snaps) continue to split Green Bay's backfield duties. It's going to lead to occasional dud games, as we saw with Jones in Week 1 and Dillon in Week 2. Both are in the RB2 mix, however, with Jones being the better play.
The value of Tampa Bay's wide receivers will depend on who is active this week, so we'll need to monitor the situation right up until kickoff. We're starting Godwin and Jones if they play, whereas Russell Gage and Breshad Perriman will be more appealing if called upon to start.
No Packers' wide receiver cleared five targets in Week 1 and, even with Allen Lazard back, none cleared four in Week 2. Lazard is the best flex option, but this isn't a super-reliable group.
Over/Under: 46.6 (9th highest)
Win Prob: Buccaneers 58% (7th highest)
San Francisco 49ers @ Denver Broncos
Lineup locks: Javonte Williams, Deebo Samuel, Courtland Sutton, George Kittle
Russell Wilson is a bench candidate this week against a good 49ers defense, especially after he totaled just two touchdowns in seemingly good matchups against Seattle and Houston during Weeks 1-2.
Trey Lance is headed to the IR, which means Jimmy Garoppolo is back as the 49ers' starting QB. He's not worth adding, however, as he has never had a top-12 fantasy campaign, nor has he finished better than 18th on a per-game basis.
The 49ers lost Elijah Mitchell in Week 1 and Tyrion Davis-Price in Week 2, leaving Jeff Wilson Jr. as the clear feature back. He might defer some carries to newcomer Marlon Mack this week, but Wilson (who had 18 carries in Week 2) is in the RB2 discussion.
Melvin Gordon III was doubled up in snaps by Williams in Week 2, which limited the veteran to 10 carries and one target. He's a shaky flex against a 49ers' front allowing 2.8 YPC to RBs so far (second toughest).
Jerry Jeudy left Week 2 with a shoulder injury, but he'll be a viable WR3 if he's good to go this week.
Brandon Aiyuk posted a 5-63-0 receiving line on eight targets in Week 2 and having Garoppolo under center helps his chances of providing WR3 numbers.
Albert Okwuegbunam is tough to trust after failing to catch either of his two targets in Week 2.
Over/Under: 46.6 (10th highest)
Win Prob: Broncos 53% (15th highest)
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants
Lineup locks: Saquon Barkley, CeeDee Lamb
Ezekiel Elliott has put up 105 yards on 25 carries and minus-7 yards on four targets through two games. He's only 15 snaps ahead of Tony Pollard and being out-targeted 9-4 by his running mate. Elliott is seeing just enough work to stay in the RB2 mix ... for now. Pollard should remain on benches.
Sterling Shepard is squarely in the flex discussion after a 10-target showing in Week 2. Daniel Jones' go-to receiver has now seen six-plus targets in 39 of his past 47 games and leads the team in the category (14) this season.
Michael Gallup (ACL) might return this week, but he'll be limited and too risky to play off the injury -- especially with Prescott still out. Only consider Noah Brown as a flex option in deep leagues if Gallup remains out.
Schultz (knee) is expected to miss this game and replacements Jake Ferguson and Peyton Hendershot are not recommended replacements.
Over/Under: 42.1 (14th highest)
Win Prob: Cowboys 56% (14th highest)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns
Lineup locks: Najee Harris, Nick Chubb, Diontae Johnson, Pat Freiermuth
Chubb (73 snaps) and Kareem Hunt (72) are splitting backfield duties. Chubb (39 carries, 19 routes, four targets) is the primary rusher, while Hunt leads the charge in passing situations (24 carries, 26 routes, six targets). Nobody is benching Chubb after his three-TD Week 2. Meanwhile, Hunt should be considered a boom/bust flex option.
Chase Claypool fell from six carries and seven targets in Week 1 to zero carries and six targets in Week 2. He has had just one touchdown during his past 13 games and is no more than a flex. Amari Cooper rebounded from a rough Week 1 with a strong 9-101-1 showing against the Jets on Sunday. His 28% target share keeps him in the WR3 conversation.
David Njoku has been limited to a mere 39 yards on six targets through two weeks and belongs on benches (or waivers).
Over/Under: 38.6 (16th highest)
Win probability: Browns 57% (12th highest)