Making those tough lineup decisions, week over week, can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process. When you're torn between two similar players, and simply don't know which of them to start, my advice is to start the player with the superior matchup.
Ah, but exactly how does one determine the best (and worst) weekly NFL matchups?
The "Matchups Map" each week provides a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups, ranking all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying upon seasonal totals, in this space we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule that it has faced. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
For Week 3, these maps include two measures: The first, "Rk," is my personal ranking of the matchup; the second, "Adj. FPA," reflects how far above or below players' weekly PPR fantasy point averages that defense held opponents at that position in 2021. Remember, teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team's personnel at that position.
The reason for using my personal rankings right now, rather than year-to-date totals, is that two weeks' worth of defensive numbers don't provide an adequate sample with which to judge performance. Once three weeks are in the books, we'll begin using 2022 data as well as my personal rankings to adjust for the still-limited sample, then beginning in Week 6 (five weeks in the books), we'll rank only by what the numbers say, and each subsequent week will provide a snapshot of the most recent five weeks.
A couple of caveats before we start: Take the 2021 data with a heaping dose of salt, as the rankings are much more important. Additionally, matchups are only one ingredient to the lineup-setting process, as not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my -- and ESPN fantasy staff's -- most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Matchups highlight
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (at Cardinals). After two so-so weeks, coupled with the elbow problems he dealt with during the preseason, Stafford's fantasy QB1 stock has come into legitimate question. He has been intercepted multiple times in five consecutive regular-season games, the longest streak in 33 years, has been picked off 15 total times in his past nine games -- including the postseason -- and appears to have firmly slipped into the streamer/matchups class at his position. Still, Stafford had his moments against a bad Falcons defense in Week 2, including beginning the game 12-of-12 passing for 119 yards and a touchdown. He is now set up for a pass-heavy matchup against a Cardinals defense with a weak pass rush and little cornerback depth, even if it has a pair of Pro Bowl-caliber safeties in Budda Baker and Jalen Thompson. That is a risk/reward matchup, but considering Stafford's likelihood of attempting 40-plus passes, as he has done in three of his past four games (postseason included) and that this game has the fourth-highest total this week (48.5 points), that signals lots of throwing. Stafford is in good shape to deliver a 20-point fantasy week, regardless of picks. He dropped 19.30 (Week 4) and 23.48 fantasy points (Week 14) on this defense last season.
Others to like
Kirk Cousins, Vikings (vs. Lions). He has gotten off to a similarly sluggish start but has faced a tough schedule, has a deep slate of receivers and now gets about as easy a matchup as a quarterback could ask for.
Derek Carr, Raiders (at Titans). He might not have dominated that aforementioned Cardinals matchup, but 18.98 fantasy points is still pretty good. He gets another cozy matchup this week.
Geno Smith, Seahawks (vs. Falcons). He isn't a completely absurd two-quarterback/superflex streamer, having completed 81% of his passes thus far and is now facing the most favorable positional matchup of Week 3.
Matchup to avoid
Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins (vs. Bills). I know, I know, everyone wants this Dolphins-Bills matchup to be Lamar Jackson vs. Tagovailoa, Part 2. While the 52-point total, second-highest for the week, seems to back it up, have we considered that the Bills might absorb a good chunk of that number? Tagovailoa's interest in airing it out is admirable, but both for our purposes as well as the fun of football watching, this isn't a good matchup for a quarterback with an 18.3% off-target rate (17.1% league average). The Bills have thoroughly embarrassed their first two quarterback opponents, a trend that extends from last season when it pertains to the position's non-elite. In fact, Tagovailoa totaled only 15.72 fantasy points on 71 snaps played in his two games against the Bills last season.
Running backs
Matchups highlight
Cordarrelle Patterson, Atlanta Falcons (at Seahawks). Patterson came back to earth in Week 2 after his 22.6 PPR fantasy-point masterpiece in the opener with a mere 4.1 points on 33 offensive snaps and 10 total touches. But he faced one of the league's toughest positional matchups in the Rams. Patterson gets a much easier matchup this week against a Seahawks defense that surrendered a combined 27.0 PPR fantasy points to the Broncos' Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon III in Week 1 and 21.7 points to the 49ers' trio of Jeff Wilson Jr., Kyle Juszczyk and Tyrion Davis-Price in Week 2. Tyler Allgeier had 10 carries last week, but if the Falcons maintain a positive game flow, there's a good chance that both players will see at least 12 touches, even if they are splitting snaps on Sunday.
Others to like
Darrell Henderson Jr., Rams (at Cardinals). He looks appealing, even if he's held closer to the 12-to-15-touch range.
David Montgomery, Bears (vs. Texans). He has been the clear centerpiece in the Bears' offense through two weeks. Despite the better-than-expected performance of the Texans' defense thus far, it ranks 20th in yards allowed per carry (4.72).
Matchup to avoid
Devin Singletary, Bills (at Dolphins). The total might lure fantasy managers into believing everyone on the Bills' offense will thrive, but Singletary's individual matchup is completely unappealing. Through two weeks, the Dolphins have held running backs to 0.31 fantasy points per carry (third worst in the league). Some of that has to do with the level of competition -- they faced Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson in Week 1 and Mike Davis and Kenyan Drake in Week 2 -- but this was also a defense graded as the sixth toughest against the running backs in 2021. Singletary totaled 21.0 PPR fantasy points in two meetings with the Dolphins last season, so don't expect any miracles now.
Wide receivers
Matchups highlight
Tyler Lockett, Seahawks (vs. Falcons). Considering the Falcons have cornerbacks Casey Hayward and A.J. Terrell, it's surprising to see that, through two weeks, their defense has allowed opposing wide receivers the third-most fantasy points (101.3 PPR). Terrell, who paced his position with minus-29.4 targeted EPA (expected points added) last season, per NFL's Next Gen Stats, ranks last in that department this season with plus-12.5. Hayward also has a below-average grade in coverage (plus-2.0 targeted EPA). Both should improve, but this is a good time to pick on the Falcons' secondary. In Lockett's case, he's the one of the two big-name Seahawks wideouts who runs a handful of his routes out of the slot (a team-high 39.7%), which minimizes his exposure to Hayward or Terrell.
Others to like
Amari Cooper, Browns (vs. Steelers). I might be in the minority, but I like Cooper to approach if not repeat his solid Week 2 against a Steelers defense that allowed at least 23 PPR fantasy points to perimeter receivers in each of the first two weeks.
Jakobi Meyers, Patriots (vs. Ravens). Meyers benefits from a matchup against a Ravens secondary that melted down while playing with a huge lead in Week 2.
Matchup to avoid
Terry McLaurin, Commanders (vs. Eagles). Darius Slay paces all cornerbacks with a minus-13.0 targeted EPA, and the Eagles' defense as a whole has limited wide receivers to a fifth-best 1.37 PPR fantasy points per target through two weeks. McLaurin has averaged 6.5 targets and 12.1 PPR fantasy points in his past four meetings with the Eagles, all of which had him most often covered by Slay. On the 10 total targets in which Slay was the nearest man in coverage, McLaurin totaled six catches for 97 yards and no touchdowns.
Tight ends
Matchups highlight
Tyler Higbee, Rams (at Cardinals). One might think that with Baker and Thompson at safety, the Cardinals would be in good shape to contain opposing tight ends. Not so, as Arizona's defense has allowed by far the most PPR fantasy points to the position (58.2). Most of those were scored by Travis Kelce (26.1 in Week 1) and Darren Waller (17.0 in Week 2), but in fairness to Higbee, his usage has been plenty comparable to those two tight ends. He has played a position-leading 95.3% of the Rams' offensive snaps, paces his position with 20 targets, has the second-most red zone targets (4) and has run 71 routes. Higbee is getting a ton of work, and since defenses tend to focus on the Rams' wide receivers, he might continue to see coverage by the Cardinals' linebackers, a position that has been a weak spot so far this season.
Others to like
Irv Smith Jr., Vikings (vs. Lions). Smith saw a huge workload spike in Week 2 and now gets to face the league's worst all-around defense.
Hunter Henry, Patriots (vs. Ravens). Henry could benefit from a matchup against a Ravens defense that has really let its guard down in scoring position over the first two weeks. This is notable considering Henry's 14 end zone targets in 2021 were second most among tight ends.
Matchup to avoid
Mike Gesicki, Dolphins (vs. Bills).
Week 3 isn't one in which any fantasy-relevant tight end is a clear matchups must-sit, perhaps due in part to the thinning out of talent at the position. But let's take this opportunity to stress how much Gesicki's performance last week shouldn't coax you to start him. His 14.1 PPR fantasy points look good on the surface, but much of that was fueled by a 14-yard catch TD at the start of the third quarter. Trade him while you can still recapture some of the draft capital you spent. After all, Gesicki draws a much stiffer matchup against the Bills. Buffalo has allowed only 29.9 PPR fantasy points to tight ends in the red zone since the start of last season, the fourth fewest in the league.