Matthew Berry shares his fantasy football focuses notes and observations gleaned from the 2022 NFL combine.
"Looks like we are going to hit all 33 floors."
There's a small chuckle from the group in the elevator, a resigned "What are you gonna do?" kind of laugh. The hotel has 33 floors and, apparently, this is only elevator currently working. So every single floor, we are stopping, the doors open, the person sees a large group and slowly walks in, apologetically.
"Sorry. I've been waiting forever for an elevator."
It takes forever, but eventually we make it to the lobby of the downtown Indianapolis hotel. And I will say this: If his calm demeanor and wry smile during a slow, annoying and crowded elevator ride is any indication, new Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell will not panic should a game not go their way this season.
Oh yeah, I was stuck in an elevator with a number of Vikings coaches, their PR guy and O'Connell, because of course I was. Members of the NFL are everywhere. Head coaches and their staff, general managers, front-office folks, scouts, medical personnel, agents, media and everyone else associated with the NFL (or hoping to be) is in Indy during combine week. Walking around, meeting, eating, drinking, networking and trading notes, information and war stories.
With everyone in one place, after the Super Bowl but before the new league year officially starts, and little fan interaction, well, they are about as relaxed and open as they'll be all year. I wasn't there last year because of the COVID-19 pandemic, of course, but I've gone for many years previously. And just like I have in previous years, I spent my time in Indy ... listening.
Back in the elevator, I introduced myself to O'Connell and congratulated him on his new job. He said, "Nice to meet you" and "Thank you." That was the extent of our conversation. There were a lot of people around, it was a slow-moving elevator and it felt weird and inappropriate to suddenly ask him about, say, K.J. Osborn.
But everywhere else, that's exactly what I did. In bars, restaurants, hallways and hotel lobbies, I met, networked and asked questions, collecting notes, nuggets and rumors that would affect fantasy football in 2022.
What follows are rumors I heard, my own interpretation of things that were said, some funny things that happened and observations I made over a few days at this year's NFL combine. I will say, over the years my sources and this column have had a pretty decent track record. Among other things, in this column two years ago I was the first national columnist to suggest that not only was Tom Brady leaving New England but that he was likely to sign with Tampa Bay. (At the time -- pre-free agency 2020 -- many thought Brady would return to New England and to my knowledge no one on a national level had suggested Tampa Bay as a likely destination.)
I've written about him before, but one thing I got to do this year was catch up with my friend, the legendary Peter King. Always great spending time with him, so, as a homage to him, here are ...
25 things I think I think after a few days at the 2022 NFL combine
1. I came into the combine thinking it was likely that the Dallas Cowboys would figure out a way to keep Amari Cooper and let Michael Gallup leave, but I was quickly disabused of that opinion. I was told it was a "90% chance" Cooper would be released (and then soon after I heard that, Adam Schefter reported a similar notion). But I was also told that while Gallup will get to test the market, the Cowboys hope to have him back and that the feeling is, given Gallup's late-season injury, it makes sense for both sides. If someone offers Gallup big, guaranteed money, then so be it. But if not, Gallup could return to a good offense and a QB he knows well on a one-year "prove it" deal, show he's healthy and then get paid next offseason. The team is also hopeful that it can bring back Cedrick Wilson, also a free agent but one they really like. Certainly, releasing Cooper will save them a lot of cap money.
2. I think if Cooper does leave, it's worth noting in the 18 career games CeeDee Lamb has gotten at least seven targets, he averages 17.2 PPG (would've been WR9 last season). The plan is to move Lamb all over, and the team believes he can be a true No. 1 WR. Rocket emoji for Lamb, who has top-five upside this season.
3. I think Ezekiel Elliott's knee injury last season was more serious than we had realized. Speaking with sources, the internal thought in Dallas is that Zeke is still a legit RB1 and that an improved offensive line this season (and Zeke being fully healthy) will help a lot. You'll still see a lot of Tony Pollard, of course, but the expectation is Elliott still gets a ton of work in 2022, including all the goal-line action. At least for this season, the "death of Zeke's value as a fantasy RB1 narrative" has been overblown. If his current ADP holds, he'll be a value in drafts come August.
4. In addition to Cooper, I think another big-name wideout who will be on another team in 2022 is Allen Robinson II. Even with a new regime in Chicago, it looks very likely that A-Rob is moving on. "No chance he's back with Chicago. No chance," said one source.
5. While I didn't get a chance to ask O'Connell about Osborn, I did get to ask another coach about an obscure wide receiver. At his news conference, unprompted, Browns coach Kevin Stefanski mentioned Anthony Schwartz as a player who impressed him at last year's combine. Later, speaking in front of local press, I asked Stefanski to elaborate on him. He said what impressed them last year at the combine in his interview (and this past season) was his understanding of the game. They knew about his world-class speed, of course, but they loved the fact that he could line up at any position. He immediately grasped all the different concepts for every WR position. Stefanski noted that Schwartz got hurt in the middle of the season and then suffered a concussion after that, so his growth was stunted, but the Browns are definitely excited about him and expect a bigger role for him this season. For what it's worth, I have Schwartz on a few dynasty teams and absolutely love him as a deep sleeper this year. (It's also worth noting that Jarvis Landry has been rumored to be a cap casualty this season.)
6. As long as we are talking Browns, I will say that after some late-night conversations with sources, I think Stefanski has being genuine in his public support of Baker Mayfield. I'll be very surprised if anyone other than Mayfield is under center for the Browns when Cleveland takes its first snap of the 2022 season.
7. It is no secret that the Washington Commanders (I'll get used to writing that eventually) are in the market for a QB. They like Taylor Heinicke but feel he is better suited for a backup role. They certainly have picks, cap room and assets to trade. One source suggested to me that one scenario that made sense was including Daron Payne along with picks to land a big-name veteran QB. (This is a suggestion that NBC's JP Finlay, who does a great job covering the team, has made publicly as well).
8. If they fail to land a big-name veteran, the Commanders will look at other free agents. While they have been publicly connected to both Carson Wentz and Jimmy Garoppolo, I heard from multiple people during the week that Ron Rivera & Co. actually like Mitchell Trubisky the most of the "second-tier QBs." Trubisky, who spent last season as a backup in Buffalo, would be my prediction for the Commanders if they decide to sign a free-agent QB and fail to get a "big-name QB" like Wilson.
9. Staying in Washington, I asked Rivera at a gathering of local press about his No. 2 wide receiver. I said, "Coach, a year ago at this time, there were a lot of questions about finding a player opposite Terry McLaurin at wide receiver. You guys signed Curtis Samuel and drafted Dyami Brown. How do you do feel about that position now, a year later?" Rivera gave a thoughtful answer, as he always does, saying they need Samuel to stay healthy, of course, and that while Brown showed flashes they need him to take the next step. But then unprompted, Rivera mentioned Cam Sims as a priority for them to re-sign. Sims was the first name off Rivera's lips as he then went through all their wide receivers. I heard Sims' name a lot more than I thought I would from people around the team. I would expect him to be re-signed by Washington, making him a deep-league name to remember. J.D. McKissic was also mentioned as a priority for the Commanders to bring back.
10. One player I didn't get a read on was Kirk Cousins. Entering the final year of his contract, Cousins will be a $45 million cap hit for the Vikings. I heard a bunch of wildly varying opinions on Cousins. From one source: "O'Connell loves him. They'll get an extension done." (O'Connell coached Cousins in 2017 as Washington's quarterbacks coach.) Another source said, "I've heard O'Connell is lukewarm on him. He likes him fine, but doesn't love him and may just want to start over." If I had to place a bet today, I'd say Cousins will be the team's starting QB this season. I'd be shocked if the team didn't try to rework his contract, but I also think Cousins isn't going to give a hometown discount. So if the team can't come to an extension agreement (and I think they ultimately will), Minnesota will try to trade him.
11. And if the Vikings try to trade Cousins, could going back to Washington be a possible destination? As unlikely as that might seem, I think Cousins' issues were always with former general manager Bruce Allen, not owner Dan Snyder. Also worth noting, as The Athletic's Ben Standig also pointed out in a recent column, Cousins' agent, Mike McCarthy, represented Washington Commanders team president Jason Wright when Wright was an NFL player. McCarthy is also close to Rivera, having worked with him a number of different times. Personally, I think it is fairly unlikely Cousins winds up back in Washington, but it's not 100% out of the question, either.
12. A couple of Denver rumors I heard include that they want Melvin Gordon III back and Melvin wants to be back. The issue is money. According to a source, Gordon wants a lot more than Denver is willing to pay. If Gordon finds no real market, expect him to be back, but if someone is willing to pay, Denver is happy to go into the season with Javonte Williams as its lead back and Mike Boone as a valuable No. 2.
13. The following story is 100% true. I had dinner with Field Yates one night, and afterward, we went to a popular bar where a lot of NFL folks go. A young server comes up to us and asks our drink order. We order and I hand her a credit card.
Later in the evening, Field and I have split up, as we are both catching up with friends and colleagues. The server approaches me.
Server: Can I get you another?
Me: Sure, thanks. I'll have one more.
Server (looking around): Where's your son? Does he want anything?
Dead emoji. I put my hand on my heart in an exaggerated display of pain. I am dead. The server is all apologies. "I'm so sorry. I mean, your colleague. Your friend."
Our long-standing podcast joke actually happened in real life. I think I may never fully recover.
14. If Myles Gaskin is the starting running back for the Miami Dolphins this season, things will have gone horribly wrong for new head coach Mike McDaniel. After talking with sources, my expectation is the Miami running back you'll want for fantasy this season is not currently on the roster.
15. The Giants made headlines during the combine with the news that Saquon Barkley could potentially be traded. I think that the Giants have one of the worst cap situations in the NFL, and new general manager Joe Schoen has a lot of hard decisions to make, and fast. They've already released TE Kyle Rudolph and RB Devontae Booker to clear some cap space, and a lot more cuts are expected. That's why I think the rumors of the Giants being in on Trubisky are interesting. There are clearly going to be some teams interested, but despite Schoen's and new coach Brian Daboll's familiarity with him from their time in Buffalo, there's going to be a bit of a bidding war for Trubisky. (I know -- it's weird just writing that.) The Giants can't get into that, especially for a player who is not an obvious upgrade on Daniel Jones and not for a team that is likely going to be bad this season.
16. I think Schoen basically says, OK, for one year we are going to take it on the chin. The Giants see what they have in Jones this season while trading everything they can and cutting what they can't. Rip the Band-Aid off quickly, and while this year will be painful, it'll get the Giants in a decent cap position for 2023. I think there's a chance Schoen trades one of his two first-rounders this year if it'll help the Giants in 2023. And yeah, I think if he got anything semi-reasonable for Barkley, he would take it ASAP. I think Jones is their Week 1 starter. And I don't think Trubisky winds up there.
17. I went to Schoen's official news conference as well. They have a big curtain and in front of the curtain are a number of separate podiums and desks, each with a microphone, where the coaches and general managers sit. Then there is a rope, and on the other side of the rope, reporters and camera folks crowd around to try to get a question answered. As I squish in for the news conference, I look over at a guy next to me, on the reporters' side of the rope. I do a double-take and look again.
The guy gives me a nod and a smile.
It's Daboll. Just casually crowding in with all the reporters to hear Schoen's news conference. I didn't see anyone else notice him, either, as everyone was focused on Schoen. Daboll stayed for the whole conference, and then as soon as Schoen was done, he ducked under the rope and a minute later walked up and sat down where Schoen had been to start his own news conference. Legend.
18. At his news conference, Kansas City Chiefs coach Andy Reid was asked about Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon. The first reaction from him was about health, as he noted both guys need to stay on the field. My read: K.C. will once again have a backfield committee, and at current ADPs, I'd much rather take a late flier on McKinnon than a much earlier one on CEH.
19. More Reid: He spoke about how Mecole Hardman has grown and that the staff figured out what he does well and tried to maximize that. (My read: He will remain a guy they take shots with, but not a full-time guy.) I asked about WR Byron Pringle as a follow-up and Reid smiled and said, "I like Pringle. He's a free agent, but I like him. Did a good job for us. Happy he got a potato chip deal."
20. At his news conference, Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury was asked about Rondale Moore, especially given that Christian Kirk and A.J. Green are free agents this year. Kingsbury basically said he expects Moore to be a "much bigger part of their offense next year" and "regardless of if we bring those guys back, we gotta find ways to get him more involved." My read is that this will absolutely happen, especially as it appears likely that Kirk will move on. (My colleagues Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler mention Kirk is expected to have multiple suitors in their excellent combine notes column.)
21. I'm expecting a fantasy significant role this season for Eno Benjamin. When asked about James Conner and Chase Edmonds (both of whom are free agents), Kingsbury said he'd like to have both guys back but doubts that will happen. Kingsbury said nice things about both players, but reading between the lines and making my own gut call, I think it's more likely Conner is back and Benjamin takes the Edmonds role.
22. I met Amon-Ra St. Brown's agent, who came up to say that St. Brown wanted to thank the entire fantasy community and hoped I would pass the message on. The love and support he got made his year, and the agent told me St. Brown's phone would blow up every week with messages from people telling him they won their league because of him. Fun moment. Always like it when a player appreciates the fantasy community.
23. Asked directly at his news conference whether he wants Carson Wentz as his QB next year, Indianapolis Colts coach Frank Reich gave a long answer about the evaluation process, how every player is under scrutiny (and no one more so than the coach and quarterback) and how they are evaluating "everything." What he didn't say: "Yes."
24. I thought it was notable that when Eagles general manager Howie Roseman was asked about non-DeVonta Smith WRs, he brought up Quez Watkins. "When you look at Quez, I think he had a heck of a year. Moved to a position he didn't play in college as a slot wide receiver. Extremely talented and hard working. ... We need Jalen [Reagor] to do the things he needs to do, and he knows that." Roseman also mentioned it's a good draft class for WRs and noted they have 10 picks. He also said they will see what is out there in free agency. My read was that the Eagles will absolutely draft at least one wide receiver and are likely to be active in free agency at that position. Watkins is a deep-league sleeper only, and they are done with Reagor as anything more than depth.
25. Green Bay Packers coach Matt LaFleur said, "We've got two No. 1 backs" and discussed how both Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon were so valuable in the passing game, and how Dillon is just scratching the surface of what he can become. My read is we have another year of #FreeAaronJones! to look forward to. Dillon will have an even larger role in the passing game this season, and while Jones is extremely talented, so is Dillon. This is going to be a full-blown RBBC this season.