Welcome to the conference championship round Fantasy Football Playbook -- Player Props Edition!
This will be your game-by-game guide to this week's slate of NFL games, featuring score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and, of course, player prop picks and analysis. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions and lineup choices for DFS and playoff leagues.
For a closer look at this week's top WR vs. CB matchups, check out this week's shadow report cheat sheet.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 54.5)
Over/Under: 52.1 (highest)
Win probability: Chiefs 73% (highest)
The divisional round opens with the 12-7 Bengals in Kansas City to take on the 14-5 Chiefs at 3 p.m. ET on Sunday. Weather is not expected to be a concern, as there is no precipitation or wind in the forecast and temperatures are expected to be near 40 degrees. This is a rematch of a Week 17 game in which the Bengals came out on top 34-31, though that game was in Cincinnati. Same as in that game, this projects as a high-scoring affair.
The Chiefs operate the league's most effective offense. They average 10.0 drives per game (second lowest) but 6.7 plays per drive (first) and 0.95 EPA per drive (first by far). Kansas City is extremely pass heavy, ranking second in game-script-adjusted pass rate. The unit also ranks fourth in snaps, third in touchdowns and sixth in the percentage of touchdowns that are passes. Kansas City is in "11" personnel 68% of the time (seventh highest).
The Chiefs lean toward man coverage on defense, aligning in Cover 0 at a 7.6% clip (second highest) while also showing a preference for Cover 2 (30.1%) over Cover 3 (11.7%) and Cover 4 (1.9%) when in zone. The Chiefs blitz 28.8% of the time, which is 10th highest.
Cincinnati runs a slow-moving but productive splash-play offense. The Bengals rank 29th in pace of play and plays per drive but sit eighth in touchdowns. They throw the ball a ton, ranking 10th in game-script-adjusted pass rate during the entire season, but are third over the past eight weeks. Cincinnati has had at least three wide receivers on the field 80% of the time, which is the league's second-highest rate.
The Bengals run a balanced defensive scheme heavy on Cover 3 (25.9%) and Man 1 (30.0%) with a touch of Tampa 2 (league-high 6.3% of plays). However, they made a big adjustment against the Chiefs in Week 17, hitting season-high rates of Cover-2 (28.6%), Cover-4 (17.1%) and 2-high looks (56%). Cincinnati was in zone 71% of the time -- the fourth-highest rate Kansas City has seen this season. The Bengals don't blitz very often (20.3% rate is fourth lowest), and that was especially the case in Week 17 (14.3%).
Props
Joe Burrow under 38.5 pass attempts (-110), under 8.5 rush yards (-110)
The Bengals are a road underdog and have been leaning more on the pass as of late, but 38.5 is a big enough number that I'm leaning under. Check this out: Burrow's previous high attempt prop is 36.5. He has had a prop of at least 35.5 four times and went under in three of the four. He has had a line of 34.5 nine times and went under in six of those games. Burrow has fallen short of 39 attempts in 14 of his 18 games (78%) this season. He attempted exactly 40 passes in both of the Bengals' double-digit losses but was under 39 in his other four losses (all were exactly 3-point deficits). One concern here is that teams have thrown against the Chiefs a ton as of late (game script was obviously a big factor), with six of their last nine opponents reaching 39 attempts. All that said, unless you expect the Bengals to trail by more than one score throughout the game, the under is the play. As for the rushing line, Burrow has gone under nine yards in two-thirds of his games this season. He has had a prop of at least 8.5 in five games and went under in all five. That includes last week. Burrow is averaging 6.7 rush yards per game this season and has been under three carries in six of his past eight games.
Byron Pringle over 36.5 receiving yards (-115)
Pringle has reached 37 receiving yards in 42% of his 19 games this season, which is a pretty big number when you consider that he played only 35% of the snaps during Weeks 1-9. Pringle's snap share has leapt to 64% and his target share from 7% (2.7 per game) to 14% (4.9) during his lpst 10 games. Pringle's usage is up even more over the past month or so, as he has registered seven-plus targets and five-plus receptions in four of his past five games. He has hit 37 yards in three of those games, falling just short (35, 29) in the others. Pringle's slot role has left him with a 9.8 average depth of target (5.9 during the playoffs) and that can limit his yardage upside, but his recent target boost is plenty enough to get him over 36 yards. That's especially the case against a Bengals defense that allowed 8.1 yards per target (12th highest) and 66% catch rate (sixth highest) to wideouts during the regular season.
Melvin Ingram to record a sack (+250)
Burrow was sacked nine times by Tennessee last week after accumulating an NFL-high 51 sacks during the regular season. Kansas City brought in Ingram in an effort to improve its pass rush and that has been on display in recent weeks, as the veteran has played at least two-thirds of the defensive snaps in four of the Chiefs' past six games. That includes a season-high 75% against Buffalo last week. Ingram has only 3.0 sacks this season, but his first full sack with the Chiefs came against Josh Allen last week, and he has at least one pass rush win in nine straight games (1.9 average). Ingram's usage coupled with the Bengals' offensive line woes suggests we can take a flier here at major plus money.
Jessie Bates over 3.5 solo tackles (+105)
Bates has reached four solos in 13 of 17 games (76%) this season. Bates is an every-down player and has played fewer than 85% of the defensive snaps in only two games. That's where we find two of the instances in which he fell short of four solos (three in Week 6 and zero in Week 12). Otherwise, he has hit four solos 87% of the time and is averaging 4.7 per game during the span. Bates hasn't missed a snap since Week 13, so this is a tough one to pass on at plus money.
Germaine Pratt under 7.5 combined tackles (EV)
Pratt has finished under eight tackles in 11 of 17 games (65%) this season. That's a solid enough reason to lean under, but it's actually a bit misleading. Pratt has been a situational player most of the season (including the playoffs), but he stepped into an every-down role in place of an injured Logan Wilson during Weeks 13-16. He reached eight combined tackles in three of those games. So, if we exclude those four outliers, Pratt has fallen short of eight tackles in 10 of 13 games (77%). Pratt played a generous 88% of the snaps last week (he had four tackles), but that was expected against a Titans offense that rarely has three wide receivers on the field (it's also why we liked the Mike Hilton under last week, which hit). Kansas City has been in "11" personnel (aka three receivers) 68% of the time this season (seventh highest), which means more nickel (Hilton) and less Pratt this week. Assuming he's closer to 65-70% of the snaps, Pratt figures to fall short of eight tackles again this week.
Trey Hendrickson YES to record a sack (EV)
Hendrickson has been a machine in the sack department this season, recording at least one full sack in 72% of his games. In fact, Hendrickson had a streak off 11-straight games with at least a half sack during the regular season and had at least one full sack in 10 of those affairs. Hendrickson doesn't leave the field often, generally handing around the 70-80% range during games he plays in full. Hendrickson finished the regular season ninth among 79 qualified edge rushers in pass rush win rate (21.2%) and he also ranked eighth in the entire NFL with 27 hurries. Patrick Mahomes doesn't take a ton of sacks, but he's been taken down five times in two playoff games. Hendrickson's track record suggests he's worth a look here at even money.
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams (-3.5, 46)
Over/Under: 44.7 (second-highest)
Win probability: Rams 63% (second-highest)
Sunday's slate wraps up with the 12-7 49ers in Los Angeles to take on the 14-5 Rams at 6:30 p.m. ET. SoFi Stadium has a dome, so weather is not a concern. Los Angeles is the favorite in what easily projects as the lower-scoring game of the weekend, though San Francisco swept the regular-season series. The 49ers dominated the Week 10 showdown 31-10 before erasing a 17-0 deficit en route to a 27-24 overtime win in Week 18.
The Rams operate a balanced offense in most categories, slotting in near mid-pack in pace, drives per game and pass rate. Interestingly, the Rams leaned heavily on the pass early in the season but have progressively moved toward a balanced attack in recent weeks. Overall, the plan has worked, as they sit eighth in EPA per drive and sixth in touchdowns. A league-high 79% of those touchdowns have been passes. Los Angeles has had three-plus receivers on the field a league-high 86% of the time this season. The Rams rank first in "11" personnel and 29th in "12."
The Rams' defense has been in zone coverage 67.4% of the time this season, which is the league's second-highest rate. They mix in plenty of Cover 3 (27.7%) and Man 1 (23.4%) but also utilize Cover 4 at a league-high 22.9% rate. That said, they switched it up in both previous games against the 49ers, aligning in zone 50% of the time in Week 10 (their lowest rate of the season) and 54% of plays in Week 18 (fourth lowest). They lost both games, but the strategy made some sense, as the 49ers have a 75% completion rate and 10.2 YPA against Cover 3 and a 62% completion rate and 8.3 YPA against Man 1 this season. Los Angeles blitzes 27.4% of the time, which ranks 14th.
The 49ers' operate a run-heavy, slow-moving offense, ranking 31st in game-script-adjusted pass rate and 30th in pace of play. They're near mid-pack in drives and snaps, but they're fairly efficient, ranking 10th in EPA per drive. San Francisco uses a fullback at an unusually high rate and thus ranks second in snaps with multiple backs on the field (42%), as well as 29th in three-plus WR sets (48%) and 30th in two-plus TE sets (17%).
The 49ers also run a zone-heavy defensive scheme, barely trailing the Rams in zone usage at 67.36%. They're often in two-high (47.2%) and use their fair share of Cover 2 (22.3%), Cover 3 (26.3%) and Cover 4 (16.8%) when in zone, leaning on Man 1 (22.9%) when in man. The 49ers' 20.4% rate ranks seventh lowest and was way down at 10.1% during the first two games against the Rams.
Props
Matthew Stafford under 23.5 completions (EV), under 280.5 pass yards (-115), under 1.5 passing TDs (+180)
Stafford has been under 24 completions in 53% of his outings this season, including five of his past seven games. As noted earlier, the Rams operated a pass-heavy offense in the first half of the season but have adjusted to a balanced attack during their past six games, which has obviously kept Stafford's completions in check. The 49ers faced the fifth-fewest pass attempts and allowed the 14th-fewest completions during the regular season. More specifically, they're allowing 21.7 completions per game and 15 of their 19 opponents (79%) have completed fewer than 24 (the most recent to go over being Burrow in Week 14). Stafford completed 26 passes against them in Week 10, though the Rams were being blown out and he attempted 41 passes in the game (third most faced by San Francisco in a game this season). Stafford completed 21 passes in the Week 18 meeting.
Stafford has reached 281 passing yards in 58% of his games this season but has done so in only two of his past six games, which coincides with the aforementioned recent dip in pass-first play calling. The 49ers, meanwhile, have allowed more than 280 passing yards twice this season; Jared Goff used garbage time to throw for 338 yards on 57 attempts in Week 1, and Burrow hit 348 in Week 14. Stafford threw for 243 yards in Week 10 and 238 in Week 18 against San Francisco.
The pass TD prop is less likely to hit, as Stafford has thrown at least two touchdowns in 79% of his games. There is some life here, however, as the 49ers held him to one passing TD in Week 10 prior to allowing three in Week 18. In total, the 49ers have held 12 of 19 opponents (63%) below two passing TDs, and that includes Dak Prescott (one) in the wild-card round and Aaron Rodgers (zero) last week. At big-time plus money, this is worth consideration.
Robbie Gould over 1.5 made field goals (+110)
Gould has reached two made field goals in 53% of his games this season. The 49ers have attempted at least two field goals in four straight games and the Rams have faced an average of 2.0 FG attempts per game this season (including 2.3 since their Week 11 bye). Gould has been one of the league's most accurate kickers this season, having nailed 25 of 28 field-goals attempts (89%) and 42 of 43 extra points (97%). This opened at -110, but it has become a value at +110.
Matt Gay over 6.5 kicking points (-135) and/or over 1.5 made field goals (-105)
What we're essentially looking for here is two field goals and an extra point (or one FG and four extra points) from a kicker who has reached seven points in 84% of his games and two made field goals 74% of the time this season. Gay has enjoyed plenty of opportunity (his 34 FG attempts during the regular season ranked ninth) and he has been one of the league's most effective kickers (his 92.5% FG conversion rate is fourth-best). Additionally, Gay has converted all but one of his 56 extra points (98.2%). These would be stronger at plus money, but Gay projects for 1.7 made field goals and 7.6 points, so they're still worth a look.
Von Miller to record a sack (EV)
Miller has played 77% of the Rams' defensive snaps in 10 games since joining the Rams in Week 10. He failed to record a sack during his first four games with the club but has since registered at least one sack in six consecutive games. Miller is averaging 3.7 pass-rush wins per game since his arrival, and that includes a ridiculous 12 on 24 pass-rush attempts against the Buccaneers last week. That's the most pass-rush wins by one player in a single week since Myles Garrett's 13 in Week 2 of the 2020 season. Jimmy Garoppolo is mid-pack in sack rate this season, and the Rams got to him four times on 55 dropbacks during the two prior games.
Aaron Donald over 4.5 combined tackles (EV)
Donald has reached five total tackles in 11 (58%) of his 19 games this season. That's already a pretty good hit rate, but it's even better when you consider his early vs. late season splits. During his first nine games, Donald reached five only twice, averaging 4.1 per game during the span. In his last 10 games, he's hit five nine times, averaging 5.3 along the way. The only game during the span in which he fell short of five was the wild card win over Arizona. He played 76% of the snaps in the blowout - his lowest snap share since Week 8. Donald has played 90% of the defensive snaps this season, including 100% against the Buccaneers last week. Donald played 80% of the snaps and had eight tackles against these same 49ers in Week 10 and registered six tackles while playing 97% of the snaps in the Week 18 game. This over looks good at even money.
Leonard Floyd over 3.5 combined tackles (+120)
Floyd has hit four total tackles in 10 (53%) of his 19 games this season. He's played a healthy 80% of the Rams' defensive snaps on the season and has yet to fall below 52% in a single game (or below 70% since Week 8). Despite the consistently high usage (especially for an edge rusher), Floyd's tackle numbers have obviously been a bit volatile. However, his usage, hit rate and projection (3.8, assuming an 82% snap rate) suggest he's essentially a toss up to get to four tackles. Since we're getting +120, I'm liking those odds.