The NFL postseason is just days from giving us our Super Bowl matchup. Sunday features the Cincinnati Bengals visiting the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game and the San Francisco 49ers heading south to play the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Championship Game.
Betting analysts Doug Kezirian (17-32-2, 0-2 last week), Tyler Fulghum (25-33, 0-0), Joe Fortenbaugh (58-56-2, 1-4), Anita Marks (338-296, 14-10) and Erin Dolan (8-5, 1-0), fantasy and sports betting analyst Eric Moody (152-151, 3-1), ESPN Stats & Information's Seth Walder (66-61, 2-3) and Mackenzie Kraemer (8-15, 0-0), sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (30-31-1, 0-0) and Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz (63-50-1, 0-3) will provide their top plays across the NFL landscape. (Records through the divisional round.)
Here are their best bets for Sunday's conference championship games.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook as of Thursday (unless otherwise indicated).
Jump to: Bengals-Chiefs | 49ers-Rams
NFC Championship
(6) San Francisco 49ers at (4) Los Angeles Rams (-3.5, 46)
Schatz: Let's start with the overall matchup here. The Rams are now up to third in weighted DVOA, including the postseason. But the 49ers are up to fifth, not too far behind. We know that San Francisco has beaten the Rams in six straight games, and it's uniquely built to attack the Rams' weaknesses. For example, the Rams want to play defense with two high safeties to prevent big plays. They've been surprisingly strong against the run this year (fifth in DVOA) despite using the lowest average men in the box of any defense. But the Rams are very susceptible to short middle passes (29th in DVOA). And which offense throws the most passes in the short middle? The 49ers, of course, and they rank fourth in the league in offensive DVOA on those passes.
Those short middle passes are a big reason to go with the over on Jimmy Garoppolo's passing prop. In addition, Garoppolo's passing yardage this year is very dependent on game script. He has seven games under 200 yards, including the two playoff games. He also has seven games over 290 passing yards. He usually throws for a lot more yards if the game is close or the 49ers fall behind, and this one feels like a close game to me, whether it's the Rams or the 49ers who take away the win.
Finally, let's pick a Rams prop as well. San Francisco ranked 31st in DVOA covering opposing No. 1 wide receivers this season. Cooper Kupp had 122 yards and 118 yards in the first two 49ers-Rams games (plus a DPI in each game, although that wouldn't count for his receiving yards prop). Let's count on Kupp to come up big again in a big game and pick him to go over 102.5 receiving yards.
Picks: 49ers +3.5, Garoppolo over 228.5 passing yards (-115; prop has since moved to 232.5), Kupp over 102.5 receiving yards (-115)
Fortenbaugh: The +150 on the money line implies the 49ers have a 40% chance of winning this game. After beating the Rams six straight times, five of which came as an underdog, does it feel like San Francisco has only a 40% chance to win this matchup? What about after you consider the extra day of rest for the Niners, as well the fact that SoFi Stadium will feature a sea of red and gold on Sunday? Now take into account we're not playing San Francisco on the money line, but grabbing the 3.5 points. Does that feel like a good value bet to you?
Pick: 49ers +3.5, Cam Akers under 63.5 rushing yards (-115)
Dolan: Bettors typically see the first-half spread listed as half of the game spread. In this NFC West matchup, it's interesting to see the first-half spread listed at Rams -3. The Rams are 4-1 ATS in the first half over the last five games and have covered three straight. In the playoffs, the Rams were up 21-0 on the Cardinals and 20-3 on the Buccaneers at halftime. The last time these teams met on Jan. 9, the Rams were up 17-3 at the half before the 49ers won in OT. San Francisco is 2-3 ATS in the first half over the last five games, so I am taking the Rams to cover in the first half.
Pick: Rams first half -3
Walder: My friend Timo Riske over at Pro Football Focus pointed out that the Rams allow a high rate of completions in the short and intermediate middle of the field areas. Now think about where Deebo Samuel is targeted. Yeah, that seems like a matchup worth betting on. Samuel was banged up in the divisional round win over the Packers, so this doesn't come without risk. But the fact that this line is already lower than his expected receiving yards per game (59.5) when Samuel is a YAC machine tells me that the injury is already somewhat priced in.
Pick: Samuel over 51.5 receiving yards (-115)
Marks: The 49ers have won six straight games against the Rams. And to the surprise of many, Garoppolo ranks top-10 in QB rating this season and has had success against the Rams' defense (498 yards, three TDs, two INTs with a 75% completions percentage and nine yards per attempt). The 49ers have taken a more impressive road to get to the NFC Championship Game, with back-to-back road upsets, while the Rams defeated a subpar Cardinals team and an anemic (for most of the game) Bucs offense. This game will be won in the trenches, where the 49ers have the better offensive line, and can get to Stafford without blitzing (only 14% blitz rate).
Picks: 49ers +3.5, 49ers ML (+155), Kupp anytime TD (-150), Samuel anytime TD (-110), Stafford under 279.5 passing yards (-115), Garoppolo over 232.5 passing yards (-115), Akers under 63.5 rushing yards (-115), Samuel over 39.5 rushing yards (115), Aaron Donald under 4.5 tackles+assists (-155), Eli Mitchell most championship Sunday rushing yards (2-1 at DK)
Moody: Garoppolo may surprise you, but I believe he will pass for more than 232.5 yards against the Rams. He averaged 254 passing yards per game during the regular season and in seven games against the Rams is averaging 258 passing yards per game. George Kittle, who is averaging 78.4 receiving yards per game against the Rams (nine games), and Samuel will be the 49ers' top pass-catchers. The run, of course, will continue to be a big part of San Francisco's strategy. Over the past two weeks, Samuel has averaged 10 rushing attempts and 55 rushing yards per game. Meanwhile, Elijah Mitchell has surpassed 20 touches in seven consecutive games.
Opposite of Cooper Kupp, Odell Beckham Jr. has established himself as the Rams' No. 2 wide receiver. In two games against the 49ers, Kupp amassed 240 receiving yards. There is a good chance he will be double-teamed, which would give Beckham the chance to dominate in single coverage, as his confidence in the Rams offense should be at its peak. Over the last two games, he is averaging 12.3 yards per reception.
Picks: Garoppolo over 232.5 passing yards (-115), Kittle over 52.5 receiving yards (-110), Samuel over 53.5 receiving yards (-115), Samuel over 39.5 rushing yards (-115), Mitchell over 69.5 rushing yards (-115), Beckham over 51.5 receiving yards (-115)
AFC Championship
(4) Cincinnati Bengals at (2) Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 54.5)
Walder: Ninety-nine times out of 100, if I'm picking a side, I roll with FPI. It's not that FPI has a strong take here, but if it had to pick a side, it would take the Bengals. I'm going the other way. Last week's game was indicative of why; Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs threw up 42 on an elite defense, while Joe Burrow was sacked nine times by a mediocre Titans pass rush. It's not a new problem! The Bengals' offensive line and Burrow's propensity to take sacks have been an issue all year. We should not mistake the Bengals being one of the four remaining teams with being one of the four best teams. Cincinnati ranked 14th and 10th in EPA per play on offense and defense, respectively. That's good but not great. I expect the Chiefs to win big.
Props-wise, I think both Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are overpriced. The two Bengals receivers' expected receiving yards per game based on information about their targets from NFL Next Gen Stats have been 54.5 and 56.1, respectively. Even if we look only at Week 16 on for Chase, where he has posted over 100 yards in four out of five games, his expected receiving yards per game has been only 67.7. As good as he is, he doesn't usually get the target volume required to justify this line.
Picks: Chiefs -7, Chase under 88.5 receiving yards (-115), Higgins under 69.5 receiving yards (-115)
Schatz: The secret to this week's Joe Mixon prop is receiving rather than rushing. The Chiefs' problematic run defense was primarily an issue early in the season. They've ranked 12th in run defense DVOA since Week 6 (including the two playoff games). But the Chiefs also ranked 26th this year in DVOA covering running backs in the passing game. After adjusting for opponents, Kansas City allowed over 50 receiving yards to running backs each game. Mixon has put up at least 40 receiving yards in three of his past four games, with over 75 total yards in each game and over 100 yards in two of them.
Pick: Mixon over 89.5 rushing/receiving yards (-110)
Fortenbaugh: The look-ahead line for this matchup was Kansas City -6.5, and that was after we saw Cincinnati squeak by Tennessee. What's important to note here is that based on the point spread, last Sunday's showdown at Arrowhead resulted in the most likely of outcomes -- the Chiefs winning a close game. But despite that result, the look-ahead line moved from K.C. -6.5 through the key number of 7 all the way to K.C. -7.5 at some shops. I think that's an overadjustment. Kansas City's defense is mediocre at best, as evidenced by the fact that it surrendered an average of 25.5 points per game over its past six outings, three of which came against lousy offenses in Pittsburgh (twice) and Denver. The back door is open for business thanks to the hook.
Pick: Bengals at +7.5 or better
Dolan: I expect the Chiefs to start with their foot on the gas, hitting over 16.5 points in the first half. The Chiefs averaged 28 points per game in the regular season and have scored 42 points in each playoff game this postseason. There were a total of 45 points scored in the first half between these two on Jan. 2, with the Chiefs accounting for 28. K.C. hit over this number with 21 first-half points against the Steelers in the wild-card round, while failing to hit over this number with 14 first-half points against the Bills last week. But again, the Bills were ranked No. 1 on defense. It's a much different story against a Bengals defense that could get torn apart again by the Chiefs' explosive offense.
While the Bengals pulled off playoff wins over the Raiders and Titans, the reality is that their offensive line is not great at protecting Joe Burrow. He was sacked nine times against Tennessee and has been sacked 11 times this postseason. Burrow was sacked 51 times during the regular season. That's why I am looking at Chiefs DT Chris Jones to record a sack. He led Kansas City with nine sacks in the regular season and had two against the Bengals in their earlier matchup. Jones gets to Burrow at least once in this game.
Pick: Chiefs first half over 16.5, Jones records sack (+100)
Moody: Mixon has averaged 20.5 touches and 90.5 total yards per game during the Bengals' playoff run. Against a Chiefs defense that ranks near the bottom in run stop win rate, this should continue. On the receiving end, Chase racked up 266 receiving yards against the Chiefs earlier this season. Through two playoff games, he has been targeted 18 times and is the youngest player in league history to record at least 100 receiving yards in multiple games. With 248 total yards through two games, Chase has amassed the most yards by a rookie receiver. He will play a key role against the Chiefs. C.J. Uzomah has caught 13 of 14 targets for 135 yards so far in the playoffs, and with all the wide receivers the Bengals have at their disposal, he is often in single coverage. Burrow will continue to target him frequently.
Speaking of quarterbacks, Burrow had 446 passing yards against the Chiefs in their regular-season matchup. Josh Allen showed last week that Kansas City's secondary is vulnerable. On the other side, Patrick Mahomes is averaging 310.6 passing yards and 2.5 TD passes per game through 10 career playoff games, and he also has plenty of weapons. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce will remain the Chiefs' top two options, but Byron Pringle, who has 22 targets since Week 18, has moved ahead of Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson as the preferred third target in the passing game.
Picks: Mixon over 89.5 rushing/receiving yards (-110), Chase over 88.5 receiving yards (-115), Uzomah over 35.5 receiving yards (-110), Burrow over 287.5 passing yards (-115), Mahomes over 291.5 passing yards (-115), Mahomes over 2.5 passing TDs (+110), Pringle over 37.5 receiving yards (-115)
Marks: The Chiefs come into this matchup with an impressive win against the Bills, while the Bengals limp in after the Titans shot themselves in the foot. Kansas City has been great at home, winning six straight and averaging 28 PPG. The Bengals tend to get off to a low start and rank in the bottom tier in offense, defense and defensive third-down conversion rate in the first half of games. The Queen City's offensive line is subpar and has allowed 64 sacks this season.
Picks: Chiefs -2.5 first quarter, Chiefs -4 first half, Chiefs to score first and win (-105), Kelce anytime TD (-130), Chase under 88.5 yards (-115), Mixon over 3.5 receptions (-165), Evan McPherson over 6.5 points (-140), Chiefs -1 in 6-point teaser with 49ers +7.5, Chiefs and 49ers in two-team ML parlay (+227), Mahomes most Championship Sunday passing yards (+175 at DraftKings)