The NFL postseason is just one week away from the conference championships. Sunday features the Rams visiting the defending champion Buccaneers, with the divisional round culminating in a matchup between the Bills and Chiefs in Kansas City.
Fantasy guru Matthew Berry, betting analysts Doug Kezirian (17-30-2, 0-1 last week), Tyler Fulghum (25-33, 0-0), Joe Fortenbaugh (57-52-2, 3-5-1), Anita Marks (324-286, 14-15) and Erin Dolan (7-5, 3-0), fantasy and sports betting analyst Eric Moody (149-150, 6-13), ESPN Stats & Information's Seth Walder (64-58, 3-4) and Mackenzie Kraemer (8-15, 0-0), sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (30-31-1, 0-1) and Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz (63-47-1, 3-1-1) will provide their top plays across the NFL landscape. (Records through wild-card weekend).
Here are their best bets for Sunday's divisional-round games.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook as of Thursday (unless otherwise indicated).
Jump to: Rams-Buccaneers | Bills-Chiefs
Sunday's best bets
(4) Los Angeles Rams at (2) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 48.5)
Moody: Mike Evans was sensational for the Buccaneers in their wild-card win over the Eagles, catching nine of his 10 targets for 117 yards. Tom Brady is an expert at exploiting weak spots in coverage, through patience and skill. Evans, however, will have to deal with Rams cornerback Jalen Ramsey this week. Brady and the Buccaneers will continue to rely heavily on the passing game, so the offense has an opportunity to flow through Rob Gronkowski. Los Angeles' safety issues have been widely publicized, and this creates an opening for Gronk to have a monster game. Only 31 receiving yards were recorded by the veteran tight end against the Eagles last week, but he gained 252 receiving yards in the final two regular-season games.
Against the Cardinals last week, Cooper Kupp led the Rams in targets (7), receptions (5) and receiving yards (61). An incredible 1,947 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns were his stats for the regular season. With three career games against the Buccaneers, Kupp averages 120.7 receiving yards per game. Matthew Stafford is likely to target him early and often.
Picks: Evans under 70.5 receiving yards (-115), Gronkowski over 63.5 receiving yards (-115), Kupp over 100.5 receiving yards (-130)
Schatz: Obviously, Matthew Stafford makes the Rams' offense go with Sean McVay's passing game, but there are reasons to believe his passing yardage total could dip this week. The Buccaneers cut opposing passing yards by an average of 10%, the second-highest cut in the league behind Buffalo's defense. They've allowed less than 260 passing yards in five straight games and finished the year 10th in pass defense DVOA. And while their run defense is known for being stout, it hasn't been as strong in recent weeks, only 18th in weighted DVOA. So it might make sense for the Rams to use the ground game more. Also note that Stafford averaged 11 yards per game less when he was on the road instead of playing under the Sofi Stadium roof.
Pick: Stafford under 280.5 passing yards (-115)
Walder: The Ryan Succop over burned me last week. After touting Bruce Arians' fourth-down conservatism, the coach played aggressively in an end-of-game scenario. Up 16 points with 1:16 left in the game, Arians opted to go for it on fourth-and-1 from the Eagles' 14, leaving Succop with just one field goal for the game. But I remain undeterred. In general, Arians is overly conservative, and that creates more field goal attempts.
In addition, the Bucs have been playing with heavier personnel lately. Since Week 16 (the first week after Chris Godwin was injured), Tampa Bay used two tight ends on 41% of plays, per NFL Next Gen Stats, a big increase over the 22% rate in the team's first 15 weeks. As such, I'm rolling with the over on Cameron Brate's fairly low receiving line.
Picks: Succop over 1.5 made field goals (-110), Brate over 16.5 receiving yards (-115)
Marks: The Rams beat the Bucs earlier this season by 10 points, and they are a much better team now than they were back in Week 3. They have Cam Akers back, added Odell Beckham Jr. and improved their defense with Von Miller. Brady is going to have his hands full against the Rams' pass rush without a healthy offensive line to protect him, and he is working with fewer weapons than he is accustomed to. Brady is one of the worst quarterbacks when under pressure, sporting a 45% completion percentage under duress. He is also 0-2 vs. the Rams with McVay, and McVay is 3-0 this season on the right coast. Stafford needs to have a turnover-free performance and let his defense do the dirty work.
Picks: Rams +3, first half under 24, Beckham anytime TD (+160), Kupp anytime TD (-135), Aaron Donald over 3.5 solo tackles (+135), Brady INT (-105)
(3) Buffalo Bills at (2) Kansas City Chiefs (-2, 54.5)
Fortenbaugh: Something clicked in the locker room of Buffalo's Week 14 loss at Tampa Bay. Getting blown out 24-3, the Bills rallied to force overtime at 27-27 before ultimately falling 33-27. But the team had gotten its mojo back and since that game has ripped off five straight wins by an average of 18 points per game. Buffalo won in Kansas City earlier this year and won't be intimidated by what Arrowhead Stadium offers in the postseason, having experienced that during last year's AFC Championship Game. Both offenses are elite, but the Bills hold a big edge on the defensive side of the ball.
Pick: Bills +2.5 (at time of bet), over 54.5, Bills +8.5 in 6-point teaser with Packers PK
Dolan: My favorite play of the weekend is the Bills to get things rolling in the first quarter. With Patrick Mahomes under center, the Chiefs have gone scoreless in the first quarter in four of nine playoff games. In that stretch, they have trailed in five of those first quarters, including going down by nine to the Bills in the AFC championship last January. When these teams met in Week 5, the Bills were up 7-3 in the first quarter before erupting for 17 points in the second. The Bills run the eighth-fastest offensive tempo in first halves and have a 45-2 first-quarter edge over their past four games. Kansas started off slow against Pittsburgh, while the Bills came out hot against the Pats. The Bills will be up in the first quarter.
Pick: Bills first-quarter money line
Marks: These teams combined for 13 touchdowns last week, but I expect this game to be much different. The Bills won 38-20 the last time these teams played, but the Chiefs have been a much different team since Week 4. They added Melvin Ingram to their defense, and since Week 6, their defense has the second-best turnover rate in the NFL at 18%. Mahomes and crew turned the ball over four times in the previous matchup, but they have been much better protecting the ball since Week 12. The key will be for the Chiefs' front seven to get after Josh Allen, who sports a 47% competition percentage under pressure.
Pick: Chiefs -2, Devin Singletary anytime TD (-105), Travis Kelce anytime TD (-110), Allen INT (-115)