Matchups play a huge part in fantasy managers' weekly lineup decisions. When choosing between two (or more) similarly talented players, the decision often boils down to: Which one has the best matchup?
Ah, but there's that word again, one all too familiar in the fantasy football lexicon. What, exactly, constitutes a favorable or unfavorable matchup?
This is where the "Matchups Map" comes in. Each week, I'll provide a schedule-independent method to determine strength of positional matchups, using the most recent, relevant data. Check back for updated numbers each week, including matchups highlights at each position, both favorable and unfavorable, based upon those statistics. For these purposes, we will use PPR (Point Per Reception) scoring.
"Adj. FPA," or Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed, reflects how far above or below a player's average that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. This is a team-wide analysis, so a plus-5.0 Adj. FPA to running backs would mean that the defense afforded its opponents' entire running back corps five additional points on average, which should be kept in mind when evaluating running back committees. All data is from the past five weeks' NFL action.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, and not every unfavorable matchup should be avoided. To get the most complete recipe for whom to start and sit, consult my weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Favorable matchup: Justin Fields, Chicago Bears (at Seattle Seahawks). It might not seem like it by watching, but Fields is slowly improving with experience. In his four most recent full games, he has completed 62.5% of his pass attempts while averaging 7.6 yards per attempt, a big jump from his numbers during his first five NFL starts, when he completed 57.8% of his passes while averaging 6.4 yards per throw. Fields' accuracy has also spiked, as after he was off target with his throws 19.5% of the time in his first five starts, that number has dipped to 14.7% in the past two weeks.
No, it's not enough to elevate him into the QB1 tier at the position, but it's good timing considering the matchup he'll face in Week 16, one that should make him a strong QB2 in two-quarterback leagues and a viable plug-in for those in a pinch. The Seahawks have bottom-eight numbers in terms of sacks (25), forced fumbles (5) and interceptions (8), all of which have been problems for Fields during his rookie year, and they've surrendered the league's most passing yards (4,014). Colt McCoy (22.92 points in Week 11) and Davis Mills (18.04, Week 14) are two of the more recent examples of lower-tier fantasy quarterbacks who have capitalized on this matchup.
Unfavorable matchup: Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (versus Indianapolis Colts). That was quite the stinker he delivered against the Detroit Lions last week, and it hardly inspires confidence in him heading into this substantially tougher matchup. Murray scored only 12.58 fantasy points, his second-worst output of 2021 and seventh worst in 43 career NFL starts, and for only the third time in his career he fell short of both five rushing attempts and 0.50 fantasy points on said chances. His performance has been regressing at the absolute worst time. These Colts have been rock solid against quarterbacks in their past five games (spanning six weeks due to the Week 14 bye), allowing only 11.49 fantasy points during that time span, including holding Josh Allen to 16.16 points in Week 11 and Tom Brady to 11.24 points in Week 12. This isn't to say Murray can't bounce back, or even finish with QB1 numbers. But he should be expected to be in the low end of that tier, if not outside it.
Running backs
Favorable matchup: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs (versus Pittsburgh Steelers). The Steelers have been getting obliterated by opposing running backs of late. In the past six weeks, opponents have averaged 36.4 PPR fantasy points combined from their backfields, most in the league, and each opponent has totaled at least 27.5 points from running backs, the only defense that can claim that.
The Tennessee Titans, last week's highlighted backfield, and one that similarly to the Chiefs utilizes a degree of running back-by-committee, saw D'Onta Foreman score 15.5 PPR fantasy points, Dontrell Hilliard score 9.9 points and Jeremy McNichols score 8.1 points against this defense. That's good news for Edwards-Helaire, who, since his return from a knee injury in Week 11, has 45 of 74 carries among Chiefs running backs. He remains the team's top option, and while his fantasy production has been lackluster in his four games since activation, his 69% of offensive snaps played in Week 15 bodes well for his enjoying a breakthrough game this week.
Unfavorable matchup: Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns (at Green Bay Packers). A 23-carry, 16.3-PPR-fantasy-point Week 15 might give him the look of restored RB1 status, but you should be cautious. That was barely more PPR fantasy points than his seasonal average (15.9), and it came against a Las Vegas Raiders that has 7.8 Adjusted Fantasy Points Added for the season, third most in the league, meaning it wasn't the back-to-full-force performance that it might seem. Chubb also has Kareem Hunt's (COVID-19, ankle) potential return threatening to cut back into his workload, not to mention Baker Mayfield's (COVID-19) likely return shifting the game plan somewhat back toward the pass.
The Packers have been rather stingy against running backs of late, as Dalvin Cook (22.5 PPR fantasy points in Week 11) is the only one to reach the 20-point plateau against them since early October, and he needed 25 touches to do it, while Darrell Henderson Jr. (17.3 points, Week 12), David Montgomery (14.1, Week 14) and Devonta Freeman (3.4, Week 15) had relatively quiet games against them.
Wide receivers
Favorable matchup: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions (at Atlanta Falcons). He's on quite the hot streak, having scored 15-plus PPR fantasy points in three consecutive weeks, during which time he has team bests with 35 targets and a 34.3% target share. While that lofty a role might be difficult to sustain, St. Brown should remain Jared Goff's top receiving target these next three weeks, especially with T.J. Hockenson (thumb surgery) now ruled out for the season. This matchup heightens St. Brown's chances at a third straight game exceeding 15 points, as the opposing Falcons have afforded wide receivers 3.1 Adjusted Fantasy Points Added and 1.84 points per target for the season, both sixth most in the league.
Most notably, the Falcons struggle against slot receivers (where St. Brown has run 73% of his routes for the season), having recently served up big games to CeeDee Lamb (28.6 PPR fantasy points in Week 10) and Chris Godwin (30.2, Week 13), with both of them scoring more than half their points in those games while lining up out of the slot.
Unfavorable matchup: Christian Kirk, Arizona Cardinals (versus Indianapolis Colts). Conversely, Kirk is at a distinct matchups disadvantage this week, as a receiver who runs the majority of his routes out of the slot (77% for the season). The Colts have been the toughest defense against wide receivers overall the past five weeks, with league lows in Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (minus-10.3) and PPR fantasy points per target allowed (1.15) during that time span, but they've been especially good at containing slot receivers. Godwin, for example, faced this defense in Week 12, ran 34 routes, saw only five targets and scored 4.7 PPR fantasy points. Cole Beasley (6.3 points in Week 11) and Jakobi Meyers (11.3, Week 15) also had relatively quiet games against the Colts in the past five weeks. Kirk did play 97% of the Cardinals' offensive snaps, ran 51 routes and saw 12 targets last week, but those will be difficult numbers to repeat, and the matchup itself will make it tough for him to be more than a WR3.
Tight ends
Favorable matchup: Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears (at Seattle Seahawks). George Kittle (39.6 PPR fantasy points in Week 13) and Zach Ertz (28.8 points, Week 11) revealed the Seahawks' struggles containing pass-catching tight ends, and Kmet plays an important part in the aforementioned Fields' game plan. In the past four weeks, Kmet has played 81% of the Bears' offensive snaps while leading the team with a 22% target share, with his 14.5 points of Week 12 against the Lions and 13.1 points of Week 15 against the Minnesota Vikings good barometers as to what he might do facing a similarly strong matchup to those.
Unfavorable matchup: Hunter Henry, New England Patriots (versus Buffalo Bills). He has had an excellent season, ranking 10th among tight ends with his 142.1 PPR fantasy points, but has also been a touchdown-dependent fantasy performer. Henry's 14 end zone targets are tied for the position's most, and he has averaged a pedestrian 5.6 points in the six games in which he has failed to find the end zone.
Here's the problem: The Bills have allowed only one tight end to exceed 12.2 PPR fantasy points in a game against them all season, Travis Kelce's 17.7 back in Week 5. Henry's last game against the Bills, in Week 13, was a throwaway from an analytics perspective, as his Patriots attempted only three passes all day, but in the rematch, he'll almost assuredly run more routes but with mediocre odds of putting up a big fantasy score.