Offensive and defensive linemen might not run the rock themselves, but they can still influence fantasy football.
Each week in this spot we break down matchups in the trenches, and how that information affects your lineup decisions. The basis of the discussion are our win rates -- run block win rate and run stop win rate, as well as pass block win rate and pass rush win rate -- which quantify line performance based on player tracking data using NFL Next Gen Stats.
Earlier in the season we used the differential between the win rates to determine the best matchup. But in the back half of the season, we're highlighting the players facing the weakest -- and strongest -- defensive win rate teams. The reason: At this stage of the season the blocking that a running back is getting from his offensive line is baked into our perception of him. What changes week to week is the defense. Think of it like a receiver who catches passes from the same QB every game, but each week is squaring off against a different corner.
Below we break down the Week 16 games, identifying the most advantageous and least advantageous matchups based on the strength of the opponent's defensive win rates, for both run and pass.
Let's dive in!
Note: All stats are as of Tuesday, ahead of the final two rescheduled Week 15 games.
Advantageous Run-Blocking Matchups
Darrell Henderson Jr. and Sony Michel, Los Angeles Rams (at Vikings)
Rams' run block win rate rank: seventh
Vikings' run stop win rate rank: 32nd
The Vikings actually held David Montgomery to an inefficient 3.3 yards per carry on Monday Night Football in Week 15. But don't be fooled by one good game against an inept Chicago offense. Minnesota still ranks last in run stop win rate and third worst in yards per carry allowed.
Henderson and/or Michel are the beneficiaries this week, and in a much more competent offense than Chicago's they should be able to take advantage. Entering Tuesday, Rams tackle Andrew Whitworth, guard David Edwards, and center Brian Allen all ranked in the top 10 at their position in RBWR.
Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers (at Chiefs)
Steelers' run block win rate rank: 31st
Chiefs' run stop win rate rank: 31st
Weakness on weakness here, but Harris should catch a break here much in the same way as when he showed up on this list in Week 14 against Minnesota and earned 4.7 yards per carry -- well above his 3.6 season average. The Chiefs are better defensively now than they were earlier in the year. But the run stopping is still not a strength, and they surrendered 4.9 yards per carry against the Chargers last week. Harris brings huge upside to fantasy managers in the playoffs this week.
Disadvantageous Run-Blocking Matchups
Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings (vs. Rams)
Vikings' run block win rate rank: 10th
Rams' run stop win rate rank: first
I shout them out every week in this space, but it's for good reason: The Rams' run-stopping game is excellent. From Greg Gaines to Aaron Donald to A'Shawn Robinson to Von Miller, they're all either elite or above average in run stop win rate, and that makes life tough for opposing running backs. That has panned out in terms of efficiency, too, as opponents are averaging 3.9 yards per carry against the Rams this season, third lowest among all defenses.
The Vikings are solid in run blocking -- second-year guard Ezra Cleveland stands out in that department -- but it's still a mismatch against the Rams.
San Francisco 49ers backfield (vs. Rams)
49ers' run block win rate rank: 17th
Titans' run stop win rate rank: 2nd
Tennessee has made a little move here, creeping up to the No. 2 spot in RSWR. Jeffery Simmons leads the way in the interior of the defensive line, ranking 10th there. And recent addition Zach Cunningham ranks first among all linebackers in the metric. Because Cunningham has played only one game as a Titan thus far, it's possible we're even underrating Tennessee's run defense going forward.
Advantageous Pass-Blocking Matchups
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins (at Saints)
Dolphins' pass block win rate rank: 32nd
Saints' pass rush win rate rank: 32nd
I know what you're thinking: Wait a minute, didn't we just watch New Orleans' pass rush dominate against the Bucs? Yeah, this caught me by surprise, too. But over the course of the season, pass rush win rate has not been a fan. I've had my suspicions that PRWR might underrate bull rushers like Cameron Jordan, so that might be part of it.
But Tagovailoa certainly is hoping that PRWR is right and the Saints' pass rush isn't as good as their performance last week suggests, because he gets no help from his offensive line.
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons (vs. Lions)
Falcons pass block win rate rank: 27nd
Lions pass rush win rate rank: 31st
Lions pass-rusher Charles Harris deserves some credit: He has played well this year and ranks 16th in pass rush win rate at edge this season, in addition to 7.5 sacks. But he's also basically all Detroit has right now (Julian Okwara is their next-best pass rusher, but he missed last week's game because of an ankle injury). That should give a Falcons offensive line that has struggled in pass protection a bit of a breather in Week 16.
Disadvantageous Pass-Blocking Matchup
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings (vs. Rams)
Vikings pass block win rate rank: 26th
Rams pass rush win rate rank: first
The difference between Aaron Donald's win rate at defensive tackle and the No. 2 player in the category (Javon Hargrave, 8 points lower) is now twice as large as the difference between Donald and the No. 2 player in the category (Chris Jones, 4 points lower) last season when Donald won Defensive Player of the Year.
Add in Von Miller and Greg Gaines and Cousins is going to be on the run.
Sack Watch
Jarran Reed, Seattle Seahawks (vs. Bears)
If D.J. Wonnum, he of an 8% pass rush win rate, can manage three sacks against Justin Fields in Week 15, then surely anyone can grab at least one when facing the Bears' rookie. Fields' 10.3% sack rate is a league high, and Reed just happens to be the player with the best chance to take advantage next week.
Dawuane Smoot, Jacksonville Jaguars (at Jets)
Smoot has been decent this year with a 16% pass rush win rate, roughly average for starters at the position. This week, he has a great opportunity in facing Zach Wilson and his 9.6% sack rate (second only to Fields) but also an opponent the Jaguars might, conceivably, be beating (and therefore force into deep passing situations).