Matchups play a huge part in fantasy managers' weekly lineup decisions. When choosing between two (or more) similarly talented players, the decision often boils down to: Which one has the best matchup?
Ah, but there's that word again, one all too familiar in the fantasy football lexicon. What, exactly, constitutes a favorable or unfavorable matchup?
This is where the "Matchups Map" comes in. Each week, I'll provide a schedule-independent method to determine strength of positional matchups, using the most recent, relevant data. Check back for updated numbers each week, including matchup highlights at each position, both favorable and unfavorable, based upon those statistics. For these purposes, we will use PPR (Point Per Reception) scoring.
"Adj. FPA," or Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed, reflects how far above or below a player's average that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. This is a team-wide analysis, so a plus-5.0 Adj. FPA to running backs would mean that the defense afforded its opponents' entire running back corps five additional points on average, which should be kept in mind when evaluating running back committees. All data is from the past five weeks' NFL action.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, and not every unfavorable matchup should be avoided. To get the most complete recipe for whom to start and sit, consult my weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Favorable matchup: Trevor Siemian, New Orleans Saints (versus Atlanta Falcons). Jameis Winston's season-ending knee injury places the Saints' quarterback position in the hands of Week 8 relief star Trevor Siemian, who will get a home game against a Falcons defense that's done very little to stop opposing quarterbacks to this point.
Unfavorable matchup: Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (versus Los Angeles Chargers). Mobility has not helped quarterbacks facing the Chargers this season, as Heinicke (10.58, Week 1) and Lamar Jackson (11.78, Week 6) had quiet days against this defense. For the season, the Chargers have afforded quarterbacks an average of 0.53 fantasy points per rushing attempt, sixth lowest in the league, and they've been similarly dominant against passing, too, with a league-low two instances of an individual 15-point effort allowed to quarterbacks. Patrick Mahomes, for example, needed 44 passing attempts to score 22.9 points against the Chargers in Week 3.
Hurts should put forth a borderline top-10 fantasy score at the position simply by his rushing contributions, but if he's forced to the air frequently, he'll probably struggle. I'd expect some turnovers if the Chargers mount an early lead.
Running backs
Favorable matchup: Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders (at New York Giants). A chest contusion forced Jacobs from his Week 7 game early, one that saw him score 15-plus PPR fantasy points for a third consecutive week. After a bye week's rest, he is expected to suit up and take on his usual primary running back role. It's a cozy matchup for him in his return to action, and while the matchup itself doesn't rate one of the best at the position -- this is a week when many of the best are bye-week teams or those facing proven elite commodities -- it's one fantasy managers should certainly exploit.
The Giants have a ninth-ranked 3.0 Adjusted Fantasy Points Added for the season, or 11th-ranked 2.0 simply during the past five weeks, and in three of their past four games have seen an individual running back score at least 17 points: Ezekiel Elliott (25.2 in Week 5), Darrell Henderson Jr. (24.7, Week 6) and Darrel Williams (17.0, Week 8).
Unfavorable matchup: Cordarrelle Patterson, Atlanta Falcons (at New Orleans Saints). From a season-long perspective, there has been no tougher defense against running backs than the Saints, whose minus-7.2 Adjusted Fantasy Points Added is the fewest in the league. They've allowed only three solid games to an individual running back all year, with the best case to be made for Patterson that all three came from pass-catching backs: Christian McCaffrey scored 24.7 PPR fantasy points against them in Week 2, Saquon Barkley managed 29.6 points in Week 4 and Antonio Gibson tallied 21.2 points in Week 5.
Patterson typically does a good amount of his damage as a receiver, with the likelihood of a 12-15 touch game keeping him afloat in the RB2 tier, but he's much less apt to break off a big play against this stingy a defense. Calvin Ridley's absence should make it a bit easier for the Saints to key on Patterson and Kyle Pitts, so be aware that they have lower ceilings than usual for Week 9.
Wide receivers
Favorable matchup: Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans (at Miami Dolphins). Few defenses have struggled to contain opposing wide receivers like the Dolphins have. They have seen nine different wide receivers score 15-plus PPR fantasy points against them, and six of those have occurred in the past four weeks alone: Antonio Brown (31.4 points) and Mike Evans (29.3) in Week 5, Marvin Jones Jr. (23.0) in Week 6, Russell Gage (16.7) in Week 8 and Cole Beasley (21.0) and Stefon Diggs (15.0) in Week 9.
Cornerbacks Xavien Howard, Byron Jones and Nik Needham have particularly struggled in coverage, affording the position a combined 109.4 PPR fantasy points on 57 targets during that time, so Cooks shouldn't have trouble finding space regardless of which defender he's aligned against, though Howard might well shadow him in this game. Cooks' 29% target share for the season says he should get plenty of opportunities to pile up the stats this week.
Unfavorable matchup: Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers (at Philadelphia Eagles). The Eagles have been the No. 1 schedule-adjusted defense against wide receivers for the season, with minus-9.8 Adjusted Fantasy Points Added, with much of the reason being the play of cornerback Darius Slay. He has afforded wide receivers 41.2 PPR fantasy points on 116 routes, which helps explain how, since Tyreek Hill scored 47.6 points against Slay and the Eagles in Week 4, this defense has seen opposing WR1s total only 28.2 points on 20 targets the past four weeks. Mike Evans was one of those, scoring 4.7 points on four targets in Week 6, and Williams, like Evans, runs the majority of his routes on the perimeter, meaning he'll draw Slay most often in coverage. Justin Herbert should target Williams enough to keep him fantasy relevant, but this might be a second consecutive quiet week for the wide receiver.
Tight ends
Favorable matchup: Jared Cook, Los Angeles Chargers (at Philadelphia Eagles). Based on seasonal usage, Cook is more of a TE2, checking in 16th at the position in PPR fantasy points (61.0), 10th in targets (38) and tied for 16th in red zone targets (5). Cook could, however, step up facing this soft a matchup at what has been an injury-plagued position, as the Eagles have been one of the few defenses to struggle at containing opposing tight ends. This is a defense that, just in the past three weeks alone, has seen O.J. Howard score 16.9 PPR fantasy points on seven targets (Week 6), Foster Moreau score 18.0 on six targets (Week 7) and T.J. Hockenson score 18.9 on 11 targets (Week 8). That's perhaps a product of opponents choosing to avoid the aforementioned Slay in coverage at times, which should be the case for Herbert and the Chargers, too. Consider Cook a borderline top-10 tight end for Week 9.
Unfavorable matchup: Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers (versus Chicago Bears). The rookie's role has expanded in a big way in his past two games, as he had 20% (Week 6) and 25% (Week 8) target shares and totaled 27.2 PPR fantasy points in them. The future certainly looks bright for the second-round pick, but for Week 9, his matchup against the Bears rates among the least attractive on his remaining schedule. Their minus-4.3 Adjusted Fantasy Points Added is second fewest in the league, and this is the defense that held T.J. Hockenson to 8.2 points on eight targets in Week 4 and Darren Waller to 8.5 points on eight targets in Week 5. The Bears are especially tough against tight ends in the red zone, which is where Freiermuth would be expected to be a big factor, as quarterbacks are a mere 1-of-8 targeting the position in those situations.