Welcome to the Week 10 Fantasy Football Playbook!
This will be your game-by-game guide to the week's slate of NFL games, featuring score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for both season-long and DFS leagues. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for borderline starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in both raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player may be ranked slightly higher or lower due to other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to possible updates during the weekend, though at the very minimum, rankings will updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys
Lineup locks: Dak Prescott, Cordarrelle Patterson, Ezekiel Elliott, Kyle Pitts
Matt Ryan is playing well of late, but that hasn't led to consistent fantasy output. Ryan has a pair of third-place finishes this season, but otherwise has no finishes better than 11th. He's still a low-ceiling QB2.
Mike Davis has reached double-digit fantasy points in six out of eight games this season, but his ceiling is capped with Patterson now Atlanta's lead back. Davis is averaging 13.5 touches per game, though, and remains in the flex discussion.
Neither CeeDee Lamb nor Amari Cooper have been as dominant as expected this season, and both are coming off a game in which they combined for 10.0 fantasy points. Especially with Michael Gallup set to return, Lamb and Cooper should be viewed as WR2 plays. Gallup is a risky start in his return, but he's on the deep-league flex radar. Russell Gage got back on track last week after taking a zero in Week 8 and now has a pair of top-20 fantasy weeks over the last three weeks. Gage will be Atlanta's No. 1 wide receiver for as long as Calvin Ridley is out, so the slot man is also on the flex radar.
Dalton Schultz put up 13-plus fantasy points in four straight games prior to the Cowboys' bye, but has a total of just 13 points in the two games since. He's seen five-plus targets in seven of his eight games, though, and remains in the TE1 mix.
Over/Under: 51 (2nd highest in Week 10)
Win Prob: Cowboys 80% (5th highest)
New Orleans Saints @ Tennessee Titans
Lineup locks: Alvin Kamara, A.J. Brown
Ryan Tannehill still hasn't posted any finish better than eighth this season and, although he has a solid floor, he's not a great streaming option in a tough matchup this week. Trevor Siemian doesn't have a great group of targets and is in constant danger of a benching with Taysom Hill looming. The veteran quarterback should not be in lineups.
The post-Derrick Henry era began in Week 9 with Jeremy McNichols (seven carries and three targets on 25 snaps) leading a Titans backfield that also included Adrian Peterson (10 carries and one target on 18 snaps) and D'Onta Foreman (five carries on 12 snaps). Peterson's role only figures to increase, so he's the slightly preferred flex over McNichols this week. Mark Ingram II has 22 touches in two games with New Orleans, but he'll only be a must-start if Kamara is sidelined.
Julio Jones has reached double-digit fantasy points just once (Week 2) since joining Tennessee, but he has a decent matchup against the man-heavy Saints and is on the WR3 radar this week. Five of Marquez Callaway's eight games have ended with single-digit fantasy points. New Orleans' top wideout is no more than a flex.
The Saints finally appear to be taking the training wheels off of Adam Trautman, as the second-year tight end has seen 13 targets over the last two weeks after totaling only 12 during his first six games. Trautman is in the TE2 mix for now.
Over/Under: 46.6 (8th highest)
Win Prob: Titans 59% (13th highest)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts
Lineup lock: Jonathan Taylor
Although Carson Wentz has produced at least 17 fantasy points in eight of his nine games, his 24-point effort in Week 9 was his first finish better than ninth. He remains a high-floor QB2 and is a good streaming option this week. Trevor Lawrence has one weekly finish better than 15th (10th in Week 5) and is not close to QB1 status.
James Robinson had reeled off four straight top-12 fantasy outings prior to suffering an injury in Week 8 that held him out of Week 9. He's expected back this week and makes for a good RB2, even against a Colts defense allowing the second-fewest RB fantasy points. If Robinson is surprisingly out, Carlos Hyde leaps to flex status. Nyheim Hines exploded for 108 yards and 21 fantasy points in Week 9, but note that he totaled only 12.7 points during his previous five games. Hines is no more than a flex against Jaguars defense that has quietly allowed just 3.5 YPC (second-lowest) and 5.5 yards per target (seventh-lowest) to backs.
As good as Michael Pittman Jr. has been this season, the second-year receiver's targets have been all over the map. He's hit 12 targets three times, but has been under seven in three of his last four outings. He's best viewed as a WR2 with Shaquill Griffin likely to shadow him this week. T.Y. Hilton will be a risky flex option if he's back from injury this week.
Marvin Jones Jr. reached 18 fantasy points in Weeks 1 and 2, but has cleared 13 points in only one of his six games since. Despite the struggles, he's on the WR3 radar in a good matchup this week. Jamal Agnew (three top-40 finishes in his last four games) and Laviska Shenault Jr. (no finishes better than 35th since Week 5) get a matchup boost, as well, but neither are strong flex plays.
DFS Alert: Dan Arnold ($3,500) is the TE value play at DraftKings this week. Arnold is the 13th-highest priced tight end, which is less than Ricky Seals-Jones. Arnold has averaged 7.8 targets per game during his last four outings and sits seventh in fantasy points during the span, despite failing to score a touchdown. He's also second at the TE position in targets during those four weeks, trailing only some guy named Travis Kelce. The Colts have allowed the fifth-most TE fantasy points this season, as well as six touchdowns (third-most) and a 77% catch rate (fourth-highest).
Over/Under: 45.8 (11th highest)
Win Prob: Colts 79% (6th highest)
Cleveland Browns @ New England Patriots
Baker Mayfield has produced just one top-10 fantasy week and none better than seventh. He shouldn't be started, especially against a Patriots defense allowing the second-fewest QB fantasy points. Mac Jones has only one weekly finish better than 17th (eighth in Week 7) and seven finishes outside the top 20. He's nowhere close to QB1 status.
Nick Chubb (COVID-19), Kareem Hunt (injured reserve), Demetric Felton (COVID-19) and John Kelly (COVID-19) are all expected to miss Week 10, which re-positions D'Ernest Johnson as Cleveland's feature back. Johnson's 168-yard effort in a similar spot in Week 7 means we can trust him as a RB1/RB2 this week. We'll need to monitor New England's RB situation, as Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson both suffered head injuries in Week 9. If one is out, the other will be a RB2/flex option. If both are out, Brandon Bolden and J.J. Taylor will be flex plays. If both play, Harris is the only recommended starter.
Jarvis Landry was a major bust in a dominant Week 9 win, but his top-25 fantasy production last season when Odell Beckham Jr. was out suggests that better days are ahead. He remains a good flex. Donovan Peoples-Jones has produced 70-plus yards three times and a total of three touchdowns during his last three games. He has a total of just 14 targets during this span, however, so he's still a risky flex. Make it 131 career receptions (and counting) without a touchdown for Jakobi Meyers, who sits 13th in catches this season and remains a low-ceiling WR3.
Hunter Henry has scored exactly one touchdown in five of his last six games, but he's been held below five targets in four straight outings. He's obviously a TD-dependent TE2.
DFS Alert: Johnson ($4,700) is sure to be the chalk RB play at DraftKings this week -- and rightfully so. Johnson is the 36th-highest priced running back, but ranked fourth in RB fantasy points when operating as the lead back in Week 7. In that game, he had 22 carries, 146 yards and one touchdown on the ground, as well as 22 yards on a pair of targets. Johnson has little to no competition for snaps in a Cleveland offense that sits first in scrimmage yards, touchdowns and fantasy points by its running backs this season. The Patriots have only allowed three RB touchdowns this season, but they have allowed the third-most scrimmage yards to the position.
Over/Under: 46.3 (10th highest)
Win Prob: Patriots 61% (11th highest)
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs
Mike White appeared to be on his way to another strong (or at least solid) fantasy showing prior to suffering an injury last Thursday, but he's not a recommended play this week against a Bills defense that has allowed the fewest QB yards, touchdowns and fantasy points.
Buffalo has also allowed the fewest RB yards and fantasy points, which makes Michael Carter riskier than usual. Carter, who could lose some touches to a now-healthy Tevin Coleman (whether we like it or not), is best viewed as a mid-range RB2 but could be bailed out a bit by heavy passing-game usage. Zack Moss went down with an injury last week after posting five top-26 finishes in his first six games of the season. He's the preferred RB2 option in an elite matchup if he's able to play this week, whereas Devin Singletary leaps to RB2 status if Moss is out.
Cole Beasley (three straight top-30 finishes) and Emmanuel Sanders (five top-32 finishes in his last six games) make for fine WR3 plays. Corey Davis has been extremely inconsistent this season and will be no more than a flex option if he's back from injury this week against a Bills defense allowing -- you guessed it -- the fewest WR fantasy points. Elijah Moore was fantasy's top-scoring wideout in Week 9 and Jamison Crowder sits at WR21 in fantasy points during his five active weeks, but with Davis back and the Bills' tough defense on tap, it's hard to trust either as more than a flex.
If Dawson Knox returns from injury, he'll be back in the TE1 mix after having posted four top-12 outings during his six games. If he's out, Tommy Sweeney is no more than a back-end TE2.
Over/Under: 46.4 (9th highest)
Win Prob: Bills 91% (3rd highest)
Detroit Lions @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Lineup locks: Najee Harris, D'Andre Swift, Diontae Johnson, T.J. Hockenson
Ben Roethlisberger is going from one of the league's hardest first-half schedules to one of the easiest second-half schedules for quarterbacks. However, that may not be enough to get him to consistent QB1 value, as he's yet to deliver a single fantasy finish better than 14th this season. Similarly, Jared Goff has finished no better than 20th in six consecutive games and is nowhere close to QB1 territory.
Jamaal Williams may return from injury this week, but Swift is Detroit's clear lead back and Williams has, in turn, produced just one weekly finish better than 38th (23rd in Week 3) during his last six outings. He's a deep-league flex at best.
Chase Claypool is expected to miss a few weeks, but his replacement isn't exactly stepping into a very fantasy-productive spot. Claypool had just 92 yards (no touchdowns) on 17 targets over his last three games and he's been over 10 fantasy points only twice in seven games this season. James Washington is the next man up, but he's best viewed as a fringe flex option for now. Keep an eye on Ray-Ray McCloud in the slot, as well. None of Detroit's wide receivers make for safe starts, but Kalif Raymond is the preferred deep-league flex out of the bunch.
Pat Freiermuth has posted three consecutive top-10 fantasy weeks and has been targeted at least six times in all three of those games. Especially with Claypool now out, the rookie is in the TE1 discussion. If Eric Ebron remains out this week, Freiermuth is a TE1 lock.
DFS Alert: Johnson ($6,800) checks in as a value play at DraftKings this week. Roethlisberger's top target is handling a massive 30% target share and 37% air-yard share in his seven games this season. The heavy usage has allowed a very high floor, as he has 12-plus fantasy points in all seven games -- and six straight top-25 fantasy outings. Johnson has seen double-digit targets in 16 of his last 23 games tracing back to Week 1 of the 2020 season. The Lions have allowed the second-most WR fantasy points over expected and the highest yards per target (10.5) this season.
Over/Under: 39.8 (14th highest)
Win Prob: Steelers 83% (4th highest)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington
Lineup locks: Tom Brady, Leonard Fournette, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Terry McLaurin
Taylor Heinicke hasn't produced any top-10 fantasy outings since Week 4 and has three finishes of 20th or worse during this span. He's not on the QB1 radar against a good Tampa Bay defense.
When we last saw Antonio Gibson, he was limited to 21 of 67 snaps and was outcarried 11-8 by rookie Jaret Patterson. Perhaps Gibson will be healthy and return to clear lead-back duties this week, but he can't be trusted as anything more than a flex against the Buccaneers' elite run defense this week. J.D. McKissic's heavy passing-game work also keeps him in the flex mix, whereas Patterson shouldn't be close to lineups at this point.
Antonio Brown is still sidelined, which boosts Godwin (assuming he plays) and Evans to WR1 status and makes Tyler Johnson a deep-league flex against a Washington defense allowing the second-most WR fantasy points. Johnson will leap to the WR2/WR3 mix if Godwin sits.
Logan Thomas opened the season with a pair of top-10 fantasy weeks in his three games. He's on the deep-league TE1 radar if he's back from injury. Ricky Seals-Jones would be in the same boat if Thomas remains out. Rob Gronkowski is expected to be sidelined, but Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard are splitting TE duties, which means neither is a recommended starter.
DFS Alert: The Buccaneers just had their bye, yet Brady remains the top-scoring fantasy quarterback. At $7,600 and set up with a great matchup, he's a terrific value play at DraftKings this week. Brady has put up 18-plus fantasy points in seven of his eight games and ranks no lower than second in passing attempts, completions, yards or touchdowns. The Washington defense has allowed the most QB fantasy points and passing yards, as well as 20 passing touchdowns (second-most). Of the eight quarterbacks who have faced Washington this season, six produced 23-plus fantasy points.
Over/Under: 53 (Highest)
Win Prob: Buccaneers 91% (2nd highest)
Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals
Lineup lock: Christian McCaffrey
Kyler Murray could be back from injury this week and, while you'd be hard-pressed not to start him if he's on the field, note that his rushing production is way down and he's posted only one weekly finish better than ninth during his last six games. If Murray is out, Colt McCoy should only be considered in superflex leagues. Sam Darnold will be out for a few weeks after failing to produce any top-15 fantasy outings during his previous five games. P.J. Walker has thrown one touchdown and five interceptions on 71 career pass attempts and should obviously be nowhere close to lineups against a terrific Arizona defense.
Chase Edmonds will be out for a few weeks, which launches James Conner into the RB1 mix. Conner, who leads the NFL with 10 touchdowns, racked up 21 carries and five targets on 52 snaps with Edmonds missing all but one snap in Week 9. Lock him into lineups and consider Eno Benjamin to be a flex in the deepest of leagues.
DJ Moore hasn't produced any top-20 fantasy performances since Week 4, but his 29% target share and 40% air-yard share are impossible to ignore. Perhaps the QB change will help his cause. He remains a WR2. DeAndre Hopkins has turned into a TD-dependent WR2. That will be his value if he's back from injury this week. The value of Christian Kirk, A.J. Green and Rondale Moore will depend on the status of Hopkins, with all of the trio best viewed as boom/bust flex options.
Zach Ertz has seen either four or five targets in each of his three games with Arizona thus far, which is enough to keep him in the TE2 mix.
Over/Under: 40.8 (13th highest)
Win Prob: Cardinals 94% (Highest)
Minnesota Vikings @ Los Angeles Chargers
Lineup locks: Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson
Kirk Cousins has put together three top-12 fantasy outings this season, but he's also fallen below 14 points in three of his last five games. He is set to face a Chargers defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest QB fantasy points. As such, he's not an ideal streamer this week.
Keenan Allen has produced back-to-back top-15 fantasy weeks after managing just one during his first six games. He's found his way into the WR1 mix in a good Week 10 matchup. Mike Williams, meanwhile, has failed to reach 9.0 fantasy points in four of his last five games. Williams also has reached 22 points four times this season, though, which keeps him in the WR2 mix in a good matchup. Adam Thielen is delivering fringe WR1 numbers as usual this season and, while this is a tough matchup, he'll get a boost if the Chargers are again missing top perimeter corners Michael Davis and Asante Samuel Jr.
Tyler Conklin has reached 9.5 fantasy points in three straight games, whereas Jared Cook hasn't had any top-10 fantasy outings since Week 4 despite seeing 4.5 targets per game during this span. Both are TE2 options.
Over/Under: 48.1 (6th highest)
Win Prob: Chargers 54% (14th highest)
Philadelphia Eagles @ Denver Broncos
Lineup locks: None
Jalen Hurts has posted his two lowest fantasy-point totals during his last two games, but fantasy's No. 2-scoring quarterback remains a midrange QB1 thanks to his elite rushing production (83-494-5). He does, however, get a downgrade this week against a Denver defense allowing the third-fewest QB fantasy points. Teddy Bridgewater put up a season-high 21.9 fantasy points in Week 9, but that resulted in just his first top-10 fantasy outing of the season. Bridgewater is a fine streaming option in deep leagues, but far from being a safe QB1 play.
Melvin Gordon III remains in a split backfield with Javonte Williams, but the veteran back has reeled off back-to-back top-10 fantasy outings and four straight top-26 finishes. Williams ran for 111 yards last week, but wasn't targeted and still has only one weekly finish better than 25th to his name. Gordon is the preferred RB2/flex, but it's close. Miles Sanders remains on IR, leaving Jordan Howard (17 carries on 23 snaps last week) and Boston Scott (10 carries on 25 snaps) to handle most of the Eagles' backfield work, with Kenneth Gainwell (two carries on 11 snaps) also in the mix. Howard has posted consecutive top-20 fantasy outings on the back of three touchdowns, but note that he's yet to see a single target. In fact, no Eagles back was targeted in Week 9. Howard and Scott are no better than flex options.
Jerry Jeudy put up a 6-69-0 stat line in Week 9. Denver's slot WR is a viable WR3 this week against an Eagles defense that has been good against wide receivers, but also one that was crushed by Chargers' slot man Keenan Allen last week. Courtland Sutton averaged 16.9 fantasy points per game in six games with Jeudy sidelined, but has had just 12.3 total points in the three games where Jeudy has played. Sutton draws the Darius Slay shadow this week and is more of a fringe WR3. DeVonta Smith was fantasy's No. 2-scoring wide receiver in Week 9 and, while he's been boom/bust, he's handling near 25% of the Eagles' targets and remains a viable WR3.
Tim Patrick produced 18.5 fantasy points in Week 9, but that big game marks his first top-20 of the season and it came with Noah Fant sidelined. Speaking of Fant, he'll leap back into the TE1 mix if he's activated from the COVID-19 list. If not, Albert Okwuegbunam leaps to the TE2 mix. Dallas Goedert has a pair of top-10 fantasy weeks in the three games since Zach Ertz was traded and is a back-end TE1 play.
Over/Under: 45.5 (12th highest)
Win Prob: Broncos 63% (9th highest)
Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers
Lineup locks: Aaron Jones, Davante Adams, DK Metcalf
Aaron Rodgers returns from the COVID-19 list this week and he'll leap right back into the QB1 mix after having posted seven consecutive top-15 outings prior to the positive test. After struggling against the Chiefs, backup Jordan Love won't be a fantasy option should Rodgers remain out. Russell Wilson will return this week, although he has a tough matchup against a solid Packers' pass defense. Wilson had produced three top-10 fantasy weeks in the four full games before his injury. He's a fringe QB1.
Chris Carson could also return from injury this week. Carson has scored three touchdowns during his four games this season, although he also totaled a mere six targets during that span. He's safest viewed as an RB2, if active. If he's out, Alex Collins will be the preferred flex play over Rashaad Penny, but neither are strong plays. AJ Dillon is averaging 11.8 touches per game since Week 4, but those have produced zero weekly finishes better than 18th -- and only two better than 40th. He's no more than a deep league flex.
Tyler Lockett has produced three top-10 fantasy weeks, but also four finishes outside of the top 60. Nevertheless, Wilson's return helps keep him in the WR2 mix.
Over/Under: 49.9 (5th highest)
Win Prob: Packers 61% (10th highest)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders
Lineup locks: Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Darren Waller
Derek Carr has just one weekly finish better than 10th (seventh in Week 2) and continues to show a very low fantasy ceiling. He has a pretty good matchup this week, which keeps him in the streaming discussion, although you should note that the Chiefs' pass defense has been better as of late (with their competition not being all that tough).
Following another solid showing in Week 9, Josh Jacobs now has double-digit fantasy points in all six games this season and has finished 21st or better five times. He's a consistent, high-floor RB2. Darrel Williams is averaging 13.4 fantasy points in his four games in place of Clyde Edwards-Helaire and makes for a fine RB2. Believe it or not, Kenyan Drake has posted three straight fantasy finishes of 11th or better. He has 33 touches for 252 yards and three touchdowns during this span and has worked his way into the flex discussion.
Hunter Renfrow has shown a low ceiling (zero top-10 fantasy weeks), but he does have double-digit fantasy points in seven of his eight games and makes for a high-floor WR3. Mecole Hardman has just one weekly finish better than 34th this season and is no more than a flex option in a tough matchup. Bryan Edwards was held without a catch last week and has never been targeted more than six times in any game of his career. DeSean Jackson's arrival pushes Edwards off the flex radar. Jackson also shouldn't be in lineups just yet.
Over/Under: 50.6 (4th highest)
Win Prob: Raiders 60% (12th highest)
Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers
Lineup locks: Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle
Trey Lance hasn't played on a single snap since Week 5, which has helped Jimmy Garoppolo secure a pair of top-10 fantasy weeks. However, Garoppolo otherwise has zero top-12 outings and, with the 49ers sitting at 3-5, we could see him replaced by Lance at any given time. Consider Garoppolo to be a QB2.
Darrell Henderson Jr. has finished outside of the top 30 fantasy backs twice over the last three weeks and has seen Sony Michel take on a larger share of carries during this span. Henderson still handled a healthy 15.7 touches per game in this stretch, so he remains a solid RB2. Elijah Mitchell has four top-20 fantasy outings in six games and saw a career-high five targets last week. He's a solid RB2.
Van Jefferson's boom/bust season has seen him deliver four top-35 fantasy finishes, but also five finishes outside of the top 50. He's unlikely to see enough targets to warrant anything close to flex value, especially with Beckham in the mix. Brandon Aiyuk exploded for a 6-89-1 receiving line on a season-high eight targets last week. The 2020 first-round pick has finally rejoined the WR3 discussion.
Tyler Higbee has been a top-15 scorer at tight end in every odd-numbered week so far, but has been outside of the top 20 in all four even-numbered weeks. That roller coaster suggests he's in for a down week, but his overall usage suggests he should still be a fine TE2. Whee!
Over/Under: 50.9 (3rd highest)
Win Prob: Rams 71% (7th highest)
Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins
Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Marquise Brown, Mark Andrews, Mike Gesicki
Jackson is set up with a terrific matchup against a Miami defense that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points, second-most yards and fifth-most touchdowns to quarterbacks this season. Tua Tagovailoa was out last week, but if he's able to play on Thursday, he'll be a deep-league streaming option. Tagovailoa last played during Weeks 6-8 and was fantasy's No. 5-scoring quarterback during that span, averaging 21.0 fantasy PPG. If Jacoby Brissett is starting instead, he has already shown that he is not a viable starter.
Myles Gaskin is averaging 15.7 carries and 5.0 targets over his last three outings and makes for a solid RB2 against a Baltimore defense allowing the second-most RB fantasy points over expected. Latavius Murray is expected to miss another game, which cements Devonta Freeman as a flex. Freeman racked up 13 carries and three targets on 52 snaps last week, compared to a combined 11 carries and zero targets on 37 snaps for Le'Veon Bell and Ty'Son Williams.
Rashod Bateman could lose a target or two to Sammy Watkins in his return from injury, but the rookie has posted back-to-back top-35 fantasy finishes and ranks 16th in the NFL in air yards during those weeks. He's on the flex radar. Fellow rookie Jaylen Waddle currently sits sixth at wide receiver in receptions (56). He's seen eight-plus targets in four straight games (10.2 per game), which has allowed three top-20 fantasy outings. He's a WR2 with DeVante Parker and William Fuller V still out.
Over/Under: 46.9 (7th highest)
Win Prob: Ravens 70% (8th highest)