For the fantasy football player, success in daily fantasy formats comes down to your ability to find value, to identify players who are faced with great matchups, and to maximize the relationships among the players in your roster (otherwise known as correlation). In other words, what are this week's best buys on the fantasy football schedule?
Each week, I'll go through each offensive position and give you a few players I'm considering for my head-to-head lineups, as well as some of the better team defenses for you to select in order to round out those fantasy rosters. These are usually players who are getting as much volume as possible, while also coming in at value prices. I'll also include some players I'm considering for my tournament pool play. And while things may change from when I write this until game time, I'll do whatever I can to keep people updated on my various social media channels all the way up until kickoff on Sunday.
With all of that in mind, here are my favorite plays for Week 4.
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen ($8,000 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel), Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans: Far too often, the public ends up fading passing attacks from teams that are massive favorites. The belief is that these teams are just going to run the ball and possibly pull their starters before the end of the game because they're going to end up being ahead by 40 points. The actual reality in these situations? If the favorite does hang 40-50 points on their opponent, those 6-7 TDs scored will likely come from multiple fantasy-viable pieces. Playing Allen in a single- or a double-stack in Week 4 allows you access to all of that scoring potential, as well as a possible discount on percentage as people fade the game due to their fear of a 16-point spread.
Jalen Hurts ($6,900 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel), Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Kansas City is allowing the fourth-most yards per completion this season. Hurts has been one of the best floor-ceiling combination quarterbacks in good games -- as well as in bad games, because of his enormous contributions on the ground. Traveling back to Philadelphia to face the Chiefs with a total of 55 expected points creates a great bounce-back spot for an Eagles offense which is hoping to be able to "flush" their horrible Monday night performance and pile up points against Kansas City.
Dak Prescott ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel), Dallas Cowboys vs. Carolina Panthers: The efficiency that the Cowboys offense has experienced this season is no surprise. With Prescott under center, Dallas could end up being an all-time great offense. Prescott has completed 77.5% of his passes and has at least three TD passes in four of the last five games that he has started and finished. Additionally, there have been 60-plus points scored in six of his last seven starts. It looks like the Panthers have greatly improved on defense, based on the first three weeks of the season, but they have not yet faced a quarterback of this caliber.
Also interested in
Baker Mayfield ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel), Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings: Since the beginning of last season, the Vikings are allowing points on a league-high 48.3% of drives. Mayfield has not yet posted a game of over 20 DraftKings points in 2021, but Week 4 provides him with a prime spot to finally do so.
Sam Darnold ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel), Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys: Is it because Darnold is seeing a resurgence because of the talent he is able to throw to in Carolina compared to when he was in New York? Is it because he's running Joe Brady's offense? Is it simply because as not playing for Adam Gase anymore? Who cares? Darnold has looked fantastic through these past three weeks. In a game with a projected total of over 50 points, Darnold is priced outside the top-10 quarterbacks.
Running backs
Alvin Kamara ($8,400 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel), New Orleans Saints vs. New York Giants: Kamara is being entrusted with more carries than we're used to seeing from him in past seasons. Typically, he would reside between 11-16 carries with the majority of his work coming in the passing game. While I'm encouraged by the amount of workload he's getting on the ground, I would prefer that the Saints go back to throwing him the ball six-plus times per game. The Giants are a great defense for us to attack as they have allowed opponents to complete 83.1% of their short passes this season. Both the betting markets and I expect the Saints to walk away with a win, and Kamara has scored in both of the Saints victories thus far in 2021.
Jonathan Taylor ($6,300 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel), Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins: People who have rostered or drafted Taylor through the first three weeks of the season are probably feeling like their pick could be a bust. I disagree and think that this is a great bounce-back spot for Taylor. He leads the league in terms of inside-the-five carries, which as we know are the highest leverage carries that a running back can get. While he hasn't scored a touchdown on any of them yet, as long as the volume holds -- and it should -- he will get those scored. "What about Nyheim Hines?" Well, I'm glad you asked. Taylor holds a 14-3 red zone touch edge over Hines, and with the team working on a Marlon Mack trade that would get him out of Indianapolis, Taylor's role looks solidified moving forward. Miami is allowing a league high 2.4 YPC after first contact to running backs this season, so he's got a great floor, with the possibility of a fantastic ceiling since the Dolphins have allowed the second-most RB fantasy points through three weeks.
David Montgomery ($5,800 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel), Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions: Montgomery is playing at home and projects to get 20-plus touches. He is involved in the Chicago passing game and gets the majority of the inside-the-five carries. His Bears are also favored in this one. Those are the five boxes that I like to check off at running back. Historically "five-check backs" have produced more points than the expected output. In his last three games against Detroit, Montgomery has averaged 90.7 yards and 47.8% of his carries gained five-plus yards. He remains one of the toughest running backs to tackle in the league.
Also interested in
Najee Harris ($6,800 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel), Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers: Green Bay has allowed a running back to score over 8.0 points as a pass-catcher in all three games this season. Harris has played on 190 of the Steelers' 197 offensive snaps, including massive usage in Week 3's passing game -- due in no small part to the multiple injuries sustained by Steelers receivers. While I don't expect 19 targets again, seeing 4-8 on a weekly basis seems extremely reasonable for Harris moving forward.
Trey Sermon ($5,000 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel), San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks: Seattle has allowed 413 RB rushing yards through three weeks, which is the second-highest total in the league and the highest on the main slate in Week 4. They've allowed the most DraftKings points to opposing running backs and rank below the league average in preventing RB yards both before and after contact. (Note: If Elijah Mitchell ends up being active, then Sermon is no longer someone of interest.)
Wide receivers
DJ Moore ($6,600 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel), Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys: This rocket ship is finally taking off, even though it may be a year behind schedule. Ranked fifth in the league in catches, seventh in targets, and eighth in receiving yards, Moore now squares up in an extremely friendly fantasy scoring environment against the Cowboys. Yet, he is priced as only the 12th-most expensive wide receiver on the DraftKings main slate. The Cowboys are allowing the sixth-most YPC after the reception, and have created pressure at the fourth-lowest rate. It's highly unlikely that Darnold will be "seeing any ghosts" on Sunday, so Moore's production, especially in the absence of Christian McCaffrey, should continue in Week 4.
CeeDee Lamb ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel), Dallas Cowboys vs. Carolina Panthers: The pricing of both Cowboys receivers (Lamb and Amari Cooper) is egregiously low. I would project them to be one of the highest played double-stacks on the weekend, with Prescott also sporting a low price here in Week 4. Some will point to Lamb's three targets on Monday night against Philadelphia, but the reality is that game got so out of hand that the Cowboys had no reason to pass and instead relied on Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard and the rest of their running game to salt away the victory. Week 4 presents a completely different situation for the Cowboys. Carolina should be able to do a better job keeping pace, forcing Prescott and the Cowboys to keep the foot on the gas pedal.
Robert Woods ($5,300 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel), Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals: Cooper Kupp has had an amazing start to the season -- one that some, myself included, would argue can't be sustained through a full 17 games. Kupp is priced at $7,800 this week on DraftKings while Woods is only $5,300. By comparison, Stefon Diggs is priced just below Kupp, while Cole Beasley is priced above Woods. You have to ask yourself if the difference between Kupp and Woods is really greater than the difference between Diggs and Beasley. I'm going say no and take the discount on Woods in Week 4.
Also interested in
Odell Beckham Jr. ($5,800 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel), Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings: Beckham ranked sixth among wide receivers in air yards last week (149) and logged five catches. All the other Browns receivers had just five targets combined.
Jalen Reagor ($4,700 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel), Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs: This season, only two defenses are allowing a touchdown on over 35% of drives -- the Packers (39.3%) and the Chiefs (43.3%).
Tight ends
Travis Kelce ($8,100 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel), Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles: I know it seems like I just write up Kelce every week, but seriously, just play Kelce!!! The ability to find a value play at running back or wide receiver who can score 15-plus fantasy points is way more likely than to get a tight end who can give you that kind of production for the same price. Kelce has averaged over 24 DraftKings points for the last two seasons. He has a realistic shot at the 100-yard bonus every week. He has a positive TD expectation every time he takes the field. I prefer to simply bank the 20-25 DraftKings points here and let my opponents figure out where they're going to get that kind of production elsewhere on their rosters, instead of trying to chase.
Logan Thomas ($4,900 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel), Washington at Atlanta Falcons: When Washington extended Thomas' contract during the pre-season, it signaled a greater role for him in their offense moving forward. So far in 2021, Thomas has scored in two out of three games and, when lined up in the slot, he's caught 7-of-8 targets for 70 yards and a touchdown. Atlanta allowed the highest slot completion percentage in 2020 and, through three weeks of 2021, not much has changed. Opponents are completing almost 82% of passes when targeting the slot against the Falcons. If you're not going to play Kelce, Thomas is a suitable replacement.
Also interested in
Noah Fant ($4,300 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel), Denver Broncos vs. Baltimore Ravens: Teddy Bridgewater has been rolling and Fant is how I'm getting exposure to his high-floor style of play. Fant has run a route on over 58% of Denver dropbacks every week this season. He also has had over 12 DraftKings points in both weeks prior to an outlier Week 3 -- a dominating team effort over the Jets. The Ravens aren't the Jets, but they are allowing the third-most YPC after the reception this season. That's enough for me to roll the dice.
Pat Freiermuth ($3,100 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel), Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers: "The Muth is Looth!" Freiermuth is a dart throw at a low price on both sides. While he hasn't run as many routes this season as Eric Ebron, his target percentage on routes run vastly eclipses Ebron's. Also, Freiermuth has an 11-6 advantage over Ebron in terms of red zone routes run and, in Week 3, he easily paid off his low price tag by finding the end zone. We also have a good matchup this week, with opponents having scored touchdowns on all 10 trips to the red zone against the Packers.
Defenses
Tennessee Titans ($3,900 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel), at Jets
Green Bay Packers ($3,300 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel), vs. Steelers
Atlanta Falcons ($2,300 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel), vs. Washington
Disclaimer: Al Zeidenfeld (Username: Al_Smizzle) plays on his personal account in games for which he offers advice. He may also deploy different players/strategies than what he advises.