Welcome to the Week 5 Fantasy Football Playbook!
This will be your game-by-game guide to the week's slate of NFL games, featuring score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for both season-long and DFS leagues. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for borderline starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in both raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player may be ranked slightly higher or lower due to other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to possible updates during the weekend, though at the very minimum, rankings will updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
New York Jets @ Atlanta Falcons
The 1-3 Jets and 1-3 Falcons will face off in London in what projects to be a low-scoring affair. Matt Ryan has managed one top-20 fantasy week this season and is not a recommended start, as he's down his top two wide receivers and going against a Jets team allowing the fifth-fewest QB fantasy points. Zach Wilson has yet to finish a week better than 19th in fantasy points and shouldn't be in lineups, even in this great matchup.
Fantasy's No. 3-scoring RB Cordarrelle Patterson continues to defy logic, but his usage (27 carries, 21 targets, 50 expected fantasy points) suggests he's unlikely to sustain RB1 production. Still, his usage/production should keep him in the back-end RB2 mix. Mike Davis continues to play on more snaps than Patterson and, while he hasn't been as productive, he's scored between 10 and 14 fantasy points in all four games. He's a high-floor flex.
Michael Carter has emerged as the primary back in New York's three-headed RB committee and, while he's yet to post a weekly finish better than 24th, he has posted finishes of 25th and 32nd during the past three weeks. His usage in a favorable matchup positions him as a flex option.
Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage are both out and we can't trust the likes of Olamide Zaccheaus and Tajae Sharpe against a Jets defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to perimeter receivers. The Jets' inconsistent offense makes their wide receivers risky, but Corey Davis has a pair of top-seven fantasy weeks this season (along with two finishes of 52nd or worse) and is seeing enough volume to remain a flex option. Jamison Crowder was targeted 10 times in his 2021 debut last week and is also a PPR flex play.
Kyle Pitts is ranked 19th at tight end in fantasy points, but he's still a fringe TE1 as better days are ahead. He's top-seven in targets and yards at the position and one of the unluckiest players in the league in the TD department (0 TDs, 1.9 OTD).
Over/Under: 41.8 (14th highest in Week 5)
Win Prob: Jets 55% (13th highest)
Green Bay Packers @ Cincinnati Bengals
This week's showdown between the 3-1 Packers and 3-1 Bengals projects as a very close and high-scoring game. Aaron Rodgers is off to a relatively slow start, but he has a pair of top-eight finishes over the last three weeks and remains a fine QB1 -- even against a Bengals defense which is playing fairly well. Joe Burrow ranks 29th in passing attempts and hasn't posted a weekly finish better than 11th, so he's not yet on the QB1 radar.
Aaron Jones' production has been all over the map so far, but he's eighth in touches and first in touchdowns among running backs, making him a lineup lock. Joe Mixon is expected to miss Week 5, which sets up Samaje Perine and Chris Evans as Cincinnati's primary backs. Expect Perine to handle most of the carries and goal-line work, with the rookie Evans helping out in passing situations. Perine is the preferred flex.
You're never benching Davante Adams, who leads the NFL with 31 receptions. Tee Higgins has missed the last two games, but he'll slide right back into the WR3 mix if he's back this week. Ja'Marr Chase sits second among wide receivers with four touchdowns, but he's a bit over his head in that department (1.0 OTD) and needs more targets (38th at WR with 25) in order to sustain WR1/2 output. Nonetheless, he remains a fringe WR2, especially with Jaire Alexander doubtful. Tyler Boyd's best two fantasy finishes have come with Higgins sidelined, so he's best viewed as a flex. Randall Cobb scored twice in Week 5, but was only targeted six times. He's a deep-league PPR flex.
Robert Tonyan was targeted a career-high seven times in Week 5, but he's fallen short of double-digit receiving yards in three of his four games. He's a risky start. C.J. Uzomah scored twice in Week 4, but posted a total receiving line of 4-39-0 on five targets during Weeks 1-3.
Over/Under: 52.6 (fourth highest)
Win Prob: Bengals 51% (16th highest)
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are playing better than their 1-3 record indicates and they're a heavy home favorite against the struggling 0-4 Lions this week. Kirk Cousins crashed back to earth in Week 4, but he has three top-12 fantasy weeks to his name this season and is a fine streaming option. Aside from some "garbage-time" success in Week 1, Jared Goff hasn't been a good fantasy option -- and that includes back-to-back finishes of 22nd or worse. He shouldn't be in lineups.
Dalvin Cook has struggled with injuries over the past two weeks, but you start him when he plays. D'Andre Swift is fantasy's RB7 for the season and sits second at the position in routes, targets, receptions and receiving yards. He's a lineup lock, whereas running mate Jamaal Williams should be on benches. After a 25-point effort in Week 1, Williams has totaled just 29 points during the last three games.
You're never benching Justin Jefferson or Adam Thielen, especially against Detroit's shaky cornerback room. Minnesota is the only team with two top-14 fantasy wide receivers this season. Kalif Raymond is the top option out of Detroit's dismal WR group, but he's not even a recommended flex after scoring twice on six targets in Week 4.
T.J. Hockenson has totaled 11 fantasy points over the last two weeks after posting 21-plus in both Weeks 1 and 2. However, he's seen eight-plus targets in three of four games and remains a lineup lock. Tyler Conklin has three duds to his name this season, but he's also seen 14 targets over the last two weeks, which keeps him in the TE1 discussion.
DFS Alert: Cook is coming off a rough stretch, having missed all of Week 3 and part of Week 4 because of injury. As a result, he's a bit underpriced at DraftKings ($8,400), which is $600 less than Derrick Henry and $200 less than Alvin Kamara. Cook's six-point effort last week was his first showing south of 10 points since Week 15 of the 2019 season. He workload remains strong, as he averaged 21.0 carries and 5.0 targets during Weeks 1-2. The best news is that he has a great matchup this week against a Lions defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points (and the most over the expected production), plus the most RB touchdowns (9). The last time Cook faced the Lions (Week 9 in 2020), he put up a career-high 252 scrimmage yards and scored twice.
Eliminator Alert: The Vikings are a double-digit favorite at home against the winless Lions and a strong option in survivor leagues this week. It feels risky to roll with a 1-3 team, but all three of Minnesota's losses were close games, including one-score games against very good Arizona and Cleveland teams, as well as a last-second loss to the 3-1 Bengals. Minnesota has won seven straight games against Detroit. Minnesota's win probability is the third-highest in the league this week and the highest remaining for the Vikings this season. Check out our Eliminator Cheatsheet for the full Week 5 rundown.
Over/Under: 49.7 (eighth highest)
Win Prob: Vikings 83% (third highest)
Denver Broncos @ Pittsburgh Steelers
The projected lowest-scoring game of the week features the 3-1 Broncos and 1-3 Steelers. Teddy Bridgewater has yet to post a top-10 fantasy week this season and is questionable for Sunday's game after having to leave Week 4's loss because of a concussion. Neither he nor potential replacement Drew Lock should be close to lineups. Ben Roethlisberger's best weekly finish this season has been QB24. He'll have his hands full against a tough Denver defense this week. Right now, he's not even a streaming option in a good matchup.
Najee Harris has ripped off three consecutive top-eight fantasy weeks and is playing on 92% of the Steelers' offensive snaps. He's a lineup lock. Melvin Gordon III and Javonte Williams continue to split snaps in Denver, with Gordon holding a slight edge. Gordon is the better flex play.
Diontae Johnson has been targeted at least 10 times in all three of his games and is a lineup lock. JuJu Smith-Schuster has three finishes of 64th or worse this season and is no longer a lineup lock. Chase Claypool missed Week 4, but was targeted 14 times when we last saw him in Week 3, so he'll be a flex option if he's back against Denver.
Courtland Sutton has hit double-digit fantasy points only once, but it was a 159-yard effort, plus he was targeted eight times in Week 4. He'll be hard to bench against Pittsburgh's struggling pass defense. Tim Patrick put up a dud last week, but did have a season-high six targets after putting up either 98 yards or a TD in each of his first three games. He's a flex option. Noah Fant handled a season-high 10 targets and found the end zone last week. He remains a solid TE1.
Over/Under: 34.5 (16th highest)
Win Prob: Broncos 63% (11th highest)
Miami Dolphins @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The 3-1 Buccaneers are big favorites at home against the struggling 1-3 Dolphins this week. Tom Brady struggled in New England last week, but was a top-seven fantasy quarterback during each of his first three games and remains a strong QB1 option here. Jacoby Brissett has posted one weekly finish better than 24th in place of Tua Tagovailoa. He can't be trusted in lineups, even in a game in which he'll be throwing plenty.
Leonard Fournette continues to lead the Tampa Bay backfield and, while he'll continue to share snaps with Ronald Jones II and Giovani Bernard, Fournette has hit double-digit fantasy points in three games. He's a back-end RB2 and in even better shape if Bernard misses his second consecutive game.
Myles Gaskin does not have a top-20 fantasy week under his belt this season and was demoted to two carries and zero targets on 12 snaps in Week 4. Malcolm Brown (eight carries and one target on 32 snaps) was the lead back in that game, but it's clear we can't trust anyone in this Miami backfield right now.
Mike Evans is WR8 in fantasy points over the last three weeks after struggling in Week 1. Chris Godwin has failed to clear five targets in two of his last three games, but he's reached 16 fantasy points in three out of four games. Evans and Godwin are lineup locks. Antonio Brown saw a season-high 11 targets in Week 4 and Tampa Bay's No. 3 WR remains a WR3/flex.
Tampa Bay has faced a league-high 118 WR targets this season, so Miami's wideouts figure to be busy this week. DeVante Parker posted his first top-40 fantasy outing against the Colts last week and is your best WR3/flex option of the bunch. Jaylen Waddle was targeted four times last week (after totaling 26 during his first three games) and will be a rebound candidate this week. He's a flex option, especially with William Fuller V on injured reserve.
After a slow start (including a doughnut in Week 1), Mike Gesicki has ripped off a pair of top-seven fantasy weeks and is right back in the TE1 mix. Rob Gronkowski (ribs) is likely to miss his second straight game, so Cameron Brate (six targets on 29 routes in Week 4) is a TE2 option.
Over/Under: 50.5 (sixth highest)
Win Prob: Buccaneers 82% (fourth highest)
New Orleans Saints @ Washington
In a game that could eventually have wild-card implications in the NFC, the 2-2 Saints are headed to 2-2 Washington this week. Taylor Heinicke has ripped off three consecutive top-12 fantasy weeks in place of Ryan Fitzpatrick, but he's a tough sell against a Saints defense allowing the sixth-fewest QB fantasy points. Washington, on the other hand, is getting lit up by opposing quarterbacks. Still, Jameis Winston sits 30th in passing attempts and hasn't posted a top-22 fantasy week since Week 1.
Alvin Kamara made some personal history last week, clearing 24 carries in a game for the first time, but also going without a single target for the first time. Nevertheless, Kamara has hit 20 carries in five of his last seven games and remains a lineup lock. Antonio Gibson gets a downgrade against a good Saints' run defense this week, but fantasy's No. 17-scoring running back remains a fine RB2. J.D. McKissic has reached 17 fantasy points twice, but has seven total points in the other two games. He's a risky flex.
Terry McLaurin is set to face Marshon Lattimore's shadow coverage this week, but fantasy's No. 6 wide receiver has a pair of top-five fantasy weeks under his belt already this season and is a lineup lock. Curtis Samuel made his Washington debut last week, but he'll need more than four targets before we can put him in the WR3/flex slot.
Marquez Callaway has completely busted as the Saints' No. 1 WR (one top-50 week); no New Orleans wideouts belong in lineups. Juwan Johnson has three touchdowns this season, but hasn't cleared three targets or 23 yards in any game.
Ricky Seals-Jones is a deep sleeper as a replacement for the injured Logan Thomas. Neither tight end should be in lineups.
DFS Alert: Samuel is the bare minimum $3,000 at DraftKings this week. That's a lower price than a whopping 90 wide receivers and, while he may not be a good season-long option, it makes him a very tough player to pass on in cash lineups. Samuel only played on 22 snaps in his Washington debut last week, but he was targeted four times and his role will only increase moving forward. Remember that this is a player who ranked second among all wide receivers in touches (117) and was a top-25 fantasy WR in 2020. The Saints have allowed the ninth-most WR fantasy points and Samuel could see extra looks with Thomas out and McLaurin set to face off with Lattimore.
Over/Under: 47.8 (10th highest)
Win Prob: Saints 70% (eighth highest)
Philadelphia Eagles @ Carolina Panthers
The 1-3 Eagles have dropped three games in a row and have a challenge on their hands this week on the road against the 3-1 Panthers. Jalen Hurts has finished as a top-11 fantasy QB all four weeks this season and should be in lineups. Sam Darnold hasn't finished a week worse than 16th and that includes back-to-back top-five performances. Of course, he has more rushing scores (five, leading all QBs) than scrambles (4), so we could expect some regression in that department. Still, Darnold sits sixth in the league in passing yards and is playing well, so he's trending toward QB1 consideration.
Christian McCaffrey is expected back this week and is the clear top fantasy option if that's the case. While McCaffrey was sidelined last week, Chuba Hubbard filled in with 13 carries and a pair of targets on 32 (of a possible 68) snaps. He only ran 10 routes in the game, whereas Rodney Smith was targeted on five of his 16 routes. Losing that passing-game work will limit Hubbard's upside, but his role would be enough for RB2 value if McCaffrey sits.
Miles Sanders has played on no less than 62% of the snaps in four games this season, but he's been limited to 15 touches during the Eagles' past two games. That's not going to cut it -- but he's played well, so it's likely that his touches rise. He's a back-end RB2, whereas Kenneth Gainwell isn't seeing enough work to start confidently in the flex just yet.
DJ Moore sits fourth in WR fantasy points and is a lineup lock. Robby Anderson racked up a season-high 11 targets in Week 4, but turned them into only 46 yards. He's a flex, at best. DeVonta Smith has produced a pair of top-20 fantasy weeks and his 22% target share keeps him in the WR3 mix. Jalen Reagor has fallen short of 4.5 fantasy points twice this season and is best left on benches.
Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert have both been top-10 fantasy tight ends over the past two weeks, with Ertz holding a 15-9 edge in targets during this span. Despite their recent success, both are tough to justify as TE1 plays as they're splitting roughly 25% of the team's total targets.
Over/Under: 45.4 (12th highest)
Win Prob: Panthers 80% (fifth highest)
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
The 2-2 Titans are headed to Jacksonville to face off with the 0-4 Jaguars in this AFC South showdown. Ryan Tannehill's play has dropped off this season and he's managed only one top-16 fantasy showing (eighth in Week 3). This is a good matchup, but his recent play, Tennessee's run-heavy scheme and injuries to A.J. Brown and Julio Jones make the veteran quarterback a shaky streaming option. Trevor Lawrence is starting to add value with his legs (17-82-1 rushing line), but has yet to produce a top-14 fantasy week. He belongs on benches.
Three consecutive top-12 fantasy weeks has Derrick Henry sitting 18 fantasy points ahead of the next closest running back. Lock him into lineups. James Robinson suddenly has a pair of top-eight fantasy weeks and has rejoined the weekly RB1 discussion, though keep in mind that Carlos Hyde could be back to steal a few carries this week. Jeremy McNichols sits third in RB targets, but it's resulted in only one top-33 fantasy week. He's not a flex option.
Brown is expected back from a hamstring injury this week and remains a lineup lock, despite his slow start to the season. Even with Julio Jones still out, Chester Rogers and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine are too risky to use in the flex. Marvin Jones Jr. posted his first dud with Jacksonville in Week 4, but he was targeted at least nine times in Weeks 1-3 and should be locked in as a WR3. Laviska Shenault Jr.'s 94 air yards in Week 4 were more than his total (88) during Weeks 1-3. He put up 110 scrimmage yards on seven touches and has a path to consistent flex value (if not more) with DJ Chark Jr. on IR.
Anthony Firkser has turned nine targets into only 42 yards in his two games this season and isn't a starting option. Dan Arnold's role only figures to increase as he gets acclimated with the Jaguars, but he's not yet close to TE1 status.
Over/Under: 50.5 (seventh highest)
Win Prob: Titans 56% (12th highest)
New England Patriots @ Houston Texans
A pair of 1-3 teams will face off on Sunday in what projects to be a very low-scoring game between the Patriots and Texans. Neither rookie quarterback has managed a single top-20 fantasy week this season, so Mac Jones and Davis Mills should obviously be nowhere close to lineups.
The RB situation isn't much prettier, as both teams rely on a committee. Damien Harris ran a career-high 17 routes last week (and perhaps could see more targets with James White out), but he's now failed to clear 5.0 fantasy points in back-to-back games. He is a shaky flex option. Brandon Bolden (6 targets,17 snaps last week) is the de facto White replacement, but his usage won't translate to consistent flex value. David Johnson is the top-scoring fantasy running back for Houston this season and he's only 47th in points. Not one of Johnson, Mark Ingram II or Phillip Lindsay belong close to lineups.
Brandin Cooks has another tough matchup this week after he was held in check by Buffalo in Week 4, but his 37% target share makes him a lineup lock. Jakobi Meyers is up to 112 career receptions without a single TD catch, but he's fifth among wideouts in targets and is thus a viable WR3.
Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith both scored touchdowns in Week 4, yet the two have still failed to produce a single top-10 fantasy week this season. Neither belong in lineups.
Over/Under: 35.7 (15th highest)
Win Prob: Patriots 69% (ninth highest)
Chicago Bears @ Las Vegas Raiders
The 3-1 Raiders are coming off their first loss of the season and will look to get back on track at home against the 2-2 Bears. This projects to be a low-scoring game, so neither quarterback is overly enticing. Derek Carr barely slipped inside the top-10 in fantasy points during Weeks 1-3, but returned to earth in Week 4 and remains a low-ceiling QB2. Justin Fields has yet to clear 8.0 fantasy points in any game and has actually finished as the QB33 in each of the past three weeks. He also hasn't done much with his legs since replacing Andy Dalton (6-21-0 rushing line during Weeks 3-4). Although he did play better last week against Detroit, the rookie belongs on benches until the fantasy production shows up.
Josh Jacobs returned from injury and handled 81% of the Raiders' carries, also matching a career-high with five targets in Week 4. He remains a viable RB2. Kenyan Drake touched the ball once last week, but he'll continue to play on one-third of the snaps and has some deep-league PPR appeal. David Montgomery will be out for a month or so, which bumps Damien Williams up to RB2 territory. Rookie Khalil Herbert figures to play, as well, but he should be on benches for now.
Allen Robinson II is 60th in WR fantasy points, having yet to post a top-48 week. He also hasn't cleared six targets in any game since Week 1. Better days are likely ahead for the superstar receiver, but he's best viewed as a WR3 for now. Darnell Mooney went off for 125 yards in Week 4 and his 27% target share helps solidify him as a flex option.
Hunter Renfrow has already matched his TD total from last season and Henry Ruggs III has produced 60-plus yards in three consecutive games. Both are flex options. Lineup lock Darren Waller ranks first among tight ends and ninth among all players in targets.
Over/Under: 41.9 (13th highest)
Win Prob: Raiders 74% (sixth highest)
Cleveland Browns @ Los Angeles Chargers
One of the most anticipated games of Week 5 features the 3-1 Chargers playing host to the 3-1 Browns. Both defenses have played well in recent weeks, so this projects as a below-average scoring game.
Justin Herbert is playing good football, but he isn't running as much as he did in 2020 -- and he only has one weekly fantasy finish better than 12th. He's still safe to start, but he's not the lineup lock we thought he'd be (at least not right now). Baker Mayfield has failed to post a single top-16 fantasy week this season in Cleveland's run-heavy scheme. Leave him on benches.
Cleveland has done well to slow opposing wide receivers, but even after a down week, Mike Williams (fifth in fantasy points at WR) and Keenan Allen (17th) are too good to bench. Odell Beckham Jr. has been targeted 16 times in two games this season and a near miss on a long touchdown last week would have given him two strong fantasy showings. His heavy usage locks him into the WR3 mix.
Jared Cook is fresh off his best fantasy showing of the season and is an underrated borderline TE1. Austin Hooper hasn't posted a fantasy finish better than 14th and will continue to share targets with David Njoku and Harrison Bryant. He shouldn't be in lineups.
DFS Alert: Cook is this week's "Monday Night Football discount" recipient, as he checks in at just $3,600 at DraftKings. That's less than half the cost of the top-priced Waller. Cook is coming off a 19-point effort in Week 4 and is up to 12th in TE fantasy points (ninth in OFP). Cook ranks fifth in routes run at the position and is no lower than 11th in targets, receptions, yardage, and end-zone targets. The Browns haven't faced many notable tight ends in their recent matchups (HOU, CHI, MIN), but did allow a combined 7-79-2 receiving line to Travis Kelce and the rest of the Chiefs' tight ends in Week 1.
Over/Under: 46.2 (11th highest)
Win Prob: Chargers 53% (15th highest)
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys
The 3-1 Cowboys project as heavy home favorites in what should be a high-scoring game against the 1-3 Giants this week. Dak Prescott is "only" fantasy's QB13 this season, but he's posted a pair of sixth-place finishes and finally made some plays with his legs last week (35 yards). He's a must-start, whereas Daniel Jones is a closer call. Jones sits sixth in fantasy points and also has a pair of top-seven fantasy weeks under his belt. He's been an asset with his legs (27-188-2 rushing line), but has only thrown four touchdowns. He's a fringe QB1, with upside.
Ezekiel Elliott (sixth in RB fantasy points on the season) and Saquon Barkley (10th) are two of league's best veteran running backs and both have delivered RB1 production so far this season. Elliott has produced three consecutive top-11 weeks, whereas Barkley has played on over 80% of the snaps in three straight games and has posted back-to-back top-eight performances. Both are lineup locks. Tony Pollard has finished 39th or worse in fantasy points in three of his four games and belongs on benches.
CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper have both delivered two top-25 weeks and two finishes of 50th or worse this season. That boom/bust production is concerning, but their target shares are good and the Dallas offense is red-hot. Start them both. Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton both missed Week 4 and are expected to sit out again this week. Kenny Golladay posted his first top-20 fantasy week as a member of the Giants in Week 4 and is on the WR3 radar, but Trevon Diggs' shadow coverage makes him riskier than usual. Kadarius Toney led the Giants with nine targets last week and is on the flex radar as the team's No. 2 receiver.
Dalton Schultz leads all tight ends in fantasy points over the past two weeks and should be in lineups. Evan Engram has only produced a total of 48 yards this season, but he's been targeted six times in both of his games, so he's in the TE2 discussion.
DFS Alert: Jones ($6,000) is priced as the QB12 at DraftKings this week, which is a bit low for the No. 6-scoring fantasy quarterback. Jones has produced 17-plus fantasy points in all four games and 21-plus points in three of the four. He's seventh in passing yards and no lower than fourth at his position in carries, rushing yards and rushing scores. Dallas, meanwhile, has allowed the fourth-most QB fantasy points, as well as 300-plus passing yards in all four games.
Over/Under: 52.2 (fifth highest)
Win Prob: Cowboys 88% (second highest)
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals are the last remaining 4-0 team and are a comfortable home favorite in what projects to be a high-scoring game against rookie Trey Lance and the 2-2 49ers this week. Kyler Murray has outscored all quarterbacks not named Patrick Mahomes this season and is a lineup lock. Lance tossed two touchdowns and ran for 41 yards in place of an injured Jimmy Garoppolo last week. His legs make him a sleeper for QB1 production, but his inexperience makes him too risky to count on.
Chase Edmonds is the poster boy for high-floor/low-ceiling production this season, as he's finished all four weeks between 13th and 24th in RB fantasy points. He's a lineup lock right now. James Conner has reeled off back-to-back top-15 fantasy weeks because he's scored twice in both games, but he'll be a TD-dependent, boom/bust flex as long as Edmonds is in the picture. Elijah Mitchell is back from injury this week and figures to return to lead-back duties for the 49ers. There's risk that Trey Sermon will be heavily involved, though, so consider Mitchell only as a flex.
Deebo Samuel is averaging 10.5 targets per game and sits third in WR fantasy points. He's a lineup lock. So is DeAndre Hopkins, despite the fact that he's fallen short of eight targets in all four games this season. A.J. Green has either scored or reached 112 yards in three straight games, but he's yet to clear six targets in any game and has a lot of competition for targets. Green and teammates Christian Kirk and Rondale Moore are all risky, deep-league flex options.
George Kittle has a pair of top-nine fantasy weeks to his name and remains a fine TE1. Maxx Williams has managed to produce a pair of top-six fantasy weeks, but his disappearing act in both Weeks 1 and 3 suggest we should be cautious.
Over/Under: 53.2 (third highest)
Win Prob: Cardinals 88% (Highest)
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs
The highest-projected scoring game of the week features the 3-1 Bills traveling to Kansas City to take on the 2-2 Chiefs. After a slow start, Josh Allen paced all quarterbacks in fantasy points in Week 3 and is back to playing at his usual high level. He's an elite play this week against a Chiefs defense that has allowed 28-plus QB fantasy points in three consecutive games. Patrick Mahomes gets downgraded this week against a Bills defense allowing the fewest QB fantasy points this season, but fantasy's top-scoring quarterback is still a lineup lock.
Buffalo has also allowed the fourth-fewest RB fantasy points, so Clyde Edwards-Helaire is a candidate for a step back after back-to-back solid outings. Zack Moss has taken a slight edge over Devin Singletary in the Buffalo backfield and has turned the usage into three top-24 fantasy weeks in a row. He's been TD-dependent (four in three games) though, so he remains a flex pick, whereas Singletary is ideally left on benches.
The Bills may have also allowed the fewest WR fantasy points, but you're never benching Tyreek Hill -- and the same goes for Stefon Diggs. Diggs has yet to produce a top-15 fantasy week, but he's trending up (16th in Week 4) and his 10.5 targets per game is actually a tiny increase from 10.47 last season. Emmanuel Sanders is up to 25th in WR fantasy points and joins Cole Beasley as viable flex options. Josh Gordon could make his Kansas City debut this week, but shouldn't be in lineups just yet.
Travis Kelce was limited to just 6.3 fantasy points in Week 4, but is still the top-scoring fantasy tight end by 10 points. Dawson Knox has failed to clear five targets in three of his four games, but that's been offset by four touchdowns. Fantasy's No. 6-scoring tight end should be in lineups.
Over/Under: 60.4 (Highest)
Win Prob: Bills 67% (10th highest)
Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens
The 3-1 Ravens are a home favorite against the 1-3 Colts on this week's edition of Monday Night Football. Lamar Jackson exploded for 32 fantasy points in Week 2, but he's produced no other top-13 fantasy weeks. That's not ideal, but the Colts have allowed the third-most fantasy points over what was expected, so Jackson is in a good spot as a solid QB1 play this week. Carson Wentz is still without a top-15 fantasy showing this season and that's doubtful to change against Baltimore.
Jonathan Taylor finally found the end zone in Week 4 and sits eighth in carries and first in OTD among running backs. Of course, Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines remain factors and Taylor hasn't done much as a pass-catcher, so he's best viewed as a solid RB2 in a good matchup this week. Latavius Murray took control as the Ravens' lead back last week, carrying the ball on 18 of his 44 snaps, but he still hasn't been targeted this season and Le'Veon Bell's role only figures to increase (19 snaps last week). Murray is a flex option with more value in non-PPR leagues.
Michael Pittman Jr. has yet to find the end zone this season, but he's 14th at wide receiver in targets and makes for a fine WR3. Marquise Brown has both scored a touchdown and failed to clear seven targets in three of his four games this season. He's a WR3 and in jeopardy of a lesser role if Rashod Bateman (due back from IR shortly) makes an immediate impact. Sammy Watkins has exactly four catches in all four games and yet to score a touchdown, whereas Zach Pascal has yet to clear 44 yards in any game and hasn't scored since Week 2. Both are weak flex plays.
Mark Andrews has reeled off three consecutive top-13 fantasy weeks and is a solid TE1. Jack Doyle is no longer close to the fantasy radar after playing behind both Mo Alie-Cox and Kylen Granson last week.
Over/Under: 48.3 (ninth highest)
Win Prob: Ravens 72% (seventh highest)
Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks
Week 5 kicks off with one of the highest-projected games of the week, as the 3-1 Rams head north to take on the 2-2 Seahawks.
Both quarterbacks should rarely be on benches -- and that includes this week. Matthew Stafford sits fourth in passing yards and second in touchdowns, whereas Seattle has allowed at least 322 passing yards in each of the last three weeks and exactly three passing scores in two straight games.
Russell Wilson is only ranked 28th in passing attempts, but he's thrown nine touchdowns (fifth-most) and will face a Rams defense that has allowed the seventh-most passing yards, but the sixth-fewest passing scores (4).
Both lead backs should also be locked into lineups. Darrell Henderson Jr. has played on 83% of the snaps and handled 14.3 carries and 4.0 targets per game during his three appearances this season. He's been a top-16 RB scorer in all three and faces a Seattle defense allowing 201 scrimmage yards per game to opposing backs.
Chris Carson's snaps (under 50% the past two weeks) and targets (just three during his past three games) are trending the wrong way, but he gets enough work to remain in the RB2 mix, especially after the Rams allowed 205 yards and a pair of RB touchdowns to Arizona last week. Carson is questionable, so if he's out, Alex Collins would be a flex option.
Seattle WRs DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are both lineup locks. Metcalf is enjoying a career-high target share (32%) and has scored in three of four games. Jalen Ramsey shadow coverage is possible, but not a lock (more on this in this week's Shadow Report). Lockett has seen no more than five targets in three of his four games, but his huge ceiling (58 points during Weeks 1-2) can't be ignored.
Cooper Kupp is the top-scoring wide receiver in fantasy and won't disappear anytime soon as long as he keeps seeing 10-plus targets per game. Kupp leads all wide receivers in targets and touchdowns, and sits top-three in receptions, yards, and end zone targets. Robert Woods sits no better than 38th at the position in targets, receptions, yards, and fantasy points, but is getting work near the goal line (seventh in OTD) and remains in the WR3 mix.
Tyler Higbee has been boom/bust (two top-10 weeks, two outside the top 20), but his 88% snap rate and 5-6 targets per game make him a fringe TE1. Gerald Everett could be a TE2 if activated from the COVID-19 list. He has yet to deliver a top-12 fantasy showing this season.
Over/Under: 56 (second highest)
Win Prob: Rams 55% (14th highest)