Matchups play a huge part in fantasy managers' weekly lineup decisions. When choosing between two (or more) similarly talented players, the decision often boils down to: Which one has the best matchup?
Ah, but there's that word again, one all too familiar in the fantasy football lexicon. What, exactly, constitutes a favorable or unfavorable matchup?
This is where the "Matchups Map" comes in. Each week, I'll provide a schedule-independent method to determine strength of positional matchups, using the most recent, relevant data. Check back for updated numbers each week, including matchup highlights at each position, both favorable and unfavorable, based upon those statistics. For these purposes, we will use PPR (Point Per Reception) scoring.
For Week 2, the maps include two measures: The first, "Rk," is my personal ranking of how favorable/unfavorable I consider that positional matchup; the second, "Adj. FPA," reflects how far above or below a player's average that defense held opponents at that position. For Weeks 1-3, 2020 full-season data is used for the latter, so take those with a grain -- or several grains -- of salt. Beginning in Week 4, we'll use 2021 data (three weeks in the books at that point), and then starting in Week 6, we'll use the most recent five weeks.
Finally, a caveat: Remember that matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, and not every unfavorable matchup should be avoided. To get the most complete recipe for whom to start and sit, consult my weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Favorable matchup: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (at Chicago Bears). The Bears' pass defense delivered one of the most disappointing performances of Week 1, sacking Matthew Stafford just once while affording him the week's most passing yards per attempt (12.35) and 24.34 fantasy points on only 26 passing attempts. Their problems at cornerback were evident, as the departure of Kyle Fuller afforded Stafford the opportunity to avoid Jaylon Johnson whenever he could, capitalizing upon stronger matchups against Marqui Christian and safety Eddie Jackson. Perhaps the team will work Artie Burns or Duke Shelley more into the mix to address those issues, but it's clear this is a secondary to exploit from the quarterback position in fantasy. Burrow had a solid return game from knee surgery, totaling 18.64 fantasy points almost entirely on his 27 pass attempts, and the fact that he has three good wide receivers -- Tyler Boyd, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins -- at his disposal only helps in a matchup scenario such as this. The sophomore is legitimately a top-10 option for Week 2.
Unfavorable matchup: Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (versus San Francisco 49ers). From strong start to suggested sit, Hurts' first two matchups could be much different in terms of quality. The Atlanta Falcons, his Week 1 foe, surrendered 22.56 fantasy points on his pass attempts alone, that illustrating the many issues in their secondary, but until the fourth quarter of their opening-week game, the 49ers kept Jared Goff largely in check. As is, Goff required 28 fourth-quarter pass attempts to vault his fantasy point total from 12.50 to 28.92, and it's likely the 49ers should find it an easier go containing Hurts, who generates a good share of his production with his legs. As is, these 49ers limited opposing quarterbacks to the seventh-fewest fantasy points per scramble in 2020 (0.61), and they did that on what was by far the league's largest number of attempts (93). Hurts' mobility will always prop his value up in or near the positional top 10, but this is one of his weaker matchups of 2021.
QB Matchups Map
Running backs
Favorable matchup: Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers (versus Las Vegas Raiders). He's hardly a player you'd ever bench, but Harris warrants the mention here because of how appealing his Week 2 matchup is. These Raiders, who afforded the fourth-most PPR fantasy points to running backs in 2020 (28.98 per game), surrendered a sixth-most 31.2 points to the position in Week 1, with the vast majority of those coming on rushing plays. This defense surrendered rushing scores to both Ty'Son Williams and Latavius Murray, fill-ins for the recently injured J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, and it allowed the fourth-highest rushing yards per carry in the league overall (5.56). Harris, meanwhile, accomplished the unusual feat of playing every offensive snap for the Steelers, in part because he performed plenty adequately as a pass blocker, even if his offensive numbers on the whole were unimpressive. This is a considerably stronger matchup for him than the one during his NFL debut, however, and that the Steelers seemed more reliant on him as a rusher than receiver bodes quite well considering the matchup itself.
Unfavorable matchup: Mike Davis, Atlanta Falcons (at Tampa Bay Buccaneers). Ezekiel Elliott, the Buccaneers' Week 1 opponent, was one of 25 running backs to play at least half their teams' offensive snaps while amassing at least 10 rushing attempts, and his 5.90 PPR fantasy points against them were tied for second worst among that group (Javonte Williams, 5.10; Harris, 5.90). In fact, Elliott's performance in that NFL Kickoff Game was probably the most disappointing, but that's no surprise if you know anything about the Buccaneers' rush defense, which had minus-6.40 Adjusted Fantasy Points Added in 2020, the league's lowest number. Davis, who had a forgettable 10.2 PPR fantasy points on 18 touches in Week 1, had a similar stinker against this defense as a lead running back in 2020, totaling 8.40 points on 11 touches in Week 10. You can surely do better from your flex spot.
RB Matchups Map
Wide receivers
Favorable matchup: Jakobi Meyers, New England Patriots (at New York Jets). Similarly to the aforementioned Bears, the Jets' cornerback picture was awfully cloudy entering the season, and while the unit performed better than expected in the season opener, it nevertheless afforded the Carolina Panthers' top three wide receivers a combined 33.70 PPR fantasy points on 17 targets. Slot receiver Terrace Marshall Jr. was the least impressive of the trio, going up most often against Michael Carter II, but it also needs to be pointed out that Marshall ran fewer routes than the team's perimeter receivers. Meyers, the Patriots' primary slot receiver, in Week 1 played the most offensive snaps among New England's wide receivers (99%), tied for the most routes run (38), had the most targets (10) and saw one of those targets in the red zone. He'll be much more heavily utilized against this still-unproven secondary, and should be due for a much better game than his last one against a much-tougher Miami Dolphins unit.
Unfavorable matchup: Laviska Shenault Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars (versus Denver Broncos). You could slide in any of the Jaguars' top three wide receivers here and be just as comfortable with the choice, as the Broncos' cornerbacks had just about as good a Week 1 as any defense's did. Shenault gets my nod as the most rostered of the three in ESPN leagues, as well as the one who has gotten the most run out of the slot. That's Bryce Callahan's spot to defend, and he was one of the opening week's strongest-performing cornerbacks, limiting opposing receivers to just 21 yards on four targets on 23 coverage snaps. Ronald Darby had good Week 1 grades as well, so it's not like things will be all that much easier for perimeter receivers Marvin Jones Jr. and DJ Chark Jr. I'd expect Trevor Lawrence to spread things around in this game, just as he did in his NFL debut, so there's simply very little upside with this group.
WR Matchups Map
Tight ends
Favorable matchup: Noah Fant, Denver Broncos (at Jacksonville Jaguars). This Jaguars defense was the league's worst against opposing tight ends in 2021, at least on a per-target basis, affording the position 2.31 PPR fantasy points in that particular department. In Week 1, just as was the case many times last year, their opponent lacked star personnel and/or didn't need to rely that heavily upon the tight end in order to succeed. But this week, the Broncos have a much more talented tight end than the Houston Texans do and might in fact need Fant for a larger share of the receiving chores following the injury to Jerry Jeudy. Linebacker Myles Jack was one of this defense's lone bright spots facing tight ends last season, and while that was still a common assignment for him in Week 1, the team lacks depth in that area behind him.
Unfavorable matchup: Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles (versus San Francisco 49ers). The 49ers were one of the league's best defenses against opposing tight ends last season, with a third-best minus-2.85 Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed and fourth-best 1.49 PPR fantasy points per target. That was in large part due to the performances of linebacker Fred Warner and free safety Jimmie Ward, each of whom had similarly strong games in Week 1. Yes, T.J. Hockenson totaled 25.7 PPR fantasy points on 10 targets in the season opener, but the Detroit Lions are considerably more reliant upon him than the Eagles are Goedert, and there's every reason to believe Goedert won't be able to repeat that success this week.
TE Matchups Map