Offensive linemen may not run the rock themselves, but they can still influence fantasy football.
Each week in this spot we break down matchups in the trenches, and how that information affects your lineup decisions. The basis of the discussion are our win rates -- run block win rate and run stop win rate, as well as pass block win rate and pass rush win rate -- which quantify line performance based on player tracking data using NFL Next Gen Stats.
To start the year we leaned on projected versions of our win rates based on the players expected to play along the line of scrimmage for every offense and defense. With 2021 games now in the books, those preseason projections become our priors -- which we then update with actual win rate data for every team.
Below we break down the Week 2 games, identifying the most advantageous and least advantageous matchups based on the projected difference in the offense's win rate and the defense's win rate, for both run and pass. Because of that, this is as much about quantifying each team's blocking ability as it is about the defense they're up against this week.
Let's dive in!
Advantageous Run Blocking Matchups
Chase Edmonds and James Conner, Arizona Cardinals (vs. Vikings)
Cardinals projected run block win rate rank: 13th
Vikings projected run stop win rate rank: 32nd
We had the Vikings as a below-average run stopping unit before the season, but they dropped all the way to 32nd after a finishing 31st in RSWR in their Week 1 loss to the Bengals -- with low individual numbers by Dalvin Tomlinson and D.J. Wonnum dragging down Minnesota's score. It wasn't the worst performance in terms of yards per carry allowed, but Joe Mixon ran for 129 yards and a touchdown against Minnesota in that matchup.
Enter Edmonds and Conner, who split time in Week 1 (Conner had more carries, Edmonds played more snaps). They play behind a Cardinals offensive line that's better against the pass than the run, but they project around average in the latter. So facing Vikings is quite the opportunity for both of them considering not only the Vikings weak run stopping unit they face, but in a game Arizona is favored in, too.
Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys (at Chargers)
Cowboys projected run block win rate rank: 3rd
Chargers projected run stop win rate rank: 22nd
I'd be willing to bet this is Elliott's bounce-back week. In the season opener Dallas faced the Buccaneers strong run blocking unit and between that and keeping up with Tampa Bay's offense, it made sense for the Cowboys to roll out an aggressively pass-heavy offense. It's a different story against the Chargers. For starters, Brandon Staley's reputation as a defensive coach is someone that sells out to stop the pass, so that ought to encourage Dallas to run the ball more.
Add in the fact that the Chargers are a better pass rushing team than run stopping team -- they ranked 28th in run stop win rate in Week 1 against Washington -- and this looks like a matchup where Dallas' offensive line can open up holes for Zeke. I will note that the model is flying blind on La'el Collins' suspension, but Collins actually posted a slightly below average RBWR in 2019, when he played last. On the other hand, Dallas is getting Zack Martin back.
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals (at Bears)
Bengals projected run block win rate rank: 5th
Bears projected run stop win rate rank: 31st
Now this was an expectation-buster: the Bengals' run blocking. Cincinnati flew up the run blocking board after a strong Week 1 against the aforementioned Vikings. There was no single Cincinnati offensive lineman who was exceptional in RBWR, but across the board -- tackles Jonah Williams and Riley Reiff, guards Xavier Su'a Filo and Quinton Spain, and center Trey Hopkins -- all five were above in Week 1. That's a pretty solid recipe for success.
Now was that Week 1 performance more about the Bengals or the Vikings? It's too early to tell, but it's at least a nice sign. That the Bears finished 27th in RSWR in Week 1 was not a needle-mover -- we had them predicted as the 30th-best team in the category.
Disadvantageous Matchups
Damien Harris, New England Patriots (at Jets)
Patriots projected run block win rate rank: 29th
Jets projected run stop win rate rank: 1st
The Jets' opponent each week is a pretty safe bet to end up on this list. They weren't particularly remarkable in Week 1 -- 10th in run stop win rate -- but the prior on Gang Green as a run stopping machine is strong, and it will take some worse performances than that to move them out of the No. 1 ranking quickly.
I'll admit I was surprised to see the Patriots so low in the rankings this week -- a little fall from their preseason number -- after Harris' 100-yard game a week ago. But tackles Isaiah Wynn and Justin Herron - who replaced Trent Brown -- graded out very poorly in the run game and that really brought down our New England run blocking number. Brown is day-to-day with a calf strain.
Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Raiders)
Steelers projected run block win rate rank: 31st
Raiders projected run stop win rate rank: 2nd
Oof, this was the concern with Harris in the preseason right -- that the offensive line was going to be a problem? That's certainly what we projected before the games started and it showed up as an issue in Week 1. Even in victory... against a team we projected to have one of the worst run stopping units in the league. Yeah, that's not great.
And now the Steelers square off against the surprise defensive performance of Week 1: Las Vegas. Now, Baltimore was able to run and run efficiently against the Raiders, but the underlying win rates for Vegas were very strong overall - win rates and yards per carry are correlated, but not always in the small sample of a single game. Carl Nassib (who also led the league in pass rush win rate as an edge in Week 1!) and Maxx Crosby were the driving forces behind Vegas' strong Week 1 win rate performance.
Advantageous Pass Blocking Matchups
Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns (vs. Texans)
Browns projected pass block win rate rank: 1st
Texans projected pass rush win rate rank: 23rd
Cleveland's offensive line lived up to the hype in Week 1: they ranked first in pass block win rate (and second in run block win rate) and allowed Baker Mayfield to take an average time of 3.09 seconds before pass - the highest in the league in Week 1. It's become clear that Mayfield will have all the time he needs to do work in 2021. Jack Conklin, Joel Bitonio and J.C. Tretter all led the way with strong performances. One factor to keep an eye on: Jedrick Wills Jr. -- a top 10 PBWR tackle last season -- left Sunday's game with an ankle injury and is considered day-to-day.
The Texans, missing their best pass rusher from a year ago in J.J. Watt, posted a below-average pass rush win rate in Week 1 against a below average Jaguars pass block unit, so they ought to be no match for Cleveland's strength up front.
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (vs. Lions)
Packers projected pass block win rate rank: 3rd
Lions projected pass rush win rate rank: 31st
Even in defeat, even without David Bakhtiari, Green Bay's win rates just keep plugging along near the top of the leaderboard. It's gotten to the point where I think there's a decent chance that Rodgers himself is a factor -- his hard count doesn't allow opponents to get great jumps, perhaps? -- but no matter why it happens, the Packers give Rodgers good protection. The unit should have a particularly easy time against Detroit, who wasn't expected to have a strong pass rush and didn't in Week 1. This is a prime rebound opportunity for Rodgers after a disappointing start to the season.
Disadvantageous Pass Blocking Matchups
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons (at Buccaneers)
Falcons projected pass block win rate rank: 31st
Buccaneers projected pass rush win rate rank: 2nd
A total pass protection mismatch. Tackle Kaleb McGary, guard Jalen Mayfield and center Matt Hennessy were all serious liabilities in pass protection in Week 1. And now they face the Bucs -- second only to the Steelers in projected pass rush win rate -- and their blitz-heavy defense. It's going to be a problem.
Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders (at Steelers)
Raiders projected pass block win rate rank: 20th
Steelers projected pass rush win rate rank: 1st
The Steelers' pass rush is a headache for any offense. It starts with defending sack leader T.J. Watt but it doesn't end there -- Alex Highsmith followed up a sneaky good rookie campaign by starting this season with the third-best pass rush win rate at edge in Week 1 and Cam Heyward also dropped into the top 10 in pass rush win rate at defensive tackle.
The Raiders' pass protection was middling against the Ravens (not bad, considering the opposition) but it's no strength. If Richie Incognito -- third in PBWR among guards in 2019 -- is out like he was in the opener, that won't help either.
Notable Adjustments
Kelvin Beachum, Arizona Cardinals
Beachum is day-to-day with a rib injury, and at least pass blocking-wise, would be a big miss for Arizona. Beachum, quietly, has been a top-16 pass blocking tackle in each of the last three seasons, and Matt Bowen and I recently broke down his game as an underrated talent. Should he miss this week's game, Kyler Murray's pass protection would look a little less favorable against Minnesota.
Sack Watch
Each we identify players particularly likely to record a sack in their upcoming game, based on their matchup and the tendency of the opposing quarterback to take sacks.
Jadeveon Clowney, Cleveland Browns
Though Marcus Cannon was solid in Week 1, history suggests he'll be an issue for Houston as he ranked 51st and 54th in pass block win rate among tackles in 2018 and 2019. That's who Clowney will face off against, en route to Tyrod Taylor, who takes sacks at a very high rate. It's a perfect setup for Clowney to pick up his first sack since 2019.
Chris Jones, Kansas City Chiefs
Alejandro Villanueva was a weakness in pass protection for the Steelers in 2020, and he certainly looked like a liability on Monday night in his Ravens' debut, ranking 61st out of 65 tackles in pass block win rate. Even Ronnie Stanley didn't look like himself, ranking 44th in Week 1 in pass protection and dead last in run blocking. The door is open for Jones to sack Lamar Jackson, who takes sacks at a little above average rate.
Chase Young, Washington Football Team
Giants RT Nate Solder had a rough go against Von Miller in both players' return to action since 2019. It isn't about to get any easier: Young will square off against the right side of the Giants line that protects one of the most sack-happy quarterbacks in the league: Daniel Jones.
Shaquil Barrett, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Remember the Falcons' pass protection struggles I mentioned a minute ago? Barrett is the best suited to take advantage. He'll get a juicy matchup against McGary, who ranked 59th out of 65 tackles in Week 1 in pass block win rate and 47th a year ago, but the entire Falcons line is going to have trouble. Matt Ryan took sacks at a slightly above average clip in 2020.