Can a zero-RB strategy result in success in an ESPN fantasy football league?
It's a question that elicits an "it's complicated" answer, but with the strategy increasingly amplified across the industry in recent seasons, diving deep into that answer is important. ESPN's standard leagues -- in which you start two running backs, two wide receivers, one tight end and one flex (which can be RB/WR/TE) -- are a different animal than other formats, and that influences the answer, just as the answer can change in custom leagues.
Defining a zero-RB approach
There's a critical difference between adopting a zero-RB strategy and deciding in advance of the draft that you're comfortable drafting another position in the early rounds when the value is right. Flexibility, and recognition of opportunities that present themselves mid-draft, is paramount to your draft-day success. The zero-RB strategy, when deployed by its common definition, stipulates that no running backs be selected with a team's first three picks of the draft, and in most iterations, it's actually the first five rounds in which the position should be avoided.
How successful were those who tried it in 2020?
In 10-team ESPN leagues, this was an extremely difficult strategy to undertake in 2020. With many thanks to Sean Comerford, who is a part of our ESPN League Manager team, we know that just 1.7% of teams employed the zero-RB approach last season, going five rounds without selecting a running back to start their drafts. Of those teams, only 4.1% captured their league's championship.
Teams went the first four rounds RB-free in 3.7% of ESPN leagues, and of those teams, only 5.5% completed the season with a league title. And if you're curious about teams that went the first three rounds without selecting a running back, 7.9% did it, and of those, 6.6% won the championship. Consider the importance of those numbers: If every team has an equal chance at a league championship in advance of the draft, then each team in a 10-team league would have a 10% chance of victory, so it's clear that avoidance of the running back position early in our standard game noticeably hurt your odds.
Part of that might be those teams residing in a lower draft position, which has historically decreased a team's championship odds in ESPN leagues. The zero-RB strategy, after all, is often a popular one among teams that land a later first-round pick -- where elite wide receivers and tight ends are more commonly available and the running backs on the board feel more like reaches -- but those low championship rates should still raise caution in managers' minds.
It's almost assuredly more than that, though. A key difference in ESPN leagues is the starting lineup itself. As mentioned above, we require only two starting wide receivers (plus a flex that can also be a wide receiver), whereas many leagues now start three WRs (in addition to at least one flex). That means ESPN standard leagues offer fewer lineup spots from which to gain production, and a higher replacement level at the wide receiver position, one with a level of depth that provides the very hook that fuels the strategy. A team that goes five rounds without selecting a running back is almost assuredly either taking both a quarterback and tight end, at risk of greatly overpaying at either spot relative to replacement, or drafting a wide receiver to the bench before ever taking its first running back.
In which leagues does zero-RB work best?
Beyond the ESPN standard setup, though, zero-RB has more situational than universal value. It's a strategy that works better when your league starts more wide receivers and flexes, when it more heavily weighs receptions, and when the draft boards' values steer you into its direction.
PPR scoring, and to a lesser degree half-PPR, is the ideal place to try it, but again, that should be a three-plus-wide receiver format rather than the ESPN standard. The receiving weights help push wide receiver and tight end scoring into a similar range as the top running backs, helping justify their selection with your early-round picks. Much more importantly, PPR scoring provides a specific benefit to the running back position that can be exploited in zero-RB.
In the past five seasons, 56 running backs that were drafted outside the top-50 overall selections on average in ESPN leagues finished in the top 25 at the position in PPR fantasy points. Of those 56, 36 scored at least one-third of their fantasy production on receiving plays, and of those, 18 scored at least half as receivers. Additionally, 30 of the top 25 running backs during that five-year span (or six per year) were selected outside the top 100 picks, and of that group, 21 scored at least 35% of their fantasy points on receiving plays.
That doesn't come as a complete shock, as third-down-style backs like J.D. McKissic (2020), James White (2018), Mike Davis (2020), Nyheim Hines (2020) and Javorius Allen (2017) are often those that slide in fantasy drafts, yet provide enough production in limited roles to keep a zero-RB team afloat. All five finished among the top 25 in PPR scoring at the position in those seasons, and White was the only one of the five who was drafted in all ESPN leagues on average that season.
Here's the harsh reality, addressing any league in which you adopt the zero-RB approach, though: While there are always productive running backs available in the later rounds of your draft and on the waiver wire during the season, be aware that demand for the position is exceedingly high, diminishing the chances you'll be able to be able to acquire the players you need to execute it properly.
Taking those same five seasons and ESPN's ADP (average draft position), 69 of the 125 running backs that comprised those annual top-25 PPR fantasy lists were players who were selected in the first 50 overall selections. Another 15 were selected between picks 51 and 70 and only 24 (or 19.2%) were running backs selected within the first 160 picks but outside the top 70. Another 17 RBs to finish in the top 25 went completely undrafted.
So, yes, there are high-level running backs that can be drafted late or picked up in season, but it's still less than one-third that have been found outside the first 70 picks -- seven rounds in ESPN leagues -- in the past half-decade.
That signals a need to let the draft come to you, rather than lock yourself into an inflexible strategy that might cause value to be left on the table. Drafts such as our recent 12-team mock, in which nine running backs went among the first 11 picks, might coax the No. 12 team to go zero-RB, in order to exploit strong wide receiver values such as Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs. In a league that sees three wide receivers -- add Davante Adams to those two -- and TE1 Travis Kelce go in the first 11 picks, it'd make a lot more sense for a No. 11 or 12 team to take an Austin Ekeler, Aaron Jones, Antonio Gibson or Nick Chubb with one of its first two picks, foregoing zero-RB.
Top zero-RB options to target
If you do fall into a zero-RB strategy, though, don't lose hope. Here are three of my favorite mid-round choices at the position -- those currently going outside the top 50 overall picks in ESPN ADP -- who might make the strategy work:
Mike Davis, Atlanta Falcons: An inconsistent, albeit productive, fill-in for the injured Christian McCaffrey in Carolina last season, Davis finished as RB12 while catching 59 passes in a weaker passing game than the one he'll play in with the Falcons. There's little competition for touches in the Atlanta backfield and the team is sure to rank among the leaders in pass attempts in 2021, boosting Davis' fantasy value by means of the aforementioned hefty receiving work.
Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos: The No. 35 overall selection in the 2021 NFL draft, Williams might well overtake Melvin Gordon III for the team's starting job by midseason. Williams is one of the more elusive prospects in this year's class, which should provide the team a noticeable upgrade over Gordon. He's a favorite of mine among prospective breakout candidates.
Trey Sermon, San Francisco 49ers: While Raheem Mostert is widely considered the team's starter, the team does tend to lean committee style and Mostert's injury history does raise questions about his ability to hold the role all season. Sermon is another elusive prospect who handled hefty workloads during his Ohio State career, and he has considerable upside for a running back not going within the positional top 35.
A reminder: Be flexible with your draft strategy
There is no singular way to win your fantasy football draft, and fancily labeled strategies often lure managers into making faulty decisions trying to stick to their aesthetics. Zero-RB serves as a reminder that you can succeed even if you come out of the first two rounds without a running back, but it's not a reason to force it in successive rounds, should the positional values fall right in Rounds 3-5.