It's one of the questions I get asked most often during the offseason.
"Who is this year's ______
It's not a simple question to answer because no two scenarios are exactly alike. But there are obviously comparable players in similar situations. And, if the people want comparisons, comparisons they shall have.
The process here was simple: I jotted down each of 2020's top breakout players and came up with a short list of players who fit a similar pedigree as they enter 2021. Below is analysis of each player who best fits the bill, as well as the other players who landed on the short list.
Note that this is not my way of predicting that these players will definitely break out this season. Again, it's simply the players positioned to do as a product of landing in a similar situation to those players who exploded onto the fantasy scene last season.
This season's David Montgomery: Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Montgomery was a post-hype RB who enjoyed a breakout season.
Montgomery was the recommended post-hype RB target in this piece one year ago and, thanks in part to a Tarik Cohen injury and an extremely easy schedule, he delivered the goods. Edwards-Helaire is actually better positioned for a breakout than Montgomery, as the 2020 first-round pick has less competition (Darrel Williams, Jerick McKinnon) and is operating as the clear feature back in an elite Kansas City offense. "CEH" disappointed with only two top-10 fantasy weeks in 13 outings last season, but dealt with injuries and bad touchdown luck. Behind an overhauled and improved offensive line, Edwards-Helaire could be a major value in Round 2/3 of 2021 drafts.
Other candidates: Zack Moss, Ronald Jones II, AJ Dillon, Darrell Henderson Jr.
This season's J.K. Dobbins/Cam Akers/Jonathan Taylor/Antonio Gibson/D'Andre Swift: Javonte Williams
These five 2020 rookie running backs came out of the gates slowly (to varying degrees) before eventually leaping onto the fantasy radar.
Slow starts are common for rookie backs -- especially those not selected in the early first round -- so last year's results were far from a surprise. Whereas Pittsburgh rookie Najee Harris is positioned for a feature back role right out of the gate, Williams appears destined for committee work early on. Williams will need to fend off veteran and likely early-season starter Melvin Gordon III for touches. It may take a month or so, but the rookie is likely to take on a larger workload as the season progresses and, if things go as expected, should eventually emerge into weekly RB2 options.
Other candidates: Trey Sermon, Michael Carter
This season's James Robinson: Javian Hawkins
Robinson was an undrafted rookie who quickly became a weekly lineup lock.
OK, this one is borderline impossible, but I know you're wondering, so I'll address it. The fact is, we may not see another James Robinson for, say, 20 years. Does that seem like an exaggeration? It isn't, as evidenced by the fact that Robinson is the only undrafted free agent (UDFA) to finish as a top-12 fantasy RB in more than 20 years. In fact, only three UDFAs have even managed a top-25 campaign during the span (Phillip Lindsay 2018, Dominic Rhodes 2001). Granted it's a long shot, but in the spirit of limiting myself to one "None" per article (still to come), I went with Falcons' UDFA Hawkins as the most likely to follow in Robinson's footsteps. Hawkins doesn't exactly profile as a feature back, and actually Lindsay might be the better comp here, as he's undersized, quick and explosive but not a strong bet for much between-the-tackles work. The reason he makes the list here is pretty simple: opportunity. Atlanta's lead back is 28-year-old and longtime reserve Mike Davis and the team's top backups are Cordarrelle Patterson, Qadree Ollison and Tony Brooks-James. It's obviously unlikely, but if Hawkins shows well in camp (as Robinson did) and during the preseason, he has a path to a big rookie-season role. Keep his name on your radar.
Other candidates: Jaret Patterson (UDFA), Gerrid Doaks (seventh round), Jermar Jefferson (seventh round), Jake Funk (seventh round)
This season's Mike Davis: Devontae Booker
Davis was an overlooked veteran insurance back who leaped to RB1 status.
This is another tough once since it relies on injury, but there are a few overlooked insurance backs worth keeping your eye on. Remember, Davis was released by Chicago in 2019 and entered last season competing for a backup job. All it took was a Christian McCaffrey injury and Davis was vaulted into the weekly RB1 mix. Booker is in a similar situation as the direct and clear backup to Saquon Barkley. If Barkley has a setback during his recovery from last season's knee injury or misses additional time, Booker very well could push for 15-plus touches per game (a mark he reached twice in Las Vegas last season). Booker busted in Denver and is now 29 years old, but similar to Davis, he's one injury away from major fantasy value. For more on the topic, check out my complete 1-to-32 ranking of 2021 insurance RBs.
Other candidates: Rashaad Penny, Sony Michel, Kerryon Johnson, Phillip Lindsay
This season's Myles Gaskin: Ty Johnson
Gaskin was a young, low-pedigree back who leaped to RB2 status by emerging in a messy backfield.
Gaskin was overlooked big-time last season after Miami added presumed lead backs Jordan Howard and Matt Breida during the offseason. Similarly, Jets' incumbent RBs Johnson and 2020 fourth-round pick La'Mical Perine aren't getting much attention after the Jets signed Tevin Coleman and drafted Michael Carter in the fourth round. Considering how little Coleman did in San Francisco and the low hit rate of Day 3 backs, it wouldn't be a surprise if Johnson -- a 2019 sixth-round pick by Detroit -- plays a big early-season role. Johnson has appeared in 29 games and has shown well, racking up 527 yards on 117 carries (4.50 YPC), while also chipping in as a receiver (208 yards on 53 targets). Johnson has already generated some offseason buzz and is, at the very least, a name to keep on your watch list. The same goes for Perine.
Other candidates: Wayne Gallman II, Qadree Ollison, J.J. Taylor, Darius Bradwell, Antonio Williams, Xavier Jones
This season's Kyler Murray: Justin Herbert
Murray emerged into a top-end QB1 in his second NFL season.
Murray made the leap from QB8 as a rookie to QB3 last season, whereas Herbert was QB9 during an impressive rookie campaign in which he didn't even play in Week 1. Herbert benefited from an extremely high-volume offense (the Chargers' 1,125 offensive snaps was the league's eighth-highest mark over the past decade) and will have a new coaching staff in 2021. The scheme change could limit Herbert's volume, but he can overcome it with a step forward in play (as expected for a second-year QB) and continued production with his legs (234 yards, five TDs last season). The 23-year-old has a ton of upside.
Other candidates: Tua Tagovailoa, Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts
This season's Justin Herbert: Trevor Lawrence
Herbert was a fantasy QB1 as a rookie.
So if Herbert is this year's Murray, who is this year's Herbert? Though there are several appealing rookie QBs, Lawrence is the obvious pick. The first-overall pick back in April, Lawrence will be the Week 1 starter for a Jacksonville offense loaded with talented targets, including DJ Chark Jr., Laviska Shenault Jr., Marvin Jones Jr. and James Robinson. Over the past decade, eight rookie QBs have finished better than 15th in fantasy points. Six were early-first-round picks and all eight were productive with their legs, with each adding at least 213 rushing yards (442.3 average) and four TDs (6.4 average). Lawrence is more than capable with his legs, having run for 943 yards and 18 TDs on 231 carries (43 were sacks, 46 were scrambles) during three seasons at Clemson. Lawrence is best valued as a QB2, but don't be surprised if he flirts with QB1 numbers.
Other candidates: Trey Lance, Zach Wilson, Justin Fields
This season's Stefon Diggs: Kenny Golladay
Diggs was a polarizing veteran who changed teams during the offseason before exploding into a WR1.
Prior to last season, Diggs was valued as a WR3 by most after never appearing in a 16-game regular season or finishing higher than 10th at WR in fantasy points. Similarly, Golladay (who is one month older than Diggs), has managed only one 16-game season, has never finished a season higher than ninth in fantasy points, moved from the Lions to the Giants during the offseason and is being drafted as a WR3. Golladay's stock is down after he appeared in only four full games due to injury last season, but he was productive when active, managing at least 14.5 fantasy points in all four outings. If Daniel Jones can make a leap forward (similar to the leap Josh Allen made with Diggs in the mix in Buffalo), Golladay could easily return to the WR1 discussion.
Other candidates: Corey Davis, Curtis Samuel, Nelson Agholor
This season's Calvin Ridley: Terry McLaurin
Ridley exploded into a weekly WR1 in his third NFL season.
Year 3 used to be the breakout age for WRs. We're impatient these days, but there are still some high-end talents who need a few years before emerging into a fantasy star. Ridley posted fantasy finishes of 22nd and 27th before exploding to fifth last season. McLaurin finished 29th and 20th in his first two seasons and is well positioned for another big leap in Year 3. The biggest boost in his outlook comes via a quarterback upgrade from Dwayne Haskins (96 of his career targets), Alex Smith (51), Case Keenum (41), Kyle Allen (27) and Colt McCoy (seven) to Ryan Fitzpatrick. Assuming the more-aggressive Fitzpatrick pushes the ball down field more often than we've seen from Washington recently, the speedy McLaurin "F1" will have plenty more opportunities for big plays, especially if he sustains last season's 25% target share.
Other candidates: Diontae Johnson, Deebo Samuel
This season's Justin Jefferson: None
Jefferson emerged as a WR1 in his rookie season.
Three WRs picked in the top 10 and I go with the boring "None" answer? The humanity! Here's the thing, though: history tells us that rookies are extreme long shots to reach WR1 status. Consider that Jefferson is one of only four rookie WRs to finish top 12 in fantasy points over the past 20 years (Anquan Boldin, Michael Thomas and Odell Beckham Jr. were the others). Oddly enough, none of those four were top-10 overall picks. Of course, while they may not reach WR1 status, all three rookies do have a good shot at Year 1 fantasy relevance. Over the past decade, six wide receivers have been picked in the top 10 and went on to appear in at least 13 games. All six were top 30 in fantasy points and two cracked the top 20 (Mike Evans, A.J. Green). Chase, Smith and Waddle should be on your radar as WR3/flex options with WR2 upside.
Other candidates: Ja'Marr Chase, DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle
This season's CeeDee Lamb/Brandon Aiyuk/Tee Higgins/Chase Claypool: Elijah Moore
Lamb, Aiyuk, Higgins and Claypool emerged as weekly fantasy starters as rookies.
Jefferson was the main man, but he wasn't the only fantasy-relevant rookie last season. Lamb (22nd), Claypool (23rd), Higgins (28th) and Aiyuk (35th) all had their ups and downs, but each was top 35 in fantasy points by season's end. Including Jefferson, those five wideouts made up nearly half of the 11 WRs picks in the first 50 picks of the draft. In the 2021 draft, 10 WRs were selected in the first two rounds, including seven in the top 50. Of those selections, Moore has generated the most hype this offseason and appears ticketed for a major role right out of the gate. Granted he's dealing with plenty of veteran competition and a rookie QB, but you could've said one or both of those things about Lamb, Higgins and Claypool last season. Rookie receivers picked on Day 1 or 2 should always be on your radar late in your draft.
Other candidates: Rashod Bateman, Rondale Moore, Terrace Marshall Jr., Kadarius Toney, D'Wayne Eskridge
This season's T.J. Hockenson/Noah Fant: Adam Trautman and Cole Kmet
Hockenson and Fant both emerged as TE1s in their second NFL season.
Hockenson and Fant were both first-round picks, whereas Kmet and Trautman were Day 2 selections, but it's fair to say the two second-year tight ends are positioned for a big leap this season. Kmet (the first tight end selected in the 2020 draft) wasn't a fantasy factor as a rookie, but he did get a big promotion in the second half of the season, playing 88% of the snaps and handling a 17% target share (5.7 per game) during his final six games. He could rise as high as second in line for targets in Chicago this season. Trautman was a third-round pick last season and is now atop the New Orleans depth chart following the offseason departures of Jared Cook and Josh Hill. The Saints have major depth issues behind Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara, so Trautman could rise as high as third in line for targets. Both young tight ends should be on your radar late in drafts.
Other candidates: Brycen Hopkins, Harrison Bryant, Colby Parkinson
This season's Logan Thomas/Robert Tonyan: Anthony Firkser
Thomas and Tonyan were "late breakout" veteran tight ends who posted a TE1 campaign.
The Titans acquired another potential target hog in Julio Jones during the offseason, but they also watched Corey Davis, Adam Humphries and Jonnu Smith depart via free agency. The latter is, of course, most notable, as Firkser is the next man up at tight end with Smith out the door. We got a tease of this scenario last season when Smith left injured in Week 6 and then was out in Week 13. Firkser posted an 8-113-1 receiving line on nine targets in Week 6 and then a 5-51-0 line on seven targets in Week 13. Tennessee is a run-first offense with an elite WR duo, but this is also a unit that is tied for the NFL lead in touchdowns over the past two seasons (seriously). Firkser is available late in drafts and certainly sports TE1 upside.
Other candidates: Blake Jarwin, C.J. Uzomah, Dan Arnold, Jacob Hollister, Kahale Warring, Donald Parham Jr., Mo Alie-Cox, Tyler Conklin, Chris Herndon, Will Dissly, O.J. Howard (I know. This is way too many names, but there are a lot of intriguing candidates for this designation).
This season's Darren Waller: Logan Thomas
Waller was a 2019 breakout who was underrated in 2020 drafts after his team added competition for targets.
Waller was one of the best values in drafts last season after the Raiders added Nelson Agholor and rookies Henry Ruggs III and Bryan Edwards at wide receiver. Similarly, Thomas is being knocked after Washington signed Curtis Samuel and Adam Humphries and drafted Dyami Brown. Thomas is fantasy's reigning No. 3 tight end, but often can be had in the ninth round of 12-team leagues. That is a major steal for a variety of reasons, which I laid out at length in this piece.
Other candidates: Eric Ebron, Mike Gesicki, Evan Engram