The NFL continues to evolve as so to must our fantasy analysis.
Back in 2007, NFL offenses had three or more wide receivers on the field for 55% of pass plays. That number reached an all-time high at 76% in 2016 and was at 73% each of the past two seasons.
The drastic change in personnel usage has led to fewer wasted snaps on fullbacks (multiple RB sets are down from 27% to 9% during the span) and more usage and targets for wide receivers who were once considered bench players, but are now de facto starters in most schemes.
By evaluating the personnel usage of each team and coach, we can determine which players' snap counts will get a boost -- and those who will see a dip. Of course, it's not as simple as just looking at last season's numbers as roster turnover and especially coaching changes are sure to have an effect.
Below is a projection of how often each offense will have three or more wide receivers on the field in 2021, as well as a look at the players who will be most affected in fantasy.
This evaluation of each offensive scheme can give you a leg up on your league mates on draft day.
Note: Mentions of three-plus wide receiver sets throughout this article refer only to pass plays. The asterisk (*) represents the projected offensive playcaller for each team.
1. Buffalo Bills
HC: Sean McDermott, OC: Brian Daboll*
Projected 3+ WR sets: 90%
Buffalo is a good bet to repeat as the NFL leader in 3+ WR sets after ranking first in the category last season (94%), as well as second in 4+ WR sets (17%). Buffalo had not ranked better than 10th in 3+ WR sets since 2014, but Daboll's offenses have checked in at 80% or higher each of his past three seasons calling plays.
Fantasy spin: Buffalo did little to address the tight end position during the offseason, so it's safe to expect a heavy dose of Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, Gabriel Davis and newcomer Emmanuel Sanders (who is replacing John Brown) in 2021. Diggs and Beasley were both top-30 fantasy WRs last season and second-year Gabriel Davis has an excellent path to joining that mix. He'll just need to fend off 34-year-old Sanders for clear No. 3 duties.
2. Cincinnati Bengals
HC: Zac Taylor*, OC: Brian Callahan
Projected 3+ WR sets: 87%
In Taylor's two seasons as head coach, the Bengals ranked fifth (84%) in 2019 and third (88%) in 2020 in 3+ WR sets. Last season, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and A.J. Green all finished top-30 among wide receivers in targets.
Fantasy spin: Green is gone, but Cincinnati made it clear that they'll remain heavy on '11' personnel when they spent the fifth-overall pick of the draft on Ja'Marr Chase. The LSU product joins Higgins and slot man Boyd to form one of the league's best WR trios. The three will be on the field together on most plays and all are potential weekly fantasy starters. The return of TE C.J. Uzomah from a torn Achilles is the only reason the number isn't even higher.
3. Dallas Cowboys
HC: Mike McCarthy, OC: Kellen Moore*
Projected 3+ WR sets: 85%
McCarthy's past eight offenses have finished at or above 80% in 3+ WR sets. Those eight averaged 86%, which is exactly where Dallas finished in 2020. The Cowboys ranked sixth in the category and only Jacksonville used the '11' personnel package more often (82%).
Fantasy spin: All three of Amari Cooper (15th), CeeDee Lamb (22nd) and Michael Gallup (38th) were fantasy relevant in 2020 and that was with Dak Prescott missing roughly one-third of the season. The elite trio returns in 2021 and will rarely leave the field in Dallas' fast-moving, high-volume pass offense. Blake Jarwin's return from injury could lead to more offensive creativity, but Dallas is still sure to rank among the league leaders in '11'.
4. Pittsburgh Steelers
HC: Mike Tomlin, OC: Matt Canada*
Projected 3+ WR sets: 85%
The Steelers have finished above league average in 3+ WR sets during 10 of the past 12 seasons and were barely below average during the two exceptions. That includes 90% in 2020, which was second-highest in the NFL. As a result, Pittsburgh was the only team with three top-23 fantasy wide receivers (JuJu Smith-Schuster 16th, Diontae Johnson 21st, Chase Claypool 23rd).
Fantasy spin: Pittsburgh replaced Randy Fichtner with Matt Canada, but even after scheme adjustments, it's hard to imagine Smith-Schuster, Johnson and/or Claypool (not to mention WR4 James Washington) leaving the field for rookie TE Pat Freiermuth on a majority of plays. Ben Roethlisberger has made a habit of supporting three fantasy relevant WRs and he's a good bet to do it again in 2021.
5. Los Angeles Rams
HC: Sean McVay*, OC: Kevin O'Connell
Projected 3+ WR sets: 81%
The Rams had 3+ WRs on the field for 79% of plays last season, which was 10th highest in the NFL, but also the lowest ever for an offense in which McVay called the plays (his previous low was 82% in 2016). In fact, the Rams had posted rates of 92%, 97% and 86% during McVay's first three seasons as head coach.
Fantasy spin: TE Gerald Everett and WR Josh Reynolds are out, with rookie TE Jacob Harris and WRs DeSean Jackson and rookie Tutu Atwell in. The net change here is likely to mean more wide receiver usage in 2021 and perhaps a return to where McVay was in a year's past. Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp are safe weekly fantasy starters, whereas 2020 second-round pick Van Jefferson, Jackson and Atwell will compete for No. 3 duties. If one of the three locks down the gig, there is certainly a path to WR3/flex numbers with Matthew Stafford in the fold. Jefferson is the most interesting late-round flier.
6. Washington Football Team
HC: Ron Rivera, OC: Scott Turner*
Projected 3+ WR sets: 81%
Turner was well above average in 3+ WR sets in his brief time as Carolina's OC in 2019 (83%) and settled in at 78% (12th highest in the NFL) in Washington last season. Rivera's Carolina offenses rarely used 3+ WR sets during the Cam Newton era, but his past three teams have been at 76% or higher.
Fantasy spin: Washington was above average in 3+ WR sets last season despite major depth issues at the position behind Terry McLaurin, so the offseason additions of Curtis Samuel, Adam Humphries and third-round pick Dyami Brown (not to mention weak TE depth) figures to lead to an even higher number in 2021. McLaurin and Samuel are starting options in fantasy, but this scheme opens the door for whoever wins the No. 3 job (likely Humphries or Brown) to surprise in fantasy. Consider either one for a late pick in deep leagues.
7. New York Jets
HC: Robert Saleh, OC: Mike LaFleur*
Projected 3+ WR sets: 80%
This one is tricky. Saleh and LaFleur come from a Kyle Shanahan coaching tree that relied very little on 3+ WR sets, but the Jets invested in Corey Davis and Keelan Cole during free agency, Elijah Moore in the second round of April's draft and kept Jamison Crowder around (not to mention 2020 second-round pick Denzel Mims).
Fantasy spin: When the Jets pass the ball, a trio of their strong WR core will surely be on the field over the likes of reserve TEs Ryan Griffin and Tyler Kroft. It's hard to imagine more than two of them settling in as consistent fantasy options in an offense with a rookie QB, but the good news is that none of them are particularly expensive in fantasy drafts. There will be plenty of WR targets to go around, so late fliers on any of the five receivers is justifiable.
8. Jacksonville Jaguars
HC: Urban Meyer, OC: Darrell Bevell*
Projected 3+ WR sets: 80%
Meyer is a rookie NFL coach and his influence will certainly be felt, but it's experienced NFL OC Bevell who will call the plays. Bevell has been slightly or moderately above average in 3+ WR sets in seven straight seasons as an OC. In fact, each of his past six offenses have been in the 74% to 79% range (his Lions were at 79% in 2020).
Fantasy spin: Upon Meyer's arrival, Jacksonville invested the bare minimum in the tight end position (James O'Shaughnessy is atop the depth chart), but quite a bit at wide receiver (Marvin Jones Jr., Phillip Dorsett, Jamal Agnew, among others). Jones joins DJ Chark Jr. and Laviska Shenault Jr. to form a good trio with the potential to be great and it's hard to imagine any of the three sitting out in favor of reserve TEs Chris Manhertz or Ben Ellefson when the team is passing. If Trevor Lawrence is solid, Chark, Shenault and Jones (none of who are overly pricey in fantasy drafts) can all pay off their ADPs.
9. Arizona Cardinals
HC: Kliff Kingsbury*, OC: Kliff Kingsbury
Projected 3+ WR sets: 79%
Arizona ranked seventh in the NFL in 3+ WR sets in Kingsbury's first season with the team in 2019 (81%), but fell to 14th (77%) in 2020. The team also used a lot less 4+ WR sets (from 42% to 27%), though their 2020 rate still led the NFL.
Fantasy spin: Pass-catching TE Dan Arnold departed and was not replaced during the offseason, whereas Arizona improved its wide receiver depth by signing A.J. Green (a de facto Larry Fitzgerald replacement) and drafting Ronald Moore in the second round. Hopkins and Green are likely to work as the team's clear one-two punch, though the scheme very well could allow Moore to leap onto the fantasy radar early on in his career. Most drafters are focused on other young receivers, but Moore shouldn't be overlooked in the late rounds.
10. Indianapolis Colts
HC: Frank Reich*, OC: Marcus Brady
Projected 3+ WR sets: 79%
Reich's offense finished below average in 3+ WR sets in each of his first two seasons with the Colts (74%, 68%), but spiked to 83% (seventh) in 2020. The Colts rolled out the '11' package on 83% of plays last season, which ranked fourth in the NFL.
Fantasy spin: Brady is in and Nick Sirianni out as OC, but this is still Reich's offense, so we shouldn't expect any drastic changes. The Colts failed to improve their short-term TE situation during the offseason, but will be in good (perhaps great) shape at WR if Michael Pittman Jr. takes a step forward and Parris Campbell stays healthy alongside 31-year-old T.Y. Hilton. Reich's scheme adjustment last season is good news for the snap counts of Pittman and Campbell and increases their opportunity for a 2021 breakout. Pittman is a bit pricey, but Campbell has the look of an excellent late-round pick.
11. Miami Dolphins
HC: Brian Flores, Co-OCs: Eric Studesville*/George Godsey*
Projected 3+ WR sets: 79%
If you come across personnel usage data this offseason, you'll likely notice that Miami ranked dead last (by far) in 3+ WR sets last season. This is extremely misleading, as all or most are counting Lynn Bowden Jr. and Malcolm Perry as running backs despite the fact that the duo combined to align in the backfield on only 26 (6%) of 470 snaps. Fixing that error boosts Miami to an above average finish in the category and, if you also consider that Mike Gesicki is essentially a wideout (he aligned at WR on 80% of his snaps in 2020), it's clear that the team was extremely reliant on the position.
WR-friendly OC Chan Gailey is out, but Godsey was heavy on 3+ WR packages in two seasons as an OC in 2015 (77%) and 2016 (76%). Studesville was an interim head coach for a few weeks back in 2010 and was also heavy in the department (71%, which was way above the 60% league average back then). It's undetermined who will call plays as of June.
Fantasy spin: Miami's coordinator change adds uncertainty to the situation, but the team's on-field offseason personnel decisions paint a pretty clear picture: more WR usage is on the way. Miami signed Will Fuller V away from Houston and also spent a top-10 pick on Jaylen Waddle. Those two figure to join DeVante Parker as near-every-down players, though Miami also has quality depth with Preston Williams, Bowden, Perry, Albert Wilson, Jakeem Grant and Allen Hurns. If second-year QB Tua Tagovailoa makes a second-year leap, Parker, Fuller and Waddle will play enough to warrant weekly starting consideration in fantasy.
12. Detroit Lions
HC: Dan Campbell, OC: Anthony Lynn*
Projected 3+ WR sets: 78%
Each of Lynn's pass three offenses (all while head coach of the Chargers) finished between 78-79% in 3+ WR sets. Campbell was a head coach in 2015 and his offense sat at 78%.
Fantasy spin: Scheme suggests this team will be above average in 3+ WR sets, but a look at the depth chart -- Breshad Perriman, Tyrell Williams, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Quintez Cephus -- suggests that may not be feasible. Detroit will utilize 35-year-old No. 2 TE Darren Fells and work in some multiple-RB sets with D'Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams, but this is a rebuilding team that will need to throw the ball often. That will mean a lot of wide receivers on the field. The history of Day 3 rookie wide receivers tells us to avoid St. Brown, but the others are on the sleeper radar considering their late-round ADPs.
13. Denver Broncos
HC: Vic Fangio, OC: Pat Shurmur*
Projected 3+ WR sets: 77%
Shurmur took over as OC last season and Denver's usage of 3+ WR sets jumped from 60% (28th) to 76% (17th). That aligns with Shurmur's past, as seven of his past eight offenses have been above average in the category (77% average during the span).
Fantasy spin: Denver is deep at wide receiver with 2020 early-round picks Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler, as well as Tim Patrick still in the mix and Courtland Sutton back from last season's torn ACL. That depth combined with Shurmur's history suggests Denver will lean heavily on three of those receivers and Noah Fant in most passing situations. Sutton and Jeudy are fine at their mid-round ADPs, but Hamler (a second-round pick) deserves more late-round love.
14. Kansas City Chiefs
HC: Andy Reid*, OC: Eric Bieniemy
Projected 3+ WR sets: 77%
After six straight seasons below league average in 3+ WR sets (usually well below average), Reid's offense ranked eighth in the category in 2020. Kansas City was at 81%, compared to a 61% average the prior six seasons, including 68% in 2019. The Chiefs' rolled with '11' personnel 81% of the time, which ranked third in the league and is the highest for a Reid offense in at least a decade.
Fantasy spin: Sammy Watkins departed in the offseason and there's chatter that the team will use more '12' personnel (Blake Bell was signed and Noah Gray drafted at tight end). Combine the team's shaky WR personnel with Reid's past and a slight or moderate drop in 3+ WR sets makes sense. Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson and Byron Pringle are the frontrunners for No. 2 duties and only a clear winner among the group would emerge as a consistent fantasy option.
15. Los Angeles Chargers
HC: Brandon Staley, OC: Joe Lombardi*
Projected 3+ WR sets: 77%
Staley is new in town and comes from Sean McVay's aforementioned 3+ WR-heavy scheme. Lombardi, meanwhile, was very heavy on 3+ WR sets during two previous seasons as an OC (76% in 2014, 81% in 2015).
Fantasy spin: The Chargers were around league average in 3+ WR sets last season and figure to fall in that range again this season after replacing TE Hunter Henry with Jared Cook and third-round pick Tre' McKitty and adding only third-round pick Josh Palmer at wideout. Justin Herbert's progression could launch the team's No. 3 WR to fantasy relevance, but time will tell if Palmer, Jalen Guyton, Tyron Johnson or someone else will win that gig. For now, the young receivers are only worth a late-round look in deep leagues.
16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
HC: Bruce Arians, OC: Byron Leftwich*
Projected 3+ WR sets: 76%
Arians' usage of 3+ WR sets has been as consistent as you'll find, as his past six offenses have all been between 74% and 78%. That includes 77% each of the past two seasons. This projection may seem low for a team with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown, but keep in mind that Tampa Bay's rate actually dipped (76%) after Antonio Brown's return in Week 9 last season.
Fantasy spin: Tampa Bay's elite WR trio guarantees plenty of '11' usage, but the return of O.J. Howard to a TE room that also includes Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate suggests the offense will remain multiple. Expect the tight ends to struggle for TE1 production as Brady keeps Evans, Godwin and Brown afloat as weekly fantasy starters.
17. Chicago Bears
HC: Matt Nagy*, OC: Bill Lazor
Projected 3+ WR sets: 76%
Nagy's offense went from well below average in 3+ WR sets back in 2018 (67%) to well above average in both 2019 (81%) and 2020 (77%).
Fantasy spin: Cole Kmet took over as Chicago's every-down TE last season, leaving Jimmy Graham in a situational role. Graham's contract, however, suggests he won't be a complete non factor in 2021. With Chicago lacking quality WR depth, a dip in 3+ WR usage seems likely. Allen Robinson and Darnell Mooney's snaps are safe, but slot man Anthony Miller's days as a worthwhile late-round sleeper are over.
18. New York Giants
HC: Joe Judge, OC: Jason Garrett*
Projected 3+ WR sets: 75%
Garrett has called the plays for five seasons over the past 12 years and four of those units ranked well below average in 3+ WR sets. That includes the 2020 season, which was his first with the Giants. New York's 66% rate ranked 23rd, as they made heavy use of No. 2 TE Kaden Smith throughout the season (28.6 snaps per game). It's worth noting that Dallas ranked above average in 3+ WR sets during each of Garrett's final five seasons with the team, though he was not calling plays during the stretch.
Fantasy spin: We should expect a lot of different looks from New York this season, as they improved at wide receivers (Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney, John Ross), added Kyle Rudolph at tight end and utilize a fullback (Elijhaa Penny). It's easy to assume three of Golladay, Toney, Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton will be on the field at all times, but the roster build and Garrett's history suggest that won't be the case. Expectations should be kept in check for the team's receivers not named Golladay.
19. Seattle Seahawks
HC: Pete Carroll, OC: Shane Waldron*
Projected 3+ WR sets: 75%
Seattle checked in above average in 3+ WR sets in seven straight seasons (76% average) before falling just below average (71%) in 2020. Of course, an offensive adjustment is expected after the team replaced Brian Schottenheimer with WR-friendly Sean McVay protégé Waldron during the offseason.
Fantasy spin: Seattle replaced retired TE Greg Olsen with Gerald Everett (who worked with Waldron in Los Angeles), but also spent a second-round pick on D'Wayne Eskridge during the offseason. The improved WR depth, combined with Waldon's past employer and Carroll's history suggests we'll see more '11' personnel this season. Eskridge is an underrated late-round pick, especially considering that Freddie Swain and Penny Hart are among his toughest competition for No. 3 duties.
20. Carolina Panthers
HC: Matt Rhule, OC: Joe Brady*
Projected 3+ WR sets: 74%
The Panthers were barely above league average (76%) in 3+ WR sets in 2020, which was Rhule and Brady's first season with the team. Despite that fact, Carolina was one of only three teams to support three top-25 fantasy WRs (Robby Anderson 19th, DJ Moore 24th, Curtis Samuel 25th).
Fantasy spin: Carolina took a short-term hit at wide receiver with Samuel departing and being replaced by rookie Terrace Marshall Jr. and journeyman David Moore. The Panthers also upgraded at tight end by signing receiving-specialist Dan Arnold. A slight drop in '11' personnel is likely and, especially with the team's QB change, it's unlikely that Carolina will support three fantasy relevant WRs again this season. Arnold, meanwhile, is a fantasy sleeper, as he's a candidate to take over a big share of the 417 routes run by Ian Thomas last season (10th most among tight ends).
21. Houston Texans
HC: David Culley, OC: Tim Kelly*
Projected 3+ WR sets: 73%
Houston changed its head coach, but not its offensive playcaller during the offseason. Kelly's offense ranked well below average in 3+ WR sets in 2019 (64%), but leapt to 74% (ranked 19th) in 2020. Culley is not calling the plays, but he's an offensive coach with a mixed background of a lot of 3+ WR sets in Philadelphia, but few with Kansas City, Buffalo and Baltimore. Fantasy spin: Houston's offseason investments included a ton of journeymen running backs and wide receivers, as well as mid-round picks WR Nico Collins and TE Brevin Jordan. The likes of Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb have secure roles, but depth is severely lacking, which means a mix of multiple personnel packages is very likely. Collins -- a third-round pick -- is a justifiable late-round pick in deep leagues, but he won't be very appealing of Deshaun Watson doesn't play.
22. Philadelphia Eagles
HC: Nick Sirianni*, OC: Shane Steichen
Projected 3+ WR sets: 73%
The Eagles have ranked outside the top 20 in 3+ WR sets each of the past five seasons and it's possible that doesn't change with Sirianni and Steichen calling the shots. Sirianni checked in below average in the category in his first two seasons with the Colts (74%, 68%), but spiked to 83% (seventh) in 2020. Steichen was at 80% and 78% during the 2019-20 seasons as the Chargers OC.
Fantasy spin: The Eagles have spent their past two first-round picks on wide receivers DeVonta Smith and Jalen Reagor and are inexplicably still in rough shape in terms of depth at the position. With that in mind, we should expect plenty of '12' personnel this season as long as Zach Ertz remains on the roster. If Ertz is traded or released, the Eagles figure to be much higher on this list, though likely not enough for someone like Greg Ward Jr. or Travis Fulgham to produce consistent flex value.
23. Baltimore Ravens
HC: John Harbaugh, OC: Greg Roman*
Projected 3+ WR sets: 68%
The Ravens made the jump from 51% in 2019 to 66% in 2020 and the offseason additions of Sammy Watkins and Rashod Bateman -- not to mention more of a commitment to the pass -- suggests the team's usage of 3+ WR sets could be even higher in 2021. That said, Roman has a long history of devaluing wide receivers and Baltimore still uses a fullback on the regular (2+ RBs on 24% of pass plays in 2020 - third highest) and drafted FB Ben Mason in the fifth round of April's draft.
Fantasy spin: In seven full seasons as a playcaller, Roman's WR units have ranked 29th, 23rd, 32nd, 13th, 21st, 32nd and 31st in fantasy points. The latter two cover his two seasons in Baltimore. Even if Baltimore ramps up its pass offense as expected, this is still a run-first, multiple scheme that will make heavy use of Lamar Jackson's legs. The likes of Bateman and Watkins will have their hands full finding a path to consistent flex value with Marquise Brown also soaking up targets.
24. Tennessee Titans
HC: Mike Vrabel, OC: Todd Downing*
Projected 3+ WR sets: 68%
Tennessee finished 23rd in 3+ WR sets in both of Vrabel's first two seasons as head coach (71% in 2018, 68% in 2019) before plummeting to 30th (54%) in 2020. Some (all?) of the latter was personnel related, as Tennessee was at 69% (23rd again!) during the five games No. 3/slot WR Adam Humphries played, but plummeted to 45% (second lowest) when he was out/barely played.
Fantasy spin: The Titans' offense will have plenty of new faces this season. OC Arthur Smith, TE Jonnu Smith and WRs Corey Davis and Humphries are all out and all of the most notable additions were wide receivers (Julio Jones, Josh Reynolds and Dez Fitzpatrick). The Anthony Firkser-Geoff Swaim TE duo will get plenty of run and FB Khari Blasingame will get his ~10 snaps per game, but it's fair to expect a bounceback in '11' personnel usage this season. Considering Ryan Tannehill's strong play the past two seasons, it's plausible that Reynolds or Fitzpatrick could sneak onto the deep league fantasy radar, but they're only worth a late lottery ticket.
25. New Orleans Saints
HC: Sean Payton*, OC: Pete Carmichael Jr.
Projected 3+ WR sets: 67%
The Saints have ranked below average in 3+ WR sets in 10 straight seasons, finishing in the 64%-to-68% range six of the past seven seasons. That includes 66% (ranked 24th) in 2020.
Fantasy spin: Drew Brees' retirement could shake things up for this offense, but massive WR depth concerns behind Michael Thomas make a big boost in WR usage unlikely. The best path to finding a WR sleeper here is by monitoring the No. 2 WR battle, with Tre'Quan Smith the favorite over Deonte Harris and Marquez Callaway. Speaking of sleepers, there's a good change second-year TE Adam Trautman finishes third on the team in targets behind Thomas and Alvin Kamara this season.
26. Green Bay Packers
HC: Matt LaFleur*, OC: Nathaniel Hackett
Projected 3+ WR sets: 65%
After ranking no lower than eighth in 3+ WR sets during each of the previous 11 seasons, Green Bay has ranked 20th (72%) and 27th (62%) in the category during LaFleur's two campaigns as head coach. A part of the reason for the low numbers is multiple-RB usage, as Green Bay ranked 10th in that department in 2019 and fifth in 2020.
Fantasy spin: Green Bay's biggest offseason addition at wide receiver was third-round wild card Amari Rodgers, so a big boost in 3+ WR sets is unlikely. That's especially the case with 2020 third-round pick FB/TE/H-Back Josiah Deguara back from a torn ACL that limited him to two games. Assuming Aaron Rodgers sticks around, it's possible No. 2 WR Allen Lazard flirts with fantasy relevance behind Davante Adams, but the likes of Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Rodgers and Devin Funchess aren't nearly as attractive.
27. Las Vegas Raiders
HC: Jon Gruden*, OC: Greg Olson
Projected 3+ WR sets: 63%
During Gruden's three seasons with the team, the Raiders have ranked 18th (76%), 27th (62%) and, most recently, 29th (60%) in 3+ WR sets. Olson's resume is all over the place in the category, but he's generally leaned away from 3+ WR sets (62% average since 2009).
Fantasy spin: The Raiders did not make any major personnel moves at WR or TE during the offseason, but the former should be better with John Brown in for Nelson Agholor and with Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards entering their second season. Jason Witten's retirement could mean fewer 2-TE sets (he played 387 snaps last season), but that will be offset to some extent by more 2+ RB sets following the signing of Kenyan Drake. Even if Las Vegas uses more '11', the lack of quality WR depth means this group likely won't be overly productive in fantasy. The good news is that none are being selected in the single-digit rounds, so the likes of Ruggs and Brown make for quality late-round fliers.
28. San Francisco 49ers
HC: Kyle Shanahan*, OC: Mike McDaniel
Projected 3+ WR sets: 58%
Shanahan has been calling plays since 2010 and his offense has finished below average in 3+ sets in nine of 11 seasons (61% average). That includes finishes of 32nd, 28th, 31st, 29th and, most recently, 28th over the past five seasons, which includes all four years of his tenure as the 49ers' head coach. Despite the low WR usage, Shanahan has not leaned on heavy TE sets, instead relying on FB Kyle Juszczyk. Shanahan has had multiple backs on the field at least 20% of the time in seven consecutive seasons.
Fantasy spin: Juszczyk is back for his age-30 season and will remain a ~30 snap per game player. That is sure to limit snaps for the team's depth wide receivers, but it's not an over appealing group anyway, with Jalen Hurd, Richie James and Mohamed Sanu among those competing for the No. 3 gig. Expect Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle to soak up nearly two-thirds of the offensive targets.
29. Atlanta Falcons
HC: Arthur Smith*, OC: Dave Ragone
Projected 3+ WR sets: 55%
Smith is the Falcons' new head coach after calling the plays for a Tennessee offense that led the NFL in touchdowns during his two seasons. His offense ranked 23rd in 3+ WR sets in 2019 (68%) before falling to 30th (54%) in 2020. Of course, as noted earlier in the Titans' capsule, the big dip was related to weak WR options after Adam Humphries' injury.
Fantasy spin: Atlanta will almost assuredly rank near the top of the NFL in 2+ TE sets after trading Julio Jones to the Titans. We should expect to see a lot of Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage at wideout, with rookie TE Kyle Pitts playing a de facto WR role and Hayden Hurst (who ran 32 routes per game last season) more of an in-line TE presence. That should be the core group of targets for Matt Ryan, as WR depth is a major concern (Olamide Zaccheaus, Christian Blake, Frank Darby, Tajae Sharpe). Ridley, Gage and Pitts should be on your radar, but that's likely it for fantasy relevance from the team's non-RBs.
30. New England Patriots
HC: Bill Belichick, OC: Josh McDaniels*
Projected 3+ WR sets: 51%
Belichick's offenses finished below average (usually way below average) in 3+ WR sets in nine consecutive seasons prior to Rob Gronkowski's retirement after the 2018 season. New England has actually been a bit above average the past two seasons (79% in 2019, 74% in 2020) and also ranked first in multiple RB sets in 2020 (30%), though that was highest for a Belichick team since at least 2009.
Fantasy spin: The recent downswing in TE usage is sure to be short lived after New England's offseason additions of TEs Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry. We should expect a return to extremely heavy '12' usage in 2021, with both newcomers on the field together on a significant percentage of pass plays. That's especially the case with the team still shaky at WR (Nelson Agholor, Jakobi Meyers and Kendrick Bourne top the depth chart). The projection here would be even lower if New England wasn't as keen on multiple RB sets (FB Jakob Johnson played 23 snaps per game last season). It's unlikely that both Henry and Smith will be viable TE1 options (history agrees with this assessment), but they'll see enough work that New England may only support one consistent fantasy starter (Agholor and Meyers are your best bests and available late in drafts).
31. Minnesota Vikings
HC: Mike Zimmer, OC: Klint Kubiak*
Projected 3+ WR sets: 50%
Zimmer's offenses hung around league average in 3+ WR sets during the 2014-18 seasons, but have been way below average the past two years (24% in 2019 with Kevin Stefanski calling plays and 48% in 2020 with Gary Kubiak). Kubiak has generally been well below average in 3+ WR usage and it's reasonable to expect a similar scheme from his son, Klint, who has taken over for dad as the team's playcaller.
Fantasy spin: There is little reason to expect anything other than low usage of 3+ WR sets after Minnesota failed to add an impact No. 3 WR during the offseason (Chad Beebe, Olabisi Johnson and fifth-round rookie Ihmir Smith-Marsette are among the top contenders). It's expected that Tyler Conklin will replace Kyle Rudolph as Irv Smith Jr.'s running mate at tight end and we'll also see plenty of FB CJ Ham (26 snaps per game last season). It's hard to imagine anyone other than Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen and Smith providing consistent fantasy production among the team's non-RBs this season.
32. Cleveland Browns
HC: Kevin Stefanski*, OC: Alex Van Pelt
Projected 3+ WR sets: 48%
No one dislikes using his third WR more than Kevin Stefanski. The second-year head coach easily ranked dead last in 3+ WR sets as Minnesota's OC in 2019 (24%) and also finished dead last as Cleveland's head coach and playcaller in 2020 (45%). Sure, Odell Beckham Jr. missed over half the season, but Cleveland was also last in 3+ WR sets during the six weeks Beckham played in full (48%).
Fantasy spin: Beckham and Jarvis Landry are back, Rashard Higgins showed well in place of Beckham down the stretch last season and Cleveland spent a third-round pick on Anthony Schwartz. That's a lot more depth that Stefanski had in the past, but (a) the team is still deep at tight end with Austin Hooper, Harrison Bryant and David Njoku and (b) he'll still lean on multiple-RB sets with some combination of Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt and FB Andy Janovich. This scheme limits fantasy upside from non-RBs and so it's hard to justify the likes of Higgins or Schwartz in the later rounds.