Football analysis has reached a new era in which player participation data has allowed us to analyze, predict and project wide receiver/cornerback matchups.
Though this data becomes exceptionally useful during the regular season, a thorough examination of each team's depth chart can allow us to determine potential upgrades and downgrades for each wide receiver before the season even begins. "Strength of schedule" is one of many variables that allow us to generate rankings, projections and draft-day decisions, and WR/CB matchup data allows us to take that analysis to the next level.
For this exercise, I've ranked each cornerback unit by focusing primarily on each team's top three corners (offenses had three wide receivers on the field for 73% of pass plays last season), while also considering the health, talent and pedigree of each team's additional depth at the position. I also examined team's "shadowing" tendencies to determine how each unit figures to fare against top-end No. 1 targets, as well as secondary and slot receivers.
Once I had each cornerback unit ranked and analyzed, I took a look at each offense's 2021 schedule and determined which wide receivers will face the easiest and toughest cornerback slates this season.
Note that since many of your leagues won't include Week 18 in the fantasy schedule, only Weeks 1-to-17 are included in this analysis. Weeks 15-17 are given some extra attention, as that will be the fantasy playoffs for many of you.
It's important not to overreact to any one variable when it comes to player evaluation, but this analysis should help you make better decisions (or at least break some ties) on draft day.
Check back throughout the season for the weekly WR/CB Matchup chart and analysis.
Cornerback rankings
Where else to start but with a quick look at what our favorite fantasy wide receivers will be dealing with in coverage this season? Here is my ranking of each of the league's 32 cornerback units:
Shadow Report
The next step is to take a look at the cornerbacks who we often see shadowing opposing No. 1 wide receivers. I broke them down into two categories: cornerbacks who shadow most weeks and ones who occasionally are asked to travel, especially when the opposing team has a clear standout No. 1 receiver. Generally, these corners will create a tough matchup/downgrade. This group will be referenced throughout the article.
Often shadow
Tre'Davious White, Bills
Jalen Ramsey, Rams
Stephon Gilmore, J.C. Jackson and Jonathan Jones, Patriots
Marshon Lattimore, Saints
James Bradberry, Giants
Darius Slay, Eagles
Carlton Davis, Buccaneers
Sometimes shadow
A.J. Bouye, Jaycee Horn and/or Donte Jackson, Panthers
Bradley Roby, Texans
Xavien Howard and Byron Jones, Dolphins
William Jackson, Washington
Malcolm Butler, Cardinals
Rarely shadow
A.J. Terrell, Falcons
Trevon Diggs, Cowboys
Jaire Alexander, Packers
Chris Harris Jr., Chargers
Casey Hayward, Raiders
Patrick Peterson, Vikings
Upgrades
49ers' Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel
The 49ers were overwhelmed by injuries last season, but the team is now healthy and the wide receiver room is ticketed for the easiest projected schedule as far as cornerback matchups go in 2021. That includes the second-easiest schedule for No. 1 wide receivers and the seventh-easiest against the slot. Aiyuk (76% perimeter) and Samuel (62%) primarily aligned on the outside last season and will thus generally see the opposing team's top corners often, but there simply aren't many intimidating corners on the 2021 slate. Of their 16 games (again, ignoring Week 18), 11 are against CB units graded as below average and the Rams are the only top-8 unit on the schedule. Aiyuk and Samuel are both breakout candidates and this certainly helps their case as strong mid-round picks.
Washington's Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel
Washington added a lot of help for McLaurin this offseason and the overhauled WR unit is sure to benefit from a CB schedule that checks in as second-easiest in the league for the season and during the playoffs. McLaurin is ticketed for 10 potential shadow situations (tied for seventh most), but the competition isn't intimidating on the whole. Samuel - not to mention rookie Dyami Brown - figure to bounce around the formation and will certainly benefit from facing nine CB units ranked in the Bottom 11 of the league and only one ranked better than eighth (Denver). Washington's slate looks very pretty down the stretch, as Seattle, Dallas (x2) and Philadelphia (x2) make up five of its final seven games.
Vikings' Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson
Thielen and Jefferson make the upgrade list for the second consecutive season. Considering both were top-10 fantasy WRs in 2020, I'd say the "light" schedule paid dividends. Minnesota will face the easiest schedule for a No. 1 wide receiver, which is a bit tricky to decipher here since both Jefferson (69% perimeter) and Thielen (74%) primarily aligned outside last season and see a hefty/similar target share. There are only four potential shadow situations on the slate, so both should benefit fairly evenly from the advantageous schedule. If there's a negative here, the Vikings' overall schedule is looking pretty tough down the stretch, as they'll face the Steelers, Bears, Rams, Packers and Bears, respectively, during Weeks 14 to 18.
Giants' Kenny Golladay, Darius Slayton, Sterling Shepard and Kadarius Toney
The Giants' overhauled WR room is set to face the fourth-easiest CB schedule in 2021. This slate is a bit unique in that New York will face an easy overall schedule and the second-easiest against the slot, but also the 12th toughest for a No. 1 WR (Golladay). This means that the likes of Slayton, Shepard and Toney stand to benefit the most during the regular season. Golladay, meanwhile, could see shadow coverage in 11 games, including potential showdowns with Darius Slay (x2), William Jackson (x2), Marshon Lattimore, Jalen Ramsey, Xavien Howard, and Carlton Davis. There is good news for Golladay: New York is ticketed for the easiest overall schedule during the playoffs, including the sixth easiest for No. 1 WRs and the fourth easiest against the slot. The Giants will face the Cowboys, Eagles and Bears during the stretch.
Rams' Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp
The Rams are projected to face the third-easiest schedule for a No. 1 WR. Sean McVay moves his receivers around quite a bit, but since Woods (54% perimeter last season) aligns outside more often than Kupp (40%), he stands to benefit more often. The Rams have the seventh-easiest overall slate, but the 13th-toughest against the slot. That all being said, we can feel slightly better about these two, especially Woods, but shouldn't make any drastic adjustments.
Cardinals' DeAndre Hopkins
The Cardinals are tied with the Bengals for the fourth-easiest schedule for a No. 1 wide receiver. Since we're not yet sure if Tee Higgins or Ja'Marr Chase will separate as Cincinnati's clear No. 1 (more on them later), we'll instead focus on Arizona's clear No. 1 WR here. Hopkins' light slate includes only six potential shadow situations, two of which will be Jalen Ramsey. Arizona also has a beneficial second-half slate for wideouts, with Hopkins primed to benefit from matchups with Seattle, Chicago, Detroit, and Dallas after Week 10.
Buccaneers' Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown ... and Mike Evans in the playoffs
Godwin is the headliner here as Tampa Bay is set up with the easiest schedule for a slot WR in 2021. Godwin aligned inside 67% of the time last season and that's unlikely to change much with Evans and Brown working the perimeter again this season. New England (Jonathan Jones) and Indianapolis (Kenny Moore) are Godwin's only intimidating matchups and he'll face several teams with major concerns at slot corner, including the Eagles, Bears and Jets. Interestingly, the Buccaneers also face the fifth-hardest schedule for a No. 1 WR, which is bad news for Evans, who could face shadow coverage in upward of 13 games (second most). The saving grace for Evans is a much easier projected playoff schedule, as Tampa Bay has a top-5 slate overall, for No. 1 WRs and for slot WRs thanks to matchups with the Saints, Panthers and Jets.
Downgrades
Jets' Corey Davis, Elijah Moore, Jamison Crowder, Denzel Mims and Keelan Cole
The Jets' perimeter receivers led this section one year ago and those who took a flier on Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims know the result: one combined top-30 fantasy week. New York drastically improved its WR depth chart during the offseason, but the bad news is that the upgraded unit will face the hardest projected schedule in 2021. That includes the toughest slate for a No. 1 perimeter WR (presumably Davis) and the third-toughest schedule against the slot (Crowder). Davis is set to face 11 potential shadow situations, including the six divisional showdowns with Stephon Gilmore, Xavien Howard and Tre'Davious White. The good news is that none of the Jets' wideouts are overly pricey on draft day, but you may need to pick your spots when plugging them into your lineup.
Raiders' Henry Ruggs III, John Brown and Hunter Renfrow/Willie Snead
The Raiders' WR room finished 27th in fantasy points last season, so it doesn't bode well that it is set to face the third-hardest schedule in 2021. That includes the fourth-hardest schedule for a No. 1 WR (this could be Ruggs or Brown). Renfrow makes this list for the second consecutive season, as Las Vegas is scheduled to face the toughest schedule for a slot receiver. The Raiders entered 2020 with the third-toughest projected slate against the slot and Renfrow ended up 59th in fantasy points while managing only two top-30 weeks. Renfrow will need to fend off newcomer Willie Snead for primary slot duties in 2021, but he's obviously shaky regardless. The Raiders also face the toughest overall schedule and No. 1 WR slate during the playoffs, as well as the second-hardest against the slot. Las Vegas' wide receivers are crazy cheap in drafts, but a path to consistent fantasy value may prove elusive.
Chargers' Keenan Allen and Mike Williams
Chargers wide receivers are projected for the second-toughest schedule this season after entering 2020 with the third-easiest projected slate. Los Angeles' tough schedule includes the third-hardest for a No. 1 WR and the hardest slate against the slot. This bodes very poorly for Allen, who aligned inside 53% of the time in 2020. It's also bad new for Williams since he'll play the de facto "No. 1 perimeter WR" role when Allen is in the slot and thus draw the opposing team's top corner quite often. Allen can still produce WR1 numbers thanks to talent, volume and a good QB situation, but the tough slate figures to limit Williams to another underwhelming fantasy showing.
Texans' Brandin Cooks
Houston will face the third-hardest overall schedule for a WR, though "only" the 10th-toughest for No. 1 WRs, with Cooks projected for six possible shadow situations. Cooks doesn't need to be downgraded more than slightly.
Cowboys' Amari Cooper
I'm on record that the Dallas offense appears to be "too good to fail", but perhaps we should be lowering expectations for Cooper and boosting them for his teammates. Dallas is set to face the second-hardest schedule for a No. 1 WR, which includes 12 potential shadow situations (tied for third most). Cooper has six very tough matchups on the slate (James Bradberry x2, Washington x2, Stephon Gilmore and Denver), as well as additional matchups against Carlton Davis, Darius Slay, Patrick Peterson and Marshon Lattimore. The schedule isn't any easier during the playoffs (potential matchups with Bradberry, Washington and Arizona). Though Dallas' overall schedule is sixth hardest, it's mid-pack against the slot. This is good news for CeeDee Lamb (93% slot in 2020). The 2020 first-round pick already carries high expectations with his third-round ADP, but he has a legitimate shot to pay it off.
Browns' Jarvis Landry
Cleveland's opposing cornerback schedule checks in around mid pack, but what stands out is the third-hardest slate against the slot. Landry aligned inside 57% of the time last season, which is a number that could be even higher with a healthy Odell Beckham Jr. on the field in 2021. Landry will need to deal with tough showdowns with Chris Harris Jr., Bryce Callahan, Jonathan Jones, Marlon Humphrey (x2), Desmond King and Mike Hilton. This isn't ideal after Landry was limited to 32 targets in six full games with Beckham (5.3 per game) and was WR40 in fantasy last season.
Packers, Bengals and Eagles' wide receivers (Playoffs only)
Green Bay, Cincinnati and Philadelphia each check in with an easier-than-average CB schedule for the 2021 season, but all three have a much tougher outlook come playoff time. The Packers have the second-hardest slate during the three-week window, including the second-hardest for a No. 1 WR (Davante Adams) and third-hardest against the slot (Allen Lazard). The Eagles have the third-hardest playoff schedule, including the hardest for a No. 1 WR (DeVonta Smith). The Bengals' playoff slate is fourth-hardest overall and for a No. 1 WR (likely Ja'Marr Chase by that point) and fourth toughest against the slot (Tyler Boyd).
Adams is, of course, the biggest name here and his playoff schedule will include Baltimore, Cleveland and Minnesota. Assuming Aaron Rodgers plays, we don't need to overreact to this, but it's something to keep in mind. Note that Adams had the second-easiest projected schedule for a No. 1 WR last season and went on to score 29 more fantasy points than any other wideout despite missing two and a half games.
Full Season Strength Of Schedule Leaders and Losers
Easiest overall CB schedule
1. 49ers
2. Football Team
2. Vikings
Toughest overall CB schedule
1. Jets
2. Chargers
3. Raiders
3. Texans
Easiest schedule for No. 1 wide receivers
1. Vikings
2. 49ers
2. Rams
Toughest schedule for No. 1 wide receivers
1. Jets
2. Cowboys
3. Chargers
Easiest schedule for slot receivers
1. Buccaneers
2. Giants
Toughest schedule for slot receivers
1. Raiders
2. Chargers
Most potential shadow matchups
1. Panthers - 15
2. Buccaneers - 13
3. Saints - 12
3. Falcons - 12
3. Cowboys - 12
Fewest potential shadow matchups
1. Bengals - 1
2. Steelers - 2
3. Ravens - 3
Weeks 15-17 (Playoffs) Strength Of Schedule Leaders and Losers
Easiest overall CB schedule
1. Giants
2. Football Team
3. Lions
Toughest overall CB schedule
1. Raiders
2. Packers
3. Eagles
Easiest schedule for No. 1 wide receivers
1. Lions<
Toughest schedule for No. 1 wide receivers
1. Eagles
2. Packers
2. Raiders