With a lot of veteran wide receiver changing teams this offseason, let's look at the 2021 fantasy expectations for Julio Jones, Kenny Golladay, Will Fuller and more in their new landing spots.
Using player traits, offensive scheme fit and key numbers, along with Mike Clay's 2021 projections, here's how I see the fantasy value of 10 wide receivers who switched teams this year.
Julio Jones, Tennessee Titans
Clay's projections: 78 receptions (117 targets), 1,094 yards receiving, 7 TDs
Current ADP: WR14
At 32 years old, Jones has enough vertical juice to stretch defenses, and we know the Titans will scheme him up off play-action to throw crossers and in-breakers (see video above). Plus, there could be more red zone scoring upside for Jones this season with quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Since joining the Titans, a league-best 38.1% of Tannehill's red zone throws have resulted in touchdowns, via ESPN researcher Kyle Soppe. While we know he will work as the No.2 in Tennessee opposite of AJ Brown, in an offense that leans on the run game, Jones is still a solid target as a mid-tier WR2.
Kenny Golladay, New York Giants
Clay's projections: 70 receptions (119 targets), 1,070 yards receiving, 7 TDs
Current ADP: WR25
Golladay has all the traits of a No.1 wide receiver. We can look at his ability to separate vertically, the catch radius/body control or the matchup skills in the red zone. And while I'm not sold that Giants quarterback Daniel Jones is more than just a mid-to-low tier starter, his deep completion percentage did rise to 59.4% from 40.4% in his rookie season. That meshes with Golladay, who since entering the league in 2017, ranks ninth in fantasy points per deep target among the 53 qualified receivers (minimum 150 receptions). Even with a pretty crowded group of pass catchers in New York, Golladay should see enough volume, and red zone opportunities, to jump into the lower-tier WR2 mix this season.
Will Fuller V, Miami Dolphins
Clay's projections: 69 receptions (105 targets), 934 yards receiving, 5 TDs
Current ADP: WR36
Fuller will miss the first game of the season due to a suspension, and we know he's had injuries. But, when active and on the field, Fuller is a proven explosive play target who can lift the top of the secondary. Before his suspension last season, Fuller saw a career-high 26.4% of his receptions gain 20-plus yards. Scheme him, insolate him and take your shots. He can roll. With the expectation that Miami does become a much more aggressive throwing offense in quarterback Tua Tagovailoa's second pro season, Fuller has the traits to produce WR3 numbers, with more upside in Non-PPR formats due to his vertical stretch ability.
Curtis Samuel, Washington Football Team
Clay's projections: 74 receptions (107 targets), 874 yards receiving, 5 TDs; 21 carries, 119 yards rushing, 1 TD
Current ADP: WR40
Focus on the versatile traits with Samuel in an upgraded Washington offense that should be more explosive in the pass gamer with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. Think of Samuel as a middle-of-the-field stretch option who can also be schemed as a motion/movement target. Fly sweeps here, screens, backfield touches. During Samuel's 2019 season in Carolina -- with current Washington offensive coordinator Scott Turner -- the wide receiver saw 105 targets, with 19 rushing attempts. And he can produce from multiple alignments in matchup specific situations. He's a solid WR3 for me who can operate opposite of Terry McLaurin, and I see good value here given his current ADP.
Corey Davis, New York Jets
Clay's projections: 67 receptions (105 targets), 928 yards receiving, 4 TDs
Current ADP: WR48
With Davis, a physical route runner with enough juice to get loose after the catch, the scheme fit matches here under new Jets offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur; movement and misdirection that marries the run and pass game together. What does that lead to? Defined throwing windows for rookie quarterback Zach Wilson to target Davis, which also includes the scripted shot plays. Davis has yet to drop a deep ball in the league (99 targets), and he was targeted on a career-high 25.2% of routes run last season. Davis has the traits to produce in the Jets heavily schemed route tree, but with a rookie quarterback and competition for target volume, he checks-in as a Flex option.
Marvin Jones Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars
Clay's projections: 60 receptions (97 targets), 838 yards receiving, 5 TDs
Current ADP: WR50
Jones is a glider, a smooth technician in the route tree who can separate on deep crossers/overs and win red zone matchups. That's a positive for rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence on play-action throws (hit the in-breakers), plus he can be a viable target this season when the Jags have the ball in scoring position. From 2017-20, Jones is tied for seventh in touchdown receptions (19), and he has scored on over 70% of his red zone catches during that same time span. I would select Jones later in drafts as a possible Flex play. There is scoring upside here for a Jacksonville offense that should have to throw with volume this season.
Nelson Agholor, New England Patriots
Clay's projections: 53 receptions (88 targets), 811 yards receiving, 4 TDs
Current ADP: WR60
Agholor played with some juice in Vegas last season, posting career-highs in in yards (896), target rate (19.9% of routes) and air yards per target (15.4). We saw his vertical ability, plus the catch and run traits. In New England, Agholor will play in another heavily-schemed pass offense, but how much volume does he see on a weekly basis? Remember, the Patriots can be run-heavy at times, and the addition of tight ends Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith factor in here, too. I would draft Agholor late and stash him on the bench. He has value on bye weeks, plus we have to monitor the quarterback situation in New England this season also, as a shift to rookie Mac Jones could create more opportunity for Agholor on timing and rhythm throws.
AJ Green, Arizona Cardinals
Clay's projections: 55 receptions (98 targets), 683 yards receiving, 5 TDs
Current ADP: WR61
Green has the veteran traits, plus he is a very nuanced route runner. However, both age and injuries have lowered the fantasy floor on Green, and he averaged just 1.6 yards per route run in '20, the lowest of his career. The red zone opportunities should be limited with DeAndre Hopkins on the field, too, plus the Cards run-heavy approach when in scoring position limits his upside. So, is Green still worth a late round flier? Maybe. Now, that's not a move I'm going to make, but if Arizona can run more three and four wide receiver sets, Green has some value as a matchup-dependent option in deeper leagues.
John Brown, Las Vegas Raiders
Clay's projections: 46 receptions (79 targets), 637 yards receiving, 4 TDs
Current ADP: WR67
Brown shouldn't be drafted as a volume target, and he's going to carry more value in Non-PPR formats. However, as a late round flier, there's upside. In Jon Gruden's offense, Brown can be schemed as a vertical option or set up off play-action. The veteran wide receiver has averaged just under 15 yards per catch over the course of his career, with 20 of his 31 career touchdown receptions coming off deep passes. That's a fit with Raiders quarterback Derek Carr, in my opinion, who was much more willing to cut it loose on vertical throws last year. And for the Raiders to compete in the AFC West, they will have to create explosive plays in the pass game. Target Brown as a big play threat with WR3 upside in deeper leagues.
Breshad Perriman, Detroit Lions:
Clay's projections: 50 receptions (90 targets), 769 yards receiving, 4 TD; 4 carries, 22 yards rushing
Current ADP: WR69
With a chance to emerge as the No.1 wide receiver in Detroit, and being left undrafted in over 90% of early ESPN leagues, Perriman could be worth a pick in the late rounds due to his explosive ability in what should be a play-action heavy Lions' offense. Since 2018, Perriman has led all wide receivers (minimum 70 receptions) with 18.2 yards per catch. This is where you set up new quarterback Jared Goff to press the ball down the field off max protection. Throw the post, the deep corner, dig routes, more. If the volume is there, Perriman could be utilized as a flex/matchup dependent option in 12-14 team leagues.