On one hand, we've got a once-in-a-generation tight end prospect in Kyle Pitts.
Pitts managed an extraordinary 1,492 receiving yards and 18 touchdowns in his 32 games at the University of Florida, the former setting a school record for a tight end. He became the first tight end in 43 years to finish in the top 10 of the Heisman voting. Pitts became the highest-drafted tight end in the common draft era (1967 forward), when the Atlanta Falcons selected him fourth overall in the NFL draft, so it's no surprise that there is plenty of excitement surrounding him in fantasy leagues.
On the other hand, we've got that age-old theory that tight ends rarely meet or exceed their rookie-year expectations. It has long been said that the position has among the steepest learning curves at the NFL level, so rookie tight ends should be avoided in fantasy.
So which is it? Is Pitts that star-caliber, buck-the-trend performer fantasy managers need to aggressively draft, or is he just the next in a long line of soon-to-disappoint rookies? And just to be clear
Pitts' star-caliber skills are indisputable. A 6-foot-6, 240-pound prospect with an 83 3/8-inch wingspan -- the latter longer than that of any other receiver in the past 20 years per Pro Football Focus' records -- he has the frame of an elite, goal-line-monster tight end, yet with the speed of an elite wide receiver (4.44 40 time). There's a reason that, in advance of the draft, Mel Kiper Jr. called Pitts the best tight end prospect he's scouted, and comparisons to Calvin Johnson, who has two of the 20 best single-season PPR fantasy point totals among wide receivers in history and three 300-point campaigns on his résumé, were bandied about frequently.
That the Falcons invested the No. 4 overall pick on Pitts tells you plenty about their high regard for him, and all indications were that he was heavily involved in the passing game during the team's June minicamp. Also, the early-June trade of Julio Jones cleared 69 targets off the team's ledger, and accounting for the adds and drops in the team's receiving roster during the offseason, they've got 64 total vacated targets to be absorbed by Pitts and any of the team's other receiving options. Additionally, fellow tight end Hayden Hurst, now presumably second on their positional depth chart, had 90 targets in 2020 and might cede a good share of those to Pitts.
Consider the makeup of the team too: The Falcons totaled 610 targets last season and have ranged between 599 and 651 the past three seasons, averaging 591.3 in the past decade. They're a pass-first team, with good depth in the receiving game, including budding superstar wide receiver Calvin Ridley, a quality pass-catching running back in Mike Davis and a solid No. 2 wideout in Russell Gage. Pitts should provide a good complement to the team's other options, and there's little doubt that the receiving volume will be there for him to make a meaningful impact right away.
Still, history is strongly stacked against Pitts breaking any rookie records. Only five times in NFL history has a rookie tight end amassed 160 PPR fantasy points or more: Mike Ditka (233.6, 1961), Keith Jackson (200.9, 1988), Charle Young (184.8, 1973), Evan Engram (173.6, 2017) and Jeremy Shockey (171.4, 2002). That's significant, considering six tight ends managed at least 170 such points in 2020, though it's true that the bar for "elite" status at the position has risen in recent years. Taking this from a positional-finish approach, only 11 times has a rookie tight end finished among the top five at his position in PPR fantasy scoring, and of those 11, only three have occurred in the past 30 seasons: Engram finished fifth in 2017, Shockey third in 2002 and Cameron Cleeland third in 1998 (158.4 points).
Even approaching this from a usage, rather than fantasy production, standpoint, casts a gloomy picture for rookie tight ends. With 496 routes run, Engram is the only rookie tight end in the 14 seasons for which we have routes data to run at least 400, a threshold reached by 65 receivers overall and 11 tight ends last season alone. Shockey (122 targets), Engram (11), Cleeland (88) and Jermaine Gresham (82) are the only rookie tight ends in the 29 seasons for which we have target data to see at least 80, a threshold again reached by 65 receivers overall and 12 tight ends in 2020.
In those same 29 seasons for which we have target data, only Shockey (23.1% target share), Engram (18.7%), John Carlson (17.0%, 2008), Cleeland (17.0%), Zach Miller (15.5%, 2007), Tony Moeaki (15.2%, 2010) and Timothy Wright (15.2%, 2013) managed at least a 15% target share, which in a 600-target system means 90 targets.
Even if we take it from a caliber-of-prospect standpoint, the 15 tight ends who were selected among the first 10 picks of the NFL draft during the common draft era averaged only 64.8 PPR fantasy points, and prorating their overall production to a 16-game season, their number would still have been only 80.2. Among players widely regarded to be the best tight end prospects at the time of their draft selections, Kellen Winslow Jr. scored only 10.0 points in two games in 2004 (sixth overall selection), Vernon Davis totaled 63.0 in 10 games in 2006 (sixth overall), Eric Ebron managed 55.8 points in 13 games in 2014 (10th overall) and T.J. Hockenson tallied 80.7 in 12 games in 2019 (eighth overall). The argument that Pitts' skills exceed that of all of these prospects is valid, but the history of top-shelf tight end prospects supports the notion that there is, indeed, a steep positional learning curve to bear in mind.
Hurst's own usage in his first year in Atlanta provides encouraging projection points: He ran 506 routes, saw 90 targets and played 69% (743 of 1,077) of the Falcons' offensive snaps -- ranking third, tied for eighth and 12th, respectively, among tight ends. The Falcons' two other tight ends, Luke Stocker and Jaeden Graham, totaled 157 routes run, 16 targets and played 46% and 10% of the team's offensive snaps. It's conceivable that Pitts could slide directly into Hurst's role and Hurst into the Stocker/Graham supporting spot, though the previously mentioned vacated targets mean that a larger number could also come the tight end's way.
Hurst's presence, though, is an obstacle to Pitts' immediate greatness. The Falcons, under new coach Arthur Smith, the Tennessee Titans' former offensive coordinator, are sure to use two-tight end sets, something he did 513 times in 2020, second most in the league. Pitts and Hurst are considerably more talented tight ends than Smith's 2020 combination of Jonnu Smith and Anthony Firkser, but the team also brought in blocking specialist Lee Smith, who could cut slightly into either Pitts' or Hurst's snaps when the play dictates it. So long as Hurst remains on the roster, he's going to siphon off some of Pitts' targets, and that might be enough to rein the rookie in from challenging for the position's top spots in fantasy.
The upshot of all this is Pitts can and probably should be drafted as aggressively as any tight end in fantasy football history. Managers have actually been historically conservative drafting freshmen tight ends, with only Shockey (64th overall on average) and Bubba Franks (90th, 2000) going among the top 100 selections overall during the 20 seasons for which we have ESPN average draft position available (note that 2004, Winslow Jr.'s rookie year, is the one we don't have). Considering the high probability of Pitts matching Shockey's usage, matching that No. 64 overall ADP is entirely reasonable, but that's not always the asking price across all leagues.
For example, in NFFC (National Fantasy Football Championship) drafts since the 2021 NFL draft, Pitts' ADP is 55th overall, with a high pick of 17th overall. There's a point at which selecting him eliminates any chance of him being profitable. Considering all of the above factors, a top-50 overall pick is probably that threshold.
Pitts is a player I'd love to build around in a dynasty or keeper league -- but in a redraft league, early indications are that he'll be too pricey for my tastes.