Recently, we discussed which veterans saw their fantasy football value negatively affected by NFL draft happenings. What about the incoming rookie class?
This year's draft featured many intriguing talents, but not all of them landed in an ideal situation to flourish in their first season. Our ESPN Fantasy analysts lament some of these cases below.
In the next few months leading up to the start of the regular season, we will cover many key storylines like this. Check out our 2021 fantasy football rankings, which will be updated throughout the offseason. They serve as a great starting point as you prepare for fantasy draft season.
Which rookie are you most upset about his landing spot?
Stephania Bell: Travis Etienne, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
This opinion has nothing to do with the talent of Etienne. It has everything to do with the situation he finds himself in in Jacksonville. James Robinson exceeded all expectations in 2020 and his talent and productivity keep him well positioned for volume again this season. Veteran Carlos Hyde was acquired in March, as well. New head coach Urban Meyer suggested a third-down role for Etienne which feels ... strange. How exactly will this translate to fantasy value? Not the way we'd like, at least not initially.
Matthew Berry: Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins
Waddle is one of the most exciting and explosive playmakers to come into the league, but there are some concerns about his immediate fantasy value. Miami ran a fairly conservative offense last season under Tua Tagovailoa and while it has made moves to combat that this offseason, there are two concerns. First, the jury is still out on whether Tua can capitalize. And second, even if he can, is there enough volume for Waddle to have consistent fantasy value? With DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki back, plus the additions of Will Fuller V and Hunter Long, Tua has lots of other options to throw to. The Dolphins have a good defense and are unlikely to get into a lot of shootouts, so despite Waddle's talent, I fear consistent volume will be hard to come by.
Matt Bowen: Travis Etienne, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
With the north/south burst to attack the second level of the defense, and the receiving ability to impact the pass game from multiple alignments, Etienne has the traits of a dual-threat running back in today's NFL. However, with James Robinson and Carlos Hyde also in Jacksonville, Etienne's fantasy ceiling takes a hit.
Mike Clay: Rashod Bateman and Tylan Wallace, WR, Baltimore Ravens
Ravens' WRs have ranked last, last and 31st during Lamar Jackson's three seasons as Baltimore's starting QB. None of the team's draft selections during the span have produced a top-35 fantasy campaign, with Marquise Brown requiring a 25% target and 39% air-yard share just to scrape the WR3 radar last season. Bateman and Wallace (one of my favorite sleepers) join a run-heavy, low-volume offense that will also feed Brown, Sammy Watkins and Devin Duvernay at WR, as well as Mark Andrews and J.K. Dobbins. It will be hard for either rookie to produce in fantasy any time soon.
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Elijah Moore, WR, New York Jets
After we saw three of the 27 best rookie seasons by a wide receiver happen in 2020, that's a position I was watching entering the draft, and Moore was one of the prospects where the landing spot really mattered. He'll see plenty of time out of the slot for the Jets, but the problem is he's unlikely to serve as the team's No. 1 receiver, he'll have a rookie quarterback throwing him the ball and he's undersized with a skill set that might take some time to fully flourish in the NFL. Incidentally, only one rookie wide receiver this century scored 200-plus PPR fantasy points in a season in which a rookie quarterback started at least half his team's games: A.J. Green, in 2011.
Daniel Dopp: Kadarius Toney, WR, New York Giants
Why? The Giants already have a ton of young and dynamic playmakers on offense. Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton, Evan Engram, Saquon Barkley. I get that you can always add depth to a position, but for fantasy this one bummed me out a little bit. Toney's a human highlight reel, but Daniel Jones has only one football to throw around. At best, Toney will be behind Behind Saquon and Kenny Golladay, as the No. 3 option in this Giants offense, and Shepard is no slouch. Neither is Engram when he's healthy. Toney's a really talented kid who should still succeed, but this current Giants roster just doesn't do it for me when it comes to Toney's fantasy value.
Eric Karabell: Chuba Hubbard, RB, Carolina Panthers
I gleefully invested in Hubbard in a dynasty league after he rushed for more than 2,000 yards for Oklahoma State in 2019, but I would not have done so if I thought he would end up landing in Carolina behind Christian McCaffrey! OK, so McCaffrey played only three more games than we did in 2020, so perhaps it works out, but Hubbard, who was not much of a pass-catcher in college, now appears pretty avoidable not only in 2021 redraft formats, but also dynasty ones. Big sigh.
Field Yates: Travis Etienne, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Let me start by saying I'm thrilled for every player who achieved his NFL dream over the weekend, so "upset" is a relative term and strictly evaluated through the fantasy lens. Etienne is absolutely electric as a player, but he lands on a roster with an already excellent back in James Robinson and a veteran runner in Carlos Hyde, who I suspect will have a reasonable role, too. Perhaps Robinson's value takes the bigger hit, but if Etienne had landed in -- as an example -- Pittsburgh, we'd be discussing his value differently.