Mike Clay provides fantasy reaction and projections for every skill-position player taken on the first two days of the NFL draft. What type of impact will Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson and Mac Jones have as first-year quarterbacks? What about Trey Lance and Justin Fields? Did Najee Harris and Travis Etienne land in good spots to come up big in Year 1? And how will Ja'Marr Chase, DeVonta Smith and Kyle Pitts be positioned to perform as rookies? Get our take on all of their short- and long-term fantasy value including a first look at their 2021 projection.
Round 1 Recap
No. 1: QB Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Initial 2021 projection: 376 of 595, 4,265 yards, 23 TDs, 13 INTs; 68 carries, 305 yards, 3 TDs
No surprise here: Lawrence is the first overall pick of the 2021 NFL draft. The Clemson product will replace Gardner Minshew as Jacksonville's starter and will be under center Week 1. Lawrence is an athletic 6-foot-5, 213 pounds with an outstanding arm. His FBS passing efficiency stats don't jump off the page, but that shouldn't undermine his high-end potential, especially considering that his raw stats were incredible (90 TDs, 17 INTs in 40 games). Adding to Lawrence's appeal is his mobility, as he ran for 776 yards and 17 TDs over the past two seasons. Rookie QBs are rarely reliable fantasy starters, but Lawrence's mobility and a good group of weapons led by DJ Chark, Laviska Shenault Jr., Marvin Jones Jr. and James Robinson gives him a shot to be an exception. He's worth a late-round flier in season-long leagues, though his primary value is as a high-ceiling dynasty hold.
No. 2: QB Zach Wilson, New York Jets
Initial 2021 projection: 339 of 541, 3,912 yards, 20 TDs, 13 INTs; 59 carries, 265 yards, 3 TDs
We're two picks in without out any surprises, as the Jets have officially swapped out Sam Darnold for Wilson. Though undersized (6-foot-2, 214 pounds), Wilson checks a lot of boxes, sporting terrific arm strength and accuracy, as well as mobility. The BYU product's collegiate efficiency was elite, as his completion rate (74%) and INT rate (0.9%) were both near the top of the class despite a gunslinger mentality that led to him pushing the ball down field at one of the highest rates (10.2 average depth of throw). Wilson scored 43 TDs (10 rushing) and threw three INTs in 2020. Wilson will start in Week 1 barring disaster, but he is a long shot for immediate fantasy contributions in a rebuilding Jets' offense that finished last in TDs last season. Consider him with a late pick in deeper leagues.
No. 3: QB Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers
Initial 2021 projection: 216 of 338, 2,448 yards, 15 TDs, 9 INTs; 71 carries, 365 yards, 4 TDs
After weeks of speculation that Mac Jones would be the 49ers' pick at third overall, it is instead Lance who is headed to the Bay Area. Like Carson Wentz, Lance played at FCS North Dakota State. He has a solid frame at 6-foot-4, 224 pounds and his best assets are his huge arm and rushing ability. N.D. State didn't play in 2020 because of COVID-19, but Lance threw for 2,789 yards (9.7 YPA) and ran for 1,110 (6.5 YPC) in 16 games in 2019. Lance's shaky accuracy and a severe lack of experience (one full season as starter, 17.9 pass attempts per game) are concern areas, but his combination of size, arm talent and rushing ability supplies plenty of upside. He's in a good spot long term with the 49ers with Kyle Shanahan calling the shots and with a strong supporting cast led by Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and a good line. Lance's legs will make him worth a late-round selection if the 49ers trade Jimmy Garoppolo. Otherwise, he'll likely take over as starter at some point during 2021.
No. 4: TE Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
Initial 2021 projection: 98 targets, 64 receptions, 753 yards, 5 TDs
Matt Ryan has himself a new target. Pitts is one of the best TE prospects in league history, as he sports an elite combination of height (6-foot-6) and ball skills to go along with terrific speed (4.44-second 40-yard dash), hands and separation ability. Oh, and he's only 20 years old. The Florida product is on the thin side (245 pounds) and a work in progress as a blocker, but that won't slow his elite upside as a pass-catcher. In 2020, Pitts posted a 12.8 aDOT (highest in this class), 3.4 YPRR (highest), handled 29% of the team's air yards (second highest) and didn't drop any of his 66 targets. He'll step in as Atlanta's No. 3 target and could perhaps jump to second if Julio Jones is traded. Yes, rookie TEs are rarely fantasy-relevant, but if anyone can be the exception, it's Pitts. Consider him a back-end TE1 in 2021.
No. 5: WR Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals
Initial 2021 projection: 116 targets, 71 receptions, 899 yards, 5 TDs
A.J. Green is out and Chase is in as the Bengals' No. 1 long-term WR. The LSU product is a versatile and physical 6-foot, 201-pound wideout with a laundry list of assets, including good strength, speed, hands, as well as ball-tracking and tackle-breaking ability. He opted out of the 2020 season, but he's only 21 years old and broke out at the young age of 19. The Bengals had a third WR on the field on the field on 82% of their offensive plays in 2020 (2nd highest in NFL), so WR was a need despite the presence of Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins on the roster. Also, consider that since 2009, six WRs have been picked Top 6 in the draft and all six averaged a 19%+ target share as a rookie. Five of the six appeared in 13+ games and those five were all top-30 fantasy WRs. Chase will play a near every-down role right out of the gate and should be considered an immediate flex option.
No. 6: WR Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins
Initial 2021 projection: 96 targets, 58 receptions, 741 yards, 4 TDs
Miami continued its WR overhaul by adding Waddle to the mix. The Alabama star is arguably the most explosive WR this year's class, as he sports elite speed, athleticism and playmaking ability. He's on the small side (5-foot-10, 182 pounds) and totaled only 131 targets in three seasons with the Crimson Tide, but his collegiate efficiency is hard to beat, as his 15.3 YPT, 3.7 YPRR, 10.0 RAC and 81% catch rate during that span are all best in this year's rookie class. Waddle has the ability to play inside or out (he aligned in the slot 71% of the time at Alabama) and figures to begin his career inside with Will Fuller V and DeVante Parker on the perimeter. Waddle might be limited for targets a bit early on (Mike Gesicki is also in the mix), but note that Fuller is suspended for Week 1 and Parker's name has been floated as a potential trade candidate, so this is a situation to monitor. Regardless, Waddle has big-time long-term upside and can be viewed as a WR4/5 in season-long leagues.
No. 10: WR DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles
Initial 2021 projection: 103 targets, 58 receptions, 781 yards, 4 TDs
For the first time in over 15 years, a team has selected a WR in back-to-back first rounds. The Eagles traded up (with Dallas of all teams) to select Smith. The reigning Heisman Trophy winner, Smith put up 1,856 yards and 23 TDs during his dominant 2020 campaign. The big knock on the Alabama star is obvious: size. He is extremely skinny at 6-foot-1, 175 pounds, which raises concerns about strength and durability, but his ball skills are unmatched in this class and he has the versatility, speed, quickness, separation ability, route-running prowess and hands (six drops on 298 targets over the past three seasons) to emerge into a high-volume, elite NFL wide receiver. Smith joins Jalen Reagor as the Eagles clear-cut top-two WRs and their next closest competition for touches is Dallas Goedert, Miles Sanders and, if he's not traded, Zach Ertz. It's yet to be seen if Jalen Hurts will develop into a capable NFL starter, but we at least know Smith will be a full-timer out of the gate. He's a strong selection for your bench in season-long drafts and has WR1 upside in dynasty.
No. 11: QB Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
Initial 2021 projection: 294 of 463, 3,172 yards, 18 TDs, 11 INTs; 90 carries, 464 yards, 4 TDs (14 starts)
Chicago moved on from Mitchell Trubisky during the offseason and he'll be replaced by Fields as the team's franchise QB. The Ohio State product checks in at 6-foot-3, 227 pounds with outstanding accuracy, a good arm and high-end rushing ability. The latter really sets him apart, as he posted an 81-383-5 rushing line in 2020 while pacing this year's rookie QB class in YPC (4.7) and both 5-plus (65%) and 10-plus (28%) runs. Fields has also shown to be an aggressive and effective passer. His 10.3 average depth of throw and 91 total QBR are both tops in this class over the past three and he protected the ball well (1.5% INT rate). It's possible Andy Dalton will get a few starts, but history suggests Fields will be under center very quickly - very likely in September or early October. His elite rushing ability, powered by 4.45 wheels, could quickly launch him into fantasy relevance, so monitor his progress leading up to drafts.
No. 15: QB Mac Jones, New England Patriots
Initial 2021 projection: 137 of 219, 1,511 yards, 9 TDs, 6 INTs; 23 carries, 66 yards, 1 TD (7 starts)
The Patriots did not need to trade up in order to land one of the "Big 5" QBs in this year's rookie class. Jones is fresh off an elite 2020 campaign in which he completed 77% of 402 pass attempts and posted an 11.1 YPA and 96 total QBR (all were best in this year's class). Oh, and he threw 41 TDs to go along with four INTs. The 6-foot-3, 217-pound Alabama product is super poised and accurate, but arm strength and a lack of mobility (35 carries, 14 yards in 2020) are concerns. The latter is going to be extremely detrimental to Jones' fantasy appeal both short and long term. Cam Newton remains the favorite to start in Week 1, but considering Jordan Love is the only first-round rookie who hasn't played over the past decade, it's likely Jones will make some starts this season. Of course, even if he does start, he'll be no more than a back-end QB2. Jones isn't a super-appealing dynasty asset and shouldn't be drafted in season-long leagues.
No. 20: WR Kadarius Toney, New York Giants
Initial 2021 projection: 74 targets, 46 receptions, 559 yards, 3 TDs
The Giants already added Kenny Golladay and John Ross at wide receiver this offseason, but weren't done there, adding Toney with this year's first-round pick. The Florida product is a 5-foot-11, 193-pound slot receiver oft utilized in a gadget role with the Gators. His 6.7 aDOT since 2018 is one of the lowest in this year's class, and his overall volume was limited by suspension and multiple injuries. He did, however, catch a class-high 90% of his catchable targets and posted a strong 8.5 RAC during that span. Toney's quickness and RAC jump off the page, and he has the physical tools, explosiveness and hands to emerge into a star in the pros. Toney figures to get some run as a rusher and returner. He does have a bit of a crowded path to rookie-season targets, however, with Golladay, Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton perhaps initially ahead at WR, and Evan Engram, Kyle Rudolph and Saquon Barkley also ticketed for work. Toney is a logical late-round flier and bench stash.
No. 24: RB Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers
Initial 2021 projection: 223 carries, 964 yards, 7 TDs; 67 targets, 50 receptions, 372 yards, 1 TD
James Conner is out and Harris is in as the Steelers' feature back. Standout RB prospects from Alabama are nothing new, but Harris is a bit of a unicorn in that he's huge (6-foot-2, 230 pounds) and an outstanding receiver with a large catch radius (43-425-4 receiving line in 2020). Absurdly elusive for his size, Harris' 3.1 forced missed tackle rate is third best in this year's class during the past three seasons. Harris is severely lacking speed, but his combination of size, strength, tackle breaking, elusiveness and receiving ability supplies him with a high ceiling. With Benny Snell and Anthony McFarland his top competition, Harris will immediately slot in as the lead back in Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh's offensive line isn't as good as in year's past, but volume is king and Harris could push for 20 touches as soon as Week 1. He's immediately a mid-range RB2 and sports RB1 upside.
No. 25: RB Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars
Initial 2021 projection: 153 carries, 657 yards, 4 TDs; 73 targets, 53 receptions, 413 yards, 1 TD
The Jaguars hit the lottery with James Robinson as a gem UDFA find last season, but apparently he's not what new coach Urban Meyer is looking for in a lead back, as the Jaguars spend their second first round pick on Etienne. The Clemson product is arguably the most explosive back in this year's class and also brings speed and strong pass-catching ability to the table. He stands 5-foot-10, 215 pounds and was extremely productive during four years at Clemson, racking up 6,107 yards and 78 TDs on 788 touches. That includes 85 receptions over the past two seasons, which is most in this year's class. Etienne's elusiveness jumps off the page, as his 4.1 YAC ranks third and his 3.3 Forced Missed Tackle rate ranks sixth in this year's class over the past three seasons. Robinson won't go away completely, which figures to limit Etienne's short-term value, but a 150-carry, 50-catch season would be enough to keep him in the PPR flex mix. Robinson, by the way, takes a pretty sizable hit here and drops from fantasy's RB7 as a rookie way down to fringe flex territory in 2021.
No. 27: WR Rashod Bateman, Baltimore Ravens
Initial 2021 projection: 64 targets, 40 receptions, 506 yards, 4 TDs
As expected, Baltimore snagged a WR with one of its two first round picks. Bateman has decent size at 6-foot-1, 210 pounds and projects as a perimeter/X receiver in the pros. The Minnesota product checks a lot of boxes, as a physical receiver with good route running (including a diverse route tree), speed (reportedly ran a 4.39 40), post-catch ability and tackle-breaking prowess. A high-volume target and vertical threat, Bateman handled a prospect-high 43% of his team's air yards in 2020 (albeit in only five games) and a 32% target share over the past three seasons. Volume figures to elude him in Baltimore, however, as the Lamar Jackson-led offense leans heavily on the run and he'll also need to fend off Marquise Brown, Mark Andrews and perhaps Sammy Watkins for targets. This is not an ideal short-term landing spot, so Bateman is no more than a late-round flier in season-long leagues and an uninspiring pick in rookie drafts.
Round 2 Recap
No. 34: WR Elijah Moore, New York Jets
Initial 2021 projection: 88 targets, 56 receptions, 674 yards, 3 TDs
The Jets' new regime is overhauling at wide receiver and that continued with the selection of Moore on Friday night. The Ole Miss product is an athletic 5-foot-9, 185-pound slot receiver with good speed and quickness. He has reliable hands and post-catch tackle breaking ability but can also get deep for a big play. His size may limit his ability to play outside and beat press, but he has the look of a high-volume slot target who can help out as a rusher and returner. He aligned inside 92% of the time and handled a healthy 27% target share while posting a 91% adjusted catch rate during his final three FBS seasons. Assuming New York now moves on from Jamison Crowder, Moore will be ticketed for slot duties as a rookie, with Corey Davis and Denzel Mims outside and Keelan Cole in the mix for situational work. Moore is a terrific late-round flier in season-long drafts.
No. 35: RB Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos
Initial 2021 projection: 179 carries, 770 yards, 4 TDs; 33 targets, 25 receptions, 181 yards, 1 TD
The Broncos traded up and selected Williams with the third pick of the second round. The North Carolina product's calling card is elite tackle breaking and elusiveness. Williams has the second-best YAC (4.1) and forced missed tackle rates (3.0) in this year's class over the past three seasons and was top-two in both categories in 2020. Williams has good size (5-foot-10, 212 pounds) and is an aggressive and explosive rusher with respectable receiving production (his 25 catches in 2020 were third-most in this class). Williams is one of the youngest backs in this class (21), but will immediately step into a consistent role next to starter Melvin Gordon. Fantasy value may not be there early on, but Williams figures to progressively take on more work as the season progresses. He'll be worth of a mid-round pick in season-long leagues and has RB1 upside in dynasty.
No. 49: WR Rondale Moore, Arizona Cardinals
Initial 2021 projection: 52 targets, 34 receptions, 408 yards, 2 TDs
The Purdue product is a 5-foot-7, 180-pound short-area slot receiver. He led the nation with 114 receptions as a true freshman in 2018 before combining to play eight games due to injury and a COVID-related opt out over the past two seasons. Moore aligned in the slot 88% of the time during his time at Purdue, and his 5.2 aDOT and 11.0 YPR are lowest in this class during that span. Moore is a solid route runner with good ball skills, and he is electric with the ball in his hands (reported 4.28 40). Expect Moore to find his way to a slot/rusher/returner role in the pros and he'll likely be used in a variety of ways right out of the gate, as he joins a depth chart that includes DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Green and Christian Kirk. Moore is a longshot for early-career fantasy relevance, but makes for a fine dynasty asset as an eventual full-timer in Arizona's Kyler Murray-led and WR-friendly offense.
No. 55: TE Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers
Initial 2021 projection: 20 targets, 14 receptions, 145 yards, 1 TD
The Steelers added yet another offensive weapon by grabbing Freiermuth in the second round. The Penn State product is a big, strong and athletic 6-foot-5, 258-pound TE who can help as a blocker and receiver. Granted it was only four games, but he handled a massive 29% target share (30% air yard share) in 2020. Freiermuth isn't especially fast or agile and his hands are inconsistent, but he's good with the ball in his hands has the skills to eventually push for TE1 numbers. Of course, there's a learning curve for rookie TEs and, at least in 2021, he's positioned as Pittsburgh's replacement for the retired Vance McDonald as a secondary option behind Eric Ebron. Freiermuth has little to no short-term fantasy value and is worth stashing in dynasty leagues only.
No. 56: WR D'Wayne Eskridge, Seattle Seahawks
Initial 2021 projection: 43 targets, 27 receptions, 321 yards, 2 TDs
Seattle went wide receiver with their first pick of the draft, adding Eskridge to the fold. The Western Michigan product is undersized (5-foot-9, 188 pounds), but the former track star brings elite speed to the table. His wheels, combined with good post-catch production, led him to some impressive numbers at Western Michigan. Over the past three seasons, Eskridge's 21.8 YPR ranks first and his 3.6 YPRR and 9.6 RAC rank second in this year's rookie class. Despite the strong efficiency, Eskridge ran a limited route tree and his route running, ball skills, physicality, production in contested situations, size and age (24) are all concern areas. The No. 3 WR gig in Seattle is wide open behind stars DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, but that position hasn't been particularly productive in fantasy in recent years. Likely to work as a situational deep threat and returner, Eskridge is worth no more than a late-round pick in season-long fantasy leagues.
No. 57: WR Tutu Atwell, Los Angeles Rams
Initial 2021 projection: 31 targets, 19 receptions, 251 yards, 1 TD
The Rams drafted Van Jefferson in the second round of the 2020 draft and now added Atwell in Round 2 of this year's draft. The Louisville product is one of the tiniest players in this year's rookie class at 5-foot-9, 155 pounds. He's a terrific athlete with outstanding game speed, explosiveness, elusiveness and big-play ability, but he isn't going to handle traffic or contested situations very well. Atwell is primarily a slot target (92% over the past three seasons) and figures to be used as a situational screen/gadget and vertical home-run target in the pros. He may have trouble finding his way to consistent snaps and targets in 2021 with Jefferson, Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp and DeSean Jackson also in the fold. He's no more than a late flier in season-long drafts, but a solid dynasty hold as a potential regular in Sean McVay's highly productive scheme.
No. 59: WR Terrace Marshall Jr., Carolina Panthers
Initial 2021 projection: 69 targets, 42 receptions, 518 yards, 3 TDs
Carolina lost Curtis Samuel to free agency during the offseason, but replaced him on Friday by selecting Marshall in the second round. The LSU star is tall (6-foot-3, 205 pounds) and young (21 years old) with good speed and a large catch radius. He is terrific in contested situations and a threat with the ball in his hands, though his target share was lower than you'd expect for a top prospect (14% during his final three seasons and 25% in 2020 prior to opting out). Mitchell has experience inside and out, though he aligned in the slot 83% of the time in 2020. That's notable as Robby Anderson and DJ Moore primarily worked on the perimeter last season with Samuel in the slot. Expect Marshall to step right in as the No. 3 WR in an offense that supported three top-25 fantasy WRs in 2020. If Sam Darnold plays solid ball, Marshall could sneak into fantasy relevance. Grab him with a late pick.
No. 64: QB Kyle Trask, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Initial 2021 projection: 26 of 44, 305 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Remember how the Patriots would often spend mid-round picks on developmental QBs behind Tom Brady? Well, the Buccaneers followed suit with the final pick of the second round of Friday's draft. Trask is a big quarterback at 6-foot-5, 236 pounds and is also one of the older (23) prospects in this year's QB class. Trask improved throughout his time at Florida and has a solid arm, but his accuracy has been inconsistent and he benefited from a terrific supporting cast. Trask did pace this year's QB class in pass TDs in 2020 (43) and his efficiency numbers were solid, but his lack of mobility will be problematic for his fantasy outlook (54 rushing yards during two full seasons). Trask won't see the field as long as Tom Brady is healthy and may not even be the No. 2 in 2021 with Ryan Griffin in the mix. Trask should be drafted in dynasty leagues only.
Round 3 Recap
No. 66: QB Kellen Mond, Minnesota Vikings
Initial 2021 projection: 15 of 26, 172 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
Minnesota has itself a potential backup for Kirk Cousins after selecting Mond in the third round. Mond enters the pros with four years of starting experience. He's a dual threat QB who thrived in a zone read environment with Texas A&M. Mond throws well on the move and, while his accuracy and arm talent are serviceable, his throws downfield are erratic. Granted he was pressured a ton, but he threw 20-plus yards down field a class-low 10% of the time over the past three seasons and his efficiency numbers were shaky at best. Mond's legs (349-1268-19 rushing line from 2018-20) could eventually get him to the fantasy radar, but he'll first need to improve as a passer. He's way off the fantasy radar as long as Cousins is healthy.
No. 67: QB Davis Mills, Houston Texans
Initial 2021 projection: 7 of 11, 82 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs
With Deshaun Watson's future unknown, the Texans selected Mills in the third round. Mills may not quite stack up with this year's top QB prospects, but he some interesting sleeper appeal. The Stanford product has pedigree (he was the consensus top QB out of high school in 2017) and excellent size (6-foot-4, 222 pounds) to go along with good accuracy and a strong arm. The problem? A lack of experience. Mills made a grand total of 11 starts during four seasons with the Cardinal, tossing 18 TDs and 8 INTs on 438 attempts while adding little with his legs. He's obviously raw and will need time to develop and improve his decision making. That will be possible in Houston, as even if Watson is out, Tyrod Taylor will handle starting duties. Mills is only worth a roster spot in dynasty.
No. 77: WR Josh Palmer, Los Angeles Chargers
Initial 2021 projection: 37 targets, 23 receptions, 274 yards, 2 TDs
The Chargers added WR depth in the third round by grabbing Palmer. The Tennessee product is a 6-foot-2, 210-pound receiver who lived on hook and vert routes (55% of his tree) and saw a lot of deep targets (16.0 aDOT) during the past three seasons at Tennessee. Palmer had to deal with shaky quarterback play (31% of targets were uncatchable), but did well to overcome that with reliable hands (four drops on 163 targets). Palmer has good size and ball skills and shows well in contested situations, but will need to generate more separation in the pros. He's not a threat to Keenan Allen or Mike Williams in the short term, but could overtake Jalen Guyton and Tyron Johnson for No. 3 duties very quickly. That would make him a fantasy sleeper considering how good Justin Herbert looked as a rookie. Palmer will be a fine later flier in deeper leagues.
No. 81: TE Hunter Long, Miami Dolphins
Initial 2021 projection: 12 targets, 8 receptions, 74 yards, 0 TD
If you like heavy usage and outstanding production, Long is your guy. The Boston College product posted a 2.3 YPRR at BC, which trails only Kyle Pitts for best in this year's class. He was featured in 2020, managing a massive 24% target share (22% of air yards). Long is 6-foot-5, 253 pounds with decent speed and hands, and projects as an in-line, pass-catching TE. Long is one of the oldest tight ends in this year's class and won't see consistent targets anytime soon with Miami stacked at WR and with Mike Gesicki locked in atop the TE depth chart. He's only worth stashing in deep dynasty leagues.
No. 82: WR Dyami Brown, Washington Football Team
Initial 2021 projection: 30 targets, 18 receptions, 234 yards, 1 TD
Washington continued its wide receiver overhaul behind Terry McLaurin by selecting Brown in the third round. The North Carolina product is a thin (6-foot-1, 189 pounds) perimeter target. His game is the deep ball, as his 16.3 aDOT over the past three seasons is one of the highest in this year's class. Brown is tough and decent route-runner and ball-tracker, but he lacks agility and has had serious drop issues (8.3% since 2018). Brown's route tree was very limited (vertical, hook and shallow routes have been 77% of his game over the past three seasons), but he'll have time to learn the ropes behind McLaurin, Curtis Samuel and Adam Humphries in Washington. Brown's primary value is in dynasty, but keep an eye on his snap counts throughout the 2021 season.
No. 83: TE Tommy Tremble, Carolina Panthers
Initial 2021 projection: 6 targets, 4 receptions, 39 yards, 0 TD Tremble is a 6-foot-4, 248-pound blocking tight end who could get run as a fullback in the pros. He has decent wheels and is good athlete who could hit with the occasional explosive play, but isn't super agile and simply wasn't much of a factor as a pass catcher at Notre Dame. Tremble's receiving efficiency numbers are weak, as despite a class-high 87% of balls thrown his way qualifying as "on target", he posted a class-low 76% catch rate and a class-high 11% drop rate (albeit on 53 targets) during 2019-20. There's perhaps some potential for improvement as a receiver, but blocking figures to be his primary gig in the pros. He'll start out behind Dan Arnold and Ian Thomas and has little to no fantasy appeal.
No. 85: WR Amari Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
Initial 2021 projection: 35 targets, 22 receptions, 264 yards, 2 TDs; 8 carries, 49 yards
The Packers finally added an impact WR prospect behind Davante Adams ... or did they? Rodgers is a 5-foot-9, 210-pound receiver/rusher/punt returner. Built like a back, Rodgers is not coincidentally very good after the catch and a quality tackle breaker. He has good speed, strength and hands, but his lack of length hurts his separation ability and could limit him to slot duties (or perhaps even a conversion to RB) in the pros. Rodgers' 6.4 aDOT over the past three seasons is second-lowest in this class and he handled only 15% of the targets and 11% of the air yards in Clemson's offense. He'll look to carve out a slot/punt returner role and could work his way into a consistent rookie-season role if he finds his way past the likes of Allen Lazard, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Devin Funchess. Of course, that assumes he plays WR and not RB. Keep an eye on his progress.
No. 88: RB Trey Sermon, San Francisco 49ers
Initial 2021 projection: 110 carries, 461 yards, 3 TDs; 26 targets, 19 receptions, 147 yards, 1 TD
Kyle Shanahan loves his backfield committees and he added to his 2021 unit on Friday with Sermon. The Ohio State standout is a big (6-foot, 215 pounds) and explosive runner who racked up 455 carries during three seasons at Oklahoma and one at OSU. Sermon sports a good elusiveness profile (top-10 in this class in both YAC and Forced Missed Tackle rate over the past three seasons), but lacks speed and his potential passing-game contributions are a question mark (he totaled 48 receptions and caught a weak 79% of his targets from 2018-20). Sermon has a shot to eventually emerge as the 49ers' lead back, but Raheem Mostert (not to mention Jeff Wilson and Wayne Gallman) remains in that spot for 2021. Sermon will be a terrific bench stash considering Mostert's durability woes and this is a good landing spot from a dynasty standpoint.
No. 89: WR Nico Collins, Houston Texans Initial
2021 projection: 58 targets, 36 receptions, 445 yards, 3 TDs
Houston spent a third-round pick on Collins with the hope that he can help replace Will Fuller. The Michigan product is one of the biggest receivers in this year's class at 6-foot-4, 215 pounds. He has good speed and hands to go with his huge frame, but separation, route running and RAC are concern areas. Prior to opting out in 2020, Collins was targeted often downfield but also lived on the shallow route, which he ran a class-high 25% of the time during 2018-19. Brandin Cooks is the top WR in Houston, but with Randall Cobb in the slot, the team's No. 2 perimeter gig is wide open. If Collins shows well and beats out Chris Conley, he could sneak onto the fantasy radar. He's a solid dynasty hold and name to monitor in season-long leagues.
No. 91: WR Anthony Schwartz, Cleveland Browns
Initial 2021 projection: 10 targets, 6 receptions, 80 yards, 1 TD
Speed is the name of the game for 6-foot, 179-pound Schwartz, though the former track star lived on short-area work at Auburn over the past three seasons. He posted a very low 7.9 aDOT and very high 8.7 RAC while running a ton of screen and out routes (33% of his three). He also chipped in as a rusher (42 carries). Schwartz's speed and agility are attractive, though he's still a raw receiver, needing to improve his ball skills, route running, physicality and hands (8.0% drop rate). Schwartz didn't have the best QB play at Auburn and is one of the youngest players (21) in this year's class, so he's far from a finished product. He won't be rushed along in a Cleveland offense that has Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry and Rashard Higgins at wide receiver and that leans heavily on multiple TE and RB sets. Schwartz's value is in dynasty.
No. 97: TE Tre' McKitty, Los Angeles Chargers
McKitty is a 6-foot-4, 244-pound tight end with decent wheels, athleticism and blocking ability. He lacks much pass-catching experience and was mostly limited to short-area targets at Florida State and Georgia. His 6.2 career aDOT is lowest in this class and his 9% target share, 6% air yards share, 6.9 YPT and 1.2 YPRR are all near the bottom as well. McKitty totaled 49 receptions in two full seasons at FSU and was limited to six catches in four games at Georgia in 2020. He'll develop behind 34-year-old Jared Cook, Donald Parham and Stephen Anderson this season and is well off the fantasy radar.