Getting value in trades isn't entirely about finding players whose skills are on an upward trend. Sometimes, the schedule itself can help identify trade candidates, as the matchups, quite often, prove to be the difference during the fantasy football stretch run.
Using the same data that I publish in my weekly Matchups Map column, what follows presents a "strength of schedule," if you will, for each of the four skill positions.
To briefly explain the methodology, the Matchups Map presents a schedule-independent way of analyzing matchups, comparing players' seasonal averages to their outputs against specific defenses, in order to determine which matchups are the best and worst each week. A plus-3 would mean that the defense, on average, boosts the opponent's PPR fantasy point total by three points, while a minus-3 would mean that it suppresses the scoring by three points.
The "strength of schedule" ratings below total all teams' remaining matchups (Weeks 10-17). This means that a team listed with 15.0 PPR fantasy points added should expect to see its players at that position -- and be aware that it's all players at that position; meaning that if for wide receivers, it's for the team's collective group -- score 15 more points than it would have while facing a league-average schedule. I've also listed the number of "elite" and "tough" matchups the team has remaining.
For each position, there's a recommended trade target, as well as one you should be trying to trade away.
Quarterbacks
Trade for: Tom Brady
Coming off a 2.4-fantasy-point disaster and with his bye week still ahead of him (Week 13) -- it's more damning when the bye week encompasses one-eighth of a player's remaining schedule -- Brady might never be more attainable on the trade market than he is right now.
He has a barrage of receivers at his disposal, including the recently signed Antonio Brown, and through nine games, he has shown a tendency to play to his matchups. Here's why that matters: Brady has both of his games against the Atlanta Falcons in the season's final three weeks, and he also has plus matchups against the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions during the fantasy playoffs. If you can squeak into your league's playoffs without him in Week 13, most leagues' regular-season finale, he might yet propel you to a title.
Most favorable remaining schedules for a QB (Weeks 10-17): New Orleans Saints (13.4 PPR fantasy points added, 4 "elite" matchups remaining), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12.1, 4), New York Giants (12.0, 4), Seattle Seahawks (9.7, 2), Los Angeles Rams (9.6, 4), Dallas Cowboys (9.3, 2), Washington Football Team (8.1, 4).
Most favorable fantasy-playoffs schedules for a QB (Weeks 14-17): Buccaneers (11.1 fantasy points added, 3 "tough" matchups remaining), Cowboys (10.6, 2), Saints (8.7, 2), Football Team (8.4, 2), San Francisco 49ers (7.4, 2), Los Angeles Chargers (6.6, 3), Arizona Cardinals (6.1, 1).
Trade away: Josh Allen
Use his 36.0 point season-best Week 9 performance, or the fact that he has a second consecutive dream matchup facing him this Sunday (@ARI), as your sales pitch, because there's no better time to cash in Allen's chip. He has his bye ahead of him (Week 11) and four below-average-or-worse matchups (PIT, @DEN, @NE, MIA) facing him during the fantasy postseason.
Allen has been more inconsistent this season than you might expect, especially his performance on vertical throws, and he's going to need to be sharp with those offerings if he's to be a fantasy championship-caliber option facing this schedule.
Least favorable remaining schedules for a QB: Vikings (minus-14.0, 4 "tough" matchups), Cincinnati Bengals (minus-12.8, 4), Jacksonville Jaguars (minus-12.4, 4), Buffalo Bills (minus-10.1, 4), Carolina Panthers (minus-8.5, 4).
Least favorable fantasy-playoffs schedules for a QB: Bills (minus-14.8, 4), Panthers (minus-8.9, 3), Vikings (minus-8.1, 3), Cleveland Browns (minus-7.7, 2), New England Patriots (minus-6.6, 1).
Running backs
Trade for: Derrick Henry
It doesn't matter that he's a locked-in RB1. So long as the price is remotely reasonable, pay it. Henry's fantasy playoffs schedule is a dream (@JAX, DET, @GB, @HOU), with the latter three universally considered the three most favorable matchups a running back could ask in 2020.
What's more, he has a history of late-season dominance, having averaged 25.3 PPR fantasy points per game for Weeks 14-17 of 2018-19, that the second-best rate of anyone in the NFL (Christian McCaffrey, 25.8), not to mention the 467 additional yards from scrimmage he totaled on 88 total touches in his three playoff games last season. Henry tends to save his best for last, year after year, and he's a good bet to be this year's leading fantasy-playoff scorer with the schedule he has ahead of him.
Most favorable remaining schedules for a RB: Chicago Bears (24.9, 4), Indianapolis Colts (23.2, 5), Miami Dolphins (18.9, 3), Baltimore Ravens (14.6, 3).
Most favorable fantasy playoffs schedules for a RB: Tennessee Titans (20.8, 3), Bears (12.3, 2), Dolphins (12.2, 2), Denver Broncos (10.6, 2), Lions (6.4, 2), Green Bay Packers (6.2, 2).
Trade away: Todd Gurley II
It might feel like a layup, and it's hardly the first time I've suggested you trade him away. But if you look at the metrics, which includes eight of nine weeks during which he has earned your start (an RB6 PPR fantasy point total and RB16 points-per-game rate), there are probably still people out there who do see him as a locked-in RB2.
He's on his bye week now (always a difficult time to peddle a player), but what I see are the four miserable matchups he has down the stretch. The Buccaneers (Weeks 15 and 17) and Saints (Weeks 11 and 13) have been the two toughest defenses against the position using full-season data. I'm not a fan of either player, but given the choice, I'd rather have David Montgomery and his favorable remaining schedule over Gurley and his brutal schedule.
Least favorable remaining schedules for a RB: Giants (minus-17.9, 3), Seahawks (minus-14.6, 4), Falcons (minus-12.8, 4), 49ers (minus-11.2, 3), Kansas City Chiefs (minus-10.7, 4), Cowboys (minus-10.2, 2), Bengals (minus-9.1, 2), Saints (minus-8.7, 3), Jaguars (minus-8.5, 2), Vikings (minus-8.3, 4), Buccaneers (minus-8.1, 3).
Least favorable fantasy playoffs schedules for a RB: Giants (minus-14.1, 2), Jaguars (minus-13.0, 3), Philadelphia Eagles (minus-11.3, 2), Chiefs (minus-6.6, 3), Browns (minus-6.2, 1), Bengals (minus-6.0, 1).
Wide receivers
Trade for: Cooper Kupp
His season has been relatively disappointing, as his 114.0 PPR fantasy points at the midway point of the Rams' schedule put him well behind where he was at this stage of 2019 (167.6 points), as well as more than three points per game beneath his 17.7 rate at the midway point of 2018.
Still, the more productive portion of his 2020 is probably still ahead of him, with both of his matchups remaining against the Cardinals (Weeks 13 and 17) and Seahawks (Weeks 10 and 16), two of the best for his position, and defenses that have had a miserable time defending opposing WR1s. And you can feel free to make a bid for Robert Woods, if you regard him as a WR1, though I'd say they're effectively WR1 and WR1A.
Most favorable remaining schedules for a WR: Rams (46.5, 5), Eagles (29.3, 4), Colts (29.0, 5), Browns (22.1, 5), Giants (19.8, 3), Las Vegas Raiders (14.9, 5), Football Team (12.4, 3), Saints (12.2, 3), Ravens (8.7, 4).
Most favorable fantasy playoffs schedules for a WR: Rams (23.5, 3), 49ers (18.6, 2), Cowboys (13.5, 2), Football Team (13.2, 1), Ravens (12.6, 2), Colts (11.7, 2), Browns (9.7, 3), Chargers (6.7, 2), Buccaneers (6.6, 2), Houston Texans (6.5, 3).
Trade away: Justin Jefferson
He's a burgeoning superstar, and in a dynasty or keeper league, there's absolutely no chance whatsoever you should be trading him. Jefferson's bright future, however, is something you can use to inflate his trade price tag, and in a league that drafts fresh annually, he's not as attractive a second-half play as you might think. Consider his prospective cornerback matchups, beginning in Week 12: Rasul Douglas, Chris Claybrooks (OK, so there's one favorable one), Carlton Davis, Jaylon Johnson, Marshon Lattimore and Amani Oruwariye. There really isn't a soft spot in the bunch.
Least favorable remaining schedules for a WR: Vikings (minus-27.1, 6), Cardinals (minus-20.4, 4), Panthers (minus-19.7, 4), Packers (minus-17.7, 5), Pittsburgh Steelers (minus-17.0, 4), Broncos (minus-15.5, 4), New York Jets (minus-13.6, 4), Buccaneers (minus-11.6, 3), Dolphins (minus-10.1, 3), Texans (minus-9.6, 3), Falcons (minus-9.4, 3), Titans (minus-9.1, 4), Lions (minus-8.5, 5).
Least favorable fantasy playoffs schedules for a WR: Dolphins (minus-21.6, 2), Vikings (minus-15.2, 3), Patriots (minus-15.2, 3), Falcons (minus-15.0, 3), Broncos (minus-13.5, 3), Seahawks (minus-13.1, 2), Packers (minus-11.2, 3), Jaguars (minus-9.7, 2), Bills (minus-7.9, 2), Jets (minus-7.4, 2), Panthers (minus-6.3, 2).
Tight ends
Trade for: Mike Gesicki
When it comes to tight ends, I'd prefer the player who helps me sooner than later, considering how rapidly the positional matchup grades shift. Gesicki's fantasy stock has plummeted after a trio of quiet performances surrounding his Week 7 bye, his target total a troubling eight in those games. Nevertheless, he has one of the position's best schedules during the next month, including those Weeks 12 and 13 games against the Jets and Bengals. Gesicki shouldn't cost much at all to acquire, but he has a lot of room for statistical growth during the second half.
Most favorable remaining schedules for a TE: Steelers (minus-13.7, 3), Cowboys (minus-12.9, 2), Dolphins (minus-11.4, 3), Lions (minus-8.9, 4), Patriots (minus-8.4, 3).
Most favorable fantasy playoffs schedules for a TE: Texans (12.4, 3), Cowboys (9.9, 1), Ravens (6.1, 1).
Trade away: Jonnu Smith
Conversely, I want to avoid the tougher tight end matchups in the short term, and Smith's during the next three weeks are brutal (IND, @BAL, @IND). Deeper down the road, he'll face the Packers, one of the toughest against the pass this season, in what is the championship week in many fantasy leagues (Week 16). Smith's dwindling target share during the past four weeks is also of concern, as he has totaled only 10 targets in that time span, for an 8.3% share.
Least favorable remaining schedules for a TE: Eagles (minus-14.8, 3), Bills (minus-12.4, 2), Bengals (minus-10.5, 2), Falcons (minus-10.1, 2), Chiefs (minus-8.8, 2).
Least favorable fantasy playoffs schedules for a TE: Panthers (minus-13.0, 3), Bills (minus-12.4, 2), Eagles (minus-8.5, 1), Chiefs (minus-7.6, 1), Jets (minus-7.1, 1), Raiders (minus-6.1, 2).