Matchups play a huge part in fantasy football managers' start and sit decisions. When choosing between two (or more) similarly talented players, the decision often boils down to: Which one has the best matchup?
We use that word -- matchups -- a lot. But what, exactly, constitutes a favorable or unfavorable matchup?
This is where the "Matchups Map" comes in. Each week, I'll provide a schedule-independent method to determine the strength of positional matchups, using the most recent, relevant data. Check back for updated numbers each week, including matchups highlights at each position -- both favorable and unfavorable -- based on those statistics. For these purposes, we will use PPR (point per reception) scoring.
"Adj. FPA," or adjusted fantasy points allowed, reflects how far above or below a player's average that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. This is a team-wide analysis, so a plus-5.0 Adj. FPA to running backs would mean that the defense afforded its opponents' entire running back corps five additional points on average, which should be kept in mind when evaluating running back-by-committees. All data is from the past five weeks of NFL action.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited; not every unfavorable matchup should be avoided. To get the most complete recipe for whom to start and sit, consult my weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Favorable matchup: Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (versus Las Vegas Raiders). He's off to an unexpectedly outstanding start to his NFL career, his 147.0 points through his first six starts is second-most among quarterbacks since at least 1950 (Deshaun Watson, 163.2), and the numbers back him up as a composed, accurate passer, even under pressure. Herbert's 67.4% completion rate is second-best among rookies during the 21st century, his 15.7% off-target rate is fourth-best, his 2.2% interception rate is sixth-best and, among all players in 2020 alone, he has top-five touchdown and adjusted completion rates when under pressure.
The good vibes should only continue to flow against a Raiders defense that has struggled mightily, outside of a 16-6 Week 8 victory over the Cleveland Browns, and even in that game the defense had no sacks, no interceptions, two passes defensed and one forced fumble, with a lot of its "success" attributable to the Browns' 47 offensive plays run (a rather low number). The Raiders put practically no pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and when Herbert has been given time to throw he has been excellent, especially in the past two weeks: 71.4% completion rate (50-of-70), 580 yards (second most) and six touchdowns (also second most).
Unfavorable matchup: Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens (at Indianapolis Colts). His is the matchup from among the Week 9 QB1 class that most concerns me, and it's by a large enough margin that I've even ranked Herbert ahead of him. Sure, the Colts' defense statistically struggled against the pass in Week 8, only the second time all season that could reasonably be said (also see: Week 1), but take a closer look: Nearly half (10.1 of 22.4) of Matthew Stafford's fantasy production came in garbage time, with 13:34 to play and his team down by three touchdowns, and before that point in the game he had an interception, lost a fumble and had been sacked three times. The Colts haven't faced a lot in the way of mobile quarterbacks this season, certainly none of Jackson's caliber, and the two they did face -- Gardner Minshew II (20.8 points, Week 1) and Joe Burrow (16.7, Week 6) -- had respectable performances. Still, Jackson has struggled to find his rhythm throwing the football this season, and this doesn't seem like the right matchup with which to find it.
Running backs
Favorable matchup: JaMycal Hasty, San Francisco 49ers (versus Green Bay Packers). It's a strange, strange game on Thursday night for the 49ers, who will have only three of their offensive starters from these teams' NFC Championship Game, and none of the players responsible for their 354 total yards of offense in it, available. Still, the callback to that contest is apt here, as coach Kyle Shanahan's run scheme seems to breed running back stars regardless of the name on the uniform, best evidenced by the 49ers' sporting a league-leading three running backs with a 20-point PPR fantasy performance on their 2020 résumés. Hasty might become the fourth to join that list, after playing 41% of the team's offensive snaps while enjoying a 55% rushing share in Week 8, and the team's other backfield injury absences make it likely that he'll serve as the primary ball carrier, while Jerick McKinnon (also a strong matchups play) will handle most of the passing-down work.
The Packers have surrendered two of the season's top three PPR fantasy point totals by running backs -- Dalvin Cook's leading 48.6 in Week 8, and Alvin Kamara's third-ranked 44.7 in Week 3 -- not to mention league-high, full-season numbers in terms of positional fantasy points per rushing attempt (0.86) and PPR points per target (2.18). Hasty probably isn't going to match Raheem Mostert's 220 yards and four touchdowns rushing from the NFC Championship Game, but his ceiling for this game might well match slicing those numbers in half.
Unfavorable matchup: Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts (versus Baltimore Ravens). Coming off a 5.1 PPR fantasy point, 11-carry, 33% offensive snap count rate performance in Week 8, not to mention the ankle issue reported shortly after that game, Taylor's fantasy stock couldn't look much more tenuous heading into this dreadful matchup. Jordan Wilkins and Nyheim Hines were the Colts' backfield stars of a week ago, and Taylor's questionable health might keep this firmly locked in a committee arrangement, at least for this game. The opposing Ravens, meanwhile, afforded a combined 42.6 PPR fantasy points on 58 touches to Joe Mixon (Week 5), Miles Sanders (Week 6) and James Conner (Week 8) in their past three games, and for the season they've allowed a league-low 59.8 points to the position.
Wide receivers
Favorable matchup: John Brown, Buffalo Bills (versus Seattle Seahawks). The Seahawks' struggles defending the pass continue, as they have allowed 403.8 PPR fantasy points to the position this season, nearly a full 50 points more than the second-place team, and that's despite having already enjoyed their bye week (while the second-place Cleveland Browns, for one, have not). Cornerbacks Shaquill Griffin (15.8 PPR fantasy points, second most in the league) and Quinton Dunbar (13.8, eighth most) rank among the bottom eight in the league in terms of PPR fantasy points allowed per game in pass coverage, and both of them generally defend the perimeter, which is where Brown aligns the majority of the time.
Brown showed us what he can do with a favorable matchup in Week 1, when he scored 19.0 points on 10 targets against the New York Jets, and so long as his knee affords him the opportunity to come anywhere close to his 93% of offensive snaps played and 47 routes run from that game, he should shine again versus this defense.
Unfavorable matchup: Darius Slayton, New York Giants (at Washington Football Team. None of the Giants' wide receivers looks particularly appealing against Washington, being that their defense has allowed the fewest PPR fantasy points per game, both for the season (25.7) as well as during the past five weeks (22.6). It's their strength against perimeter receivers that stands out, however, which is why Slayton -- and Sterling Shepard, for that matter -- is a "sit" candidate ahead of typical slot receiver Golden Tate, who doesn't appear much more attractive a fantasy option in his own right. Thanks in large part to cornerback Kendall Fuller's strong play -- he has allowed only 9.0 points with four interceptions and five passes defensed on 112 coverage snaps in his five games played thus far -- the Football Team held opposing perimeter and WR1 receivers to a combined 44.4 points in its three games preceding the Week 8 bye, including Slayton himself (11.8 points on only four targets).
Tight ends
Favorable matchup: Noah Fant, Denver Broncos (at Atlanta Falcons). It's hardly a recent trend that the Falcons have struggled to contain opposing tight ends. For the full season, this defense has 8.18 adjusted fantasy points allowed, most in the league by more than four full points over the No. 2 team (Philadelphia Eagles, 4.14). In the process, the Falcons have been responsible for allowing Robert Tonyan (33.8 PPR fantasy points in Week 4), Jimmy Graham (24.0, Week 3) and Dalton Schultz (21.8, Week 2) to post season bests against them. Fant, who missed Week 6 with an ankle injury, seemed to rebound in Week 8, catching 7 of 9 targets for 11.7 PPR fantasy points, a sign that he's firmly back on the TE1 radar. With a matchup like this, he has a legitimate chance to exceed his season-best 19.1 points of Week 1.
Unfavorable matchup: Jared Cook, New Orleans Saints (at Tampa Bay Buccaneers). Three consecutive games of 12.2-plus PPR fantasy points have put Cook back on the TE1 map, but his matchup in Week 9 pushes him out of that rankings tier. Sure, he scored 13.0 points on seven targets against this defense in Week 1, but it's important to note that in their past four games, the Buccaneers have afforded 28.6 points on 20 targets to their opponents' No. 1 tight ends, and that's a time frame that included games against T.J. Hockenson (Week 4) and Hunter Henry (Week 5).