Matchups play a huge part in fantasy football managers' start and sit decisions. When choosing between two (or more) similarly talented players, the decision often boils down to: Which one has the best matchup?
We use that word -- matchups -- a lot. But what, exactly, constitutes a favorable or unfavorable matchup?
This is where the "Matchups Map" comes in. Each week, I'll provide a schedule-independent method to determine strength of positional matchups, using the most recent, relevant data. Check back for updated numbers each week, including matchup highlights at each position -- both favorable and unfavorable -- based upon those statistics. For these purposes, we will use PPR (Point Per Reception) scoring.
"Adj. FPA," or Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed, reflects how far above or below a player's average that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. This is a team-wide analysis, so a plus-5.0 Adj. FPA to running backs would mean that the defense afforded its opponents' entire running back corps five additional points on average, which should be kept in mind when evaluating running back committees. All data is from the past five weeks' NFL action.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited; not every unfavorable matchup should be avoided. To get the most complete recipe for whom to start and sit, consult my weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Favorable matchup: Teddy Bridgewater, Carolina Panthers (versus Atlanta Falcons). Their opponents' final possessions in the past two weeks underscore the Falcons' problems defending the pass. Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings needed only three plays and 45 seconds to march 80 yards downfield for a touchdown in Week 6, then Matthew Stafford required eight plays and 1:04 to lead the Detroit Lions 75 yards downfield for a touchdown in Week 7, and keep in mind that's with the defense knowing exactly what was coming. Cousins and Stafford combined for 42.1 fantasy points in the entirety of those games, and in Week 5, Bridgewater scored a season-high 20.5 of his 20.8 fantasy points passing against these same Falcons.
Bridgewater's conservative approach -- his 6.6-yard average depth of target is fourth lowest among 32 qualifiers -- keeps him from carrying a fantasy team all on his own, but he has been remarkably accurate nevertheless, with second-ranked 72.2% completion and third-ranked 12.5% off-target rates. His game-by-game patterns, too, have fallen directly into the hands of his matchups, with his two best performances coming when facing his two best matchups (26.2 points in Week 4 versus the Arizona Cardinals, and the aforementioned 20.8 against the Falcons) and his worst two coming when facing his two toughest matchups (8.7 in Week 2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and 9.4 in Week 6 versus the Chicago Bears).
Unfavorable matchup: Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (versus New England Patriots). His performance the past three weeks has night-and-day contrast with that of his first four games. Allen was a fantasy sensation in the latter, averaging 29.8 fantasy points behind a 21-of-27 (77.8%), three-touchdown performance on vertical passes (those thrown at least 15 yards beyond the line of scrimmage downfield), but in his past three games he has averaged only 15.9 fantasy points while going 6-of-20 (30.0%) with one touchdown, two interceptions and a 35% off-target rate on vertical throws. That regression is alarming, especially when compared to his 38.7% completion and 42.5% off-target rates on those throws in 2019 as a whole. It's particularly bad news when leading into a Patriots matchup, against a defense that held Allen to 16.4 fantasy points on 54 pass attempts, and 29.3 fantasy points overall, in their two meetings in 2019. After how strong he started the year as well as accounting for his mobility, Allen is probably still too good to bench, but I was tempted to move him to the back end of the top 10 in my rankings considering these factors.
Running backs
Favorable matchup: Darrell Henderson Jr., Los Angeles Rams (at Miami Dolphins). Week 7 threw a wrinkle into this backfield, as after Henderson enjoyed exactly three goal-to-go rushing attempts in each of the previous two weeks, Malcolm Brown received the Rams' only such opportunity and converted it. The identity of the Rams' goal-line back is important to know in advance, considering the opposing Dolphins' struggles in short-yardage situations: They've allowed a league-worst 71% conversion rate (5-of-7) on goal-to-go rushing plays, and they're tied with the worst first-down conversion rate (89.5%) on short-yardage (one yard or less) rushing plays. Whichever it is, Henderson is still getting enough work to capitalize upon this matchup -- remember that even one goal-line carry should get it done -- as he has backfield-leading totals with a 50% snap count played and 60% rushing time share in his past three games. Incidentally, rookie Cam Akers has played just 8% of the Rams' offensive snaps during that time span, seemingly a nonfactor.
Unfavorable matchup: David Montgomery, Chicago Bears (versus New Orleans Saints). In what has been a disappointing season for the Saints' defense, one facet that has performed well is their run defense, which through seven weeks has afforded opposing running backs only 0.49 fantasy points per rushing attempt, fifth-lowest in the league. The Saints have largely kept big names in check: Aaron Jones scored only 16.6 PPR fantasy points against them (Week 3), Josh Jacobs scored 13.5 (Week 2) and Mike Davis, most recently, managed only 8.6 points (Week 7). Despite playing 83% of the Bears' offensive snaps and earning five goal-to-go rushing attempts the past four weeks combined, Montgomery has struggled to push his fantasy production beyond the level of a mid-range RB2. This isn't the kind of matchup from which to expect that to change, opportunity or not.
Wide receivers
Favorable matchup: Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals (versus Tennessee Titans). Any of the Bengals' top three wide receivers stand out from a matchups standpoint, from slot receiver Tyler Boyd and his team-leading (among receivers) 16.5 PPR fantasy points per game average, 61 targets and nine red-zone targets, to veteran A.J. Green, who has a team-high 24 targets as well as three end-zone targets the past two weeks combined, to the rookie Higgins. Higgins stands out here because of how often he lines up on the perimeter, running 77% of his routes from there, tops among those three receivers. Considering the Titans allowed a combined 75.1 PPR fantasy points from Brandin Cooks, Will Fuller V and Diontae Johnson the past two weeks, with those three primarily lining up outside, Higgins should fare well here. As for any workload concern, consider this: Higgins' target share in the Bengals' past five games is a healthy 19% (36-of-191).
Unfavorable matchup: Robert Woods, Los Angeles Rams (at Miami Dolphins). While Henderson gets the matchups OK, Woods lands on the opposite side of the scale, because of how much more effective the Dolphins have been against the pass this season. Consider this: If we adjust the chart below to account for only teams' WR1s, then the Dolphins would be the league's leaders in Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed, both for the past five weeks (minus-8.7) and the season as a whole (minus-4.0). That's due to the excellent play of cornerbacks Xavien Howard, who has allowed only 26.0 PPR fantasy points while totaling four interceptions on 177 coverage snaps, and Byron Jones, who has allowed 21.1 points on 89 coverage snaps. Woods, and Cooper Kupp to a lesser extent, look more like WR3s to me this week.
Tight ends
Favorable matchup: Richard Rodgers, Philadelphia Eagles (versus Dallas Cowboys). Give him some credit for a big Week 7, as his 14.5 PPR fantasy points represented the most the opposing New York Giants have afforded a tight end all season. Rodgers played 85% of the Eagles' offensive snaps in that game, ran 29 routes and earned a 20% target share, all of which bode well for this extremely favorable all-around matchup for the team's passing game. While the Cowboys do typically struggle to rein in wide receivers, they haven't been that much more fortunate containing tight ends, and Carson Wentz does tend to rely on tight ends frequently, what with injuries and a general lack of depth at receiver. Just look at last week: Logan Thomas enjoyed a season-best 16.0 PPR fantasy points against the Cowboys, and he did it by catching all four of his targets against them.
Unfavorable matchup: T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions (versus Indianapolis Colts). He might be the team's leader in overall targets (32), red zone targets (9) and end zone targets (6), and while the latter two are particularly fantasy relevant, pointing out that the former results in a mere 16% target share puts it more into context. Matthew Stafford likes to spread the ball around, and considering how much more favorable his wide receivers match up against this Colts defense, Hockenson shouldn't be expected to contribute much. These Colts have held tight ends to the fewest PPR fantasy points per target (0.84), they haven't allowed an individual score greater than 10.7 (Austin Hooper, Week 5), and in red zone situations, opposing tight ends are 0-for-2 catching passes against them.