Matchups play a huge part in fantasy managers' weekly lineup decisions. When choosing between two (or more) similarly talented players, the decision often boils down to: Which one has the best matchup?
We use that word -- matchups -- a lot. But what, exactly, constitutes a favorable or unfavorable matchup?
This is where the "Matchups Map" comes in. Each week, I'll provide a schedule-independent method to determine strength of positional matchups, using the most recent, relevant data. Check back for updated numbers each week, including matchups highlights at each position -- both favorable and unfavorable -- based upon those statistics. For these purposes, we will use PPR (Point Per Reception) scoring.
The maps include two measures: The first, "Rk," is my personal ranking of how favorable/unfavorable I consider that positional matchup; the second, "Adj. FPA," reflects how far above or below a player's average that defense held opponents at that position. For Week 4, we'll use 2020 data (three weeks are already in the books), but starting in Week 6, we'll use the most recent five weeks.
Finally, a couple of caveats: The "Adj. FPA" statistics in this week's column represent only a three-week, smaller-than-usual sample, so my personal ranking ("Rk") won't fall quite in line as it will in future weeks.
Also, remember that matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, and not every unfavorable matchup should be avoided. To get the most complete recipe for whom to start and sit, consult my weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Favorable matchup: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (versus Jacksonville Jaguars). The No. 1 pick in this year's draft, Burrow has been every bit as good as advertised thus far. He has shown good poise in the pocket, best illustrated by his having a higher-than-league-average completion percentage (55.9%, compared to 51.7%) and no interceptions when pressured, despite having been pressured 48 times, second most often in the league (Daniel Jones, 56).
Burrow has also exhibited the kind of mobility that could make him an annual fantasy MVP candidate, rushing 16 times for 64 yards and a touchdown, making him one of only five quarterbacks with at least 40 fantasy points on passing plays and 10 on rushing plays (Josh Allen, Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott and Deshaun Watson).
Now Burrow draws as his opponent the Jaguars, a defense that afforded 25-plus fantasy points to both Ryan Tannehill (26.8, Week 2) and Ryan Fitzpatrick (25.2, Week 3) the past two weeks. There's a strong case for Burrow being a universal fantasy start -- meaning even in 10-team leagues.
Unfavorable matchup: Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (versus Los Angeles Chargers). This isn't a week of super-tough matchups, with the two most logical candidates quarterbacks you'd unquestionably start -- Patrick Mahomes (NE) and Kyler Murray (@CAR) -- but on the lower value tiers, Brady is a no-can-do, outside of two-quarterback leagues where you're thin on alternatives.
Yes, the Chargers' defense has been hit hard by injuries, with defensive end Melvin Ingram (knee) and defensive tackle Justin Jones (shoulder) now on injured reserve and ineligible to return before Weeks 6 and 7, respectively, but in their absence, the team has also gotten good production from Uchenna Nwosu, and the team does still have Joey Bosa solidifying its defensive line.
Brady, meanwhile, enters this game most likely without slot receiver Chris Godwin (hamstring), in a matchup where Mike Evans will probably be shadowed by cornerback Casey Hayward Jr. Brady's numbers, predictably, haven't been eye-popping, and while part of it has been his receivers' inability to consistently stay on the field, it's not like his average depth of target (7.5 in 2020, 8.1 career) or yards per attempt (6.9, 7.5) will generate a lot of excitement.
Running backs
Favorable matchup: Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills (at Las Vegas Raiders). Granted a chance to absorb the majority of the Bills' rushing work in Zack Moss' (toe) Week 3 absence, Singletary put forth an impressive effort against the Los Angeles Rams, totaling 121 yards on 17 touches, including three runs of 10-plus yards and a 34-yard reception.
Now Singletary draws one of the most favorable matchups a running back could ask for, against a Raiders defense that has allowed the league's most PPR fantasy points (133.5) and points per run (1.13) and second-most PPR fantasy points on receptions (57.5) to the position. Sure, the Raiders drew brutal Weeks 1-2 matchups in Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara, but they also had a major issue containing the New England Patriots' one-two punch of Rex Burkhead (34.9 PPR fantasy points, including 17.9 receiving) and Sony Michel (16.0) in Week 3.
Moss did practice Wednesday and is expected to be available for the game, but this is still Singletary's show, and if Moss suffers a setback and ultimately sits, it'd only further boost Singletary's matchup into the mid-RB2 range.
Unfavorable matchup: Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns (at Dallas Cowboys). The Browns' one-two running back duo, which includes Kareem Hunt, has been excellent thus far, with Chubb ranked eighth at his position in PPR fantasy points (55.9) and Hunt 13th (50.6), but Chubb appears set to return to earth during Week 4.
He has most typically been their first option on rushing downs, while Hunt has been on passing downs, which could be a problem in a game against a Cowboys team that should be able to roll up the score. Consider this: When trailing on the scoreboard, Chubb has had 21 carries and two targets to Hunt's 20 and six, and Hunt (14) has run three more routes than Chubb when the Browns have trailed by at least one touchdown. The Cowboys, by the way, have allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points per carry (0.51).
Wide receivers
Favorable matchup: Preston Williams, Miami Dolphins (versus Seattle Seahawks). The number you see in the chart below is no misprint; the Seahawks indeed have 24.2 adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers through three games. They've embraced an all-out, shootout approach, with Russell Wilson off to a historic start and the Seahawks' opponents totaling 219.6 PPR fantasy points from their wide receivers, which is 74.5 more than the second-place team. What's more, six of the 30 total games of 20-plus points from wide receivers have come against these Seahawks; no other team has allowed more than three such performances.
It's a no-brainer to start DeVante Parker, but this matchup is why I've also included Williams in my top 50 rankings at the position, as both should be heavily involved against this defense. Parker has three red zone and three end zone targets, so there's a good chance he's again going to be needed in scoring position in this game.
Unfavorable matchup: Terry McLaurin, Washington Football Team (versus Baltimore Ravens). A 52.5 PPR-fantasy-point game by the Kansas City Chiefs' wide receivers against this Ravens' defense moved the unit's numbers closer to the middle of the pack, but we shouldn't judge it too harshly based upon a three-week set of data during which its only poor performance was against Mahomes and company.
The Ravens still have an excellent cornerback corps, and they held the Cleveland Browns' Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry to a combined 16.3 PPR fantasy points on 16 targets in Week 1 and Will Fuller V scoreless on 22 routes run in Week 2. McLaurin might have a good target share (25%, 25-of-99), but he also has a quarterback who will have trouble effectively delivering him the ball against a defense like this.
Tight ends
Favorable matchup: T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions (versus New Orleans Saints). Through three weeks, the Saints' defense hasn't been anywhere near as good as advertised. One area that has been severely lacking is containing the opponent's tight end, as O.J. Howard, Darren Waller and Robert Tonyan have combined to score 58.1 PPR fantasy points on 27 targets. When the Saints have used a cornerback to cover the tight end, they've been fine, but when they've had a safety like C.J. Gardner-Johnson or Malcolm Jenkins handle the coverage, they've struggled to the tune of 10 catches for 112 yards and two touchdowns.
Hockenson has seen seven, four and five targets through his three games, with PPR fantasy point totals between 9.3 and 16.6. If he continues to see that kind of workload here, he should manage a top-10 tight end performance.
Unfavorable matchup: Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams (versus New York Giants). He hasn't been getting nearly the same usage in the receiving game as he did during his epic finish to the 2019 season, running only 45 total routes in his first three games, that average of 15 paling in comparison to his 23.6 in his final eight games last year.
Higbee has been kept in to block much more often, despite playing roughly the same number of snaps. With his receiving volume down, he's a weak fantasy play in this matchup against a Giants defense that, thanks to bolstering its linebacker corps during the offseason, has allowed the seventh-fewest PPR fantasy points (22.3) and sixth-fewest points per target (1.31) to tight ends.