My fantasy football draft blueprint has always been to wait on the quarterback position. Fill the lineup with my top running back targets, hit on the wide receivers and then come back to grab a lower-tier QB1. I'm good with a volume thrower in the Round 9-10 range. However, in my recent mocks, I have been trying out different strategies, even jumping early for quarterbacks with top-five upside.
Today, I'm going to break down eight quarterbacks who are currently on my fantasy radar. From the Tier 1 guys to the deeper-league QB1s, plus my top picks for 2-QB formats. Let's get into it. I'm also including Mike Clay's projections to give you a better idea of each player's outlook for the 2020 NFL season.
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Current average draft position (ADP): 55.4 (QB5)
Clay's 2020 projections: 3,816 passing yards, 26 TDs, 12 INTs; 87 carries, 473 rushing yards, 3 TDs
If I'm going to draft a quarterback early
Now let's add that expected boost in passing totals -- and passing efficiency -- to the rushing volume for Murray in Kliff Kingsbury's system. Murray rushed for 544 yards last season, with 339 yards on 62 designed rushes -- the third most in the NFL, behind Jackson and Josh Allen. He also posted a run of at least 15 yards in nine games. And with Murray's December schedule -- home, at Giants, home, home, at Rams -- he's going to see only one possible poor-weather game to close out the fantasy season. Murray projects as a Tier 1 fantasy starter, in my opinion, with a top-five ceiling in 2020.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Current ADP: 60.3 (QB6)
Clay's 2020 projections: 4,170 yards, 27 TDs, 11 INTs; 50 carries, 250 yards, 4 TDs
If I miss on Murray or he is drafted much higher than his ADP, then I'm going to target Prescott. The Cowboys starter -- who is currently ranked as my No. 4 QB -- leads an offense that led the NFL in yards per play last season (6.5), and also gets a bump in 2020 with the addition of rookie wide receiver CeeDee Lamb. You want to see a bunch of three-wide receiver personnel? That should be the script with Lamb joining Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup in Dallas. And with tight end Blake Jarwin, who has some seam-stretching ability, I really believe the Cowboys could become more pass-heavy under new head coach Mike McCarthy.
Remember, Prescott ranked No.1 in air yards per attempt last season at 9.2, while also producing an on-target rate of 84.7%. Plus, Prescott registered nine games with a rushing touchdown or at least three touchdown throws. While Prescott won't see as many designed run calls as Murray, he's a scoring threat in the tight red zone, and I fully expect Dallas to continue using both misdirection and boot to get him outside of the pocket. For me, Prescott carries a very high fantasy floor into the season for an offense that is going to put points up on the scoreboard.
Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Current ADP: 74.4 (QB7)
Clay's 2020 projections: 4,429 yards, 31 TDs, 10 INTs; 24 carries, 28 yards, 2 TDs
With the anticipation here that the Bucs adapt the passing game to fit Brady's throwing traits, while also using more two-tight end personnel, the former Patriot is an intriguing mid-tier QB1 target with the upgraded pass-catchers he will work with in Tampa.
Last season, the Bucs' wide receivers averaged 22.5% more yards after the catch than the Patriots. Chris Godwin and Mike Evans? Playmakers. Look for more play-action, seams and in-breakers there. Add that to the tight end route tree with Rob Gronkowski and O.J. Howard, as well as the running back targets that have always been a critical part of Brady's game.
Plus, let's not forget about Brady's ability to master red zone situations -- especially with Gronkowski in the mix. Over his past three seasons with Gronkowski on the roster (2016-18), Brady has thrown 64 red zone touchdown passes, with just two red zone interceptions. Brady has always been dialed in here, given his ability to identify matchups and coverages pre-snap inside the 20-yard line. Last season's No. 12 quarterback in fantasy scoring, I believe Brady has top-10 upside in an offense that is set up to move the ball through the air.
Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions
Current ADP: 133.8 (QB13)
Clay's 2020 projections: 4,215 yards, 28 TDs, 11 INTs; 34 carries, 124 yards, 1 TD
Stafford played in only eight games last season -- his first missed time since the 2010 season. However, from Weeks 1-9, Stafford ranked No. 2 in touchdown throws (19) and No. 4 in passing yards (2,499), while averaging 20.8 fantasy points per game. Arm talent, ball location and second-reaction ability. He's an aggressive thrower who averaged 10.8 air yards per attempt last season, a 40.7% bump over his career average of 7.7. Push that ball down the field.
Looking at those numbers, and projecting that Stafford will once again have to play "hero ball" in 2020 to compensate for a very leaky Detroit defense, the throwing volume should be there. And the Lions have the offensive weapons to create explosive plays. That's why I'm targeting Stafford as a lower-tier QB1 in 12-14 team leagues.
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Current ADP: 150.0 (QB15)
Clay's 2020 projections: 3,701 yards, 20 TDs, 13 INTs; 54 carries, 259 yards, 2 TDs
I really think Burrow can produce viable fantasy numbers as a rookie. The system fit works here in Cincinnati. Throw play-action concepts, build in defined reads off formation/alignment and scheme-up verticals. Plus, with A.J. Green back healthy, Burrow has a proven No. 1 to lead a wide receiver group with some upside in Cincy. The last time Green played (nine games in 2018), he saw at least 10 targets or scored in seven of his nine games. And even if there is a slight drop-off to Green's overall game -- who will turn 32 before the start of the season -- he's a veteran with upper-tier route-running skills.
With any rookie quarterback, there are going to be some bumps in the road early. However, I look at the traits with Burrow. It's high-level stuff, from the movement skills to the ability to process quickly and the on-point ball location. And playing in Cincinnati, where the Bengals trailed on 70.1% of offensive snaps last season, he's going to have to throw with volume in the second half of games. One of my top dynasty targets, Burrow is also a prime option for 2-QB leagues. And don't be surprised if he develops into a lower-tier QB1 in 14-team leagues by the midpoint of the 2020 season.
Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns
Current ADP: 160.7 (QB18)
Clay's 2020 projections: 3,708 yards, 25 TDs, 16 INTs; 33 carries, 132 yards, 2 TDs
Love the fit for Mayfield in Kevin Stefanski's offense. Heavy play-action, schemed deep-ball throws and high-to-low reads in the middle of the field. He's going to get opportunities to target open coverage voids in this route tree, and the red zone playcalling will be much improved under Stefanski. The schedule sets up for Mayfield too, with six games this season against defenses that were bottom-10 versus quarterbacks in 2019. We can add in the upgrade at tight end with Austin Hooper here as well, plus Mayfield gets a full season with Kareem Hunt in 2020 as a receiver out of the backfield.
However, as much as I want to see Mayfield throwing deep crossers to Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry, this is simply about his overall volume as a thrower. If we look back at Kirk Cousins' numbers with Stefanski last season in Minnesota, the quarterback attempted more than 30 passes in only eight games, with only four games of 300 or more yards passing. With that lower ceiling, Mayfield should be targeted as a prime option for 2-QB formats with streaming potential in 12 team leagues.
Drew Lock, Denver Broncos
Current ADP: 165.7 (QB21)
Clay's 2020 projections: 3,511 yards, 21 TDs, 11 INTs; 51 carries, 221 yards, 1 TD
One of my favorite late-round targets, Lock is in a prime position to make that second-year jump after the Broncos set the table for him at the skill spots. This unit has the potential to produce 7-on-7 numbers with a mix of young playmakers and speed. And Lock did show flashes of fantasy upside last season. If we take out the snow game on the road at Kansas City in '19, Lock completed 70.7% of his passes with a 7-2 touchdown-to-interception rate. Plus, he showed some poise, averaging 10 yards per blitzed pass attempt, which is the highest rate as a rookie among all active quarterbacks.
Yes, we are looking at a pretty small sample size here with Lock from his rookie season in '19. But if you go watch the game versus Houston, he is out there throwing rockets. The arm talent jumps. And given that the Broncos will get four games against Kansas City and Las Vegas -- split safety coverage defenses -- and two against the zone-heavy Chargers in the AFC West, he will have opportunities to attack the middle of the field and anticipate open windows. There's a lot to like here for a quarterback who must be targeted for 2-QB leagues, with streaming upside.
Gardner Minshew II, Jacksonville Jaguars
Current ADP: 168.8 (QB26)
Clay's 2020 projections: 3,630 yards, 18 TDs, 9 INTs; 56 carries, 289 yards, 1 TD
Another late-round target in 2-QB formats -- who produced five games as a top-12 quarterback in 2019 -- Minshew enters this season with no real competition for the No. 1 spot in Jacksonville, and the new system under offensive coordinator Jay Gruden is a pretty good fit for the second-year pro. Think West Coast here; get the ball out with speed. And that's not counting Minshew's second-reaction ability, which allowed the quarterback to rush for at least 27 yards in eight of his 12 starts last year. That's 66.7% of his starts. In 2019, that was a higher rate than Deshaun Watson (60%).
Plus, like Burrow in Cincinnati, Minshew is going to play some catch-up ball, given this rebuilding Jags team. Last season, Jacksonville was trailing for 70.8% of offensive snaps (most in the league). That means more passing attempts and more targets for wide receiver DJ Chark Jr., who had eight touchdown receptions in '19 and a drop rate of just 1.7%. And the film tells the story on Chark, too. He's a true No. 1 for Minshew. Really like the upside here and the play style with Minshew. As I said above, he should be drafted in 2-QB formats, and I might even try to grab him late to roster as a QB2 in my deeper leagues.