Running backs can make or break your fantasy football season. Take a guy early who doesn't get the volume -- or gets hurt? Welcome to 10th place. Grab a young guy in the middle rounds who works his way into 20 touches a game, though? That's how you become a champ.
Here are the players I'm targeting in my early 2020 mock drafts, from guys at the top of the board to sneaky steals in the later rounds. I'll explain why I like each guy, and I'm also including our ESPN Fantasy projections from Mike Clay so you can get an idea of their outlook. Let's go:
Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings
Current average draft position (ADP): 6.0 (RB4)
Clay's projections: 245 carries, 1,055 yards, 10 TDs; 64 receptions, 531 yards, 1 TD
In our first mock draft of the season, I grabbed Cook at No. 2 -- with Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley still on the board. Some risk here given Cook's past injuries? Sure. However, I look at the consistent volume with Cook, the high-end play speed he brings to the Minnesota offense and his ability to produce as a receiving target in the open field.
In 2019, Cook saw 20 or more touches in 10 games, and he led the league with 29 goal-to-go carries. Plus, Cook caught 53 passes, while ranking fourth among running backs in yards after the catch. He's a viable screen target in the Vikings' system, and we know he's going to see the ball in scoring position. Sign me up.
Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
Current ADP: 20.3 (RB8)
Clay's projections: 274 carries, 1,288 yards, 9 TDs; 27 receptions, 214 yards, 1 TD
Yes, Chubb will lose some touches this season to Kareem Hunt in Cleveland. I get that. And the Browns' No. 1 back will have more upside in non-PPR formats. However, I'm still all-in on Chubb's running traits in the Browns' new offensive system. Here, I expect much more structured playcalling with new head coach Kevin Stefanski. Multiple-tight-end sets, two-back runs and more.
We know Chubb can run with power, and that's reflected by his league-leading 2.7 yards after first contact on up-the-middle runs last season. But even with that downhill juice, we can't forget about his explosive-play ability. In 2019, Chubb posted 20 explosive-play runs (runs of 15 or more yards). The only player to produce more: Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson. Chubb has the vision and the open-field speed to rip off chunk plays.
Now pair that with run-game volume and offensive fit under Stefanski. Yep. He's a prime target for me and currently RB6 in my non-PPR rankings.
David Montgomery, Chicago Bears
Current ADP: 89.1 (RB27)
Clay's projection: 212 carries, 849 yards, 6 TDs; 26 receptions, 216 yards, 1 TD
I was probably a little too high on Montgomery heading into the 2019 season. However, the Bears' top returning ball carrier did produce more than 1,000 total yards, and the volume was there. Last season, Montgomery ranked No. 8 in percentage of team carries (61.3%), and we did see an uptick in production down the stretch. After averaging just 3.3 yards per carry in Weeks 1-12, Montgomery pushed that number to 4.3 yards per carry in Weeks 13-17.
While Montgomery will still yield pass-game reps to Tarik Cohen in Chicago, his running traits -- contact balance, wiggle, vision -- are a fit for Matt Nagy's zone schemes. Plus, with the anticipation that we'll see more multiple-TE sets to gain extra gaps in the run game, Montgomery will once again get the volume of a lower-tier RB2/flex. I'm betting on the second-year back playing at a level that is more reflective of his late-season numbers in '19.
Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams
Current ADP: 95.1 (RB29)
Clay's projections: 167 carries, 695 yards, 7 TDs; 22 receptions, 179 yards, 1 TD
With Todd Gurley II now in Atlanta, Akers is on my radar for every mock draft because of his fit in Sean McVay's offense and the potential volume here as the No. 1 in Los Angeles. Yes, Akers will compete with both Malcolm Brown (69 carries, 255 yards rushing, 5 touchdowns in '19) and Darrell Henderson Jr. (39 carries, 147 yards). However, even if the Rams start the season with a committee approach, Akers has the most upside of this group.
Given that the Rams rushed for just 3.74 yards per carry last season (No. 27 in the NFL) and the value of a Rams running back in the screen game, Akers can give this offense a boost. The FSU product can find daylight as a zone runner, and I believe there is much more potential here for the rookie as a pass-catcher. Get him loose on screens in McVay's offense -- which caters to Akers' open-field vision -- and scheme him up on leveled throws in the flat. He's a target for me as a lower-tier RB2 right now.
Ke'Shawn Vaughn, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Current ADP: 128.0 (RB36)
Clay's projections: 154 carries, 647 yards, 4 TDs; 28 receptions, 209 yards, 1 TD
Vaughn has the pro frame and downhill running style to push the ball between the tackles in the NFL. There's some big-play ability here too, as Vaughn produced 12 explosive-play runs at Vanderbilt last season. However, I'm looking at Vaughn in my mocks because of the receiving potential he brings to a Tampa offense that should adapt to the throwing traits of veteran quarterback Tom Brady.
Last season, Brady completed 119 passes to running backs in New England, second most in the NFL. Screens, swings, flats, unders. Get the ball out on schemed concepts. With the expectation that Bucs coach Bruce Arians will use the running back more in 2020 as a receiving target, Vaughn has the skills to see volume in the passing game. And that's why he has more upside than Ronald Jones II this season in Tampa.
Jordan Howard, Miami Dolphins
Current ADP: 131.5 (RB38)
Clay's projections: 171 carries, 733 yards, 6 TDs; 21 receptions, 156 yards, 1 TD
Howard has a higher ceiling in non-PPR formats, given his limited pass-game volume, and Miami did trade for veteran running back Matt Breida. But looking at Howard's current ADP, along with the scoring upside he brings to your lineup, I'm targeting the former Eagle in all my mock drafts.
Since 2017, Howard has 24 touchdown runs. That's the eighth most in the NFL. He's a downhill runner, with the vision and footwork to find cutback lanes or daylight. And given the injury concerns with Matt Breida -- who has missed six games over the past two seasons -- Howard could see more anticipated volume on a Miami squad that is improving.
Zack Moss, Buffalo Bills
Current ADP: 161.2 (RB46)
Clay's projections: 144 carries, 602 yards, 4 TDs; 19 receptions, 149 yards, 1 TD
Devin Singletary will enter the season as the Bills' No. 1 running back, but don't sleep on Moss' early impact potential, given his physical running traits and tackle-breaking ability. At Utah last season, Moss averaged 4.0 yards per rush after first contact while breaking 53 tackles. Defenders had better get their pads down when Moss gets through the second level of the defense.
Given his size (5-foot-9, 223 pounds) and those traits we just talked about, Moss could emerge as the primary short-yardage and goal-line back in a run-heavy Buffalo system. And while the Bills will use quarterback Josh Allen on designed run concepts in scoring position, Moss has the physical makeup here as a flex option with non-PPR upside.
Anthony McFarland Jr., Pittsburgh Steelers
Current ADP: 169.7 (RB57)
Clay's projections: 89 carries, 369 yards, 2 TDs; 9 receptions, 67 yards, 0 TDs
McFarland is one of my sleeper picks this season because he gives the Steelers backfield much-needed juice. And it's all over his college tape. During his final two seasons at Maryland, McFarland produced 30 explosive-play runs while averaging 6.73 yards per carry. He can scoot.
Sure, McFarland joins a pretty crowded running back room in Pittsburgh. But given that James Conner has yet to play a full NFL season -- and has missed 11 games over his past two years -- why not take a flier on McFarland late? He has big-play ability as a runner, and I saw enough on his tape to believe he can impact the passing game for a team that will score points this season with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger healthy.