I always look forward to the first fantasy football mock draft of the season, but this one, in the very first week of an awkwardly distanced May none of us have seen before, felt a bit different, and not just because we were all zooming and bragging about our picks in solitude for the Fantasy Focus Football podcast. Yeah, I miss sports. You miss sports. We all do, and participating in any mock is not only a reminder but also hopefully a precursor to normalcy. Oh, and I want to see what D'Andre Swift can do right now!
OK, enough wasting time. The first mock of the season is always a bit fascinating to me, for while most of the basic gospel themes for fantasy football we can repeat annually -- waiting on quarterback, enjoying wide receiver depth, etc. -- this one surprised me just a tad. Perhaps what I thought I knew might not work in 2020? Perhaps I just need to partake in about a dozen more of these to see what works and does not work for me. Yeah, that sounds good.
Here are all the picks.
Random thoughts on this mock
-- I love having consecutive draft picks in any draft, real or practice, but the way the first round or two shakes out for 2020 might alter things a bit. I drew the coveted No. 12 pick in this PPR model, and the way I look at picking last in any draft is I get two of the top 13 players. I want it. If I cannot pick first, go last, then narrow my choices down to three players and select two of them, and care not about draft runs I miss on. Who worries about not picking again for 23 picks? Gimme the consecutive ones!
My problem here was, I hate to admit, looking silly and passing on awesome wide receivers Julio Jones and/or Tyreek Hill when they somehow fell to me to end Round 1. Travis Kelce, Derrick Henry and Joe Mixon were the three picks before me, which I found odd. I would not take any of them in Round 1. How can I pass on Jones or Hill? I wanted a running back -- I was going back and forth on Aaron Jones versus Austin Ekeler -- but I would never ignore the better fantasy option for my first picks. Yes, all have established how wide receiver is deep and running back is not, but it is dangerous to predicate early picks -- in any draft -- on filling a certain position. Take the top flex-eligible players. I did, and neither plays running back.
-- Of course, 10 minutes later I could see how I might have a problem at running back, as the lack of "safe" depth here is even more fraught than I recall from previous seasons. How one views the term "safe" when applied to any fantasy option is obviously problematic for each of us. Should I have chosen Ekeler over Hill? Would that not look ridiculous and be a poor way to construct a team? I should not care "how it looks" but that was my thought, and I should follow my rankings, at least early. ESPN colleague Daniel Dopp noted on the zoom how this is what mocks are for, to test and try out theories. It is why he chose a quarterback -- and perhaps not the right one -- in Round 2. See how your team looks. I am not sure I liked mine after passing on a running back early, and that was an odd feeling.
-- I convinced myself into believing the Melvin Gordon pick to start Round 4 was justified. My other pick at that turn was JuJu Smith-Schuster, which I liked more. If I had chosen Ekeler at pick 13, I could have passed on Gordon and grabbed his teammate Courtland Sutton, who I do think is a better fantasy option than Gordon is. It is tough to justify wide receivers with all of one's first four picks, when one can have only three active at one time. I would take Gordon over Le'Veon Bell and Todd Gurley II, and those more controversial fellows went already, making my decision easy. Gordon was the final one in what I view as that tier. Is it not odd how we like a player more after we draft him, even in a league that will not play out? I certainly can make the case for the established Gordon, but as my first running back I feel unsettled that I have to.
-- As hinted at prior, Dopp chose Ravens star Lamar Jackson in Round 2, fully noting he might not do so in a league that counts. The reason I pass on QBs so early is not that Jackson or Patrick Mahomes are not awesome. They are! Rather, it is about the missed opportunity cost of the running back or receiver one does not procure then, and the value of quarterbacks later. The talent at those flex-eligible spots dries up early. Reasonable quarterbacks last. Anyway, so Jackson goes at pick No. 17, but Mahomes falls to pick No. 40. How does that make sense? I might be the only one ranking Mahomes first at quarterback -- though others maintain it is "close" -- but even in this crew, I presumed the difference in this or any mock would be smaller. Quarterback No. 3 went with the final choice of Round 6, and it started a sensible mini-run.
-- Everyone loves and generally overrates the rookie running backs, but I certainly hoped Philly and Georgia product Swift would fall to me. I figured to go running back at the Round 5/6 turn here, unless an obvious receiver fell that far. My selections showed how we all have some level of bias when we go only "partly in" for decisions. For example, I could have chosen two rookies here, or two veterans holding off rookies, or avoided situations of this ilk altogether. The first rookie runner went 35 picks prior to this pick, which makes little sense. I happen to believe Swift will dominate right away, and he is so much better than unexciting Lions incumbent Kerryon Johnson. In addition, I chose Mark Ingram II, who was a top-10 fantasy running back in 2019 -- because the Ravens are, in my belief, in a different position to let their rookie J.K. Dobbins learn and then dominate in his second season. Nobody knows for sure, but even in a mock, I felt it risky to take consecutive rookies. Bias! Of course, Ke'Shawn Vaughn in Tampa went with the next pick!
-- By the seventh round, I was intent on adding running back and receiver depth, and seeing how long I could wait at quarterback and tight end. I was surprised and disappointed by how that went. Oh, I like James White (underrated, still), Phillip Lindsay (Denver handcuff), Darius Slayton, John Brown, Anthony Miller and Hunter Renfrow (breakout!), but all teams had a quarterback when I wanted mine in Round 13, and several teams had multiples, which is not typical in this group. A plan of waiting at quarterback only works if you still see fantasy starters lingering. I did not. I like Cincinnati rookie Joe Burrow, but as with Daniel Jones, not as a fantasy starter right away. All the others were gone, and were gone two rounds prior. I should have passed up Brown or Miller for Aaron Rodgers or Carson Wentz, and will in a draft that counts. It is a mock. It is about practice.
-- Things were even grimmer at tight end. Why are my colleagues doubling up there? In addition, do I even trust 12 tight ends to be fantasy starters? It turns out that actually is my real problem, so in future mocks I will secure a tight end earlier, perhaps Hunter Henry or Austin Hooper by Round 8. By the way, even in drafts that count, I am likely to bypass a backup selection at both quarterback and tight end. Anyway, I took Burrow in Round 13, pick No. 156 -- and there will be a useful fantasy quarterback or three on free agency, but we will find out which ones in mid-September -- but all the reasonable fantasy tight ends were also gone by then. I waited longer and grabbed the Bills D/ST, first of its kind off the board. Who am I? What am I doing? It made sense. Why grab Chris Herndon or Eric Ebron then? I got Ebron anyway 23 picks later. Sigh.
This mock was fun and left me wondering about a few things, most of all whether I can still wait that long at quarterback and tight end, or do I need 10 more mocks to know for sure? Is the running back depth so pathetic that I must alter my rankings, grab one in the first two rounds, and will I build around rookies, when we know how dangerous that can be? Am I simply too stubborn in my beliefs and not adaptable to change? I sure hope not. I am quite certain I need to move up some of the running backs in my rankings, in relation to receivers, including Swift. It takes a mock to know how you really feel about players, when push comes to shove, and my rankings need to reflect it, which is why they are always changing.