Last year, there was no question who the first QB off the board in fantasy football drafts should be, as Patrick Mahomes was the clear choice. This year, though, it's a question worth asking. And if you're going to take a QB early on, when should you do it?
The ESPN Fantasy Football virtual summit highlighted many key storylines as we look forward to 2020 fantasy football drafts. Our composite rankings, which will be updated throughout the offseason, are always a great starting point as you prepare for draft day. But in order to give you a peek behind the curtain for some of our best discussions, we introduce our fantasy football roundtable series.
Each entry will feature members of our ESPN Fantasy team offering their analysis on the hottest topics that came out of this year's summit, which will hopefully get you thinking about how you want to approach your drafts in the months ahead.
Who should be the first QB off the board and when should he be taken?
Stephania Bell: Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
His dynamic ability with the ball in his hands makes him a true dual threat. He'll be taken too early for my liking (imagine it will be as early as the second round), but I think he warrants a late-third or early-fourth-round pick.
Matthew Berry: Lamar Jackson
It's Jackson for me, and he's a fringe-top-20 pick (late second, early third round). It's very close with Mahomes, but let's say Jackson regresses in 2020; his numbers from last season could regress by 22.7% and Jackson would still have been QB1 on a per-game basis. For reference, Mahomes regressed by 21.4% from 2018 to 2019. So Jackson could do that -- and then some -- and still be worth being the first QB drafted.
Matt Bowen: Lamar Jackson
Mahomes could be the pick here, and I think both quarterbacks come off the board in that third- or fourth-round range, if I'm making the pick. But I'll stick with Jackson given his dynamic running traits, plus a Baltimore offense that creates conflict for opposing defenses in the red zone. Last season, Jackson rushed for 1,206 yards and seven scores, while throwing 24 of his 36 touchdown passes inside the 20-yard line.
Mike Clay: Lamar Jackson
We haven't seen a repeat No. 1-scoring fantasy quarterback since 2004 and Jackson is a strong bet for touchdown regression, but we also can't pretend this isn't a unique situation. Jackson's rushing prowess is literally historic. He put a 176/1,206/7 rushing line on the board last season en route to scoring 78 more fantasy points than any other quarterback. Especially with an improved group of weapons, Jackson is still your top bet, but I would wait until Round 3.
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Lamar Jackson
It won't be me who gets him, though, and if you're one of those taking him in the top 30 overall, you're doing yourself a disservice. No matter how much you regress Jackson's 2019 numbers, it would take a severe drop in rushing volume for him to lose enough fantasy points to fall back to the rest of the positional field. I want to take Patrick Mahomes first -- and certainly prefer him in terms of value -- but can't statistically justify it.
Daniel Dopp: Lamar Jackson.
What Lamar did last season was unreal. How anyone's supposed to quantify what a follow-up season would look like is beyond me. (I'm looking at you, Mike Clay). Here's what I do know: His rushing statistics are a fantasy cheat code, and let's not pretend his passing game wasn't on point. He finished with more than 3,100 yards passing, 36 TDs and only six INTs. Add in the 1,200 rushing yards and seven more TDs and it's clear to me he's the No. 1 fantasy QB, worth taking in the early third round.
Eric Karabell: Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Sometimes I like to play contrarian just because, but this time I actually would take Mahomes over Jackson, because I see less danger for the former (the pure passer) than the latter (the exciting runner), and I think if either of their MVP seasons returns, it is more likely to be the Mahomes one. I'm waiting until Round a Million to take a QB anyway, so I won't get either of them, but if I was so inclined, based on how running QBs have historically fared in follow-up seasons, I would take Mahomes.
Field Yates: Lamar Jackson
Lamar Jackson is the pick and I'm having a hard time saying when he should go. Here's the reality: Where he'll go will depend on what type of league you're playing in. On average, I suspect that will be in the second round, but given my affinity for patience at quarterback, I'd wait until at least the back end of the third round to even consider a quarterback.