Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson solidified his case for NFL MVP honors on Sunday when he threw three TD passes and ran for more than 100 yards in a comeback win at Cleveland. In doing so, his team clinched the No. 1 AFC seed for the playoffs. Hey, good for Jackson and his Ravens, whose primary goal is to play in the Super Bowl in February, but bad for fantasy managers relying on Jackson (and other Ravens) for Week 17. The Ravens will likely bench most of their key players for their now-meaningless regular-season finale against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Many fantasy leagues crown their champions prior to Week 17 because of this very scenario, in which some of the top players for four months simply sit out the final week of the season, so it is eminently possible that tonight's Green Bay Packers-Minnesota Vikings tilt on ESPN ends your fantasy season(s). That game matters, and those teams should have something to play for in Week 17 as well, since nary an NFC playoff seed is as of yet official. In fact, even though only two overall playoff spots remain unclear (NFC East winner, the second AFC wild card), most teams still have something important on the line, thus the top players will play. This is good for fantasy managers.
The lone Week 17 matchup between secure playoff teams is the final one on Sunday night, as the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks meet again, with the NFC West title, a bye week and, potentially, the No. 1 seed all on the line. It matters. Seattle won the first meeting by a field goal at the overtime buzzer 27-24. Since then, the main thing that has changed for these teams for fantasy purposes is the starting running backs. For the 49ers, Raheem Mostert has emerged as a key fantasy asset over Tevin Coleman. Mostert enters the rematch with touchdowns in five consecutive games and a worthy flex role in most leagues, at the least.
For the Seahawks, both Chris Carson (hip) and C.J. Prosise (arm) left Sunday's stunning loss to the Cardinals with what are now being termed season-ending injuries. Since Rashaad Penny (knee) is already on injured reserve, that leaves rookie Travis Homer as the next in line. Homer, a sixth-round pick in the 2019 draft from Miami (Fla.), entered Week 16 with three rushing attempts this season. Running on the 49ers is a bit of a challenge, so Homer seems unlikely to warrant more than modest flex appeal for Week 17. Then again, who thought Minnesota's Mike Boone would matter at this point? Carson entered Week 16 as a top-10 PPR running back for the season, but now his season is over.
Another piece of advice for fantasy managers is that while you should absolutely avoid Ravens players and follow the news closely to see if any other stars sit out -- Todd Gurley II seems like an obvious one, as is Kyler Murray -- you should also be careful not to forget about those players on, shall we say, lesser teams. The Miami Dolphins outlasted the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday in overtime, and QBs Ryan Fitzpatrick and Andy Dalton combined for more than 800 passing yards and eight TD passes. No players scored more fantasy points this week than the New York Giants duo of Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones, as the latter returned after a two-week absence from an ankle sprain to drop five TD passes on Washington.
As a result, while watching Russell Wilson take on Jimmy Garoppolo this coming Sunday night should be a blast, Atlanta's Matt Ryan versus Tampa Bay's Jameis Winston could easily result in more fantasy points for all involved, even though one of those quarterbacks struggled in Week 16. The Bengals' Dalton did little statistically in the first meeting of Ohio franchises in Week 14, but that seems irrelevant today after how well he just played. Cleveland's erratic passing game should thrive. Fitzpatrick boasts multiple top-10 fantasy performances in the past month but he hits the road to New England this weekend, and the Patriots want the No. 2 seed and the bye week. Matchups matter, and so does the news. You might find yourself relying on some new names in this final rodeo.
Here are more fantasy themes to watch in Week 17.
A lot of this and a lot of that
The aforementioned Mr. Winston might have cost his fantasy managers their Week 16 matchups with his four interceptions on Saturday against Houston, but the last time he faced Ryan's Falcons, he scored 24.3 PPR points. Winston, incredibly, could become the first quarterback in history to reach 30 touchdown passes and 30 interceptions in the same season. He should also surpass 5,000 passing yards with ease. In fantasy baseball, we love the 30-homer, 30-steal options, but stolen bases are a positive statistic. Interceptions? Well, not so much.
Winston had never before thrown even 20 picks in a season. With his passing yards and touchdowns, he might have finished as fantasy's No. 2 quarterback had he taken better care of the football. He still should end up a top-five option, which hints at the potential. Fantasy managers who relied on Winston this season should be well aware of the pros and cons to his erratic ways, but again, for Week 17, all that matters is the positive matchup. It would seem like "typical Winston" for him to follow up his disappointing Week 16 effort (11 PPR points) with a terrific game. If so, then fantasy managers will remember his 2020 season quite differently.
Penn State reunion
Those who selected Barkley with the No. 1 overall pick this season might be disappointed in the Penn State product, but if you made it to Week 16 with him, you had to love his performance -- a career-best 43.9 PPR points. Barkley's top backup in his final season with the Nittany Lions was Miles Sanders, and these pals meet again in Week 17, with the Eagles in line to win the NFC East with either a victory or a Dallas loss to Washington. Sanders scored 26.6 PPR points in the home win over Dallas on Sunday, one week after ripping Washington for 35.2 points. Sanders is getting plenty of volume with Jordan Howard out of the lineup. Barkley remains the better option, but Sanders warrants RB1 attention for the Week 17 game.
Incidentally, Sanders surged past Oakland Raiders RB Josh Jacobs for the most PPR points among first-year non-quarterbacks on Sunday, as Jacobs sat out the game with a fractured shoulder. He might play in Week 17 since the Raiders still have an outside chance at the final AFC playoff berth. WRs A.J. Brown (Titans), Terry McLaurin (Redskins), Deebo Samuel (49ers) and DK Metcalf (Seahawks), as well as Bills RB Devin Singletary also enter Week 17 with a shot at top rookie PPR scoring honors among the flex-eligible set. Arizona's Kyler Murray will finish as fantasy's top rookie quarterback, even if his season is over due to the hamstring injury he suffered on Sunday.
Fantasy's forgotten MVP
Meanwhile, Carolina Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey could sit out Week 17 -- there's no indication he will sit out, so don't panic! -- and still finish with the most overall PPR fantasy points. New Orleans Saints WR Michael Thomas will win top honors at his position. These fellows have been magnificent, with McCaffrey surpassing 100 catches for the second time in three seasons and Thomas breaking Marvin Harrison's record for receptions in a season with his 12 catches on Sunday. Which one is fantasy's MVP? Well, as the Nos. 2 and 6 selections in ESPN average live drafts, I would argue neither. We expected greatness and got it. Lamar Jackson fell outside the top-10 quarterbacks in drafts prior to Week 1, and will finish as the top scorer at his position, but it's a position deep in usable options, too. Still, he has played significantly better than any other quarterback this season.
For the honor of fantasy MVP, I tend to side with flex-eligible options chosen in the mid-to-late rounds (or even later). So many managers have to dig deep for a relevant running back or wide receiver to activate in bye weeks or even in December, when the likes of David Johnson had long ceased being worth it. By that measure, Los Angeles Chargers RB Austin Ekeler might have already clinched the award. Ekeler was available well after the seventh round of most drafts, and since Vikings RB Dalvin Cook and Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin seem unlikely to play in Week 17, Ekeler could finish as the No. 2 RB and the No. 3 flex option (behind only McCaffrey and Thomas) in PPR leagues. Even if you decide to bestow MVP honors on McCaffrey, Thomas or Jackson, it has still been an amazing for Ekeler, and that shouldn't go unnoticed.