Matchups play a huge part in fantasy managers' weekly lineup decisions. When choosing between two (or more) similarly talented players, the decision often boils down to: Which player has the best matchup?
We use that word -- matchups -- a lot. But what, exactly, constitutes a favorable or unfavorable matchup?
This is where the "Matchups Map" comes in. Each week, I'll provide a schedule-independent method to determine strength of positional matchups, using the most recent, relevant data. Check back for updated numbers each week, including matchup highlights at each position -- both favorable and unfavorable -- based upon those statistics. For these purposes, we will use PPR (point per reception) scoring.
The maps include two measures: The first, "Rk," is my personal ranking of how favorable/unfavorable I consider that positional matchup; the second, "Adj. FPA," reflects how far above or below a player's average that defense held opponents at that position. All data is from the past five weeks of NFL action.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited; not every unfavorable matchup should be avoided. To get the most complete recipe for whom to start and sit, consult my weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Favorable matchup: Ryan Tannehill, Titans (versus Texans). Before we even get into the matchup, familiarize yourself with the degree of success that Tannehill has enjoyed since taking over the Titans' starting job in Week 7. During that eight-week span, his 154.3 fantasy points rank sixth among all players in the NFL. There's certainly regression in his future -- though perhaps in 2020, rather than the rest of 2019 -- but because he's a capable contributor with his legs, having averaged 4.6 fantasy points on rushing plays during that same time span, his weekly statistical floor is elevated. That makes him one of the safer matchup-oriented playoff picks. The Texans are the seventh-most-favorable QB matchup (2.9 adjusted fantasy points added), and fourth-best over the past five weeks (4.3), having allowed 24.3 fantasy points to Tom Brady and another 23.9 to rookie Drew Lock (making his second career NFL start, at that) in the past two weeks.
Unfavorable matchup: Aaron Rodgers, Packers (versus Bears). Almost three and a half months later, we finally get the rematch of Rodgers versus the Bears, the 2019 NFL Kickoff game during which essentially nothing exciting happened for fantasy. In the 13 weeks since, the Bears lost DT Akiem Hicks to an elbow injury for nine games -- which played a large part in the team performing among the worst in the league against the run during that time -- and then cornerback Prince Amukamara to a hamstring injury in the Thanksgiving game. Both are expected back on Sunday, but even without them, the Bears have performed excellently against the pass all year. They're the only defense not to have allowed a 20-point QB fantasy performance. The Bears have also had Rodgers' number in many of their recent meetings, limiting him to an average of 17.6 fantasy points in his past seven games against them -- and keeping him below 15 points in each of their past two head-to-head matchups.
Running backs
Favorable matchup: Josh Jacobs/DeAndre Washington, Raiders (versus Jaguars). Consider this not only encouragement for Jacobs' managers who might worry about his Week 14 absence due to a shoulder injury but also a plug-and-play endorsement for Washington should Jacobs ultimately be unable to go. Jacobs is expected to be available on Sunday, but even if he's limited while playing the remainder of his season with a shoulder fracture, this matchup elevates his fantasy potential enough that you might not notice any limitation at all.
The Jaguars have allowed six individual running backs to score 15-plus PPR fantasy points against them in the past four weeks alone, not to mention 86 more rushing yards than any other team during that same time span. This defense struggles mightily on runs up the middle, allowing 225 yards and five scores on those plays over the past four weeks. That plays well to Jacobs' strengths. He totaled 33 carries for 154 yards and four touchdowns on runs up the middle in what were his three best fantasy performances (Weeks 1, 5 and 10). Washington, meanwhile, played on 63% of the Raiders' offensive snaps and had 20 touches in Jacobs' absence in Week 14, also generating 10.0 of his 21.6 PPR fantasy points on runs up the middle. Washington is the clear choice if Jacobs sits again.
Unfavorable matchup: Devonta Freeman, Falcons (at 49ers). Three weeks removed from a multiweek absence for a foot injury, Freeman is somewhat difficult to trust, even after getting 21 touches for a third consecutive game. He's going to need that kind of workload to make a fantasy impact in Week 15, considering the opposing 49ers have given up only four games of 15-plus fantasy points to a running back all season. Look at what the past three starting running backs did against the 49ers: Aaron Jones scored 3.8 fantasy points in Week 12, Mark Ingram II scored 8.2 in Week 13 and Alvin Kamara scored 6.3 in Week 14.
Wide receivers
Favorable matchup: Darius Slayton, Giants (versus Dolphins). He has enjoyed a great below-the-radar rookie campaign, with a pair of 30-point performances in the past five weeks alone, most recently scoring 32.4 in Week 14 in a game started by Eli Manning. Manning and Slayton showed remarkably good chemistry following New York's QB change, and Manning is expected to get another start on Sunday while rookie Daniel Jones continues to nurse a high ankle sprain (though he did make a brief appearance at Wednesday's practice). This is a great matchup for the two to thrive in once more; in the past five weeks alone, the Dolphins have allowed the fifth-most WR points per game (42.3), as well as the fourth-most points to perimeter receivers (28.6).
Unfavorable matchup: John Brown, Bills (at Steelers). Buffalo's brutal December schedule continues with this matchup against a Steelers defense that hasn't allowed a 20-point performance to a wide receiver since Week 1 (Phillip Dorsett II, 25.5). In the past five weeks alone, perimeter receivers Robert Woods (16.5 points, Week 10), Odell Beckham Jr. (10.0, Week 11, and 5.9, Week 13), Auden Tate (2.0, Week 12) and Christian Kirk (16.9, Week 14) have had relatively quiet performances, with slot receivers being the ones receiving the greater benefit because of their matchup against Mike Hilton. Brown has fallen prey to his toughest matchups in recent weeks, totaling 17.5 points against the Broncos and Ravens in Weeks 12 and 14, limiting his appeal here to the WR3 tier at best.
Tight ends
Favorable matchup: David Njoku, Browns (at Cardinals). The Cardinals remain the game's one true automatic among TE matchups, sporting by far the league's highest totals in terms of total points allowed to the position (256.1), points per target (2.4) and the number of 15-point games against (8). Arizona simply isn't getting the production necessary from its linebackers, especially Jordan Hicks and Haason Reddick, with the latter being limited to only five defensive snaps in Week 14 because of his season-long struggles. Njoku is one game removed from a broken wrist, playing on only 38% of the Browns' offensive snaps while seeing three targets in his return to action. Still, he should see his volume inch upwards in what's an extremely high-upside playoff-week matchup.
Unfavorable matchup: Jason Witten, Cowboys (versus Rams). There aren't a lot of must-avoid tight ends this week. It's very much a "start the guys who got you here" kind of position, considering the available talent pool. Witten goes up against the Rams in one of the few must-avoid matchups; no other defense has limited tight ends more over the past five weeks in terms of fantasy points per game (5.7). This defense held Mark Andrews to 6.5 points on three targets in Week 12 and Jacob Hollister to 7.4 points on six targets in Week 14.