Success in daily fantasy comes down to your ability to find value, identify players in great matchups and maximize the relationships among the players on your roster (otherwise known as correlation). In other words, what are the week's best buys?
Each week, I'll go through every position and give you a few players I'm considering for my head-to-head lineups -- usually players who are getting as much volume as possible while also coming in at value prices. I'll also include some players I'm considering for my tournament pool. And while things may change from the time I write this article until game time, I'll do what I can to keep people updated on my various social media channels all the way up until kickoff on Sunday.
Quarterbacks
Deshaun Watson ($6,800 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel), Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans: Even in a lopsided loss, Watson posted huge numbers last week. I don't always like to go to the same players on a week-in, week-out basis -- and it feels like I've written up Watson more weeks than not this season. Still, he just keeps popping for me as a player with a tournament-winning ceiling. Tennessee has seen quite a revival on offense with Ryan Tannehill under center and, as a result, Titans opponents are passing 38.1 times per game -- the third-highest rate in the league. Going back to last season in their two meetings, Watson compiled 520 passing yards and 114 rushing yards against the Titans. This game has some high-scoring potential. If that comes to fruition, Watson-stacked lineups will be hard to beat on Sunday.
Jimmy Garoppolo ($6,100 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel), San Francisco 49ers vs. Atlanta Falcons: Garoppolo has been a fantasy yo-yo in 2019, but some of his best weeks have come as a result of teams that didn't apply much pressure on him. Garoppolo is averaging 46.2% more yards per pass attempt when not pressured and the Falcons create pressure on the opposing quarterback at the lowest rate in the league (20.1%). Coming off a massive week in New Orleans in the highest-scoring game of the season, Garoppolo now gets to face those Falcons, whom we've been targeting with passing attacks all season long.
Also interested in
Jared Goff ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel), Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys: Dallas has allowed 25-plus points on the NFL scoreboard in four of its past five games. Since the beginning of last season, Goff has either hit the yardage bonus or thrown multiple TD passes in 16 of 20 games in which the Rams scored 25-plus points.
Kyler Murray ($5,600 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel), Arizona Cardinals vs. Cleveland Browns: The top five games versus Cleveland this season have come from quarterbacks who ran for at least 24 yards (Russell Wilson, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Marcus Mariota and Ryan Fitzpatrick). That bodes well for Murray's chances for Week 15 success.
Running backs
Saquon Barkley ($7,700 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel), New York Giants vs. Miami Dolphins: Barkley isn't having the sort of year that we had all imagined for him during draft month, but DFS football is a week-to-week game. The matchup that has been extremely giving all season long has been the Dolphins -- and here they are. The Dolphins have given up the sixth-most RB DraftKings points and 110.5 rushing yards to the position over the past four weeks. Miami is also allowing the second-most yards per carry before first contact, which could bring Barkley's big-play ability back into action this week. That's the thing that we've been missing the most from him in 2019.
Chris Carson ($7,500 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel), Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers: Carson has been seeing great volume all season, but in the past few weeks, Rashaad Penny was starting to eat into his workload. With Penny now being placed on injured reserve, all that volume flows back to Carson. It's just in time for an amazing matchup against the Panthers, who have allowed 28.3 RB touches and 142.8 rushing yards per game to the position over the past four weeks. Carolina is also allowing the second-most red zone drives per game and has allowed a league-high 13 carries to go for 25-plus yards this season. There's a great floor here as a result of the expected volume, outstanding TD equity, and a tremendous matchup.
Patrick Laird ($4,500 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel), Miami Dolphins at New York Giants: A cult hero to some, and a viable Week 15 running back to many, Laird has certainly carved out a space in the DFS world. The amount of volume he gets in the Miami backfield is very friendly to DraftKings' full-PPR setup and has resulted in 10 targets (eight catches) over the past two weeks. The Dolphins typically aren't projected to score as many points as they are this week. With that increased scoring opportunity and at this low a cost, Laird presents a viable value source for Week 15.
Also interested in
Christian McCaffrey ($10,000 DraftKings, $10,400 FanDuel), Carolina Panthers vs. Seattle Seahawks: Seattle is allowing a touchdown on 4.9% of RB carries. That's the third-highest rate in the NFL. McCaffrey is the only player in the league with at least 130 total yards in 10 different games this season.
Raheem Mostert ($5,200 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel), San Francisco 49ers vs. Atlanta Falcons: Since his merit-based promotion for the 49ers, Mostert has seen 29 carries for 215 yards and two touchdowns -- with an average of 4.8 yards before contact per carry. Since Week 4, the Falcons are allowing the sixth-most yards before contact in the league.
Wide receivers
Julian Edelman ($7,100 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel), New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals: I think we're going to see less traffic on Edelman this week, based on the defense-versus-position matchup and the narrative that New England won't have to pass much to beat the Bengals. However, Edelman's volume has been otherworldly this year and that's led to a very productive season. He's now had eight straight games with double-digit targets, which is the longest such streak since 2015, when Antonio Brown had a run of 12 games in a row. Edelman has either hit the 100-yard bonus on DraftKings or scored a touchdown in three of the past four games where the Patriots scored 22-plus points. They are projected to put 25 points on the scoreboard this week.
Robert Woods ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel), Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys: Woods has taken a massive step forward over the past month, mostly due to the reduced snaps that Cooper Kupp has been playing. With four straight games of 95-plus receiving yards -- second only to Michael Thomas' five week streak from Weeks 7-12 -- Woods has been ridiculously consistent. His increase in usage in the red zone is also promising, as he's had four red zone targets over the past two weeks after only seeing three for the entire season prior to that.
Also interested in
Jarvis Landry ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel), Cleveland Browns at Arizona Cardinals: Arizona is allowing a league-high 4.2 red zone drives per game and Landry has seen a massive 30% of the Browns' red zone targets this season. He's also averaging a career-high 14.4 yards per catch on 9.5 air yards per target this season, compared to the 6.3 he saw in his final season with Miami.
Greg Ward Jr. ($3,000 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel), Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins: Injuries always open up spots and the NFL is very much a "next man up" league. With all the injuries the Eagles have sustained at receiver, Ward played on a career-high 77 snaps and saw nine targets in Week 14. It's hard for him to fail at the absolute minimum salary in full PPR. There is actually a ton of value to be found at wide receiver for $3,600 and below on DraftKings this week, but Ward leads the way.
Tight ends
Travis Kelce ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel), Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos: Kelce hasn't had the ceiling games this year that he's had the past. In fact, he's managed only one game with over 22 DraftKings points in 2019. Even so, he's been tremendously steady every single week. That reliable volume and red zone activity has allowed him to stand out as a solid value, even in the weeks where Patrick Mahomes hasn't had great games. The Broncos have allowed the fifth-most TE receptions per game (5.5) since Week 6. Meanwhile, Kelce has seen eight-plus targets in all but two games this year.
Tyler Higbee ($3,900 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel), Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys: Higbee has really come on strong lately, but it has been a result of a change in role, partly due to Gerald Everett's injury. The greatly increased volume will sustain both Higbee's volume and production for as long as this lasts. Over the past three games, he has seen 25 targets (6, 8, and 11) after seeing just 27 targets through Week 11. He's also made the absolute most of his new opportunity with 48.3 DraftKings points over the past two weeks, reaching the 100-yard bonus twice.
Also interested in
George Kittle ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel), San Francisco 49ers vs. Atlanta Falcons: On 12 separate occasions this season, a player has seen double-digit targets against the Falcons. Four of those times, the lucky recipient of all that added attention was a tight end.
Defenses
My philosophy for picking defenses in DFS is simple: Defensive touchdowns are extremely difficult to predict. The greatest predictor of defensive scoring is the ability to put pressure on the opposing passer, so I look for teams that have a pressure advantage against an overmatched offensive line. Pressure leads to sacks, fumbles and interceptions, which can turn into touchdowns.
San Francisco 49ers ($3,800 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel), vs. Falcons
Kansas City Chiefs ($3,500 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel), vs. Broncos
Green Bay Packers ($3,000 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel), vs. Bears
Detroit Lions ($2,300 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel), vs. Buccaneers
Disclaimer: Al Zeidenfeld is a promoter and user at DraftKings (Username: Al_Smizzle) and plays on his personal account in games for which he offers advice. These views/strategies are his own and do not reflect the views of DraftKings. He might also deploy different players/strategies than what he advises.