Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens was not a top-10 quarterback -- at least not according to preseason drafts this season. In fact, among those chosen ahead of him were Baker Mayfield, Mitchell Trubisky and Jared Goff. Oops! Most people believed that Jackson, entering his second NFL season, was incapable of throwing the football successfully with any consistency. Thus, they ignored him. This is how so many fantasy managers ended up with Jackson as their initial backup, adding him in the early September weeks and, in time, realizing that he actually needed to be their starter.
Jackson should break the NFL record for rushing yards by a quarterback Thursday night against the New York Jets, and oh, by the way, he will enter Week 15 as fantasy's No. 2 player in scoring -- behind only Carolina Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey. Jackson's 40 rushing yards in Sunday's 24-17 win in Buffalo against the defensive-minded Bills was his lowest output since Week 1. Still, it pushed him gently past 1,000 for the season and puts him a mere 23 yards from breaking Michael Vick's record from back in 2006. Jackson also has 28 TD passes, versus only six interceptions. He should stroll past 3,000 passing yards soon, as well.
It sure seems that Jackson is comfortably in the conversation for MVP consideration in both the NFL and fantasy worlds, despite so many having been skeptical that this fantastic athlete with elite running skills could learn to throw the football with more accuracy than he showed as a rookie. This is one of the top fantasy seasons ever by a quarterback due to the incredible meshing of rushing and passing numbers. Fantasy managers tend to overlook the impact of the former and overrate the importance of the latter. Jackson entered the weekend with fewer passing yards per game than Daniel Jones and Joe Flacco. However, he is ninth among all players in rushing yards, even ahead of his teammate and established veteran Mark Ingram II.
Meanwhile, Buffalo's Josh Allen also entered Week 14 among the top-10 quarterbacks in fantasy thanks to his rushing prowess and eight TD runs. Somehow, the Ravens were able to hold him greatly in check. Meanwhile, Arizona's speedy Kyler Murray -- the first pick in the 2019 NFL draft -- was just one spot behind Allen in QB fantasy scoring ahead of Sunday's action. The passing touchdowns for Allen and Murray pale in comparison to Jackson's this season. Still, they both average more fantasy points than Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Jameis Winston and all but five quarterbacks. More importantly, they are young enough to still improve.
If there is any lesson to be learned here in fantasy, it is that while traditional pocket quarterbacks (even -- and perhaps especially -- older ones like Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees) continue their draft-day popularity over potential stars like Jackson, Allen and Murray, we should always be open to possibilities. Again, nobody saw Jackson achieving quite like this. He struggled throwing the football as a rookie on the rare occasions when the Ravens permitted him to do so downfield, and most believed that defenses would be able to control his running game. They certainly have not. Enjoy watching Jackson in Week 15 and beyond. Remember what he was able to do this season when you debate whether to draft Murray or Brees next season.
Here are more fantasy themes to watch in Week 15.
The Bell tolls for thee
As for the New York Jets, their offense performed capably on Sunday without running back Le'Veon Bell (illness) as they scored enough to edge out the Miami Dolphins. Veteran Bilal Powell filled in and rushed for 74 yards on 19 carries, though he hurt his ankle late in the game and could miss time. Interestingly, Bell's season-best rushing total is just 70 yards, achieved back in Week 7 against the Patriots. He averages only 15 carries per game. Sure, Powell is not close to the receiving threat Bell is, but fantasy managers participating in the opening week of the playoffs knew well enough in advance to bench the inactive Bell. Perhaps many added Powell in his stead. Bell has statistically underachieved this season, but nevertheless has remained a strong RB2 option. It is certainly possible Bell returns for this Thursday night's game. However, because the Ravens are the opponent and teams generally need to throw the ball against them, Bell (or Powell or even Ty Montgomery) seem like less than desirable options anyway.
While Bell has a short week to prepare for Week 15, there are myriad other injury situations to follow this week, most notably at wide receiver. Tampa Bay Buccaneers star Mike Evans -- the No. 3 wide receiver in PPR scoring -- left Sunday's win early with a hamstring strain suffered on a touchdown. His investors should probably prepare for an absence that could end his season. It has been a while since the Minnesota Vikings enjoyed the services of Adam Thielen (hamstring), and the same goes for the Indianapolis Colts and T.Y. Hilton (calf). Fantasy managers keep them rostered for good reason, but only three weeks remain and bench spots are valuable. Pittsburgh Steelers RB James Conner (shoulder) and WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee) could both return this weekend for a tough home game with the Bills.
In touch with touchdowns
Los Angeles Chargers WR Mike Williams entered Week 14 leading all flex-eligible options in PPR points, but with an annoying zero in the touchdown column. In his case, the lack of touchdowns was even more stunning since Williams had scored 11 times last season -- a figure topped by only 13 non-quarterbacks. On Sunday, Williams acrobatically dove at the goal line to haul in a 44-yard scoring pass from Philip Rivers. With Jets veteran Demaryius Thomas also hauling in his first touchdown of the long season on Sunday, that leaves Cincinnati Bengals veteran WR Alex Erickson as the flex option with the most PPR points without a scoring play to his credit, edging out Washington Redskins RB Chris Thompson and Oakland Raiders RB Jalen Richard. Fortunately, these players are not too popular with fantasy managers.
Williams, however, was a popular WR3 option in many preseason drafts, and his struggles remind us all that TD regression is a real thing when previous successes fail to come along with high volume. Williams scored touchdowns on nearly 25% of his touches a season ago. Williams and the Chargers host the Vikings in Week 15. so this seems like a poor time to push the wide receiver -- with only 40 receptions this season -- into fantasy lineups. As for other wide receivers who are catching touchdowns at a higher rate than their targets and/or catches might dictate, look at rookies Marquise Brown (Ravens), DK Metcalf (Seahawks) and Mecole Hardman (Chiefs). Williams should score more than once in 2020, but there are no guarantees.
Atlanta Falcons RB Devonta Freeman also removed the glaring zero from his rushing touchdown total on Sunday -- he has scored three receiving touchdowns -- and did so with his second-best PPR performance of the season. Freeman, expected to be a borderline RB1 this season, has been anything but that. He and his teammates next face a tough Week 15 matchup in San Francisco. Freeman should be a more attractive fantasy option in the final two weeks of the year against the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Buccaneers. Tarik Cohen of the Chicago Bears and J.D. McKissic of the Detroit Lions are the lone top-50 PPR running backs this season without a rushing touchdown, though they have both scored through the air. Perhaps they will change that in Week 15!
Monday madness
New Orleans Saints WR Michael Thomas, still on pace to break the NFL mark for catches in a season, will be on display next Monday on ESPN against the Colts. However, the concerns in fantasy will be about running backs Alvin Kamara and Marlon Mack. There were 94 points put on the scoreboard in the amazing 49ers-Saints game Sunday, and the teams combined for nearly 1,000 yards from scrimmage. Kamara contributed only 43 of them on 17 touches -- with no touchdowns. In fact, the top-five pick from fantasy drafts last scored a touchdown back in Week 3. While he averages 17 PPR fantasy points per game, he has not been an RB1 since the start of October. Should you sit Kamara against the Colts? Not a chance, but like Saquon Barkley, Le'Veon Bell, David Johnson and a host of other first-round fantasy picks, they have not been playing like stars of late.
As for Mack, on Sunday he returned from missing two games with a fractured right hand and scored a rushing touchdown, though he totaled only 38 yards from scrimmage without seeing any receiving targets -- perhaps due to the condition of his hand. The touchdown salvaged his fantasy day, but that effort is not predictive. The 49ers embarrassed the Saints' defense, and now that defense hosts a losing Colts team with a backup quarterback who will likely be missing Hilton. If you decide to bench Mack in fantasy this week, few would argue. Still, you never know.