The top seed in the loaded NFC will be on the line in Week 14 when the San Francisco 49ers travel to New Orleans to face the Saints. Both teams are a solid 10-2 and making a case for conference supremacy. However, think about how different things look for these teams from a fantasy aspect. The Saints boast a Hall of Fame quarterback who last missed finishing among the top 10 at his position in 2003. (Yep, it is true.) They have a beloved top-five running back and the best wide receiver in the sport -- one on a record pace for receptions.
The 49ers have the same record and easily the top scoring differential in the conference. A fantastic defense leads the way, but for skill position options in fantasy, well, there is awesome TE George Kittle and then ... a lack of top, consistent production alongside no clear depth-chart hierarchy. Yes, the 49ers, despite Sunday's 20-17 road defeat at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens (a terrific game in inclement weather and hardly a bad loss) are a bit tough to figure out in fantasy. Perhaps a bit of clarity will come during the big matchup in New Orleans in what is the first week of the fantasy playoffs for most managers.
Consider the QB matchup. We all know what Drew Brees can do, but Jimmy Garoppolo is well outside of the top-10 QB list in fantasy. In fact, he averages fewer fantasy points per game than Andy Dalton, Gardner Minshew -- both of whom played in Week 13 after previously being benched -- and three different Detroit Lions quarterbacks, two of whom might not play again this season. Sure, it's a very small sample size for David Blough. Still, the point is, Garoppolo deserves credit for winning NFL games -- but in our fantasy world, he has reached 15 PPR points only four times in his 12 weeks of action. That's not at all helpful to us, and it certainly does not match how popular he is in the fantasy world.
Then there is RB Tevin Coleman, who was a fantasy star in October during a stint when those Saints were without the injured Alvin Kamara for a few weeks. Since his 4 TD performance in Week 8, Coleman has failed to reach as many as 13 PPR points in any of his last five contests, including Sunday when he turned his six touches into a measly 15 yards. He got to watch backup Raheem Mostert deliver his own career day with 154 total yards and 23.4 PPR points. Mostert, a 27-year-old journeyman, last earned double-digit touches in a game back in September, when Coleman was injured.
We would recommend Mostert (rostered in 14.1% of leagues) for Week 14, except that Coleman surely remains in the picture and Matt Breida (averaging a healthy 5.0 YPC for the second consecutive season) might play in New Orleans after missing three games with an ankle injury. Breida's return would further muddle San Francisco's RB situation. Coleman was active in more than 65% of ESPN standard leagues in Week 13, consistent with his usage over the past month. This seems too generous, as more than a month of rather disappointing data proves he no longer deserves it.
At wide receiver, rookie Deebo Samuel has led the team's corps in PPR points for four consecutive games, but the volume has been lacking of late. Samuel has caught just four passes on six targets over the past two weeks combined, though touchdowns salvaged those performances for fantasy. He is a long way from the Saints' Michael Thomas (who isn't?) and it is always dangerous to rely on touchdowns for fantasy goodness. Meanwhile, Emmanuel Sanders, acquired from Denver in October, has gone four consecutive games falling short of both five receptions and 50 receiving yards. That's a rough combination. While Sanders continues to be active in more ESPN leagues, Samuel sure seems to be the better play moving ahead -- though not necessarily a good play for a road tilt in New Orleans.
What we saw in Sunday's Ravens-49ers game was fun -- two potential Super Bowl squads led by smart players and their smart coaches. This week's Saints-49ers tilt should be similarly entertaining, though with no weather woes. Fantasy managers should always play their best options, whether it is early on in Week 2 or during the playoff-elimination portion of the campaign in December. The Ravens might boast the league MVP. The Saints hardly lack star power. The 49ers deserve their 10 wins, but fantasy managers should not blindly activate their players -- other than Kittle and the D/ST -- without studying the trends. Perhaps Mostert is ready to become a weekly RB2, or Samuel a WR2, but we are just not there yet. In a week, for all we know, we could well be back relying on Coleman and Sanders.
Here are more fantasy themes to watch in Week 14.
Pats versus Pat
Somewhat similar to the 49ers are the mighty New England Patriots, surely playoff-bound but also lacking in consistent fantasy production after their D/ST and WR Julian Edelman. The Patriots will host Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday in a rematch of January's AFC Championship Game, won by Tom Brady and his pals in Missouri. The Patriots' D/ST has been terrific, but after Edelman, few Patriots deserve a fantasy manager's attention on a weekly basis. Brady started the season with 20-point PPR efforts in five out of six weeks, but until quite late in Sunday night's loss in Houston, he had last reached 15 PPR points in Week 8 -- despite numerous positive matchups. Do not activate him simply because you know the name and assume teams tend to throw on the Chiefs.
RB James White had a big Sunday night against the Texans, but produced only a combined 10.5 PPR points in Weeks 11-12, games the Patriots led much of the way. In PPR formats, White is more of a flex option than a definite RB2, while Sony Michel and Rex Burkhead have not been worth playing for a while.
As for the Chiefs, you know Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are valuable fantasy assets. Even against a stifling Patriots defense and even in a one-and-done fantasy playoff matchup, benching any of them in fantasy seems unfathomable. At running back, however, sit all of your Chiefs -- even as we await further injury word on both Damien Williams (ribs) and the unrelated Darrel Williams (hamstring). LeSean McCoy and Darwin Thompson both scored short touchdowns in Sunday's blowout win over the Oakland Raiders, but neither warrants great attention even in fortuitous matchups. The Patriots are not that matchup.
More QB guessing
Denver Broncos rookie Drew Lock became the 54th quarterback to throw for more than 100 passing yards this season, winning in his debut against Philip Rivers and the Los Angeles Chargers. For perspective, 55 quarterbacks surpassed 100 passing yards last season. Lock is surely a lock for more starts, including Week 14 in Houston. Those in multi-QB formats have to think ahead to more potential changes in case of injury or surprise benchings -- even in the fantasy playoffs. For example, there were rumors about Rivers ceding his job to backup Tyrod Taylor, before Rivers played efficiently on Sunday. Perhaps this particular potential change will remain a mere rumor.
For Week 14, the multi-QB format focus should be on the Jacksonville Jaguars, as expensive Nick Foles struggled in Sunday's loss to the defensively woeful Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Marvelous Mr. Minshew handled the second half. Perhaps Foles is hurt again (or maybe he just played like it), but the Jaguars host the Chargers this Sunday so it is not perfectly clear as to which quarterbacks will finish this game of noncontenders. Desperate fantasy managers should also keep an eye on situations involving the Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, Cleveland Browns, Indianapolis Colts and New York Jets, as signal callers for those teams either struggled in Week 13 or battled an injury.
Monday madness
A pair of losing NFC East teams meet up on Monday Night Football, as the Philadelphia Eagles host the New York Giants. The home team still has a reasonable chance at the division title -- but only because the Dallas Cowboys (who play this Thursday in Chicago) have also failed to win more than they have lost. Eagles QB Carson Wentz bounced back from several disappointing statistical efforts with 24.4 PPR points -- his best effort since Week 1 -- in the stunning loss to the Miami Dolphins. Fantasy managers should count on veteran WR Alshon Jeffery in Week 14 as well. Jeffery just returned from a multiweek absence with a season-best 28.7 PPR points. He'll face a struggling Giants defense that permitted four TD passes in Sunday's loss to the Green Bay Packers.
On the Giants side, Saquon Barkley investors can whine about the No. 1 overall choice in most fantasy drafts having disappointed for much of his second season, but he did surpass 100 total yards against the Packers. When we reveal the top busts of the season, his name will be nowhere near the top of the list, even though he last scored a touchdown in Week 8. It is hard to imagine a fantasy manager boasting two better RB options than Barkley in this or any week. One could also make the case for several Giants wide receivers against a porous Eagles defense that permitted Ryan Fitzpatrick and DeVante Parker to act like Montana-to-Rice, starting with Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton. We also await word on Golden Tate (concussion). In other words, the Eagles and Giants are not good teams, but this could be an exciting game for passing numbers.