Success in daily fantasy comes down to your ability to find value, identify players in great matchups and maximize the relationships among the players on your roster (otherwise known as correlation). In other words, what are the week's best buys?
Each week, I'll go through every position and give you a few players I'm considering for my head-to-head lineups -- usually players who are getting as much volume as possible while also coming in at value prices. I'll also include some players I'm considering for my tournament pool. And while things may change from the time I write this article until game time, I'll do what I can to keep people updated on my various social media channels all the way up until kickoff on Sunday.
Quarterbacks
Russell Wilson ($7,100 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel), Seattle Seahawks vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Wilson is in the best spot of all the high-priced quarterbacks, due to a matchup with the Buccaneers. Usually, the problem with selecting Wilson is that the Seahawks have a proclivity for limiting his passing attempts to under 30 per game. They're very much a run-first offense, but they might not be able to do that against a Tampa Bay defense that is amazing against the run but pretty terrible at defending the pass. I'm banking on 35-plus attempts from Wilson here.
Derek Carr ($5,500 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel), Oakland Raiders vs. Detroit Lions: There's always a quarterback who is priced just a little bit too low compared to where he should rank on the week when you consider recent performance and the upcoming matchup. In Week 9, Carr is that guy. The much-maligned QB has completed multiple TD passes in four of his past five games and leads the NFL in completion percentage at 72.1%. Teams have been attacking the Lions on the ground with great success, so while Josh Jacobs may very well have a good game, that threat should also allow Carr to attack using play-action, where he ranks in the NFL's top five.
Also interested in:
Matthew Stafford ($6,800 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel), Detroit Lions at Oakland Raiders: The Raiders are allowing opponents to complete 71.4% of red zone passes, the second-highest rate in the league. Stafford has the seventh-best red zone passer rating in the NFL, ahead of both Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes.
Jameis Winston ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel), Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks: He has hit the 300-yard bonus in four of his past five games. Over 50% of his targets go to just two receivers. Winston may not be a great real-life quarterback, as he ranks 31st in completion percentage, but he's great for DFS purposes, and stacking him is easy.
Matt Moore ($4,800 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel), Kansas City Chiefs vs. Minnesota Vikings: Moore is making the most of his time at starter in the wake of the Mahomes injury. The Chiefs are not asking him to play the same style as Mahomes, which has led to success. He is tasked with getting the ball in the hands of his talented receivers and letting them create yards after the catch. In fact, the Chiefs average a league-high 7.0 YAC and Minnesota is allowing the seventh-highest completion percentage on balls thrown less than 15 yards.
Running backs
Christian McCaffrey ($10,000 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel), Carolina Panthers vs. Tennessee Titans: People didn't want to roll with McCaffrey in Week 8 because of the tough matchup against the 49ers, yet even in a blowout loss he scored 30.5 DraftKings points. The Titans are one of the slower teams in the league in terms of pace of play, and McCaffrey is the first player this season to reach the $10,000 mark. I've heard a lot of chatter about how he isn't worth it, but I'm going to make the argument that he is. We're always looking to pile on as much volume from our running backs as we possibly can. McCaffrey gives us that and then some between his monstrous role both on the ground and through the air. He's got massive big-play ability, as he's logged either a 20-plus-yard catch or a 75-plus-yard run in five straight games. There is just no player on the slate that provides the comfort that McCaffrey gives you, with the possible exception of Dalvin Cook -- but even Cook has seen his price rise to $9,500 this week. I think it's a mistake to not have one of those two options in your head-to-head lineups. Cook is a fine play, but I like McCaffrey just a little bit more.
Nick Chubb ($7,400 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel), Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos: The pricing for this week's slate, coupled with the teams on their bye, is forcing me to get almost completely out of my comfort zone at running back. Typically, I wouldn't recommend playing road underdog running backs, especially in situations where they're priced above $7,000. That said, there are definite reasons to love Chubb on a weekly basis. He has seen 20-plus touches in all but one of the Browns' seven games this season and he's been incredible with those touches, gaining 6.64 yards per rush (with five touchdowns) over his past five games. For me, it's all about trying to get to more than 70 touches among my three running backs (in lineups where I use one in the flex). Chubb paired with one of the nosebleed-priced running backs gets you well along that path.
Also interested in:
Royce Freeman ($4,900 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel), Denver Broncos vs. Cleveland Browns: He's had either a rushing score or four-plus catches in six of his past seven games. Phillip Lindsay carried the ball 21 times in Week 3, significantly eating into Freeman's workload, but he hasn't had more than 15 carries in any game since.
Mark Walton ($4,500 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel), Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets: As of now, Walton appears to have the best volume-for-value on the slate, with Kenyan Drake gone from the Miami backfield mix. He has a solid matchup at home against the Jets and is coming off a Monday Night outing where he had 14 touches -- three of them catches. Walton presents a path to 15 touches at a low price on a slate where seemingly everyone else has gotten a major price hike. However, if James Conner is out for Pittsburgh, Jaylen Samuels would become the best value on the slate -- especially with Benny Snell Jr. also having to sit for the Steelers.
Wide receivers
Tyler Lockett ($7,500 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel), Seattle Seahawks vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: For me, Lockett is tied to the Wilson play, on the assumption that the Seahawks will have to throw the ball more this week because the Buccaneers just don't allow teams to beat them on the ground. If Wilson throws the ball 25 times, it's going to be tough for this play to get there on volume and will require a touchdown. But in the case that Wilson throws more than 35 passes this week, Lockett should absolutely shred Tampa Bay's defensive backs. Wide receivers who have seen double-digit targets against the Buccaneers are averaging 26.3 DraftKings points per game.
Chris Godwin ($7,300 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel), Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks: There are only two players in the league who have seen a higher percentage of their team's receptions than Chris Godwin -- Michael Thomas and DeAndre Hopkins. Mike Evans has seen a ridiculous 29 targets in the past two weeks, and over the season, we've seen that volume yo-yo between these two outstanding receivers. Godwin tends to work the shorter routes, which is where Seattle's defense has been victimized, mostly by tight ends. The Seahawks' defense is living off reputation at this point, as they've held only one team to under 20 points on the scoreboard in 2019.
Jarvis Landry ($4,500 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel), Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos: We need WR value this week, and due to the variance inherent in the position, there are indeed some great value options to be found. However, I'm always going to try to lock in a value that is guaranteed volume. Landry presents the best choice for me in the $4-5K range this week. He's seen six-plus targets in every game this season. They've been a different kind of target compared to what he used to see in Miami. He averaged just 6.3 air yards per target with the Dolphins, but that number is up to 10.5 in Cleveland. We get a solid floor and the possibility of a strong ceiling with Chris Harris Jr. likely being matched with Odell Beckham Jr. and Baker Mayfield having to force a few more targets than usual to Landry.
Also interested in:
Mike Williams ($4,600 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel), Los Angeles Chargers vs. Green Bay Packers: Williams is still waiting to cash in on his tremendous amount of air yards and red zone/end zone targets. The Packers have allowed four wide receivers to hit the 100-yard bonus this season.
Curtis Samuel ($4,300 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel), Carolina Panthers vs. Tennessee Titans: Tennessee is allowing the fifth-highest completion percentage on end zone targets this season. Samuel has seen three of Carolina's five end zone targets. TE Greg Olsen has the other two, so Samuel is the only wideout on the Panthers with an end zone look. He ranks fifth in the league with 112.9 air yards per game, so there's ample opportunity for both floor and ceiling here.
Tight ends
Zach Ertz ($4,700 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel), Philadelphia Eagles vs. Chicago Bears: This is the cheapest price for Ertz that we've seen in a very long time. Some of that has come due to the emergence of Dallas Goedert in the Philadelphia system, but Ertz is still seeing plenty of snaps and running enough routes to make a fantastic impact on a weekly basis. Opponents are completing 75% of their passes against the Bears when targeting the tight end. I'll be happy to take advantage of an All-Pro at the most discounted price we've seen in a very long time.
Greg Olsen ($3,500 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel), Carolina Panthers vs. Tennessee Titans: It's highly unlikely that we'll have the money to pay up for tight end this week. From my perspective, Olsen represents the best of the cheap options. The matchup against the Titans is solid enough -- tight ends that have seen four-plus targets against the Titans have averaged 12.6 DraftKings points per game. If Olsen reaches that benchmark, he'll have more than paid off his salary.
Also interested in:
Dallas Goedert ($3,100 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel), Philadelphia Eagles vs. Chicago Bears: A full 35.1% of Philadelphia's dropbacks have come with two or more tight ends on the field. That's the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. Goedert has now outscored Ertz in three straight games.
Jack Doyle ($3,000 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel), Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers: In the Colts' last two games, Doyle has run 13 more routes and seen two more targets than Eric Ebron. Doyle has 14 catches over the past four games, five more than Ebron.
Defenses
My philosophy for picking defenses in DFS is simple: Defensive touchdowns are extremely difficult to predict. The greatest predictor of defensive scoring is the ability to put pressure on the opposing passer, so I look for teams that have a pressure advantage against an overmatched offensive line. Pressure leads to sacks, fumbles and interceptions, which can turn into touchdowns.
New York Jets ($3,500 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel), vs. Dolphins
Carolina Panthers ($2,800 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel), vs. Titans
Washington Redskins ($1,800 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel), at Bills
Disclaimer: Al Zeidenfeld is a promoter and user at DraftKings (Username: Al_Smizzle) and plays on his personal account in games for which he offers advice. These views/strategies are his own and do not reflect the views of DraftKings. He might also deploy different players/strategies than what he advises.