Success in daily fantasy comes down to your ability to find value, identify players in great matchups and maximize the relationships among the players in your roster (otherwise known as correlation). In other words, what are the week's best buys?
Each week, I'll go through every position and give you a few players I'm considering for my head-to-head lineups -- usually players who are getting as much volume as possible while also coming in at value prices. I'll also include some players I'm considering for my tournament pool. And while things may change from the time I write this article until game time, I'll do what I can to keep people updated on my various social media channels all the way up until kickoff on Sunday.
Quarterbacks
Deshaun Watson ($7,100 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel), Houston Texans vs. Oakland Raiders: There are times you just don't need to overthink things. Watson is without a doubt one of the highest floor/ceiling options at quarterback in Week 8 due to the matchup, pace, and expected offensive environment in this game. Five times in six games versus the Raiders this season, the opposing quarterback has completed over 67% of his passes. For his career, Watson is averaging 27.4 DraftKings points when completing over 67% of his passes at home.
Matthew Stafford ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel), Detroit Lions vs. New York Giants: The Lions are playing slightly different from how we thought they would in 2019, as they are allowing Stafford to air it out more frequently, resulting in his league-leading 10.6 air yards per attempt. The Giants have already struggled against two of the other quarterbacks who were in the top four in that statistic (Jameis Winston, Dak Prescott), allowing that duo to combine for 15 of 21 deep passes for five touchdowns. The loss of Kerryon Johnson should keep the Lions throwing and, with most of the red zone market share going to Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones Jr.,we have some very viable stacking (and double-stacking) options.
Ryan Tannehill ($5,100 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel), Tennessee Titans vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Do you want to go fishing for some extreme value at quarterback? Are you willing to get a little bit out of your comfort zone? Tannehill gets a fantastic matchup this week against the Buccaneers after playing two very efficient games -- with completion rates around 80% in both. Tampa Bay has allowed the second-most DraftKings WR points in the league over the past four weeks and the fourth-most QB points over that span while facing Daniel Jones, Jared Goff, Teddy Bridgewater and Kyle Allen. That's not exactly a murderer's row. If he can get to a modest 20 points -- which isn't out of the realm of possibility, as Tampa Bay is quite stingy against the run and will force teams to throw to beat them -- Tannehill would sit as one of the best point-per-dollar plays on the board.
Also interested in:
Russell Wilson ($7,200 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel), Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons have allowed a league-high 25 offensive touchdowns. Wilson has averaged 23.6 DraftKings points for his career when the game has 50-plus total points scored and this game has the highest over/under on the slate at 53.5. This is a great offensive environment.
Jacoby Brissett ($5,600 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel), Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos: The Colts have been more prone to throw on first and second down in home games than on the road. They rank eighth in the league in red zone passing percentage this season (65.5%) after ranking eighth last year as well (65.1%). In other words, the QB change didn't affect this offense at all in that regard.
Running backs
Leonard Fournette ($7,800 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel), Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New York Jets: Fournette's price has come up, but is nowhere near close to enough to match the volume he's gotten consistently this year. We can feel pretty confident that we'll get 25-30 touches from Fournette, as the Jaguars are both favored and at home, going up against a Jets team that has allowed the sixth-most RB DraftKings points. The Jets have allowed a rushing touchdown on 5.9% of carries this season, tied for the worst mark in the league. They also have allowed the second-highest percentage (30.3%) of red zone carries to be converted to touchdowns.
James White ($5,100 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel), New England Patriots vs. Cleveland Browns: Opponents have completed 32 of 37 passes (86.5%) to running backs against the Browns this season, the fourth-highest rate in the league. White is on pace for 101 receptions this season and has caught at least five passes for 45 yards in all but one game this season. He has also scored over 11.9 DraftKings points in every game this season.
Also interested in:
Saquon Barkley ($8,900 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel), New York Giants at Detroit Lions: Detroit is allowing the sixth-most yards per carry before contact this season (3.2 yards). The Lions are also allowing the fifth-most (139.2) rushing yards per game. This is a great matchup for Barkley.
Chris Carson ($7,000 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel), Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons: Opponents are averaging 30.9 carries per game versus the Falcons, fourth-most in the NFL. Carson ranks third in the league with 19.9 carries per game. The three times that a running back has gotten 20-plus carries against Atlanta this season, he's accrued an average of 18.6 DK points.
Marlon Mack ($6,100 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel), Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos: He's had at least 18 touches in all but one game this season. We've already seen three different running backs clear 22 points against the Broncos this season (Fournette, Josh Jacobs and Austin Ekeler).
Wide receivers
Michael Thomas ($8,000 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel), New Orleans Saints vs. Arizona Cardinals: Thomas has been Mr. Consistent this season, giving us a couple of tournament-winning (or at least contending) performances while never giving us a dud. The Saints play up in pace this week against the Cardinals and prospects are high as the return home should do nothing to slow Thomas' possibly record-setting season. He is currently on pace for 142 catches, just one short of the league record. Touchdown upside is important for everyone, but it's not extremely necessary with the massive floor that Thomas brings every week. Beyond that, his red zone market share is actually up to 30% from 28.9% last season. That's just another reason to want to reach upward for Thomas in head-to-head lineups this week.
Courtland Sutton ($5,300 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) and DaeSean Hamilton ($3,300 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel), Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts: Before the Emmanuel Sanders trade, Sutton was a very interesting play for Week 8. Post-trade, his value becomes even more defined. He's had six-plus targets in every game this season as well as the team lead in red zone targets. Hamilton, however, gets a massive bump in both snaps and usage with Sanders gone. In Denver's last four games in 2018, when Sanders was sidelined by injury, Hamilton averaged six-plus catches on 9.5 targets per game. If you need value at wide receiver, Hamilton projects out as the best sub-$4,000 play on DraftKings.
Mike Williams ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel), Los Angeles Chargers at Chicago Bears: There's a lot of value at wide receiver this week and Williams projects as one of the better ones on the slate. Sitting at only $4,000 on DraftKings and logging 29 targets over the past three weeks, Williams is a very easy value for volume play here -- with TD upside as well. Williams is second on the Chargers in terms of red zone targets and has logged at least one end zone target in each of the past five games. To have not yet walked away with a touchdown is very strange, to say the least. The Bears are also a better matchup than their reputation would suggest, as their defense has allowed the third-most completions per game. This is a great floor/ceiling combination at a super low price point.
Also interested in:
DeAndre Hopkins ($8,100 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel), Houston Texans at Oakland Raiders: This is projected to be the highest-totaled game of the day. Hopkins is coming off back-to-back games with nine catches and 12 targets. Will Fuller V's injury could help serve to lock in similar usage for Hopkins this week and, hopefully, more downfield looks.
Dede Westbrook ($4,500 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel), Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New York Jets: The Jets are allowing 8.7 slot completions per game. Westbrook ranks ninth in the league in slot catches, sixth in slot yards and sixth in slot points this season among wide receivers. He's also seventh overall in the NFL in targets since Week 3, which is more than either Julio Jones or Travis Kelce.
Tight ends
Darren Waller ($5,900 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel), Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans: Tight end is a bit of a mess this week, with many of the value spots we've attacked in previous weeks now having seen their price risen up to match production. Waller is one of those players, and we saw him start to break through his invisible TD ceiling last week as he got into the end zone twice. The matchup with the Texans is definitely tough, but defense against tight ends can be a "noisy stat." As always, it's volume above everything for me -- and Waller has seen WR1 volume all season.
Hunter Henry ($4,900 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel), Los Angeles Chargers at Chicago Bears: Henry was massively underpriced last week compared to his expected volume and we've seen his salary come up by over 20% for Week 8. That said, he still pops for me as a positive value on his volume alone, with the possibility of TD upside being the cherry on top of the sundae. Adding to the optimism, the Bears are allowing the third-highest (75.6%) TE completion rate in the league. Henry has seen 17 total targets over the past two weeks since returning from injury.
Also interested in:
Evan Engram ($5,300 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel), New York Giants at Detroit Lions: Detroit is allowing a league-high 10.5 yards per pass attempt to tight ends this season.
Defenses
My philosophy for picking defenses in DFS is simple: Defensive touchdowns are extremely difficult to predict. The greatest predictor of defensive scoring is the ability to put pressure on the opposing passer, so I look for teams that have a pressure advantage against an overmatched offensive line. Pressure leads to sacks, fumbles and interceptions, which can turn into touchdowns.
New England Patriots ($4,300 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel), vs. Browns
Jacksonville Jaguars ($2,900 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel), vs. Jets
Carolina Panthers ($2,400 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel), at 49ers
Disclaimer: Al Zeidenfeld is a promoter and user at DraftKings (Username: Al_Smizzle) and plays on his personal account in games for which he offers advice. These views/strategies are his own and do not reflect the views of DraftKings. He might also deploy different players/strategies than what he advises.