The Kansas City Chiefs entered Week 6 with the universally recognized top quarterback and tight end in the sport, plus a productive wide receiver returning from injury.
What Andy Reid's team lacked was a relevant running game -- and things did not improve Sunday with a second consecutive home loss, this time to the intriguing Houston Texans. The Chiefs' running backs have become a source of frustration for fantasy managers, who are wondering not only which ones to trust, but perhaps also whether any are truly reliable enough to deserve more than borderline flex attention.
After all, as we take our first look at Week 7, the Chiefs draw the Thursday night game with limited preparation time, headed to Denver to face a Broncos defense coming off a shutout of the Tennessee Titans. Tennessee is a mess at quarterback, but Derrick Henry also did little damage, totaling barely one-third of his usual rushing-yard average. Denver will have to face an elite passing game on Thursday, but the way the Chiefs have struggled to establish the run -- especially in recent weeks -- fantasy managers might want to stop presuming that success is imminent and look elsewhere.
Kansas City lost to Houston in part because the awesome Patrick Mahomes, after tossing a pair of first-quarter touchdowns, endured the worst second half of his career, passing for only 41 yards. Meanwhile, Houston's Deshaun Watson, drafted two spots later in the first round back in 2017, played efficiently in the second half while also adding value on the ground. Mahomes still finished with 273 yards and three touchdowns -- two of them to the now-healthy, rejuvenated WR Tyreek Hill. Fantasy managers were pleased with that connection. TE Travis Kelce disappointed a bit, but the targets were indeed there, so nobody is too concerned.
Reid's offenses can be prolific. That said, even in Philadelphia, the pass/run ratio was more often than not one-sided and often criticized. On Sunday, the Chiefs ran just 11 times for 53 yards. Last week, in a loss to the Indianapolis Colts, they had only 14 rushes for 36 yards. And neither loss was of the blowout variety that forces a team to live in "throw mode."
The Chiefs, who entered the weekend ranked No. 25 in rushing yards per game, could have run the football. They appear to have reasonable enough personnel to be able to do so, but simply chose not to. Some would say this is wise, considering how great Mahomes and his pass-catching pals are, but there is little balance in the Kansas City huddle, and defenses can take advantage. Damien Williams was a starting option in over 50% of ESPN standard leagues this week, and LeSean McCoy in more than 25%. Is this because they are on the Chiefs or because they actually deserve the attention?
Williams ended up scoring 9.0 PPR points, much of it thanks to a first-quarter screen pass he turned into a nifty touchdown reception, but he was given only one more rushing attempt than you and me. One. He is averaging a measly 1.9 yards per rush this season on only eight attempts in the four games he has been active. Even more worrisome, to a degree, is the fact that he has only 29 combined receiving yards over the past two games on four catches.
In other words, his role morphed into mainly a receiving one, but he has been less busy and less successful than the likes of Tarik Cohen, Chris Thompson and other running backs who lack statistical versatility. This was not the case last season, as Williams averaged better than 5.0 YPC and scored four rushing touchdowns over the final four games. Nobody believed he was all that great, but in this offense, most believed anyone could be capable of greatness.
McCoy, the successful veteran who joined the team one week before the season after being released by the Buffalo Bills, is also rostered in more than 80% of ESPN leagues. Perhaps that is just the generosity of nostalgia. McCoy has dealt with an ankle injury and has been criticized by Reid for poor pass protection -- after all, keeping Mahomes upright is of utmost importance. When he is not scoring touchdowns, McCoy is not really producing much. Predicting weekly touchdowns, regardless of the offense, is dangerous. McCoy barely played in Week 5, and on Sunday, he turned a measly eight carries into 44 rushing yards, including a 17-yard run, He has seen just four targets, split evenly, over the past two weeks, with little success.
Add it all up and it is difficult to feel good about the current Chiefs running backs corps until further notice -- including Darrel Williams, one of the most-dropped players in ESPN leagues. Perhaps the team needs to upgrade. After Denver, the Chiefs play the Packers, Vikings, Titans and Chargers. The Chiefs cannot effectively run the ball and often choose not to try. Fantasy managers smitten by this offense seem to be overrating the RB section of the crew. That hardly means Williams and McCoy are clear sits this Thursday or that they do not deserve rostering at all. Still, it is tough to make the case for either as a great flex choice.
Here are more fantasy themes to watch in Week 7:
Digging Stefon again?
My colleagues Tristan H. Cockcroft and Matt Bowen expertly analyzed WR Stefon Diggs's monster performance for the Minnesota Vikings in their game against a fill-in Philadelphia Eagles secondary, so I will not belabor those particular points. However, I will be quite direct and make one of my own: Now is the perfect time to float Diggs' name in trade talks, because his performance prior to this week was troubling.
Sure, you should probably sell high on any receiver after a three-TD outburst, but in this case, Diggs remains the No. 3 option in the Minnesota offense after Dalvin Cook and Adam Thielen. Oh, and by the way, QB Kirk Cousins still is not good. He was good against the Eagles -- a defense that, save for a game against the now-released Luke Falk, simply can't rush the passer and play with backups in the secondary. Diggs likely matches up with Detroit Lions star CB Darius Slay in Week 7, and based on his lack of success in the past against Slay, it is reasonable to wonder whether Diggs is even a decent flex option for this one. Be careful here.
Rams stall
Los Angeles Rams QB Jared Goff looked awful against the still-unbeaten San Francisco 49ers, finishing with an almost incomprehensible 78 passing yards. I mean, Sam Darnold did better than that on one memorable play to Robby Anderson. The Rams also could not run the ball effectively, so now what? Sure, RB Todd Gurley II sat this one out with a quad injury, but shouldn't an NFL team's offensive numbers look better than this? Goff entered the weekend No. 15 at his position in fantasy, with as many interceptions as touchdown passes and no running ability.
The Rams travel to Atlanta in Week 7, and the Falcons are terrible defensively -- so much so that Matt Ryan loses nearly every week despite big numbers. We are not debating Ryan versus Goff in fantasy. We know that answer. However, Goff is not this bad and should bounce back to top-10 fantasy worthiness in Atlanta. If he doesn't, wow. As for the running game, we do not know whether Gurley will play this week, but I sure would like to see more of rookie Darrell Henderson Jr., who rocked in his first chance at playing time.
Jets look Darn good
Speaking of Darnold, I continued to mention his name in this blog space most Mondays because he is an actual NFL quarterback capable of big things, and his health is key to the statistical performance of his offensive mates. We often see second-year passers make great strides, and Darnold, who sat out four weeks recovering from mononucleosis, led his team to a win over Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday. Darnold was efficient and careful -- a borderline top-10 fantasy quarterback for Week 6. He's certainly capable of making all the throws, as he did on that 92-yarder to Anderson.
Now he needs to do it again (or at least perform competently) in Week 7's Monday night contest at home against the New England Patriots, who own the top defense in the NFL. I believe he can. I believe the Patriots' D/ST is scoring multitudes of fantasy points mostly because of the opposition. This is a good defense, but it's not exactly the 1985 Chicago Bears. Darnold can alter the narrative.
To be fair, other than the bomb to Anderson, it's not like the Jets piled on the fantasy points. Le'Veon Bell scored his first rushing touchdown since 2017, but his 53 total yards represented a season low, as he was no factor in the passing game. I want to see how Darnold and his colleagues play next Monday night and how the Patriots defend against an offense that requires that you judge them as they currently look, rather than on the basis of their first four games.