Matchups play a huge part in fantasy managers' weekly lineup decisions. When choosing between two (or more) similarly talented players, the decision often boils down to: Which one has the best matchup?
We use that word -- "matchups" -- a lot. But what, exactly, constitutes a favorable or unfavorable matchup?
This is where the "Matchups Map" comes in. Each week, I'll provide a schedule-independent method to determine strength of positional matchups, using the most recent, relevant data. Check back for updated numbers each week, including matchups highlights at each position -- favorable and unfavorable -- based upon those statistics. For these purposes, we will use PPR (point per reception) scoring.
For Week 2, the maps include two measures: The first, "Rk," is my personal ranking of how favorable/unfavorable I consider that positional matchup; the second, "Adj. FPA," reflects how far above or below a player's average that defense held opponents at that position. For Weeks 1-3, 2018 full-season data is used for the latter, so take those with a grain -- or several grains -- of salt. Beginning in Week 4, we'll use 2019 data (three weeks in the books at that point), and then, starting in Week 6, we'll use the most recent five weeks.
Finally, a caveat: Remember that matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited; not every unfavorable matchup should be avoided. To get the most complete recipe for whom to start and sit, consult my weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Favorable matchup: Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders (vs. Kansas City Chiefs)
There's a case to make here for a blanket "start him" call regarding Carr, and certainly in 14-plus-team and two-quarterback leagues, he's probably going to qualify for every lineup. Carr's opening-week stats weren't knock-your-socks-off-outstanding -- he ultimately had only 14.6 fantasy points using ESPN's scoring, and his average depth of target was only an eyelash better than the league's average -- but they also came against a Denver Broncos defense that was projected to be upper-half (at worst), and he did make excellent use of new No. 1 wide receiver Tyrell Williams and Jared Cook replacement Darren Waller, completing 13 of 15 pass attempts to those two alone for 175 of his 259 yards.
Chiefs perimeter cornerbacks Terrance Mitchell and Charvarius Ward will have their hands full with Williams, and safety Tyrann Mathieu can't possibly cover both Raiders receivers, meaning there will be openings. It helps that the Chiefs seem likely to rack up the points regardless of opponent, meaning Carr and the Raiders will probably find themselves passing frequently.
Unfavorable matchup: Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (at Baltimore Ravens)
His fourth-quarter and overtime heroics -- even in a game that ultimately ended in a tie -- sure were something, weren't they? Don't ignore that the three quarters he played before it were spotty, to say it gently, which is also a fair description of some of his preseason work.
Murray now hits the road for the first time in his NFL career to face one of the four truly tough matchups he has on his 2019 schedule. The Ravens had the second-fewest adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks in 2018 (minus-4.6), and dominated the Dolphins' quarterback duo to the tune of a league-low 46.9 completion percentage with two interceptions in Week 1 (as they should have).
Murray isn't going to find a similar number of late-game openings against this defense to what he had vs. the Detroit Lions in Week 1. And just to toss a little history onto the pile, consider that rookie quarterbacks this century have averaged 1.23 fewer fantasy points per game on the road compared with at home but non-rookies have averaged only 1.02 points fewer on the road.
Running backs
Favorable matchup: Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills (at New York Giants)
No one is going to tout Singletary as a clear Week 2 fantasy starter after he amassed only four rushing attempts in Week 1, but he's the week's most appealing upside play among those ranked outside the top 20 running backs. Frank Gore's 11 carries were a bit of a mirage, coming on a grand total of 18 offensive snaps, while Singletary's 43 offensive snaps included his running a whopping 29 routes. Singletary made it clear he's the most complete, well-rounded player in the Bills' backfield, and he even tore off runs of 23, 20, 15 and 12 yards during the game's second half, a period when no other Bills running back completed a run of even 10 yards.
His arrow is pointing upward, right at a time when he's set to face a Giants defense that ranked 28th in adjusted fantasy points allowed (4.1) in 2018 and didn't look quite that bad in Week 1 only because Ezekiel Elliott was still shaking off some of the rust after his lengthy holdout.
Everyone is on board with Josh Allen as a potential Week 2 breakthrough. Singletary could play a huge part in that, thanks to his pass-catching ability, but I think Singletary might actually wind up this game's star.
Unfavorable matchup: Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers (vs. Minnesota Vikings)
No running back has a tougher September schedule than Jones, who, after the Thursday opener against the Chicago Bears and this assignment against the Vikings will still have to tangle with the Broncos and the Philadelphia Eagles. This is the toughie, though, against a stout Vikings front seven led by run-stopping defensive ends Everson Griffen and Danielle Hunter.
Jones has averaged just 8.3 PPR fantasy points in his three career games against the Vikings, and although he did manage to score a touchdown in their most recent meeting, his 3.8 career yards-per-carry average against them (contrast that with his 5.4 against all opponents) shows that he has had an extremely difficult time finding running lanes against them.
Wide receivers
Favorable matchup: Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)
If there's a weak spot on the Eagles' roster, it's in their secondary. Cornerbacks Ronald Darby and Rasul Douglas have struggled mightily against perimeter receivers (when healthy) since the beginning of last season, and Sidney Jones, who could step into the lineup in Week 2, hasn't yet proved himself to be a substantial upgrade upon either one.
The Eagles, last season, afforded not only the fifth-most adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers (4.4) but also the fourth-most AFPA to opposing WR1s (3.3). That's why Julio Jones has had no issue dominating this defense, catching 29 of 46 targets for 445 yards in these teams' past three meetings, but it also means that there should be plenty of Matt Ryan throws to go around for Ridley to also put up a lofty score. If Terry McLaurin managed five catches for 125 yards and a score against this secondary, what might Ridley do?
Unfavorable matchup: Sterling Shepard, New York Giants (vs. Buffalo Bills)
Concussion-like symptoms have bothered Shepard throughout the practice week, and even if he's cleared to play, he's in poor enough shape on the matchups front that he's someone to avoid. Yes, Shepard typically lines up out of the slot, running 377 of his 642 routes since the beginning of last season from there. Yes, elite Bills cornerback Tre'Davious White rarely covers the opposing slot receiver, meaning Shepard's individual matchup is likely to be more fantasy-friendly than, say, Cody Latimer's.
Still, this is a matchup where Eli Manning should have trouble delivering the football to his receivers, and anything Shepard provides might be on shorter, lower-impact routes. In Week 1, bear in mind that Shepard's average depth of target was only barely better than 5 yards beyond the line of scrimmage (5.2, to be exact).
Tight ends
Favorable matchup: Darren Waller, Oakland Raiders (vs. Kansas City Chiefs)
As mentioned above, it's possible that the Chiefs will assign safety Tyrann Mathieu to cover Waller, which would noticeably downgrade Waller's matchup. Still, since it's likely Mathieu might be needed to help cover Tyrell Williams and the wide receivers, not to mention the Chiefs rotated their coverage quite a bit in Week 1, Waller should find his openings. Waller managed seven catches on eight targets for 80 yards in his first game as Jared Cook's replacement, and he shouldn't have much trouble duplicating or probably exceeding his 14.0 PPR fantasy points. The Chiefs, after all, had the third-worst adjusted fantasy points allowed to the position in 2018 (4.2).
Unfavorable matchup: Jared Cook, New Orleans Saints (at Los Angeles Rams)
Cook's debut with the Saints was an awfully quiet one -- he was targeted on only three of his 27 routes, caught two of them and totaled 5.7 PPR fantasy points -- and his follow-up might not be any more spectacular. The Rams most often assign safety John Johnson III to the opponent's top tight end, and since the beginning of last season, Johnson has surrendered a 57.7 percent catch rate, one touchdown and a 50.5 passer rating and has hauled in four interceptions while defending the position.
Cook has also displayed a tendency to play largely into the hands of his matchups. In 2018, when facing any of the 16 best defenses in terms of adjusted fantasy points allowed to tight ends, Cook averaged 6.4 PPR fantasy points. He averaged 17.8 points when facing teams that ranked among the bottom 16 in that category.