Matchups are often a driving force behind fantasy football managers' weekly lineup decisions. When choosing between two (or more) similarly talented players, you know the first question that comes to mind: Which one has the best matchup?
Ah, but what, exactly, constitutes a favorable or unfavorable matchup?
That's where the "Matchups Map" comes in. Each week, I'll provide a schedule-independent method to determine strength of positional matchups, using the most recent, relevant data. Check back for updated numbers each week, including matchups highlights at each position -- both favorable and unfavorable -- based upon those statistics. For these purposes, we will use PPR (point per reception) scoring, though I have analyzed this data for both PPR and non-PPR and have found that the rankings would scarcely change (if at all). These do, therefore, help in either scoring format.
The maps include two measures: The first, "Rk," is my personal ranking of how favorable/unfavorable I consider that positional matchup; the second, "Adj. FPA," reflects how far above or below a player's average that defense held opponents at that position. All data is from the past five weeks' NFL action.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited; not every unfavorable matchup should be avoided. To get the most complete recipe for whom to start and sit, consult my weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Favorable matchup: Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings (versus Miami Dolphins). While he has endured a mostly disappointing season, in large part due to a lack of protection from his offensive line, Cousins has put forth some solid fantasy performances when the matchups have been right, evidenced by his 18.6 points-per-game average when facing a defense that ranks among the league's bottom half in terms of adjusted fantasy points allowed for the season. The Vikings' change at offensive coordinator, replacing John DeFilippo with Kevin Stefanski, has been widely assumed a signal of the team shifting its focus more toward the run. But let's also not forget that Stefanski was previously the team's quarterbacks coach and probably will amend the playbook such that any shift in offensive philosophy will do more to alleviate pressure on Cousins rather than depress his passing numbers. A change could be a good thing for Cousins, and the biggest thing working against him shouldn't be a problem considering the matchup, as the Dolphins have been one of the weakest defenses at pressuring the quarterback this season, with only 22 sacks (second fewest in the league) and a below-league-average number of quarterback hits. Unsurprisingly, the Dolphins have afforded 63.4 fantasy points on passing plays alone in the past three weeks while facing Andrew Luck, Josh Allen and Tom Brady.
Unfavorable matchup: Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at Baltimore Ravens). While Winston's mobility helps keep him out of the "no-way" rankings tier for Week 15, there's very little upside for him facing this matchup, in a week where all 32 teams play and at least eight other quarterbacks have clearly superior fantasy prospects. The Ravens have one of the deepest and well-balanced defenses in the league, the only team to rank among the top five in both rushing and passing yards per game allowed, and for the season they have minus-3.9 adjusted fantasy points allowed per game (second lowest behind only the Buffalo Bills). This is the defense that kept Patrick Mahomes in check for three quarters and made Derek Carr (Week 12) and Matt Ryan (Week 13) look bad in the two games prior for a combined 38.2 fantasy points allowed for that trio during that three-game span. Winston has been unusually accurate in recent weeks, with only two interceptions in his past four games, but he's a more mistake-prone passer than your average starter, so expect some regression from his recent productivity in this game.
Running backs
Favorable matchup: Dion Lewis, Tennessee Titans (at New York Giants). At varying points this week, I've had both Lewis' and Derrick Henry's names in this spot, mainly because of how extremely favorable the matchup. During the past five weeks, the Giants have surrendered 100-yard games to Matt Breida (Week 10) and Peyton Barber (Week 11), an 84-yard, 16.4-PPR-fantasy-point performance to Josh Adams (Week 12) and 76 yards on 16 carries to Jordan Howard (Week 13). The reason for the Lewis pick instead of red-hot Henry, however, is twofold: One, I think any Henry buzz is a bit out of place for a mediocre pass-catching back who had an uncharacteristically (and unexpectedly) excellent one-game outburst following a season of otherwise disappointing performances even when the matchups have favored him. Two, looking closer at the Giants' performances against opposing running backs of late, they have surrendered solid receiving outputs to Breida (12.1 points receiving alone) and Tarik Cohen (27.6 points receiving in Week 13) and rank worse in terms of points per target than points per rushing attempt for the season (13th highest in the former, 15th highest in the latter). Lewis is a better all-around running back of the two, and I'd place the greater investment in him for Week 15.
Unfavorable matchup: Mark Ingram II, New Orleans Saints (at Carolina Panthers). This is a matchup tailor-made for Drew Brees and the Saints' receivers, as the Panthers have been the seventh-worst defense against opposing quarterbacks as well as wide receivers and third worst against tight ends in terms of PPR fantasy points per game allowed, but they're the fifth best against opposing running backs. Only once all season has a running back reached the 20-point plateau against the Panthers -- Saquon Barkley (28.9, Week 5) -- and in the team's past five games, the opponent's No. 1 back has averaged only 14.6 points. Ingram has averaged only 12 rushing attempts per game in his past five, and he's not getting involved in the passing game nearly enough to be trusted as more than a flex play.
Wide receivers
Favorable matchup: Tre'Quan Smith, New Orleans Saints (at Carolina Panthers). Here's a member of the Saints' offense I do like for Week 15, at least relative to expectations. The Panthers have allowed more PPR fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers (45.1) than any other team in the league the past five weeks, and have served up 20-plus to five different perimeter receivers (on the majority of their routes run) during that five-week span, plus another 24.1-pointer to slot receiver Jarvis Landry in Week 14. Smith is certain to draw either James Bradberry or Donte Jackson in coverage for the vast majority of his routes, and the Saints should be pressed to throw often in this game. If you're in a pinch at WR3/4/flex, Smith is a good upside play available in roughly 65 percent of ESPN leagues.
Unfavorable matchup: Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at Baltimore Ravens). His matchup is extremely unfavorable, and in fact it makes him, at best, a mid-range WR2 for Week 15. Putting aside Tyreek Hill's 22.5 PPR fantasy point Week 14 -- which, by the way, came on 14 targets, with eight of them and 14.3 of the points coming after the third quarter -- not a single opposing wide receiver has scored as many as 12 points against this secondary in the past four weeks. Julio Jones had just 3.8 points against this defense in Week 13, and the Ravens have allowed only 1.1 points per target to the position (lowest in the league by far) in their past four games. For the Buccaneers to thrive this week, they're going to need to spread the ball around, so Evans is both a volume and matchups concern.
Tight ends
Favorable matchup: C.J. Uzomah, Cincinnati Bengals (versus Oakland Raiders). Tight end is a position that has been hit hard by injuries this season, and if you find yourself in a pinch in this fantasy-playoff week, Uzomah is one of the few widely available players who brings a combination of decent volume as well as plus Week 15 matchup. He has averaged 6.0 targets per game in his past five, resulting in 7.5 PPR fantasy points on average despite not catching a single touchdown pass during that span. The opposing Raiders have the season's second-worst adjusted fantasy points allowed (plus-3.4), and served up 38.8 points to Travis Kelce and 12.9 to Demetrius Harris in Week 13.
Unfavorable matchup: Austin Hooper, Atlanta Falcons (versus Arizona Cardinals). He's battling a knee injury, so the question of just how healthy he'll be for the game is a fair one, even if he's cleared to play. The matchup presents the other obstacle, as the Cardinals have faced an extremely challenging recent schedule of tight ends, yet have afforded the position a reasonable 10.1 PPR fantasy points per game in their past five weeks. During that time, this team held Kelce to only 10.6 points on seven targets, Jared Cook to 12.1 on six targets and Jimmy Graham to 13.0 on a whopping 11 targets.