The fantasy football world has lagged behind when it comes to effectively measuring the effect that blocking has on fantasy production, so last year I devised a grading system that uses multiple advanced metrics to project how blocking matchups will impact fantasy football performance in the upcoming week's contests. (The details of the system can be found here.)
The entire list of the Week 11 overall matchup grades is posted below, along with a detailed look at how those blocking grades could affect certain start-sit decisions this week. Subjects here include how Green Bay is likely to fare in a short-week road matchup at Seattle, the vast metric disparity that will likely have a huge effect on the Colts-Titans matchup, if Lamar Jackson has start potential versus the Bengals and more.
(Note: The metrics and rankings listed below are for Weeks 6-10).
Most favorable Week 11 fantasy blocking matchups
Green Bay Packers (at Seattle Seahawks)
A long road trip to Seattle has often been considered a reason to not start many fantasy players, but the Packers' visit to the Pacific Northwest should go a lot better this time around because of their huge blocking matchup edge.
Green Bay ranks fourth in my post-Week 10 overall blocking grades due in large part to their superb run blocking. The Packers rank first in rush yards per carry before first defensive contact (YBCT, 4.2), third in my good blocking rate (GBR) metric that measures how often an offense gives its ball carriers quality run blocking (57.7) and second in my good blocking productivity (GBP) metric that gauges overall rush game production (5.4).
All of those numbers bode extremely well against a Seattle defense that ranks 29th in YBCT (3.3), 27th in GBR (51.4) and 30th in GBP (5.0).
Add that to Aaron Jones' consistently elite marks in my good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric (a pace that was detailed in my Week 10 fantasy blocking review article) and it makes Jones an RB1 candidate this week. It could also allow Jamaal Williams to be a long shot flex option in deeper leagues.
Indianapolis Colts (vs. Tennessee Titans)
No team has blocked better than the Colts over the past five weeks. Indianapolis has not allowed a single sack in that time frame while also allowing the second-highest average time in pocket (2.4 seconds). The Colts also place first in quarterback contact rate (QCR, 4.1 percent), fifth in pass pressure rate (PPR) allowed (22.5 percent), third in YBCT (3.5) and sixth in GBR (53.0).
The run-blocking metrics may not quite come in handy this week, given that the Titans place first in GBR allowed (35.3) and YBCT (1.4), but Tennessee also ranks 23rd in PPR (26.7), 27th in QCR (11.4) and 26th in time in pocket (2.3).
That vast disparity in favor of pass blocking indicates that the Colts are apt to throw the ball early and often in this matchup, so Andrew Luck should have a sixth straight game with 21-plus points, Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle can both contend for TE1 status, and T.Y. Hilton should return to his earlier season WR2 form.
Baltimore Ravens (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)
Baltimore had only two players post 10-plus points in their Week 9 matchup against Pittsburgh. That was the lowest number of Ravens players with a double-digit point total in a game this season and likely has fantasy managers considering bench duty for most of their Baltimore prospects.
Those plans should be favorably adjusted due to the matchup against the Bengals. Cincinnati's defense gave up 500 or more yards for the third straight game last week, a feat that has never occurred before in NFL history and was the direct result of horrible play by the Bengals' front seven.
Cincinnati ranks 31st in PPR (23.3), 28th in QCR (11.1), 27th in sack rate (4.5), 26th in YBCT (3.0) and 20th in GBP (3.8). Baltimore's run blocking has been run of the mill lately, but the Ravens' No. 7 ranking in PPR (25.3) and No. 4 ranking in sack rate (3.0) suggest that Baltimore should be able to throw the ball with much success.
The caveat here is that Lamar Jackson could be making his first NFL start in replacement of an injured Joe Flacco. Jackson excelled at Louisville when the pass pocket was clean of pass-rush pressure, so he has the potential to post 18-20 points while making Michael Crabtree, John Brown and Willie Snead IV all double-digit-point candidates.
Least favorable Week 11 fantasy blocking matchup
Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers)
Leonard Fournette's fantasy managers had to be thrilled with his 27.9-point performance against Indianapolis last week, yet the reality is the Jaguars' run blocking has been among the worst in the league over the past five weeks.
Jacksonville ranks 30th in GBR (38.4) and dead last in both GBYPA (5.4) and GBP (2.1). The Jaguars' pass blocking hasn't been that much better, as this group rates 24th in PPR (33.0) and 28th in QCR (21.0).
The Steelers' defense isn't getting much attention due to Pittsburgh's offensive fireworks, yet a No. 2 ranking in GBR (38.6) and No. 3 ranking in average time in pocket (2.1) indicates this front seven deserves some credit for the recent success.
Combine these trends, and it suggests that Fournette will be a flex candidate this week rather than an RB1 or RB2. It also points towards Blake Bortles being a risky option in two-QB leagues and makes Donte Moncrief and Dede Westbrook risky flex candidates.