[The fantasy blocking breakdown series reviews the impact that run and pass blocking have on fantasy football performance, using methodologies detailed here.]
This week's fantasy blocking breakdown looks at if the Browns' blocking means fantasy managers can trust Baker Mayfield and Nick Chubb to continue to post superb fantasy point totals; if Aaron Jones can produce starting running back level points from here on out; if a turnaround will be in order for Adrian Peterson; and how to properly value the Miami Dolphins' ground game.
It is still far too early to trust the Browns' blocking
Mayfield and Chubb had each posted a game with 20-plus points earlier this season, but to have both of them post 20-plus points in a single contest is a great rarity for Cleveland. Since 2001, the Browns have had only eight games in which a quarterback and running back both notched 20-plus points.
That scarcity would make it seem unlikely that this duo will repeat their respective achievements, and the blocking metrics also point in this direction.
Cleveland allowed the lowest pass pressure rate (PPR) in Week 10, as the Falcons were able to pressure Baker Mayfield on only 8.7 percent of dropbacks, but a lot of that is likely due to Atlanta's pitiful pass rush. In Weeks 5-9, the Falcons' defense ranked next to last in PPR (23.1 percent) and ranked 26th in quarterback contact rate (QCR, 11.8 percent).
The Browns aren't going to be as fortunate in most of their upcoming matchups. Following Cleveland's bye in Week 11, three of the Browns' next four foes (Houston, Carolina and Denver) ranked in the top five in my post-Week 9 pass-rushing grades. Those matchups are likely to return Cleveland back to the type of pass blocking it had when it posted a No. 21 ranking in PPR allowed in Weeks 5-9 (32.2).
The Browns' run blocking has been even worse, as Cleveland has yet to post a single game that equals or surpasses the 47.3 percent leaguewide average mark in my good blocking rate (GBR) metric that measures how often an offense gives its ball carriers quality run blocking. It's not as if Cleveland comes close to the mark very often, as it has managed to post a GBR of 40 percent or higher in only three games this season, with only one of those occurring after Week 3.
These blocking factors don't preclude Mayfield or Chubb from posting quality fantasy point totals, as Mayfield tallied 20.9 points against Tampa Bay in Week 7 despite a 33.3 percent PPR and Chubb has racked up 14-plus points in three of the past four games despite the aforementioned subpar run blocking, but it does indicate that they will be fighting the proverbial tide in terms of blocking consistency, and thus should be considered somewhat risky fantasy prospects.
Aaron Jones is ready to become one of the fantasy football's game-breaking running backs
Fantasy managers have been waiting for Jones to rack up a dominant point total, and he finally did so with a 32.2-point showing against Miami. This has those managers wondering if Jones will be able to keep up an RB1/RB2 pace the rest of the season.
The Packers' superb run blocking would indicate this is possible. Green Bay ranked eighth in the league in GBR in Weeks 5-9 with a 50.0 percent mark. They fell short of that bar against Miami with a 42.1 percent GBR, but that's where Jones' consistently elite production in my good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric comes into play.
Jones has posted a GBYPA at or above the 7.8-yard league average in that category in all but one game this season. He also has tallied a GBYPA of 9.7 yards or higher in five out of the seven games he has played in, which means he has been at or above the elite double-digit bar in that category in almost every start this season.
That level of consistent excellence is why the Packers finally wised up and gave Jones 15 carries against Miami and handed the ball to Jamaal Williams (6.5 GBYPA this year) only three times.
Three of the Packers' next five foes have strong rush defenses, so Jones likely won't be getting into the 30-point range again very often, but the combination of superb run blocking, breakaway ability and an increased carry volume should result in Jones posting RB2-caliber or higher point totals for most of the rest of the 2018 season.
A turnaround doesn't look likely for Adrian Peterson
Peterson started off the 2018 season on a very high note, posting 22-plus points in two of his first three games of the campaign. He has fallen off tremendously since then, with only two double-digit point games in the past six weeks.
One might think that inconsistent blocking would be to blame, given Washington's slew of offensive line injuries, yet this offense has posted a 50 percent or higher GBR in three straight games and has been below the 44 percent GBR mark only once during that six-game scoring slump.
Peterson also has demonstrated solid breakaway ability in this span, as he has tallied an 8.8 or higher GBYPA in three of those six games.
Upon closer examination, it turns out that the biggest impediment is Washington's offensive ineptitude. This platoon ranks 24th in offensive points per drive (1.7), 25th in touchdown drive percentage (16.4) and 21st in yards gained per offensive drive (29.9) since Week 5.
The schedule doesn't look to help Peterson, as according to my rest-of-season schedule strength rankings, Washington's running backs have the most difficult slate of matchups at that position.
Add it all together and it suggests that Peterson isn't a high-percentage play to turn around the decline in production. It might be wise for Peterson's fantasy managers to try to package him with another player before the trade deadline. Those without Peterson on a roster should trade for him only if the cost is relatively low.
Quick note
Miami's running backs ranked near the top of my rest-of-season schedule ranks. The Dolphins also placed fourth in my Weeks 5-9 run-blocking grades and have posted a 54 percent or higher GBR in five of the past six games, including a 54.6 percent GBR against Green Bay in Week 10. Kenyan Drake may be available for a very low trade value, given that he has scored only 13.3 points during his past two games combined, but when this many factors are leaning in his direction it is a deal worth making.