The fantasy football world has lagged behind when it comes to effectively measuring the impact blocking has on fantasy production, so last year, I devised a grading system that uses multiple advanced metrics to project how blocking matchups will impact fantasy football performance in the coming week's contests. The details of the system can be found here.
The entire list of the Week 7 overall matchup grades are posted below, along with a detailed look at how those blocking grades could impact certain start-sit decisions this week. Subjects here include how to value many players who have posted inconsistent point totals this season, including Andy Dalton, Kenyan Drake, Frank Gore, Jordan Howard, Deshaun Watson, Lamar Miller and more.
Most favorable Week 7 fantasy blocking matchups
Cincinnati Bengals (at Kansas City Chiefs)
Outside of A.J. Green, the Bengals players have been unreliable fantasy point producers this season, and even Green has fallen a bit short of expectations by ranking 11th in wide receiver fantasy points.
That trend should change for the better in a highly favorable matchup against the Chiefs. Kansas City's defense has been arguably the worst rush defense in the league, as it ranks last in my good blocking rate (GBR) metric that measures how often a rush defense prevents an offense from giving its ball carriers quality run blocking. The ranking might not even fully detail how bad this defense has been in GBR; a mark of 50 percent will usually qualify for last, but the Chiefs weigh in with a 57.5 percent GBR allowed.
The Bengals' 43.8 percent GBR on offense ranks 17th, but Cincinnati has posted a 48 percent or higher GBR in two of its past three games and had a 61.9 percent GBR in Week 4. The Bengals are capable of posting that caliber of run blocking in this matchup as well, so Joe Mixon should be a strong RB1 and Giovani Bernard (if he is healthy enough to return to the lineup this week) or Mark Walton could have solid flex value.
That caliber of rushing prowess should provide Andy Dalton with plenty of play-action opportunities to build upon his top-10 rankings in completions (11, rank tied for seventh) and passing yards (277, eighth) on play-action throws. That should move Dalton into QB1 territory this week, give Tyler Boyd WR2/WR3 potential and even move tight end C.J. Uzomah into possible start status given the unbelievably low depth at that position.
Miami Dolphins (vs. Detroit Lions)
Kenyan Drake has been a fantasy disappointment for most of this season, posting fewer than 10 points in all but two games in the 2018 campaign in part due to splitting carries with Frank Gore.
Fantasy managers are understandably hesitant to consider placing Drake or Gore into starting lineups, but if ever a matchup pointed toward taking that action, the Lions' defense would be it.
Detroit ranks 26th in GBR allowed (49.2 percent), 30th in good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) allowed (9.3) and 31st in the good blocking productivity (GBP) allowed metric that measures how effective a platoon is at stopping the ground game (4.6). These metrics have led the Lions to place 29th in both running back rushing yards allowed (719) and running back fantasy points allowed per game (31.3).
Miami came into this season with huge question marks on the offensive line and has lost two of its starting offensive linemen to season-ending injuries, yet the Dolphins have found a way to place fifth in GBR (49.6) and ninth in GBP (3.7).
The platoon setup Miami has adopted for its carry division does place a cap on the upside value of this blocking for Drake and Gore, but placing either of them into a RB2 or flex starting role is a high- percentage play with notable upside potential.
Chicago Bears (vs. New England Patriots)
As noted in my Week 6 fantasy blocking review article, Jordan Howard's 5.6 GBYPA mark is drastically lower than he has posted in previous seasons and has led to his posting subpar fantasy point totals, including a meager 7.4 fantasy points over the past two weeks.
Both of those trends have a very good chance of turning around this week in a matchup against a New England rush defense that ranks 22nd in GBR (47.0) and 20th in GBYPA (7.8). It's the type of matchup that should make fantasy managers feel much more comfortable in placing Howard into a flex start role or even using him as a starting running back.
Least favorable Week 7 fantasy blocking matchups
Houston Texans (at Jacksonville Jaguars)
Last week was a total disaster for Houston's fantasy players, as DeAndre Hopkins was the only Texans player to post a double-digit point total, while Deshaun Watson, Lamar Miller and Will Fuller V racked up a combined 19.7 fantasy points.
Atrocious blocking has been a major issue for the Texans, as Houston ranks last in pass pressure rate (PPR) allowed (41.1), next to last in quarterback contact rate (QCR) (23.3), 29th in sack rate (9.6) and 31st in yards per carry before first defensive contact (1.5).
Fantasy managers who have faith that the Texans can turn those numbers around against a Jacksonville defense that was overwhelmed by the Cowboys' blocking should note that the Jaguars have allowed a GBR of 36 percent or lower in four of their six games and allowed a 27 percent or lower GBR in the two games leading up to the Dallas contest.
The Jaguars' pass rush looks a lot less daunting due to not posting more than three sacks in a game this season, but Jacksonville still ranks first in PPR (35.3) and seventh in QCR (16.4).
Add all of this up and it makes Watson, Fuller and Miller all risky start prospects this week and could keep Hopkins as a WR2 given the coverage prowess of the Jaguars' cornerbacks.
Tennessee Titans (vs. Los Angeles Chargers, in London)
The Titans had one of the worst pass-blocking performances of the 21st century last week, as their 39.3 percent sack rate allowed was the highest total in that category since at least 2001, which is the first season in the ESPN Stats & Information database.
Combine that metric with Tennessee's No. 32 ranking in GBP (2.6) and it suggests that this may be the worst offensive line in the NFL. That is not a good place to be against a Chargers defense that ranks fourth in PPR (32.5) and 13th in GBP (3.2).
Most fantasy managers aren't considering placing Titans players into their lineups, but they may have more of a quandary in choosing whether to start the inconsistent Chargers D/ST. The overwhelming favorable nature of this matchup makes it likely that the Chargers D/ST could extend its double-digit point scoring streak to three games and thus rates them as one of the best streaming start D/ST options in Week 7.