The fantasy blocking breakdown series reviews the impact that run and pass blocking have on fantasy football performance, using methodologies detailed here.
This week's fantasy blocking breakdown looks at the future prospects of Jordan Howard, whether Jameis Winston and Peyton Barber can continue to produce at the strong levels they showcased against Atlanta, whether Latavius Murray is a trade high candidate and more.
Superb blocking is a big part of why the Bucs didn't need Fitzmagic to light up Atlanta.
Ryan Fitzpatrick's three-game streak of 400 or more yards and three or more touchdowns to start the season put him in early contention for fantasy football MVP honors and propelled Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson and O.J. Howard to the upper tier at their respective positions.
After the debacle against Chicago in Week 4 that resulted in Fitzpatrick being benched for Jameis Winston, many fantasy managers were wondering if the Buccaneers' offense could hit a similar production ceiling with Winston under center in a highly favorable matchup against Atlanta.
Winston emphatically answered this question by posting a 30.9-point game that was the highest score by a fantasy quarterback in Week 6, and he can give a lot of credit to the offensive line for that performance.
The Buccaneers allowed a pass pressure rate (PPR) mark of 17.8 against Atlanta, a pace that was third best in Week 6, but the most impressive part of that would have to be allowing pass-rush pressure on only one of 20 dropbacks that resulted in a vertical pass (an aerial thrown 11 or more yards downfield).
To get an idea of just how dominant that showing is, consider that there have been 49 games this season in which a team threw 13 or more vertical passes, and this is the lowest PPR among that group and only the fifth time that a team has allowed a PPR of lower than 10 percent. This was a primary factor in Winston posting a Week 6-best 261 vertical passing yards and gaining 12.4 fantasy points on those plays.
The Buccaneers' vertical pass prowess also gave a big assist to the team's run blocking. Tampa Bay's offense came into this contest with a 32.0 percent GBR that ranked next to last, yet it racked up a 41.2 percent GBR, 12.3 GBYPA and a 5.1 GBP against Atlanta. The latter two were season highs for the Buccaneers, and they resulted in Peyton Barber finally breaking out with 20.6 fantasy points, a total that was higher than his entire fantasy output through his first four games of the season.
Tampa Bay's next five opponents ranked 20th or lower in GBP allowed after Week 5, so the schedule leans heavily in favor of Barber being able to keep posting the types of numbers that will make him a viable starter candidate. That means trading him away would be a bad idea, but trading for him at a reasonable price would be a strongly suggested move.
The production pendulum should be swinging upward for Jordan Howard soon.
Over their past two games, Chicago had what looked to be favorable rush defense matchups against Tampa Bay and Miami, yet Howard ended up posting a meager total of 7.4 fantasy points in those contests. Add that to his 9.8 points in Week 2 and it makes three out of five games this season that Howard has failed to post a double-digit point total.
So what is the issue? Part of it subpar run blocking, as Chicago came into the Week 6 matchup against the Dolphins ranked 23rd in my good blocking rate (GBR) metric that measures how often an offense gives its ball carriers quality run blocking. But the Bears' 50.0 percent GBR against Miami was much higher than the 42.2 percent GBR they came into that contest with and thus was not a hindrance.
The real issue is Howard has been one of the least productive running backs this season in my good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric that gauges production on run plays with good run blocking. Howard came into the Miami contest with a 5.7 GBYPA this season, a mark that placed next to last among running backs with 20 or more good blocking carries. That number fell to a 5.6 total for the season following Howard's abysmal 4.8 GBYPA against the Dolphins.
This is an unusually low GBYPA pace for Howard, as he posted an 8.6 GBYPA in 2017 that ranked 13th among qualifying running backs and had a 9.8 GBYPA in 2016 that was the fifth highest in the league. Having noted this, Howard did have eight games with a GBYPA of lower than 7.0 last season, so he does have a hit-or-miss track record in this department.
The potentially good news for Howard's fantasy managers is five of the Bears' next seven opponents ranked 19th or lower after Week 5 in my good blocking productivity (GBP) metric that measures overall rush defense prowess. Those matchups could be just what Howard needs to return his GBYPA to its former levels and vault his fantasy production back to its RB1 or RB2 form.
That makes Howard a must-keep on teams he is currently on and makes him a superb buy-low candidate in those leagues where fantasy managers decide to move on from him.
Was the Arizona contest the start of an upward fantasy point trend for Minnesota running backs?
The Minnesota Vikings' running back tandem of Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray was one of the most disappointing duos in fantasy football this season, as the Vikings came into Week 6 averaging only 9.4 fantasy points per game via their running backs, a pace that ranked 31st.
Murray broke that losing streak by racking up 22.8 points via 155 rushing yards on 24 carries against the Cardinals, but he had a lot of help via a 46.7 percent GBR that was easily the highest GBR that Minnesota has posted this season. Murray took full advantage of the assistance by racking up a ridiculously high 13.8 GBYPA that helped raise his season GBYPA to 9.3.
The big question for fantasy managers is: Can he keep this pace going? Unfortunately, the answer leans toward no for two reasons.
The first is Murray's GBYPA history. In each of the past three seasons, he has posted enough carries to be listed as a GBYPA qualifier, yet his 8.0 GBYPA in 2017, 7.7 GBYPA in 2016 and 8.3 GBYPA in 2015 are all lower than his current GBYPA pace.
It is possible that Murray could establish a new career high in this metric, but that leads to the second negative, which is a schedule that has three of the Vikings' next five games against teams that rank in the top 10 in GBP allowed.
A silver lining here is two of the next three games occur against teams that rank 19th or lower in GBP (New York Jets and Detroit), so the percentage play here could be to wait it out until Murray posts a good game against either the Jets or the Lions and then aim to trade him while his value is at its peak.
Quick note
The Tennessee Titans' pass blocking was so bad that it set a low bar for sack percentage allowed. According to ESPN Stats & Information, the Titans' 39.3 percent sack rate allowed is the highest single-game mark since at least 2001, which is the first year in the Stats & Information database. That is but the latest subpar metric by this group, as injuries and terrible play have caused Tennessee to rank at or near the bottom of the league in most blocking metrics.
Don't expect a quick turnaround for Marcus Mariota, Derrick Henry, Dion Lewis or Corey Davis to get back to posting consistently strong fantasy point totals.