[The fantasy blocking breakdown series reviews the impact that run and pass blocking have on fantasy football performance, using methodologies detailed here.]
This week's fantasy blocking breakdown looks at whether James Conner is going to bounce back to his elite early-season form, details whether Dalvin Cook will be able to turn his season around, shows if Aaron Jones or Jamaal Williams has the inside track on taking over the Packers' backfield, reviews how the future schedule bodes for Mitchell Trubisky's efforts to make a move to QB1 status and more.
Forget Le'Veon Bell. The Steelers'
The Pittsburgh Steelers came into this season with the makings of a dominant ground game via Bell and one of the highest-rated offensive lines in the league.
They haven't come close to meeting those expectations this season, as the Steelers rank 28th in rushing yards headed into the Week 4 Monday night contest. This has caused quite a headache for fantasy managers, as James Conner, Bell's replacement, has seen his point totals decline for three straight weeks, with the nadir being the 9.4 points Conner posted against Baltimore.
As tempting as it is to blame Conner for this drop-off, the reality is he has posted a 7.7-yard mark in my good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric that measures how productive a ball carrier is when given quality run blocking. That is actually higher than the 6.9 GBYPA Bell posted last season. To be fair, Bell posted much higher GBYPA marks in previous seasons, but this does show that compared to last season, Conner is doing more with his favorable opportunities than Bell did.
So if the per-carry production isn't the problem, what is holding this ground game back? Simply put, it is mediocre run blocking.
In 2017, Pittsburgh posted a 47.1 percent mark in my good blocking rate (GBR) metric that gauges how often a blocking wall gives its ball carriers quality run blocking. That total was good enough to place fifth in the league, but what was nearly as impressive was the Steelers' consistency here, as they had a GBR of lower than 40 percent only five times and zero games under the 30 percent mark. This season, Pittsburgh has already posted two games with a GBR of lower than 40 percent and had an abysmal 18.2 percent GBR in Week 2.
In making a decision as to how to value Conner in fantasy, it is worth noting that the Steelers have dealt with their share of offensive line injuries and have the aforementioned strong history of blocking success. That means it is likely this group will return to form sooner rather than later, so rate Conner as a great buy-low candidate in leagues where he ends up on the trade block, and a must-keep for fantasy managers who are tempted to throw in the towel given the recent decline.
Can Dalvin Cook turn his season around? Not without a gargantuan turnaround in the Vikings' run blocking.
No running back in the league can lodge a larger run-blocking complaint than Cook.
The Vikings ranked 30th in my post-Week 3 run-blocking grades due in part to rating 31st in GBR (34.0) and 32nd in my good blocking productivity (GBP) metric that measures overall ground game production (2.0).
Minnesota has posted three straight games with a GBP of lower than 2.0 and has yet to post a single game with a GBYPA that is within a yard of the 7.8 league average in that metric.
Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer doesn't want to operate a pass-first offense, but when the run blocking is this bad and the pass blocking is midtier (Minnesota was 17th in my pass-blocking grades through Week 3), it shows why this club is leaning so heavily on its aerial attack.
A Week 5 matchup against an Eagles defense that ranked third in my post-Week 3 rush defense grades and allowed only 70 ground yards to the Titans doesn't offer much assistance for an immediate run-game turnaround.
The rush defense schedule does get much more favorable later in the season, so fantasy managers should consider stashing Cook on the bench until then, or making a low trade offer for him with the hope that the late-season schedule will help turn this situation around.
The Packers' backfield is a platoon setup right now, but expect that to change in favor of an Aaron Jones-led ground game.
Green Bay did a perfect carry split between Jones and Jamaal Williams against the Bills, as they both notched 11 rush attempts. That might make it seem like the Packers are going to equally value these two, but the metrics lean heavily toward Jones garnering a much larger workload.
The main difference is how these two have performed in the GBYPA metric.
Williams had a 5.9 GBYPA last season, which was the lowest GBYPA among running backs with 100 or more total carries.
Jones didn't have enough carries in 2017 to list as a qualifier, but his 8.1 GBYPA for the season was 2.2 yards per carry better than Williams, which suggests that Jones has much more breakaway ability. It's a small sample size this season, but so far there is a similar disparity in their GBYPA marks. Williams has improved to near mediocrity, as his 7.4 GBYPA is four-tenths of a yard lower than the 7.8 league average in that metric. By contrast, Jones has a 9.0 GBYPA that is 1.6 yards better than Williams' total and once again indicates he is the impact back this offense needs.
There may be a thought that the Packers will continue to operate a platoon scenario, but Jones is a 208-pound back who posted more than 250 touches in two of his collegiate seasons, so he has shown the ability to shoulder a large workload if asked.
Observant fantasy managers are already aware of the production disparity between these two, as Jones' 15.2 points against the Bills made him a strong flex candidate, while Williams' 2.7 points versus Buffalo is the third instance this season of his posting a fantasy point total that belongs nowhere near a starting lineup. Expect similar situations to occur down the road, so keep Jones as a strong flex option and be ready to drop Williams to deep bench duty.
Zero pass rush leads Mitchell Trubisky to the best fantasy point total in 2018.
The Bears gave Trubisky elite pass blocking against the Buccaneers. He saw pass-rush pressure on only one of his 11 vertical pass attempts (aerials traveling 11 or more yards downfield) and completed nine of those for 260 yards and three touchdowns. Tampa Bay's pass-rushers did not make contact with Trubisky on any of his 20 dropbacks that stayed inside the pocket, a factor that allowed Trubisky to post 11.1 air yards per attempt on passes inside the pocket, the second-highest mark in Week 4.
Those elements resulted in Trubisky posting a 43.5-point total that is the highest single-game total by any player this season, so fantasy managers want to know if this might be the start of a high-scoring trend for Trubisky.
The schedule says that probably isn't likely. Chicago has a Week 5 bye followed by games against Miami and New England. The Patriots and Dolphins finished first and second, respectively, in pass pressure rate (PPR) generated versus vertical passes in Week 4, so they aren't likely to leave Trubisky untouched, as he was against Tampa Bay. The Bears' offensive line also didn't have a stellar pass-blocking track record prior to the Buccaneers contest, as a No. 22 ranking in PPR allowed (30.3 percent) resulted in Chicago rating 26th in my post-Week 3 pass-blocking grades.
Trubisky had not posted as many as 15 fantasy points in a game this season prior to this grand slam performance, so the percentage approach here would be to treat this contest as the likely anomaly that it is and use it to adjust Trubisky's grade to QB2 level rather than assume he will be a rest-of-season game-changer.
Quick note
Give Kirk Cousins a ton of credit. He was under pass-rush pressure on 46.2 percent of his vertical passes and still went 11-for-13 for 213 yards and three touchdowns on those throws. Those aerials accounted for nearly two-thirds of his 31.7 fantasy points and suggest that the Vikings' downfield passing game can succeed even if their struggling offensive line doesn't give Cousins ample protection.