Success in daily fantasy football comes down to your ability to find value, identify players in great matchups and maximize the relationships between the players in your roster (otherwise known as correlation).
Each week, I'll go through each position and give you a few players I'm considering for my head-to-head lineups -- usually players who are getting as much volume as possible while also coming in at value prices. I'll also include some players I am considering for my tournament pool in the write-up section, or in the "also considering" section, for each position, and while things may change from the time I write this until game time, I do what I can to keep people updated on my various social media channels all the way up until kickoff on Sunday.
With that in mind, here are my favorite plays for Week 3.
Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes ($7,000 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel), Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers: Allow me, and forgive my victory lap on Mahomes, please. The kid is everything truthers like me had hoped he would be and so much more. There are just too many weapons at his disposal, and he's done as much as anyone could to get the most out of all of them through the first two weeks as the Chiefs starter. The price has moved Mahomes out of cash-game consideration for me, especially with DraftKings tightening up the pricing, but I think he's a fantastic tournament play in stacks or double stacks not unlike the one that took down the Milly Maker last Sunday. The 49ers have allowed quarterbacks to exceed 310 yards or throw multiple touchdowns 15 times since the beginning of last year, and the Chiefs' "friendly" defense will keep Mahomes throwing deep into games.
Deshaun Watson ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel), Houston Texans vs. New York Giants: Most of the tweets about the Texans I was reading while watching football last Sunday were how uninspiring Watson looked. Through it all, he still ended the day with over 300 yards and 26.8 DraftKings points. If that's a mediocre day, sign me up. The Giants have allowed the fourth-most quarterback points since the beginning of last season, and with a healthy DeAndre Hopkins/Will Fuller V combo, Watson looks poised for another fantastic weekend. The price is just too low considering both the floor and ceiling.
Cam Newton ($6,000 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel), Carolina Panthers vs. Cincinnati Bengals: Newton is usually one of my favorite tournament plays but is typically priced out of the conversation for me in cash, but not this week. The last time Newton has seen this cheap a price tag on DraftKings was Week 4 of last season when he was $5,900 against the Patriots (he scored 37.04 fantasy points that day). The truth is he should be closer to $6,500 to $6,700 this week, and I just feel this is a mispriced player we should be taking advantage of because of the built-in floor and Cam's tremendous ceiling.
Also considering:
Matt Ryan ($5,700 DraftKings, 7,700 FanDuel), Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers: Opposing quarterbacks (Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tyrod Taylor) have completed 74.1 percent of passes vs. New Orleans for 651 yards and five touchdowns this season.
Andrew Luck ($5,600 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel), Indianapolis Colts at Philadelphia Eagles: Philadelphia ranks as a bottom-10 defense in terms of yards per play and yards per pass attempt this season.
Blake Bortles (if Leonard Fournette is out) ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel), Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: Multiple touchdown passes in four of Jacksonville's past five wins and in the four games that Fournette has missed this and last year, he has averaged 323 yards per game (210.6 YPG in games with Fournette active).
Running backs
Alvin Kamara ($9,500 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel), New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons: If it feels like I'm just flip-flopping from one week to the next on Kamara vs. Todd Gurley II, you're right. It's just just me sitting here at my desk and flipping a coin, though. The Falcons have been a team we've picked on for the past two seasons with pass-catching backs because they've funneled so many targets and yards that way throughout the years. Last week, we watched Christian McCaffrey post a line of 14 receptions and 102 yards against these same Falcons. Kamara may not get 20 touches -- I fully expect him to land 15 to 20 -- but the inefficiency I'm attacking here is the Falcons' inability to stop backs from catching passes and doing it with the most dynamic pass-catching back in the league. The only question: Are you comfortable with your lineups with Kamara in there based on how tight the pricing is this week?
Jordan Howard ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel), Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals: The Bears are favored on the road, but this game has a low total, something that doesn't bother me much with a running back as involved in a team's offense as Howard. The Cardinals have been good on a per-carry basis, but due to game flow, they've allowed the fifth-most rushing yards through two weeks. I really like Howard's price this week both because of the volume he's received so far on the ground but also based on how much more involved he has been in the Bears' passing game this year versus last. Howard quietly has eight catches on nine targets through two games this season (he had seven catches over his final five games of 2017).
Corey Clement ($4,300 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel), Philadelphia Eagles vs. Indianapolis Colts: This pick is directly tied to Jay Ajayi's health. If Ajayi is active on Sunday, I'm not going to be anywhere near Clement, but if Ajayi is inactive, he likely will be one of my most owned players. The reasons are quite simple -- it comes down to workload and salary. The Eagles still will utilize multiple backs, but Clement will see the lion's share with Darren Sproles and Ajayi inactive, including the majority of the goal-line work. We're starved for value at running back this week and Clement could be the player who solves that issue, but we are in a holding pattern until we get more information.
Also considering:
Tevin Coleman ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel), Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers: In the past five games where Coleman has seen 15 or more touches, he's either scored a touchdown or exceeded 100 yards.
Giovani Bernard ($5,900 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel), Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers: Opponents are completing 81.4 percent of passes to running backs vs. Carolina since the beginning of last season (third highest in the league).
Kareem Hunt ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel), Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers: San Francisco ranks as a bottom-10 defense this season in yards per carry before first contact. Hunt has been a top-10 rusher in terms of yards per carry after first contact since he entered the league.
Chris Thompson ($6,300 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel), Washington Redskins vs. Green Bay Packers: Opponents are completing 83.6 percent of passes to running backs vs. Green Bay since the beginning of last season (second highest).
Wide receivers
Julio Jones ($7,900 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel), Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints: Jones is in absolute prime position to go bonkers this week in one of the highest-scoring games on the slate. He has a very solid history against the Saints with 96 or more yards receiving in each of their past three meetings. The issue, as always with Jones, is whether he gets into the end zone. As I always say, I can't predict touchdowns -- I would rather focus on volume, and with the volume that he sees in the Falcons' pass game. Jones has a tremendous floor and we know he has a history of scoring touchdowns in bunches. Is this the week that Mount St. Julio erupts? I'm willing to pay the price to find out.
Cooper Kupp (5,900 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel), Los Angeles Rams vs. Los Angeles Chargers: Kupp is two targets behind both Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks for the team lead through two weeks, but not all targets are created equally. Where Kupp's value really lies in this Rams' offense is in the monstrous share of red zone looks he gets on the team. Last year, he was one of the league leaders, and if the first two weeks are any indication, that will sustain this year with six red zone targets through two weeks (Woods and Cooks have contributed five combined). Touchdowns always will rule the day, and Kupp's volume in the most important area of the field combined with his low price will continue to keep him in my favorites list.
Tyler Boyd ($3,700 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel), Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers: We all thought that this was going to be John Ross' season to shine, but based on snaps and targets the first two weeks, Boyd is going to be the secondary wide receiver to own on the Bengals. With one fewer target than A.J. Green so far as well as the team lead in air yards -- all while playing 81 percent of the snaps -- I'm extremely interested in Boyd as a value option in Week 3 without considering the matchup. When we actually factor in that since the beginning of last season Carolina ranks as a bottom-10 defense in TD/INT rate, completion percentage and slot touchdowns allowed, it becomes that much more palatable.
Also considering:
Brandin Cooks ($7,000 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel), Los Angeles Rams vs. Los Angeles Chargers: He has eight or more targets and at least 87 yards in both games this season (he didn't string two such games together last season).
T.Y. Hilton ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel), Indianapolis Colts at Philadelphia Eagles: Hilton has 11 targets in back-to-back games and also leads the team in red zone targets (four).
Geronimo Allison ($4,500 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel), Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins: Allison has more receptions per route run this season than Davante Adams and has caught 11 of 14 targets.
Tight ends
Zach Ertz ($6,800 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel), Philadelphia Eagles vs. Indianapolis Colts: Double-digit targets in the first two games of 2018 is just outstanding. Now, with Carson Wentz returning and still plenty of talent missing on the outside, Ertz's involvement in Week 3 should remain high. The matchup is solid, as Indianapolis has allowed the second-most yards per attempt in the league since the beginning of last season. While some will point to the defense-versus-position statistic, not all teams feature their tight ends and other tight ends just don't match up normally versus defenses. and Ertz so very clearly checks both of those boxes.
Austin Hooper ($2,900 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel), Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers: If you can't tell, I like the Falcons' offense this week. On my first look, I liked Trey Burton for value, but Hooper has seen the same volume through the first two games as Burton but is priced $1,000 cheaper on DraftKings. If you need a sub-$3,000 value this week, Hooper stands out with a solid role in the offense. He is utilized in the red zone and this is a game that could possibly be a shootout.
Also considering:
Jack Doyle ($3,500 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel), Indianapolis Colts at Philadelphia Eagles: I figure if I put him in the article every week this season, eventually he'll go off. Seriously, though, this is another good week for Doyle as a value option at tight end.
Defenses
My philosophy for picking defenses in DFS is pretty simple. Defensive touchdowns are extremely variant and therefore difficult to predict. The greatest predictor of defensive scoring is the ability to put pressure on the opposing passer, so I look for teams that have a pressure advantage against an overmatched offensive line. Pressure leads to sacks, fumbles and interceptions, which can turn into touchdowns, so I aim for the floor from pressure combined with teams that project to run a lot of offensive plays to give me as many chances at the big play as possible. Here are the defenses I'm focusing on this week:
Vikings DST ($4,300 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel) vs. Buffalo Bills
Texans DST ($2,800 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel) vs. New York Giants
Cowboys DST ($2,200 DraftKings, $3,400 FanDuel) at Seattle Seahawks
Disclaimer: Al Zeidenfeld is a promoter and user at DraftKings (Username: Al_Smizzle) and plays on his personal account in games he offers advice on. These views/strategies are his own and do not reflect the views of DraftKings. He might also deploy different players/strategies than what he advises.