Matchups are often a driving force behind fantasy owners' weekly lineup decisions. When choosing between two (or more) similarly talented players, you know the first question that comes to mind: Which one has the best matchup?
Ah, but what, exactly, constitutes a favorable or unfavorable matchup?
That's where the "Matchups Map" comes in. Each week, I'll provide a schedule-independent method to determine strength of positional matchups, using the most recent, relevant data. Check back for updated numbers each week, including matchups highlights at each position -- both favorable and unfavorable -- based on those statistics. For these purposes, we will use PPR (Point Per Reception) scoring, though I have analyzed this data for both PPR and non-PPR and have found that the rankings would scarcely change (if at all). These do, therefore, help in either scoring format.
For Week 3, the maps include two measures: The first, "Rk," is my personal ranking of how favorable/unfavorable I consider that positional matchup; the second, "Adj. FPA," reflects how far above or below a player's average that defense held opponents at that position. For Weeks 1-3, 2017 full-season data are used for the latter, so take those with a grain -- or several grains -- of salt. Beginning in Week 4, we'll use 2018 data (three weeks in the books at that point), and starting in Week 6, we'll use the most recent five weeks.
Finally, a caveat: Remember that matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited; not every unfavorable matchup should be avoided. To get the most complete recipe for whom to start and sit, consult my weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Favorable matchup: Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers (at Kansas City Chiefs). Overshadowed by Patrick Mahomes' 10-touchdown start to the season has been the Chiefs' atrocious defensive play, encapsulated by their worst-in-the-NFL marks in terms of passing yards per game allowed (430.0), 20-yard completions (14) and fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks (34.0). That Mahomes has been putting opponents in early holes and forcing them to play catch-up -- something that should repeat in Week 3, considering that the 49ers' defense hasn't performed especially well, either -- only helps strengthen his counterpart's matchup, as does the fact that this is a Chiefs home game, and home teams have outscored visiting opponents by an average of 2.4 points since the beginning of last season (postseason included). Garoppolo's play through two weeks hasn't been quite on par with that of his brilliant, five-start conclusion to 2017, but it hasn't exactly been poor, either, and this is easily the best matchup he has faced so far. If there's a drawback here, it's that Marquise Goodwin (quadriceps) might not be ready to play -- he put in a limited practice on Wednesday -- in which case he'd have to rely more upon Dante Pettis and Trent Taylor. Garoppolo will be asked to throw early and often, and he should find enough openings in this secondary to post QB1 numbers.
Unfavorable matchup: Philip Rivers, Los Angeles Chargers (at Los Angeles Rams). Point out the Rams' soft-to-date schedule if you wish, but a dominating defense should dominate the weaker quarterbacks in the league, and this unit embarrassed Derek Carr in Week 1, with his three interceptions matching his career worst and his 6.2 fantasy points his eighth-worst total in 64 career starts, and held Week 2 opponent Sam Bradford to his worst single-game passer rating since 2012 Week 3 and his second-worst fantasy point total in his 82 career starts. Rivers, meanwhile, has had it extraordinarily easy in his first two games, drawing the Chiefs and Buffalo Bills defenses, but this matchup is likely to cause a swift return to earth for his stats. What's more, the Rams boast one of the best nickel corners in the game in Nickell Robey-Coleman, causing Rivers' best wide receiver (Keenan Allen) to have about the worst matchup he could ask for, and the Rams' defensive soft spot has thus far been against tight ends, but Antonio Gates just doesn't look like his old self yet.
Running backs
Favorable matchup: Sony Michel, New England Patriots (at Detroit Lions). It always seems to feel like rolling the dice when addressing Patriots running backs, but this is one matchups-driven dice roll I'm willing to take. The Lions' run defense has been awful through two games, especially between the tackles, with the NFL's worst yards-per-carry rate on those plays (7.1) and four such plays of 20-plus yards. That the team was missing defensive end Ezekiel Ansah in Week 2 (and might be this week) and lost cornerback Darius Slay again to concussion-related symptoms in Week 2 puts this unit in a particularly precarious spot, as the absence of either or both would only vault this matchup to the position's top of the list. Michel dominated early-down carries in the middle portion of the team's Week 2 game, a sign that his workload is only ramping up to the starter's role projected for him at the time of his selection in April's draft, and he was also the Patriots' most effective between-the-tackles runner last week (5.5 yards per carry). Even with 10 touches this week, he could provide you easy RB2 value, and note that he's available in 34.8 percent of ESPN leagues.
Unfavorable matchup: LeSean McCoy, Buffalo Bills (at Minnesota Vikings). It might seem easy to say, considering he'll probably be listed as questionable on the injury report due to cracked rib cartilage that threatens to cost him a game or two, but reports that McCoy has played through a similar issue previously and plans to play might convince his fantasy managers to chance starting him. One word: Don't. McCoy is sure to be limited and might play a snap count, and the Vikings represent the toughest matchup he could ask. This defense has afforded opposing running backs an average of 4.0 yards per carry without a single run greater than 16 yards and has shut them down on a pair of goal-line attempts this season.
Wide receivers
Favorable matchup: JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh Steelers (at Tampa Bay Buccaneers). Not that there was any doubt that you should start him this week, but if Smith-Schuster's bigger game than teammate Antonio Brown's in Week 2 took you by surprise, brace for the possibility of a repeat on Monday night. The Buccaneers haven't just been bad against opposing slot receivers; they've allowed 40 more PPR points to them than any other team in the league, and in fact, the 95.8 points allowed to opposing slot receivers are more than all but six teams have allowed to all receivers on the field (perimeter and slot) through two weeks. Losing cornerback Vernon Hargreaves III for the season only compounds matters. Smith-Schuster, incidentally, has scored at least 15 PPR fantasy points out of the slot in each of the first two weeks and has a league-high 39.5 of his 48.0 points when lined up there.
Unfavorable matchup: Corey Davis, Tennessee Titans (at Jacksonville Jaguars). While opposing No. 1 wide receivers have totaled 41.2 PPR fantasy points against the Jaguars through two weeks, tied for seventh in the league, let's not overlook that Odell Beckham Jr. (22.0) and Chris Hogan (19.2) were the identities of those two opponents, and Hogan benefited by not always lining up against star cornerback Jalen Ramsey. Davis probably won't be quite so lucky as the clear go-to option in the Titans' passing game, owner of 20 of the team's 58 targets (34.5 percent share). He'll find it difficult to find openings against this defense, especially with there still being some doubt about the team's quarterback situation, as Marcus Mariota (elbow) and Blaine Gabbert could again go right up until the kickoff with a lack of clarity as to who will start and play the bulk of the snaps.
Tight ends
Favorable matchup: George Kittle, 49ers (at Chiefs). As mentioned above, Marquise Goodwin might be absent or limited for Sunday's game, but even if he's good to go, Kittle is probably going to assume a larger role in this one, considering the strength of the matchup. The Chiefs struggled mightily to contain the Steelers' tight end duo of Jesse James and Vance McDonald in Week 2, and for the season, they've allowed a third-most-in-the-NFL 2.7 PPR fantasy points per target to the position. Kittle has been a go-to option for Garoppolo this season, catching a team-high seven passes on a team-high 13 targets, and that's unlikely to change this week.
Unfavorable matchup: Jack Doyle, Indianapolis Colts (at Philadelphia Eagles). Doyle's usage through two weeks has been of concern, as while he has 15 targets to teammate Eric Ebron's nine, 10 of those 15 came from his own side of the field. There's a bit of a timeshare going on at the position, and this matchup lowers Doyle's appeal, considering that the Eagles have afforded opposing tight ends just 11.3 PPR fantasy points per game since the beginning of the season, and that's despite facing Jared Cook, Evan Engram (twice), Jimmy Graham, Hunter Henry, Travis Kelce, Jordan Reed (twice) and Jason Witten (twice) in that time span.