The fantasy blocking breakdown series reviews the impact that run- and pass-blocking have on fantasy football performance, using methodologies detailed here.
This week's breakdown looks at how blocking is affecting LeSean McCoy and whether he can turn things around, how Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins are adjusting to the Texans' pass-blocking woes, an advanced metrics review that shows who should be getting more carries in the San Francisco backfield, and whether Blake Bortles' strong showing against New England is an anomaly or a sign of things to come.
The Bills' offense is a predictable, one-trick pony.
Fantasy managers had enough faith in LeSean McCoy headed into this season that he was selected with the 26th pick in ESPN fantasy drafts, on average. McCoy has not paid them back for this trust, as he has posted only 13.9 points through the first two weeks of the season ... and that's in PPR scoring.
It's tough to put much of the blame for that abysmal showing on McCoy, as he has had next-to-zero blocking help so far. McCoy has received a good blocking rate (GBR) of only 15.8 percent on his carries this season (GBR being a measure of how often an offense gives its ball carriers quality run blocking). To put that number into season-long perspective, consider that Bilal Powell ranked last among qualifying running backs in 2017 with a GBR of 31.6 percent. By contrast, the remainder of the Buffalo ball carriers have a GBR of 52.3 percent this season.
McCoy's GBR is so low because opponents are selling out to stop since they have no fear of any other aspect of the Bills' offense. There is very little that is likely to change this, and now his situation is complicated even further by reports that indicate he could be dealing with a rib injury. Add that to a road matchup against a tough Minnesota defense in Week 3 and fantasy managers may actually have to consider benching McCoy next week, even if he is healthy enough to play.
Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins added a huge new fantasy scoring element to offset the Texans' pass-blocking woes.
As noted in last week's fantasy blocking review, Watson tallied only 11 fantasy points in Week 1 in part because the Texans allowed the highest pass pressure rate (PPR) in the league (53.7 percent).
The Texans' offense didn't fare much better in that metric in Week 2, as their 43.6 percent PPR was the second-highest mark in that category at the end of the Sunday Week 2 contests. The key difference for Watson's fantasy managers is that the dismal pass blocking didn't stop him from racking up 22.8 points.
So why was he able to tally a much higher fantasy point total this time around? A bit of it can be attributed to 44 rushing yards, but most of it was finally getting into sync with DeAndre Hopkins on scramble plays.
Last season, Watson led the league in passing yards in Weeks 1-8 when he was under pressure on plays outside of the pocket (271). Hopkins accounted for only 28 of those yards and two of Watson's 16 completions outside of the pocket, so these two really didn't connect very often when Watson was attempting to create plays on the move.
This is something Watson and Hopkins almost certainly worked on this offseason, as they connected on three completions for 82 yards and a touchdown on passes outside of the pocket in the Week 2 contest against the Titans.
Houston's pass blocking may be a work in progress for a while, but with Watson and Hopkins now adding impact scramble plays to their vast repertoire of ways to rack up huge fantasy point totals, these two could meet or exceed their elite 2017 scoring form.
Matt Breida is making a strong case to take over as the 49ers' lead back.
San Francisco brought in Alfred Morris to serve as its lead back after Jerick McKinnon was lost for the season with an ACL tear, but Matt Breida is doing everything in his power to make the 49ers change their minds.
Both Morris and Breida have received good run blocking on 11 carries so far this season, but Breida has an incredibly strong 15.3-yard average in my good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric that measures how productive backs are on good blocking rush attempts. That total dwarfs the mediocre 6.5 GBYPA posted by Morris.
It should be noted that Morris tied for seventh in GBYPA last season with an 8.9-yard mark and thus could simply require more carries to return to last year's form. Having said this, let's not forget that Breida tied for 14th in GBYPA last year with an 8.4-yard mark. Since these two already have a nearly even split in offensive snaps this season (59 for Morris, 52 for Breida), it can already be said that this has now moved to a platoon setup. If Breida keeps posting GBYPA marks that are significantly higher than what Morris is posting, it is very possible Breida will take over as the lead back.
However this carry division turns out, it is obvious that Breida should be on a roster in 100 percent of ESPN leagues rather than the 61.9 percent roster rate he currently has.
The Jaguars now trust Blake Bortles to throw the ball even when their pass blocking doesn't hold up.
Jacksonville head coach Doug Marrone joked last year that he would prefer that Blake Bortles not even have to throw a single pass all season.
The game against the Patriots showed why Marrone is no longer of that mindset. Bortles faced the highest PPR (44 percent) and the third-highest blitz rate (48 percent) in Week 2 yet still completed 11 of 18 passes for a Week 2-leading 137 yards when under pass-rush pressure.
Maybe even more notable than the production is the fact that Bortles did not have an interception or even register a pass that was nearly intercepted but dropped. This is why Marrone has started trusting him more and will continue to do so.
Fantasy managers should also trust Bortles more, as his grit under pressure was a major factor in his being one of the six quarterbacks to post 30 or more points this past week, yet he has by far the lowest roster percentage of any of those quarterbacks (10.1 percent). Since Jacksonville has one of the most favorable pass-coverage schedules over the the rest of the season, fantasy managers would do well to raise his roster percentage by a significant amount this week.
Quick notes
The Falcons' pass blockers bounced back after a subpar Week 1 showing against Philadelphia to post the lowest PPR allowed in Week 2 (9.7 percent). That they were able to do this against a powerful Carolina pass rush resulted in Matt Ryan being able to tally 30.7 fantasy points in Week 2 and remind fantasy managers of the elite upside he has when this offense hits on all cylinders.
Denver tallied a 44.4 percent GBR in Week 2 that followed a 50 percent GBR in Week 1. These strong run-blocking metrics are part of why the Broncos have been able to give Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman a combined 52 carries this season and should continue to make both of them strong flex options for the foreseeable future.